The Russians are Coming! - TTG

What a difference a week makes. Only last Friday the white convoy rolled into Lugansk with humanitarian aid for the besieged inhabitants. It was the first overt sign of Russian support to the people of Novorossiya in quite a while. They were beginning to think Putin had forsaken them. This was never the case. The best statement on the support provided by Russia to the rebels is provided by Boris Rozhin in his blog "Colonel Cassad." In one posting he assures his readers that Russia has been providing all manner of support to the rebels, but it has done so covertly. Thats how it’s done in the real world and especially by the Russians, the masters of maskirovka.  TTG

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I've actually never made it a secret that the "military surplus store" exists and it does exist (which is why I never wrote that Russia fully dumped Donbass), providing various amounts of military and financial aid to the fighting detachments, depending on the will of those on whom these flows are locked in, and on those who are involved in their distribution. For some time now, the "military surplus store" has a seasonal sale and also hands out credits, which does not prevent the continuation of the official line of "Nope, nothing, and there was never anything." On the Internet you can prove whatever you want, the diplomats will continue to play ping-pong, which can last for weeks or months. There is certain work and there is its informational and diplomatical cover. Exactly the same way as it was in the Crimea. Because this game goes on and is accepted by all parties (it would seem that the masters of the junta already have a bunch of "evidence" of the work of the "military surplus store", but they are consistently treading water in the style of "But there is no way the militia could have exactly this." and receiving the already standard answers in the spirit of "Well, you never know where and what they are filming, you never really know what the militia have there, you have no evidence." Because this scheme is cyclic, it will continue for an arbitrarily long time, if it is necessary, then it will continue up until the capture of Kiev or even Lvov, Mr. Lavrov will walk up to the mike and tell you that Russia is no way involved in anything whatsoever. And officially it will be that way. And the fact that some blogger or a commentator wrote in their blog,... these are personal opinions of individuals. And try to tell me that this scheme is not working.

Actually the meaning of all these disputes is that in addition to the real war, the parties are also fighting between each other for the creation of the dominating informational picture so that the situation would be officially re-evaluated and in this case Russia would recognize at least some evidence of its participation in the war in the Donbass right now (and not sometime later, when the situation will already be played out).

Therefore, it does not matter which evidence, real or fake, the junta will present, in any case it will be denied, because those are the rules of the game. When this simple thing becomes clear to you, you will be much less excited by the next "revelations" from the junta side. In general, all of it can be simply ignored, because they are presented by the enemy, against whom there is a war to its destruction. From the point of view of the unfolding offensive operations south of Donetsk, it is actually an minor issue, because the catastrophe of the southern group of forces of the junta is coming up much faster than there will be any impact of the "evidence of the invasion of Russia". 

And regarding the "workers of military surplus store", the presence of which the junta is trying to prove, then officially there's nobody there, of course. And officially there won't be anybody there. Well, and now I think that you figured out everything and will ask stupid questions no longer. (Colonel Cassad)

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More and more glimpses of this support have been coming out. Last week in his news conference, which I consider to be a declaration of independence for the new nation of Novorossiya, Alexander Zakharchenko announced that 1,200 rebels returned from four months of training in Russia to fall in on a vast stock of captured equipment. He explained that his forces are getting a lot of logistical support from private sources and volunteer artillery experts from Samara were aiding the militia. Today he said that there are about 3,000 Russian volunteers fighting alongside the rebel forces. Russia, no doubt, provides intelligence support. I doubt anyone, including the combatants, have a better grasp of the true situation in Ukraine. I have always assumed Russia is providing a steady supply of artillery and rocket ammunition for the very effective rebel artillery units. I also would not be surprised to learn that some of the tanks and artillery the rebels picked up were left there by “Father Christmas.” At the request of Pavel Gubarev, the former leader of the Donbass People’s Militia, Russia helped establish a coordination center in Krasnodon. That sounds like the coordination centers we recently set up in Iraq.

Neocons and R2P harpies (or should I say pigeons) have been screaming bloody murder about the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory of the last few days. They cannot imagine that the rebels, who Kiev has repeatedly assured the world are on the verge of total defeat, are capable of first blunting the massive Ukie assault on Ilovaisk and then going on the offensive to the gates of Mariupol all in a matter of days. I find it quite believable given the fluid nature of combat over the last few months. A good account of the events that led to the rebels standing at the gates of Mariupol is told by Rozhin. It’s worth a read for its clarity. The military situation reminds me of the battle of Gazala waged south of Tobruk for several weeks in May and June 1942. Rommel feinted to the north then led his Afrika Korps south to swing around the British defenses. As is common in military operations, things did not go exactly as planned and the battle was an often confused and close run thing. What finally assured Rommel’s victory was his belief that his forces were better trained, better organized and better led at all levels. This stood him well in the confused and fluid battle. The army of Novorossiya displays the same qualities.     

Today Obama said, “There is no doubt that this is not a homegrown, indigenous uprising in eastern Ukraine. The separatists are backed, trained, armed, financed by Russia.” Russia is actively supporting Novorossiya, but that does not mean it is not  a homegrown, indigenous uprising. Does the support given to Washington by the French mean that our War of Independence not a homegrown, indigenous uprising?  Kiev has repeatedly vowed to wipe out the Moskals. What choice did the Moskals have but to take up arms and resist.

The cacophony of alarming declarations is almost overwhelming. Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said in a Twitter post: "The new columns of Russian tanks and armor crossing into Ukraine indicates a Russian-directed counter-offensive may be underway." In the face of all this noise, it was heartening to hear Obama say, "We are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem. What we're doing is to mobilize the international community to apply pressure on Russia.” Obama will visit Estonia before attending a NATO summit in Wales next Thursday and Friday. He intends to "reaffirm our unwavering commitment to the defense of our NATO allies." Let’s hope he can resist the whispers of all the Grima Wormtongues that surround him between now and the NATO summit.

Putin has recently stepped up his public support for Novorossiya. He told Poroshenko that he will not dictate terms to the rebels and that Poroshenko would have to talk to the Donbass representatives directly. I don’t think there will be a deal behind Novorossiya’s back. In a presidential address today, Putin asked the militia forces to open a humanitarian corridor to allow the encircled Ukrainian forces to cross the Russian border. That would save the rebels the time and effort of having to reduce these pockets themselves and free up those militia forces for offensive operations elsewhere. The rebels have expressed their support for this initiative. Putin also said he would be sending more white convoys and would coordinate these convoys directly with the rebels rather than with Kiev. He also congratulated the Novorossiya militia on their accomplishments. On a firm, but conciliatory note, he added, “I once again call on the Ukrainian authorities to immediately stop military actions, cease fire, sit down at the negotiating table with Donbass representatives and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively via peaceful means.”    

If this was a chess game, Putin is in a position to checkmate the West in half a dozen moves. Let us hope the West can see this and quietly concede rather than act as a flock of pigeons. A ceasefire and negotiations is far preferable to toying with the possibility of nuclear war. - TTG

The painting above is “Defend Sevastopol” by Vasily Igorevich Nesterenko done in 2005. I think it evokes many elements and much of the spirit of both Russia and Novorossiya or as David Habakkuk might say, the Putinistas and the Strelkovites.

TTG

Comments

[b]

Two remarkable pieces by the U.S. sponsored Kiev Post

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/western-ukrainian-fighters-leave-war-cite-poor-support-362472.html
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-regroups-as-russia-attacks-362479.html

Ukraine has lost the war. With some support the rebels could now march up to Kiev without meeting much resistance.

Sending those battalions and brigades without protected logistic support deep into enemy land resulted in several defeats and now the already low moral is completely gone. Those people just want to go home. "Make peace already".

The next chapter may be a march of the Neo-nazi groups on Kiev. "From the spirits that I called ..."

[Ishmael Zechariah]

TTG,

Thanks for the update. I had logged in hoping to find an analysis from you given the very rapid developments. Do you think the Clausewitzian tipping point has been reached?

Ishmael Zechariah

BTW: Russia was represented at a very junior level at tayyip's inauguration in Ankara, TR. Ditto by the USA, China, etc. Interesting datum.

[VietnamVet]

TTG

I appreciate the overview.

From the beginning it was clear to me that Russia could not allow a hostile enemy to seize its borderland. In fact, as soon as the American Civil War was concluded, the French were encouraged to leave Mexico. The Kiev Putsch was the start of a new Cold War. Still, I was shocked that Russia wasn’t more aggressive in its defense; allowing the conflict to spread right to its borders. Then things changed suddenly overnight. If Russia had actually invaded it would be with an army of tanks and air cover. Instead, the Junta shot its wad.

Tonight ABC News drew the red arrow of the “Russian Invasion” down the coast to Crimea; showed Ukrainian civilian war casualties for the first time and cut to the President saying “This is not a homegrown, indigenous uprising in eastern Ukraine….It is not in the cards for us to see a military confrontation between Russia and the United States in this region." Just, maybe, a no fly zone won’t be imposed over Ukraine, Poland won’t sent in the troops, Anders “Fogh of War” Rasmussen will depart NATO as scheduled on October 1st, and I will wake up for a few more tomorrows. But, I will never forget the contempt the White House has for us, the lies they told, and risks they took so a few rich psychopaths could frack gas in Ukraine.

[confusedponderer]

On of the marvels in contemporary hypochrisy is the US selective outrage over the Russians arming the separatists when 'arming the moderate rebels' in Syria and beyond is precisely the same thing?

So Russia is offering Novorussian rebels sanctuary, support and training?

So does Turkey to Al Nusra and ISIS. So does the US to the Free Syrian Army. First it was repurposed Libyan stocks of weapons, and of late it became - if not directly from the US then from Turkey or Saudi Arabia with tacit US approval - TOW missiles? Ah, that's ok. FSA good. Assad, shelling his own people (!!!), very bad.

Russia discreetly supplied arms and munitions to Novorussian rebels? Totally not ok. Ukraine good, even when they are "legitmately shelling cities hiding terrorists". Novorussian separatists, Putin very bad.

So: The outrage! The outrage! Invasion! By Russia! Indeed, the Russians are coming! Rette sich wer kann!

My late Grandmother told me that in the first World War, in East Prussia they had to flee the village because the Russians were coming, about two hundred thousand in fact. That was the Russians coming for real. She told me that they could see the Russians moving at the rim of the forrest, but then along came Hindenburg and crushed them at Tannenberg!

Inaccuracies may be forgiven due to her young age at the time, and her advanced age when telling the story. She lost an elder brother in that battle.

Tannenberg, just like my grandmother's place of birth, Regitten, now Rogity, is today part of Poland. Borders shift, an injustice for those on the losing side of the shaping process for sure, but history isn't just or fair and never asked her if she wanted to stay when the Russians came around a second time in 1945.

In this case, Novorussia came on the losing side, when after the desintegration of the Soviet Union an arbitray administrative act by Chruschev cast a national border between Noviorussia and Russia.

What was that about the rigth of self-determination of the people?

Apparently, it was necessary that Kosovio had to become an independent state so that the poor Kosovars could be free from Serbian persecution, and the US could build Cam Bondsteel. Near the AMBO pipeline carrying caspian oil to Europe. Anyway. Indeed, and independent they became.

Just, it is somewhat curious that we have something like this today:

http://news.yahoo.com/top-ex-kosovo-fighters-incriminated-organ-stealing-warcrimes-002216214.html

Maybe the Serbs had some reason for cracking down on the Free Syrian Amry of the Clinton days, the thoroughly moderate KLA?

IMO Kosovo was one of the first post-modern wars, the case for which is being made with a generous dose of baloney.

[Sigmund Elgarøy]

Ah, the clear, cool air of SST! "The shit" was on, indeed.

As a Norwegian, it will be interesting to follow Stoltenberg when he succeeds Fogh Rasmussen.

[walrus]

Thank you for your clear thinking TTG. Let's hope someone in Washington agrees with you.

[Patrick Bahzad]

The one thing that the NeoCon group in the US administration and the ultranationalists in Kiev are going to hear a lot, probably already are is "told you so" ... Don't start a fight, you can't win isn't something that they seem to have learnt, what a shame, needless bloodshed just to forcefully push one's interests under the disguise of peace and democracy for Ukraine.
Diagnosis is: extreme hubris, generated by sense of total victory, resulting in distorted view of reality and balance of power in the region.
So rather than seeing things as they are, they're inventing a reality that suits their "weltanschauung" ... I'm afraid Putin is much more settled in reality than they are ! Now he just has to be careful his proxies in the DPR don't get carried away themselves (i know there's an ongoing debate about how much control Putin has over them, but I think as an organisation the "Novarossija" forces are Russia's proxies in this war).
Lots of head scratching as well, as to what the Separatists next move will be. Push for Mariupol ? Or send their "SRG" groups behind government lines elsewhere ? I suspect more of a combined push of smaller groups in various directions, rather than a assault type operation on Mariupol, which might come at a later stage. But spreading the government forces thin, forcing them to operate in several areas at the same time might be a good option, as the ability of Kiev to lead combined and synchronized military engagements is close to zero. But no doubt, new gear and equipment is being flown into Kiev as we speak ... Not sure it's gonna make a difference.
TTG, you mention the battle of Gazala as a tactical comparison. To me, this reminds me even more of the policy of Pakistan's ISI in relation to the Afghan Taleben while NATO was operating there. Saying this because of analogy of Russian involvement in DPR militas.
I remember that the US at first suspected rogue elements in ISI of taking part in Taleban action against US and NATO troops, while in fact it was a sort of ISI within the ISI that was dictating the pace.
Only difference here is that in Russia there is real government oversight over what's happening on the ground, even though Putin looks the other way and certainly is not in the picture as to exact details of the involvement of Russian forces or soldiers having taken a leave of absence to go and help out their "borthers" in Donbass.

[William Herschel]

It is growing increasingly difficult to ignore the possibility that the CIA is an entirely independent cadre of war profiteers and narcotics dealers (cf. Afghanistan).

Just exactly in whose interest are the events in Ukraine? The United States'? How can that possibly be? The United States, publicly, is playing the victim. So, publicly, these events are not in the interest of the United States. Clandestinely? There I leave the floor to TTG.

[turcopolier]

All

The developing Ukraine combat situation brings to mind numerous conversation I had with Michael Handel on the subject of the "culminating point" of a battle or campaign when I was his student at the War College. There is also an article I wrote for "Parameters" on the same subject. the inspiration for both things was Clausewitz' well developed observation that an offensive pressed past the point at which the negatives in the operation outweigh the positives (the "culminating point") is an almighty big gamble. In this case the Ukie government seems to have driven its fragile forces forward seeking an early total defeat of the rebels without regard for the lack of depth it possessed in strategic reserves and the unprotected state of the logistical tails that sustained the spearheads. As is often the case in such an effort the situation is fraught with the danger of a sudden reversal of fortune and that has occurred. It takes an inspirational commander of genius like Rommel supported by something like the General Staff cell in his headquarters to "pull off" something like the Gazala victory. The Ukies don't have Rommel. They gambled and lost. pl

[Charles Dekle]

VV,
RE "But, I will never forget the contempt the White House has for us, the lies they told, and risks they took so a few rich psychopaths could frack gas in Ukraine."

It would seem that that after buying the bulk of US political leadership on both sides that the Koch brothers and their cohorts decided to start a war when they could not buy Putin. Their mistake was not realizing that Putin speaks softly but has a deadly bite.

Hopefully, the bumbling interference in foreign policy will not lead to something more serious like WW III. Maybe they think that their billions will save them in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange with Russia.

Regards,

[Charles Dekle]

CP,

The Serbian bombing campaign is why I could never support Hilary Clinton for President. Once she takes hold of the reins of power, we can look forward to a storm of bombs dropped on any and all who dare to act in their own interest without her permission. She is a Neocon in rhetoric and actions, in my opinion.

Regards,

[Charles Dekle]

TTG,
Thank you for the insight and especially for the chessboard strutting pigeon metaphor. It is too true, sadly.
Kind regards,

[Patrick Bahzad]

Agree with that analysis Colonel. Ukie government troops had absolutely no strategic reserves, and had concentrated al their combat troops in a small area to try and annihilate the Seperatist groups. That way a huge vacuum formed in their 'hinterland', almost empty of any troops with an ability for rapid manouevering and fire power projection.
What amazes me the most, is that the writing was on the walls for days already, yet this strategic shortcoming was never corrected ... Really tells you a lot about the conditions under which the Kiev troops are operating.
On another scale, also comparable with the campaign of France in 1940 ... Once the Germans had broken through the French lines, the non existence of any strategic reserve on the French side meant the war was lost. It can be that quick ... just a matter of days.
In the current conflict, the government forces would be well advised to try and regroup behind new lines (what the german strategists call "Frontbegradigung") before they're put in a really desperate position.
The only good news for them is that even though the momentum is now with the DPR, the separatists have neither the means nor the will to follow up on their recent tactical gains. They're playing a political card in this war, while Kiev only had a military "strategy", with no plan B.
What Kiev will do now is to call even louder for NATO's involvement ahead of the NATO summit, and for full membership, which they won't get.

[Babak Makkinejad]

TTG:

I must say that I am pity all these people who were evidently so easily could be manipulated by foreigners to advance their geopolitical games.

A Lithuanian colleague told me last week that Western people do not understand Russians; their capacity to endure hardship.

Now, he could take a holiday with his family all the way to Munich - driving his car - visiting cities in Poland etc.

All of that would be gone in the blink of an eye; Lithuania would be the first casualty of a generalized war between the Russian Federation and the West.

The Western policy makers in US, UK, Canada, France will go home to their lives at the end of the day - these people will be collecting the broken pieces - in Ukraine, in Syria, in Libya and now in Iraq.

[Babak Makkinejad]

This like what in calculus is called an inflection point where the second derivative is zero?

And the curve could go up or down?

[pbj]

Patrick Bahzad,

First of all, thanks for your overview of Ukrainian oligarchs, under the comments in Walrus's most recent article.

Regarding next moves: I really have no business making guesses like this, but I can't help but think Akhmetov will work something out with the NR forces to keep the fighting out of Maruipol itself, as he has previously done.

Actually I think his presence is really interesting. For business reasons, he has to maintain connections to both Russia and Ukraine, and I think he personally has the resources and clout to make it so. So for one thing, any kind of "siege of Maruipol" would be meaningless.

I wish I knew what he is up to. I recently read PR from the Akhmetov Foundation about sending aid and his electric company DTEK fixing up infrastructure in Donetsk that was destroyed during Ukraine's offensive. Do you (or anyone) have an opinion about that?

Also, do you know which of the oligarchs was supposed to take over what used to be Yanukovich's turf? And is there a place to get more information about geographic boundaries of the various oligarch's control?

Thanks!

[bth]

Col. does the US is provide the Ukraine with live satellite feeds and targeting information? And if not isn't it time to start?

Mariupol seems vital to the Ukraine and Russia's plan to link through to the Crimea.

All sides have flanks and culmination points.

[confusedponderer]

To me bombing Kosovo was a 'Sündenfall' also, in which sadly the German government was complicit.

I recall Germanys then Secretary Defence Scharping lying on TV when he presented old recon footage from Kosovo (the images hat - old - date stamps on them, which a reporter was able to read) as proof of current Serbian crimes at the time, and he even had a name for it, Operation Horseshoe.

At the time I wrote a letter to the editor of a military aligned journal which I kept reading after I left the army when I my conscription ended. It was published on a full page, and in it I criticised the editor for stating in an editorial that 'obviously the war was legal'.

I lined out why I doubted that and that, by a conservative legal standard, there was no case to intervene, since the established legal criteria for intervention (Kosovo wasn't even an *inter*national conflict, but an *intra*national one) were not met, and that that was the probably reason why the UN security council didn't utter a mandate.

I added that by that conservative look the intervention would constitute the crime of aggression and would violate Serbian sovereignty, so that speaking of 'obvious legality' was something of a stretch.

And as for Hillary, she just scares me. All the nuts who concocted Obamas's foreign policy blunders are her creatures.

[bth]

Col., there are lots of culmination points. Here is one for consideration.

"... Tensions with Russia and the new cold war along with sanctions and embargoes are likely to have significant effects on the Russian economy, but the low price of oil is likely to have a larger effect. Russia has an oil problem. The country is heavily dependent on oil tax revenue to fill its coffers, and trouble is brewing given today’s low price for Russian crude. According to Reuters, Russia’s budget is based on the assumption of an average oil price of $114 per barrel. It is nowhere near that high right now, however. Sitting below $100 for the first time in over a year, the price of Ural crude has fallen $15 in less than one month. Keep in mind that 50% of Russia’s budget revenue comes from oil. If the price bounces back, there is no story here. If, however, there is a sustained period of low oil prices it would be a major blow to the country’s economy."

http://www.fxempire.com/news/economic-news/low-oil-prices-could-crush-russian-economy

[confusedponderer]

Typo: "old recon footage from Kosovo" should read: "old recon footage from Bosnia as being from Kosovo"

[bth]

Two years ago I would have said NATO was finished, America was packing it in and the Europeans were on there own. Then Putin revives NATO and begins to help it expand. Interesting take in Finland and Sweden. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-27/finland-upgrades-nato-agreement-after-condemning-russian-tactics.html

[Patrick Bahzad]

@ pbj:

Regarding your questions, I guess anybody who could give you a reliable answer should be guaranteed a senior job in any high level think tank or private intelligence group ... And I'm afraid giving you something with even a 50 % chance of reliability is way out of my reach.
All I can do, is give you my opinion, sort of gut feeling, based on what has happened so far and what's in the pipes:
Akhmetov certainly is one of the people who could contribute bridging the gap with the East. However, his interests in fixing Donetsk are related to his will to secure a durable power base there and make sure his companies can resume production without too much delay once the situation deescalates. Wether his regional and personal interests (and his money) can override the interests of the conflicting parties remains to be seen. I don't know exactly what the Separatists next move is gonna be. Globally it looks like they want to secure as much of the border area to Russia (for obvious reasons), disrupt Ukrainian supply lines by moving SRG groups into the Kharkov, Zaporojie and Dniepropetrovsk area from where the Ukrainian equipment comes from, and "reduce" the pockets of ukrainian government resistance in the Donbass. A push for the lost city of Slaviansk would also be a high value symbolic victory, as well as reestablishing territorial continuity with Lugansk. So you see the options and possibilities are manyfold and the talk about Mariupol has been so hyped up in recent days that i doubt it is their intention to actually take the city. More likely they wanted Kiev to station more troops in that area, so that Ukie lines would be spread even thinner elsewhere. So Akhmetov probably doesn't even need to cut a deal at this point. Besides, he canno't appear as a traitor to the ultranationalists in Kiev or he's done ... so he has to walk a thin line too, despite all his wealth.
Yanukovitch was mostly controlling the government apparatus. So those in charge of the various ministries and administrations have probably taken over his schemes, even though the economy is so bad at the moment, they can't sqeeze a lot of money out of it. More likely, they will try to get their hands on some of the financial help that is being promised by the West and the IMF.
As for boundaries, they are very blurred. Most of these people operate from a local power base, but have interests and alliances with partners and corporations elsewhere too, both nationally and internationally.

[ISL]

Dear Colonel, could you link the article, or perhaps provide the citation so SST-ers can find it? The Cauldrons seem to be a classic case of taking advantage of the overextending you mentioned.

Most interestingly, Strelkov, and others in the Novorussian command (via Saker), actually discuss their strategy in a manner that assumes the audience is intelligent and interested.

Thanks

[toto]

What I gather from this long piece is that the Russians have indeed invaded, and their denials bear no relationship with reality.

Finally, some agreement between "Russophiles" and the "mainstream"!

More seriously, Putin has apparently decided that Western threats of massive economic retaliation were just bluff, so he called their bluff and went for a full land-grab a la Georgian.

Was he right? We'll see.

[turcopolier]

ISL

http://slavyangrad.org/2014/08/27/the-southern-front-catastrophe-august-27-2014/

It was embedded in the text. pl