IS Diary - 10 August 2014

The level of uninformed maundering in the media today concerning IS is impressive:

The civvies on the tube "go on" about the need for diplomacy and the need for an inclusive government in Baghdad.  The civvies profess to believe that IS was somehow defeated or frustrated at "the gates" of Baghdad and are now milling about north and west of Baghdad frustrated by their inability to capture the city.  The civvies think that IS will wait for an inclusive government to be formed and for re-training/re-equiping of the ISF to take place.  The civvies want to believe that a handful of tactical airstrikes has halted an IS advance towards Irbil and its important airfield.  They ignore the awkward truth that hitting a few isolated positions in the field will not stop a determined armored force that keeps moving.

Another awkward truth is the fact that getting the tens of thousands of Yazidis down off their mountain will require creation of a land bridge to Kurdish Syria or Turkey.  (It is just too far to expect too be able to move all those civilians to the Kurdish mountsins in the east.)  To build such a land bridge would require the participation of thousands of soldiers with heavy equipment, functioning logistics and lots of air support.  Who would provide that, the pesh merga?  Not!  They lack the men, the equipment and the air support.

US air is still flying off an aircraft carrier in the Gulf.  This is very far away and the distance, in itself, lmits the amount of air power that can be projected.  It limits it a lot!  If the administration is serious about the Yazidis or the Kurds they will have to start operating from Batman and Incirlik in Turkey as well as  Irbil and Suleymaniyah in the KRG or start using heavy bombers like the B-52.

As I have previously written the present scale of US air attacks are mere "pin pricks."  The idea of them frightens American and European journalists but IS troops will be unimpressed at this scale of attacks. 

The notion that IS is somehow stymied in regard to Baghdad is silly.  They are consolidating control over the area they conquered and establishing governance in the same area.

Kurdistan beckons to them as an objective because it is an obvious gateway for the entry of US troops into IS's northern flank.

IS is receivng reinforcements from among jihadis across the world.  I presume that they get into IS territory through Turkey.

When they are done in the north they will return to the problem of eliminating the present Iraqi government.  I doubt if they plan to occupy the Shia south of Iraq but the destruction of what remains of Iraqi government central authority is certainly possible

If they succeed in doing that much, Jordan, Lebanon and the Gulf will beckon.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/09/us-iraq-security-usa-ammunition-idUSKBN0G82BP20140809

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kurdish-forces-regroup-on-frontlines-after-us-airstrikes/2014/08/09/a707afa9-1cd1-40f5-adad-4858b667cf4a_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fighters-abandoning-al-qaeda-affiliates-to-join-islamic-state-us-officials-say/2014/08/09/c5321d10-1f08-11e4-ae54-0cfe1f974f8a_story.html 

 

Comments

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

I doubt that they have given up that goal. pl

[Thomas]

CP

"I observe that the 'genocide chick', Samantha Powers, who wrote the proverbial book on genocide, is silent. What, no responsibility to protect Christians, Yezidis or Alawites?"

The Mommie Tzars only believe in the Right to Protect the select.

The Yezidis made the cut because they are on the 24/7 visuals providing bad PR.

[FB Ali]

This is a very simplistic (and wrong) view of the aims of the IS and the views of the Muslim polity. Any attack on Mecca would cause a huge negative reaction among Muslims against the IS (or any attacker who defiled the sanctity of the site).

The IS leadership appears to be far too sophisticated to attempt any such silliness. For them both Damascus and Baghdad are very much more attractive targets because of their historic symbolism as the seats of the earlier Caliphate.

[Fred]

Groucho,

"It seems to be a genetic and psychological issue-- ideology, genetics, psychopathy."

What you want is a scientific cure for religious belief. Good luck with that.

[Fred]

Ahor,

"Can a newly organized state with stolen weapons really mount something like that?"

Those weapons were captured in combat. The speed of ISIS success is its own best recruiting effort; at the same time it is demoralizing their opponents. This appears more like the speed with which Islam spread in the 7th century than anything else. What opposed combat force stands between them and Baghdad? What other organized force stands in their way in the Mid-East?

[turcopolier]

ahor

"Ahor?" What is that, something from Gulliver's Travels? "Stolen?" What is that, propaganda? "Captured?" "Booty?" "Spoils of War?" Yes. "Stolen." No.

When Stonewall captured the Army of the Potomac's supply base at Manassas Junction, did he steal the mountains of Yankee supplies? I think not. pl

[Ahor]

I agree with you that the cadre behind the Islamic state are very sophisticated.

However, they don't seem to care about offending the vast majority of Muslims with their systematic desecration campaign in Iraq.

They don't appear concerned that beheadings, crucifixions, and threats of Genocide might offend most Moslems, especially when carried out in the name of Islam.

We are dealing with very sophisticated people capable of doing things that we cannot understand. Communists were once willing to do similarly inconceivable things.

@Col,

Ahor is from Koestler's The Arrow in The Blue.

[turcopolier]

Ahor

They don't care about that. They think they are "on a mission from God," like the Blues Brothers. Nothing else matters. Your mind must have been rotted by the social sciences. pl

[DH]

How careful are they? Would it be wise on their part to take Iraqi Kurdistan for security purposes, then lay off Baghdad (which would stir up Iran) and western Syria (which would stir up the West), so they can consolidate their gains?

Would allowing them their own 'country' alleviate their desire for jihad to the degree they would be too busy infighting?

[confusedponderer]

"Remember 90% of Kurds are Sunni"

And that was Erdogan's angle on then: Look, forget your ethnicity - aren't we all Sunnis? They remained somewhat unpersuaded.