An Eventful Day in Novorossiya - TTG

Hear me now                                                                             Oh thou bleak and unbearable world,                                           Thou art base and debauched as can be;                                 And a knight with his banners all bravely unfurled                 Now hurls down his gauntlet to thee!  

Maybe I’m being a bit too emotional quoting Don Quixote in "The Man of LaMancha"… especially for a supposedly hard hearted empath. Well, too bad. I’m not dead yet and there are things in the world that still stir my blood. This is one of them.

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MOSCOW, August 14, 21:41 /ITAR-TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday urged the warring sides in Ukraine to cease fire immediately in order to guarantee the security of the humanitarian convoy for the eastern regions of Ukraine. “Now that the multifaceted efforts to settle all aspects of the initiative to provide humanitarian assistance to the population of the south-east of Ukraine has entered the final stage, the Foreign Ministry of Russia is strongly urging the warring sides to cease fire immediately,” the statement said. 

“This must be done in order to guarantee the security of the upcoming humanitarian mission. A ceasefire is required by the appalling situation in the South-East of Ukraine,” the ministry said. It also called on the warring parties in Ukraine to show political will and alleviate the suffering of people in the south-east of the country. The passage of the humanitarian convoy to the south-eastern regions of Ukraine will be a test of adequacy for Kiev, Alexander Brechalov, a Public Chamber member, said.

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I think we are seeing the beginning of Putin’s end game for Novorossiya and Ukraine. He’s been quiet lately and downright conciliatory in his recent public speech in Crimea. No threats. No demands. No red lines. He just set a convoy of humanitarian aid in motion. He went through the motions of negotiating with Kiev for the passage of this convoy through Kharkov on the way to Lugansk. As expected, Kiev denied entrance of the convoy into Ukraine. No problem. The convoy headed south towards a border crossing controlled by the rebels. As of last report, it’s camped within twenty kilometers of the border only a few hours away from Lugansk.  

Shortly after the humanitarian convoy encamped, a Guardian reporter traveling with the convoy watched a column of over twenty BTR-80s and accompanying support vehicles cross the border into Ukraine. Is this true or did the reporter just get turned around on the steppes of Russia? Is this the beginning of a full scale invasion? No, my guess is that this column, if it did actually across the border, is just advanced security for the humanitarian convoy. They reportedly went in with headlights on and in full view of Western reporters. This is Putin hurling down his gauntlet. Moscow is warning Kiev not to interfere with this humanitarian effort, a test of adequacy as Brechalov said. If any artillery or air attacks are made to disrupt the aid effort, I have no doubt the offending units will suffer swift and complete retribution at the hands of Russian forces. Kiev is right royally screwed.  

In the last 24 hours, Donetsk has been hit by GRAD, SS-21 ballistic missiles and airburst white phosphorus rounds. However, the rebels have blunted junta attempts to enter or surround the city. Pavel Gubarev’s militia group retook the Marinovka border crossing with Russia. A direct road from Russia to Donetsk is now open. This also closes a pocket with two more junta brigades surrounded. I’ve seen a twitter report of a company of Russian tanks moving north from the Marinovka crossing towards Donetsk. This can’t be a full scale invasion either. It may be just enough to keep this pocket closed. 

The other big news of the last 24 hours is the status and whereabouts of Gospodin Strelkov. Rumors have been swirling for the last two days. Kiev said he was severely wounded and in Sevastopol or dead. Others claimed he was fired as Defense Minister and fleeing back to Moscow. The truth seems to be that he is no longer the Defense Minister, either fired or resigned. His current status is unknown, but he is reported to have been reassigned to some other duty in the DPR government. Perhaps he is now a field commander rather than a minister just as Gubarev, the former President of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, just led the rebel assault at Marinovka.  

I sense the junta forces are reaching a Clauswitzian culminating point and the Novorossiyan rebels sense the same thing. Something big is in the wind. As my old mentor and good friend, Master Sergeant Albert H. Rivers would say in such a situation, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”

TTG

Comments

[Misanthrope]

If there is a deal being negotiated, it better be a good one. I don't think the separatists are in the mood for any kind of whitewash:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-couple-of-short-pointers-about.html?showComment=1408178498660#c8589919278530082092

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-couple-of-short-pointers-about.html?showComment=1408206490237#c8951817243019166803

[Fred]

FB,

So the neocon/R2P concern about Ukraine is really a cover of the effort to sabotage the Russian Federation's efforts to modernize its military? At least that's the way it appears to me.

[Thomas]

The Cookie Mamma's Coup is showing signs of crumbling.

[Madhu]

Thank you so much! Come to think of it, I do remember reading about something like that, at the Kyiv Post site maybe?

That last bit makes sense, that Kiev tried multiple things at once and didn't realize their shortfall.

Yet, I remain irritated with the way in which this is all portrayed in the West, and in particular, American media and the grandstanding around all of it, and the highjacking of this crisis for other ends.

And apologies to TTG, I don't know how I missed that, it's as clear as day at the top.

So, this sort of thing always interests me:

"The EU Border Assistance Mission to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine was established in response to the joint letter from the Presidents of Moldova and Ukraine dating from 2 June 2005 calling for additional EU support for capacity building for border management, including customs, on the whole Moldova-Ukraine border, including the border between Ukraine and the separatist Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, because the Moldovan border authorities are unable to be present there.

On 7 October 2005, a Memorandum of Understanding on the Border Assistance Mission was signed between the European Commission and the governments of Moldova and Ukraine. The official opening ceremony of the EU Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine took place on 30 November 2005."

http://eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and-operations/moldova-and-ukraine-border-mission/index_en.htm

I don't remember if this has been posted around here before? All this money spent, and yet, here we are....

[David Habakkuk]

Thomas,

The crisis appears to have been defused. According to a Ria Novosti report:

'"We were informed that all of our brothers had been released, and the issue of Evdokimov [First Deputy Interior Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Evdokimov] is now being approached by the Cabinet. We very much hope to see him resigned. We understand that though this victory is a small one, it is still a victory. So, given the situation at the frontline, we remain at our posts," Yarosh said in a Youtube video on Sunday.'

(See http://en.ria.ru/world/20140817/192093814/Right-Sector-Not-Going-to-Attack-Kiev-Some-of-Requirements.html .)

This suggests that a complex power battle is still going on behind the scenes, with the Interior Ministry a principal focus. Whether one can conclude that Yarosh was overplaying his hand, and his bluff has been called, seems unclear. My guess is that he did.

What may be far more significant is that the position of Evdokimov looks as though it is certainly critical, and may still be unresolved.

If we understood what he stands for, and how he relates to different groups in Kiev and in the West, we might better understand what is happening in Ukraine.

[David Habakkuk]

Fred,

It seems likely that is part of the picture.

However, that brings out the element of anarchic chaos in all this.

If indeed the Ukrainian nationalists win out, then one of the things that will happen is that the industry in the South and East -- both defence related and civilian -- will lose its markets in Russia.

This will crucify the area, and also whichever oligarchs control that industry. That industry is simply not going to be competitive elsewhere, in any realistic time-frame.

This is probably part of the background to the behind-the-scenes moves which are likely to be going on at the moment.

As regards yourselves and ourselves, we will then be in the position that we have raised expectations that if Ukraine makes the 'European choice' it will end up like Poland.

For this and other reasons, we have got our hands firmly tied to this tar-baby.

I wish I confidence that Obama, or Cameron, or even indeed Merkel, had some of Br'er Rabbit's cunning, and could think of a way of getting us out of this.

[Thomas]

David,

That piece is holding together for now but the as the link below shows the Ukrainian Army is getting fed up with the arrogant incompetence of their leaders.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-very-telling-video-on-ukie-assault.html

On the morning of July 17th I was watching CCTV news where a Ukrainian Deputy Defense official was telling the wives and mothers of the troops caught in the Cauldron that everything was fine when an evacuated member of the unit on convalescent leave told the man he was full of it as he just spoke by cell phone with his friends stuck there. The official stood there dumbfounded. A few hours later that story was buried by the significant event of that day. And here we are a month later and no follow up on MH17 still.

The cookie is going to crumble but will it be the catalyst to bring this madness in Western Leadership to an end? Well, your prophetic namesake warned there would be days like these.

[different clue]

Haralambos,

Why was depleted uranium ever used to begin with? Is/was it cheaper and more available than tungsten?

[Fred]

David,

At least ole Br'er Rabbit knew which briar patch he wanted to be thrown into. Our political trio keeps stumbling into self created ones.

[confusedponderer]

It would be one off the usual bitter ironies of history if the Galizian peasants of western Ukraine, in their blind, ethocentric hostility to all things Russian (and then Polish and then Jewish), dragged down the industrialised Russophone East with them.

If they go on like that, they may end up pracically de-industrilaising the economically far more powerful East by denying the East Ukrainian economy its primary market of industrial products - Russia.

Ukraine would end up exacerbating it's problems as a economic basket case, and have no one to blame but themselves, and those idiots on America who had been egging them on (take Biden).

That would be a plan as cunning as anything the wise men of Gotham could think up.

And all the while, the IMF would preside over the fire sales of these smouldering remains to western Multinationals, or a new wave of Ukrainian cleptocrats.

The horror.