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15 August 2014

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Misanthrope

If there is a deal being negotiated, it better be a good one. I don't think the separatists are in the mood for any kind of whitewash:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-couple-of-short-pointers-about.html?showComment=1408178498660#c8589919278530082092

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-couple-of-short-pointers-about.html?showComment=1408206490237#c8951817243019166803

Fred

FB,

So the neocon/R2P concern about Ukraine is really a cover of the effort to sabotage the Russian Federation's efforts to modernize its military? At least that's the way it appears to me.

Thomas

The Cookie Mamma's Coup is showing signs of crumbling.

Madhu

Thank you so much! Come to think of it, I do remember reading about something like that, at the Kyiv Post site maybe?

That last bit makes sense, that Kiev tried multiple things at once and didn't realize their shortfall.

Yet, I remain irritated with the way in which this is all portrayed in the West, and in particular, American media and the grandstanding around all of it, and the highjacking of this crisis for other ends.

And apologies to TTG, I don't know how I missed that, it's as clear as day at the top.

So, this sort of thing always interests me:

"The EU Border Assistance Mission to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine was established in response to the joint letter from the Presidents of Moldova and Ukraine dating from 2 June 2005 calling for additional EU support for capacity building for border management, including customs, on the whole Moldova-Ukraine border, including the border between Ukraine and the separatist Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, because the Moldovan border authorities are unable to be present there.

On 7 October 2005, a Memorandum of Understanding on the Border Assistance Mission was signed between the European Commission and the governments of Moldova and Ukraine. The official opening ceremony of the EU Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine took place on 30 November 2005."

http://eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and-operations/moldova-and-ukraine-border-mission/index_en.htm

I don't remember if this has been posted around here before? All this money spent, and yet, here we are....

David Habakkuk

Thomas,

The crisis appears to have been defused. According to a Ria Novosti report:

'"We were informed that all of our brothers had been released, and the issue of Evdokimov [First Deputy Interior Minister of Ukraine Vladimir Evdokimov] is now being approached by the Cabinet. We very much hope to see him resigned. We understand that though this victory is a small one, it is still a victory. So, given the situation at the frontline, we remain at our posts," Yarosh said in a Youtube video on Sunday.'

(See http://en.ria.ru/world/20140817/192093814/Right-Sector-Not-Going-to-Attack-Kiev-Some-of-Requirements.html .)

This suggests that a complex power battle is still going on behind the scenes, with the Interior Ministry a principal focus. Whether one can conclude that Yarosh was overplaying his hand, and his bluff has been called, seems unclear. My guess is that he did.

What may be far more significant is that the position of Evdokimov looks as though it is certainly critical, and may still be unresolved.

If we understood what he stands for, and how he relates to different groups in Kiev and in the West, we might better understand what is happening in Ukraine.

David Habakkuk

Fred,

It seems likely that is part of the picture.

However, that brings out the element of anarchic chaos in all this.

If indeed the Ukrainian nationalists win out, then one of the things that will happen is that the industry in the South and East -- both defence related and civilian -- will lose its markets in Russia.

This will crucify the area, and also whichever oligarchs control that industry. That industry is simply not going to be competitive elsewhere, in any realistic time-frame.

This is probably part of the background to the behind-the-scenes moves which are likely to be going on at the moment.

As regards yourselves and ourselves, we will then be in the position that we have raised expectations that if Ukraine makes the 'European choice' it will end up like Poland.

For this and other reasons, we have got our hands firmly tied to this tar-baby.

I wish I confidence that Obama, or Cameron, or even indeed Merkel, had some of Br'er Rabbit's cunning, and could think of a way of getting us out of this.

Thomas

David,

That piece is holding together for now but the as the link below shows the Ukrainian Army is getting fed up with the arrogant incompetence of their leaders.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-very-telling-video-on-ukie-assault.html

On the morning of July 17th I was watching CCTV news where a Ukrainian Deputy Defense official was telling the wives and mothers of the troops caught in the Cauldron that everything was fine when an evacuated member of the unit on convalescent leave told the man he was full of it as he just spoke by cell phone with his friends stuck there. The official stood there dumbfounded. A few hours later that story was buried by the significant event of that day. And here we are a month later and no follow up on MH17 still.

The cookie is going to crumble but will it be the catalyst to bring this madness in Western Leadership to an end? Well, your prophetic namesake warned there would be days like these.

different clue

Haralambos,

Why was depleted uranium ever used to begin with? Is/was it cheaper and more available than tungsten?

Fred

David,

At least ole Br'er Rabbit knew which briar patch he wanted to be thrown into. Our political trio keeps stumbling into self created ones.

confusedponderer

It would be one off the usual bitter ironies of history if the Galizian peasants of western Ukraine, in their blind, ethocentric hostility to all things Russian (and then Polish and then Jewish), dragged down the industrialised Russophone East with them.

If they go on like that, they may end up pracically de-industrilaising the economically far more powerful East by denying the East Ukrainian economy its primary market of industrial products - Russia.

Ukraine would end up exacerbating it's problems as a economic basket case, and have no one to blame but themselves, and those idiots on America who had been egging them on (take Biden).

That would be a plan as cunning as anything the wise men of Gotham could think up.

And all the while, the IMF would preside over the fire sales of these smouldering remains to western Multinationals, or a new wave of Ukrainian cleptocrats.

The horror.

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