An Eventful Day in Novorossiya - TTG

Hear me now                                                                             Oh thou bleak and unbearable world,                                           Thou art base and debauched as can be;                                 And a knight with his banners all bravely unfurled                 Now hurls down his gauntlet to thee!  

Maybe I’m being a bit too emotional quoting Don Quixote in "The Man of LaMancha"… especially for a supposedly hard hearted empath. Well, too bad. I’m not dead yet and there are things in the world that still stir my blood. This is one of them.

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MOSCOW, August 14, 21:41 /ITAR-TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday urged the warring sides in Ukraine to cease fire immediately in order to guarantee the security of the humanitarian convoy for the eastern regions of Ukraine. “Now that the multifaceted efforts to settle all aspects of the initiative to provide humanitarian assistance to the population of the south-east of Ukraine has entered the final stage, the Foreign Ministry of Russia is strongly urging the warring sides to cease fire immediately,” the statement said. 

“This must be done in order to guarantee the security of the upcoming humanitarian mission. A ceasefire is required by the appalling situation in the South-East of Ukraine,” the ministry said. It also called on the warring parties in Ukraine to show political will and alleviate the suffering of people in the south-east of the country. The passage of the humanitarian convoy to the south-eastern regions of Ukraine will be a test of adequacy for Kiev, Alexander Brechalov, a Public Chamber member, said.

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I think we are seeing the beginning of Putin’s end game for Novorossiya and Ukraine. He’s been quiet lately and downright conciliatory in his recent public speech in Crimea. No threats. No demands. No red lines. He just set a convoy of humanitarian aid in motion. He went through the motions of negotiating with Kiev for the passage of this convoy through Kharkov on the way to Lugansk. As expected, Kiev denied entrance of the convoy into Ukraine. No problem. The convoy headed south towards a border crossing controlled by the rebels. As of last report, it’s camped within twenty kilometers of the border only a few hours away from Lugansk.  

Shortly after the humanitarian convoy encamped, a Guardian reporter traveling with the convoy watched a column of over twenty BTR-80s and accompanying support vehicles cross the border into Ukraine. Is this true or did the reporter just get turned around on the steppes of Russia? Is this the beginning of a full scale invasion? No, my guess is that this column, if it did actually across the border, is just advanced security for the humanitarian convoy. They reportedly went in with headlights on and in full view of Western reporters. This is Putin hurling down his gauntlet. Moscow is warning Kiev not to interfere with this humanitarian effort, a test of adequacy as Brechalov said. If any artillery or air attacks are made to disrupt the aid effort, I have no doubt the offending units will suffer swift and complete retribution at the hands of Russian forces. Kiev is right royally screwed.  

In the last 24 hours, Donetsk has been hit by GRAD, SS-21 ballistic missiles and airburst white phosphorus rounds. However, the rebels have blunted junta attempts to enter or surround the city. Pavel Gubarev’s militia group retook the Marinovka border crossing with Russia. A direct road from Russia to Donetsk is now open. This also closes a pocket with two more junta brigades surrounded. I’ve seen a twitter report of a company of Russian tanks moving north from the Marinovka crossing towards Donetsk. This can’t be a full scale invasion either. It may be just enough to keep this pocket closed. 

The other big news of the last 24 hours is the status and whereabouts of Gospodin Strelkov. Rumors have been swirling for the last two days. Kiev said he was severely wounded and in Sevastopol or dead. Others claimed he was fired as Defense Minister and fleeing back to Moscow. The truth seems to be that he is no longer the Defense Minister, either fired or resigned. His current status is unknown, but he is reported to have been reassigned to some other duty in the DPR government. Perhaps he is now a field commander rather than a minister just as Gubarev, the former President of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, just led the rebel assault at Marinovka.  

I sense the junta forces are reaching a Clauswitzian culminating point and the Novorossiyan rebels sense the same thing. Something big is in the wind. As my old mentor and good friend, Master Sergeant Albert H. Rivers would say in such a situation, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”

TTG

Comments

[FkDahl]

Database of destroyed and captured vehicles in the Ukrainian civil war: http://lostarmour.info/armour/, all with photo confirmation.
A lot of BMP2 for sure, but also some SPA pieces, which are IMO more indicative of loss on a unit level.

[Cee]

Anna-Marina,

I'm well aware. Milton Meyer's They Thought They Were Free Comes to mind. I continue to be stunned.

[Fred]

CP,

"you do obey a cop without question if you know what's good for you"

And in Germany you ignore their instructions at will?

[Ishmael Zechariah]

TTG,

Thanks for the analysis, enlightening and beautifully written as usual. I, myself, would probably look at V. Putin a very long time before thinking of Don Quixote, but the verse is beautiful none-the-less. Would you expect the Russian Command to send in a column of BTR-80s into enemy territory
without securing their path in advance?

Ishmael Zechariah

[The Twisted Genius]

Ishmael Zechariah,

I have my doubts about the column of Russian BTRs heading into Ukraine. Russia denies it, but did say that they reinforced that border area with mobile groups. My guess is that is what the reporters saw. The reporters haven't bothered to follow up on this initial scoop. I would think they would be eager to get absolute photographic proof of their claim.

The West has grabbed hold of this one report and milked it for all it's worth. They embellished it with Kiev's claim that they destroyed most of the Russian column with artillery. Britain even summoned the Russian ambassador over the supposed incursion into Ukraine based solely on this one report.

[fanto]

All,
I saw several weeks ago a short notice that the Ukrainian Gov was to pay off some financial instruments (bonds or some other securities) by August 1st - and if these were not paid, the government would be declared insolvent. Nothing happened on Aug. 1, so were these loans or debts paid off? anyone knows?

[Phil Cattar]

From what I know of all the possible candidates at this moment in time, Jim Webb would be my choice.He is probably too smart to run for the office and too honest to win.

[FkDahl]

Fred, when on vacation back in Sweden I was surprised by the amount of talking back to police I saw from a young man. I was expecting him to see the paint of the hood of the police cruiser very close.
In fact I started to think the situation went a bit far, in regard to respect for authority...

[Phil Cattar]

For a year (1963-1964)I was stationed on the border between north and south Korea.We patrolled the line daily and were on outposts in the DMZ 24/365.All we usually had was an M14 or shotgun.Even after "Joe Jumped" and ambushed an American jeep in the zone killing a few soldiers we did not change our weapons.,,,,,,,,,,I am sure there are many good policeman however the people who apply to be cops are sometimes the worst people to be cops.Adverse selection is in play.It would be better if people could be selected out of the general population for careers in law enforcement and given stringent psychological tests to weed out the sadists and bullies.

[Aristonicus]

Hi Madhu,

Kiev did launch an operation to try to seal the southern border of Donetsk and Lugansk last month. It ended in disaster last week with the loss of 50%-75% of the forces involved - surrounded in a pocket similar to say the Falaise Pocket battle in France in 1944 or many others on the Eastern Front that same year.

Sealing the border is militarily important - no doubt about that. The problem being that Kiev lacked the forces to do that and carry out other operations at the same time. Perhaps they didn't realize their strength shortfall until too late.

[robt willmann]

One reason that Russia is trying to send "humanitarian aid" into eastern Ukraine to the separatists is to try through that process to get some information out and publicity regarding the civilian deaths and destruction of civilian infrastructure done by the U.S. puppet Ukraine government in the areas controlled by the separatists. To help reach this goal, Russia is including the Red Cross in the procedure. If the Red Cross gets in there and starts reporting back various atrocities done by the Ukraine government and by oligarchs assisting in the destruction, it will give credence to complaints by the separatists and Russia.

Painting the trucks in the aid convoy white is a nice touch by the Russians. You can see that in this Ukraine intrigue since the beginning of 2014 that Russia is trying to play the information and propaganda game in a more "modern" way. They are not nearly as good as the U.S. at propaganda by mass media because Russia does not have the tradition of commercial advertising that is in the U.S., and they have not had mass media outlets that could easily reach other areas of the world until now.

Of course, much more powerful than propaganda is something known as truth.

[alba etie]

Rick
Take heart do not hang yourself yet - Gov Perry has just been indicted for abuse of power . IMO HRC well decide not to run . We need to draft Jim Webb , maybe with Elizabeth Warren as his running mate. I think our host & curator at SST has already opined he would support Jim Webb for President 2016 .

[alba etie]

Ishmael Zechariah
Little bit of topic , but now that Erdogan has won re-election any chance he turns on Dash /IS ? I keep reading reports about how Turkey is showing more support for Kurdistan .

[confusedponderer]

Of course, when a cop calls me to stop, I stop. But it is not because I am afraid of them. It was usually because I was quite aware of having just done something like walking over a red light or so.

They will as a rule of thumb speak to you before they grab, beat or shoot you. They emphasise de-escalation here, as they should. The point was about the protensity to use force. I don't fear that here.

I understand from reports that that cop in Ferguson drove by that man and slammed the car door into him. IMO a bad way to start a conversation with a citizen, probably constitutes assault, and would be indicative of an attitudinal problem with the cop in question.

I didn't came though because I posted somewhat csually:

The gist of my American acquaintance remark was that after all cops are armed and you are not, and that they will overpower you and the less resistance is offered the less you get hurt.

To me that attitude alone speaks for itself. If that was the standard, I asked him, what's the difference between a cop and a robber then?

Alas, sorry for not myking myself clearer.

[Eliot]

"The West has grabbed hold of this one report and milked it for all it's worth. They embellished it with Kiev's claim that they destroyed most of the Russian column with artillery."

Kiev has cried wolf far too many times.

Assuming that the war breaks open, which I think it will, what will Donetsk do? Many within the rebellion have talked about taking Kharkov and Odessa. Do they have the means to do so? What does Moscow want? Would they prefer a speedy end to the crisis? Or would they like to see the conflict continue? Is it better to have a Ukraine that's saddled with the Russian speaking oblasts, or a rump state that begins at the Dnieper River?

- Eliot

[Fred]

CP,

You should meet some more Americans since your acquaintance is full of it. Your unsubstantiated report about Ferguson is just that, unsubstantiated.

[Fred]

FkDahl,

I've lived in many places in the US. Sweden isn't the only place people talk back to police.

[nick b]

The Ukrainian govt has not missed any debt payments thus far. WSJ mentions this near the bottom of this article: http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-currency-at-all-time-low-1407849683

[fanto]

thanks, nick b - there is possibly some miraculous refilling at the bottom of the barrell.:)

[The Twisted Genius]

Eliot,

Some rebels have expressed visions of a Union of Novorossiya extending from Kharkov to Odessa and Transnistra, but it is just that... visions. Some rebels see the ultimate goal as the liberation of all Ukraine from the right wing junta now in power in Kiev. All high hopes beyond what the rebels can do at the moment, but still possible. The junta is politically, militarily and economically fragile and the rebels are quite determined and resourceful.

The ongoing hostilities are certainly not in Moscow's interests. Moscow wants a stable Ukraine preferably favorable to Russia, but definitely not hostile to Moscow. A strongly federated Ukraine where the eastern oblasts can pursue pro-Russian policies while the western oblasts play with the EU is acceptable. However, everyone knows eastern Ukraine has all the goodies and the western part is a basket case. Federation is a losing proposition for the EU and the western oblasts. The Kiev junta wants all of Ukraine, and all the resources of the eastern oblasts, under their strong central authority.

Moscow also wants a cooperative relationship with Europe, not the openly hostile relationship being pushed by the neocons and R2Pers in Washington. So that's another reason for Russian wanting these hostilities to be over.

[David Habakkuk]

TTG,

TTG,

The english translation of an ultimatum from Dmytro Yarosh to Poroshenko just appeared on 'Euromaidan Press'. Deadline is tomorrow.

(See http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/17/letter-to-the-president-of-ukraine-from-the-right-sector-military-political-movement/ .)

Extracts:

'Currently, along with the open aggression of Russia, an internal counterrevolution has intensified. At its vanguard are revanchist forces in the Interior Ministry, including those at the highest posts. The head of the bandit-militia group is the separatist enabler and Moscow collaborator General Yevdokimov. It is he and his followers who are doing everything possible to destroy the gains of our Revolution and pave the way for separatist and terrorist groups in Kyiv.

'An example of his violent anti-Ukrainian activities are the constant attempts to destroy the Ukrainian volunteer movement, which is essentially at the vanguard of the Revolution, and now the national liberation war, Right Sector. Starting with the destruction of our colleague Oleksandr Muzychka up to the recent developments in Striy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and other cities, there is a methodical game from the side of the police, playing into the hands of the separatists and Moscow ...

'In this regard, we appeal to the President of Ukraine Poroshenko, calling on him to immediately bring order to the Interior Ministry, to dismiss notorious representatives of anti-Ukrainian forces from positions within the Interior Ministry and to investigate their criminal activities ...

'In case of failure to meet our demands within 48 hours, we will have to withdraw all our forces from the front lines, to declare a general mobilization of reserve battalions and to start a campaign in Kyiv for the purpose of rapid reform in the Interior Ministry. The advancing columns of the Right Sector will be going in full gear.'

This may well, of course, be hot air. Be that as it may, it may be an indication that behind-the-scenes negotiations for a deal have indeed been happening.

If it is not hot air, things could get very interesting indeed. Just conceivably, it could herald both a relaxation of the pressure on the insurgents, and mayhem in Kiev.

[M. Oline]

Robt Willmann:

It could also be that they painted the trucks white because that is General Winter's favorite color.

[Fred]

As,
Welcome to the world of Texas politics where telling someone you're going to veto a bill if they pass it as written and then doing just that is "abuse".

[FB Ali]

While the fighting goes on, Ukrainian factories continue to ship military goods to Russia. The oligarchs make their own rules.

http://tinyurl.com/myo5rk7

[David Habakkuk]

The RT report links to the response of the Ukrainian Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov, on his Facebook page.

This suggests that some complex intrigues may be going on in the Interior Ministry. The RT account gives a smoother translation than that on Facebook:

'Interior Minister Arsen Avakov dismissed the Right Sector’s threat on his Facebook page, calling Yarosh’s armed forces “mythical” and the statement a publicity stunt.

'''Maybe it’s time to stop playing Robin Hood and stupidly putting in harm’s way the real patriots who believe you, Yarosh, for the sake of your patriotic snobbism?'' the minister wrote, adding that he sent the paperwork to have Yevdokimov dismissed to the government a couple of weeks ago.

'Avakov also implied that Yarosh was either out of his mind, or was working for Moscow by acting as a boogieman to Ukrainians in the east of the country.'

(See http://rt.com/news/180876-nationalists-threaten-kiev-raid/ .)