An Eventful Day in Novorossiya - TTG

Hear me now                                                                             Oh thou bleak and unbearable world,                                           Thou art base and debauched as can be;                                 And a knight with his banners all bravely unfurled                 Now hurls down his gauntlet to thee!  

Maybe I’m being a bit too emotional quoting Don Quixote in "The Man of LaMancha"… especially for a supposedly hard hearted empath. Well, too bad. I’m not dead yet and there are things in the world that still stir my blood. This is one of them.

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MOSCOW, August 14, 21:41 /ITAR-TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday urged the warring sides in Ukraine to cease fire immediately in order to guarantee the security of the humanitarian convoy for the eastern regions of Ukraine. “Now that the multifaceted efforts to settle all aspects of the initiative to provide humanitarian assistance to the population of the south-east of Ukraine has entered the final stage, the Foreign Ministry of Russia is strongly urging the warring sides to cease fire immediately,” the statement said. 

“This must be done in order to guarantee the security of the upcoming humanitarian mission. A ceasefire is required by the appalling situation in the South-East of Ukraine,” the ministry said. It also called on the warring parties in Ukraine to show political will and alleviate the suffering of people in the south-east of the country. The passage of the humanitarian convoy to the south-eastern regions of Ukraine will be a test of adequacy for Kiev, Alexander Brechalov, a Public Chamber member, said.

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I think we are seeing the beginning of Putin’s end game for Novorossiya and Ukraine. He’s been quiet lately and downright conciliatory in his recent public speech in Crimea. No threats. No demands. No red lines. He just set a convoy of humanitarian aid in motion. He went through the motions of negotiating with Kiev for the passage of this convoy through Kharkov on the way to Lugansk. As expected, Kiev denied entrance of the convoy into Ukraine. No problem. The convoy headed south towards a border crossing controlled by the rebels. As of last report, it’s camped within twenty kilometers of the border only a few hours away from Lugansk.  

Shortly after the humanitarian convoy encamped, a Guardian reporter traveling with the convoy watched a column of over twenty BTR-80s and accompanying support vehicles cross the border into Ukraine. Is this true or did the reporter just get turned around on the steppes of Russia? Is this the beginning of a full scale invasion? No, my guess is that this column, if it did actually across the border, is just advanced security for the humanitarian convoy. They reportedly went in with headlights on and in full view of Western reporters. This is Putin hurling down his gauntlet. Moscow is warning Kiev not to interfere with this humanitarian effort, a test of adequacy as Brechalov said. If any artillery or air attacks are made to disrupt the aid effort, I have no doubt the offending units will suffer swift and complete retribution at the hands of Russian forces. Kiev is right royally screwed.  

In the last 24 hours, Donetsk has been hit by GRAD, SS-21 ballistic missiles and airburst white phosphorus rounds. However, the rebels have blunted junta attempts to enter or surround the city. Pavel Gubarev’s militia group retook the Marinovka border crossing with Russia. A direct road from Russia to Donetsk is now open. This also closes a pocket with two more junta brigades surrounded. I’ve seen a twitter report of a company of Russian tanks moving north from the Marinovka crossing towards Donetsk. This can’t be a full scale invasion either. It may be just enough to keep this pocket closed. 

The other big news of the last 24 hours is the status and whereabouts of Gospodin Strelkov. Rumors have been swirling for the last two days. Kiev said he was severely wounded and in Sevastopol or dead. Others claimed he was fired as Defense Minister and fleeing back to Moscow. The truth seems to be that he is no longer the Defense Minister, either fired or resigned. His current status is unknown, but he is reported to have been reassigned to some other duty in the DPR government. Perhaps he is now a field commander rather than a minister just as Gubarev, the former President of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, just led the rebel assault at Marinovka.  

I sense the junta forces are reaching a Clauswitzian culminating point and the Novorossiyan rebels sense the same thing. Something big is in the wind. As my old mentor and good friend, Master Sergeant Albert H. Rivers would say in such a situation, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”

TTG

Comments

[Madhu]

Col. Lang, I've never understood Kiev's attitude toward Ukraine's borders, given their narratives of proxy wars and fears of Russia. It just never made sense to me, focusing on their campaign against "terrorists" and basically ignoring the border. But I don't have a military background, am I fixating on something that isn't important? Am I wrong about this detail and the light it sheds on Kiev's preferred narratives toward the East/

I've used the word grandstanding when talking about NATO generals and that is all I see, grandstanding for increased funding, a new lease on life for the organization post Afghanistan, the rest of it.

It's just strange to me?

[Rocketrepreneur]

Col. Lang,

I really like that song. My boys make me sing it to them on a regular basis. Though Impossible Dream is better IMO.

On the actual point of your post... it'll be interesting to see where this all goes. I also think that if Russia had actually wanted to invade (and wanted to own the mess that is Ukraine) that there'd be no ambiguity about it. They'd have a puppet installed in Kiev and Russian tanks on the Polish border. The fact that Russian involvement has been as low-key as it has shows that Putin isn't stupid enough to want to actually own the Ukrainian basketcase...

~Jon

[VietnamVet]

TTG

You are correct this is an eventful day. Before they are lost in the rush of events here are links to two rationale and reasoned calls for President Barrack Obama to negotiate with Vladimir Putin to stand down from the war with Russia:

http://www.thenation.com/article/180942/new-cold-war-and-necessity-patriotic-heresy#

http://m.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/talk-to-the-russians/375898/

We live in a biological/societal world in the West that seems orderly and progressive until some component goes out of whack and then suddenly the whole system crashes. Israel/Gaza and Iraq are spinning out of control. Two nuclear states are on the verge of a shooting war in Ukraine. The economic depression since 2008 has no end in sight. The Northeast was deluged by rain yesterday while California is baked dry.

Tonight I was moved by the video on ABC News from Ferguson, MO of the protesters against the militarization of the police raising their hands crying “Hands Up. Don’t Shoot Me”.

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/missouri-protesters-streets-hands-message-24990399

Today was the beginning of the end of the seizure of our government by war profiteers and Wall Street crooks either by a nuclear war that wipes the world clean of mankind or the American people start the fight for a government that is, once again, by and for the people.

[b]

"a Guardian reporter traveling with the convoy watched a column of over twenty BTR-80s and accompanying support vehicles cross the border into Ukraine."

I'd be very careful in believing the stuff Shaun Walker writes. He was with the convoy yesterday and the convoy is halted some 20-30 kilometer away from the border. How could he have observed the (not really well defined) border from there?

[confusedponderer]

"Hands Up. Don’t Shoot Me"

Speaks for itself.

An American once told me that, self evidently, you do obey a cop without question if you know what's good for you. I asked him then whether he really thought that that is a desirable state of affairs, in light of land of the Free and all that. I found the reply I got wanting.

Judging by their conduct, the US have since 9/11 bred themselves a militarised police.

When I look at Ferguson, welll, the pictures could be pretty much from the West bank. The same heavy handedness as in Ferguson could be observed in the Srattle protests and especially the NYPDs crackdown on Occupy.

Cee's Link below goes a long way to offer clues as to why:

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/08/canadian-law.html#comment-6a00d8341c72e153ef01b7c6cc1895970b

The problem is that the apparently Police like that in Ferguson perceive the citizenry they are supposed to serve like an occupying army perceives an occupied people - asn an opponent and threat. That is IMO an unhealthy thing.

It will take time to roll that back. Good luck.

As Benjamin Franklin put it: "A republic, if you can keep it". A prescient man.

[pbj]

Lots of resignations lately. Strelkov, Borodai, Boltov. On the Ukrainian side, Parubiy (co-founder of Svoboda / "Social Nationalist" party, until a few days ago, head of Ukraine's National Security Council).

Talk of Akhmetov (richest oligarch) making a move, organizing his own humanitarian aid (perhaps agricultural products that can't be sold to Russia anymore under sanctions?).

http://www.scmholding.com/en/media-centre/news/view/1641/

[The beaver]

confusedponderer

There are military surplus being given to local law enforcement agencies in some US cities.
America's Main streets have become war zones for some. This is what is happening in Ferguson

http://billmoyers.com/2014/08/13/not-just-ferguson-11-eye-opening-facts-about-americas-militarized-police-forces/

[ex-PFC Chuck]

We haven't been this close to "not keeping it" since at least the WBS (a northerner's hat tip to the Col. ;-) ) and perhaps back to the first Adams administration. Time will tell if it is indeed already gone.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Yesterday The Saker posted an amusing video of what passes for civilized debate in the Ukraine government:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YuaDPDxGYYM
There are no subtitles but you don't need them.

[zapster]

The photo accompanying that article has no identifying landscape features or signs. They're learning. I don't buy this one. An Dr. Paul Craig Roberts pointed out, Putin doesn't need to sneak--he can just go in. They've been shelling Russia for weeks.

This looks like an attempt to stir up hysteria against the convoy, which, even without ordnance will hearten the defenders and give them strength.

As for Strelkov, there is this: http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/57125.html

The translation is rough, but it seems he's not out entirely, but is no longer the main commander. It seems to be political, involving one of the oligarchs that may or may not have been funding the defenders. Saker's translators and cleaner-uppers will probably sort it out today, I imagine.

[Haralambos]

This piece is up today. I found the background to the current situation helpful as food for thought: http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/13/the-berlin-wall-and-missed-opportunities/

Ray McGovern is 75, and I am 65. I recall most of the details of my youth from my parents' concerns about Korea and the Suez Crisis along with those noted by McGovern.

[Fred]

TTG,

“Perhaps he is now a field commander rather than a minister just as Gubarev, the former President of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, just led the rebel assault at Marinovka.“

Resign a political position to fight in combat for your principles? Just like the founders of our Republic and so unlike the ladies (and male fellow neocons) advising the Nobel laureate.

[Cee]

The Beaver,

I just watched CNN's Carol Costello saying that the police need that kind of weaponry to protect themselves from the citizens in reponse to a report on the militarization of law enforcement. I almost spit out my coffee.
NOT ONE pundit, any channel that I saw mentioned that any law enforcement officer went to be trained by the IDF. The closet comment to that came from Jeffrey Tubin when he said these methods of control aren't generally used in the US.

We're occupied.

[Cee]

The illegitimate government wants to hold on badly...to the bitter end. Seems like a Samson Option in another place.

Ukraine is at risk of an environmental disaster as Kiev’s army continues to bomb the Donestk region, nearly hitting its largest chemical plant that stores lethal agents, the plant’s spokesperson warned. The minimum impact zone would be at least 300 km.

[alba etie]

rick
Who do you like for President in 2016 ? Ms Clinton said she would have armed the moderate Syrian rebels after all - Sen Paul is looking more and more viable to many of us .

[pbj]

Amazing. I don't feel bad for Lyashko (the smaller one who got smacked in the face). Here he is doing the intimidating, showing off for the camera:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi575J_wYdM

[The Twisted Genius]

rick,

Twenty years ago, I was saluting the honor guard at the Soviet War Memorial in the center of Berlin. I did that in solidarity with fellow soldiers knowing that those Russians were going through another in a long series of cataclysmic upheavals. Thirty-five years ago I was certain that I would die crashing a flaming, explosive laden T-64 into Lenin's mausoleum on Red Square as the last act in the final destruction of the Soviet Union and the liberation of Eastern Europe and the Baltics. I imagine we all change over time.

[The Twisted Genius]

b,

Yes, the claims and counterclaims of "bullshit!" are flying thick and heavy over what's really happening on the border. I doubt we will know the truth for a few days at least. It's like the mystery of MH17. We haven't heard a peep out of the "Putin did it!" crowd for quite some time know. Colonel Lang pointed me to an article by Ron Unz discussing the sad state of the Western press. It's well worth a read.

http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-who-shot-down-flight-mh17-in-ukraine/

[Anna-Marina]

Meanwhile, Moscow gave the EU the taste of EU's own "sanctions" medicine. This gives the warmongers a pause. The stupidity of US/EU dealers is astonishing. But what would one can expect when salespersons, instead of statesmen, are in charge?

[Anna-Marina]

Well, Americans stood aside while Zionists have been humiliating and exterminating the native Semitic population with the help of the US taxpayers money. The methods and skills were finessed on the weak and oppressed, and now the skills are applied to American cities to let the Americans know who is in change and how the citizenry is supposed to behave.

[Anna-Marina]

True. And we should not forget those who put their lives on line in defense of the American Constitution: Manning, Snowden, and Hummond.

[oth]

While Hillary is a statist like Obama, I think she was really trolling Powers, Rice and Donilon. She was SoS and they were driving all the policy. What better Clintonian behavior than to triangulate and screw them with their own fantasies?

Now we even have Obama saying moderates are like unicorns in Syria.

[Thomas]

Alba,

In answer to your question, Jim Webb as an Independent.

A non-partisan with strong public backing can break the stranglehold of the usurpers in government.

[Thomas]

From the linked article;

"In recent years, leading scholars have conclusively established that for a decade or two during the 1930s and 1940s, a small network of Communist spies quietly gained substantial control of our national government in Washington, DC, successfully diverting the actions of the United States to their own nefarious ends. "

The Neo-Con cult's founding vanguard I presume?

[Haralambos]

Cee, not to quibble, but I think 300 km is the radius, so if my memory is correct that is 600 km diameter. I do have some interest in this, since in 1986 during the Greek Easter holy week, my wife was hiking in Bulgaria as the cloud passed over in rain. One of the isotopes was of the Iodine family. Three years later, she had a thyroid tumor and was operated on in Portugal where we lived then. I have followed the thyroid issues along with the medical issues in the Balkans after the bombing of the former Yugoslav republics in 1999, since I had many students from the region attending the American College of Thessaloniki. There was a great deal of depleted uranium used in those attacks. This has been a hazardous environment for a number of years and the situation appears to be worsening.