ME Diary - 12 August 2014

"“We assess that U.S. airstrikes in northern Iraq have slowed ISIL’s operational tempo and temporarily disrupted their advances toward the province of Irbil. However, these strikes are unlikely to affect ISIL’s overall capabilities or its operation in other areas of Iraq and Syria,” Lt. Gen. William Mayville Jr., director of operations for the Joint Staff, told reporters."  Stars and Stripes

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/general-iraq-airstrikes-have-limited-temporary-effect-1.297794

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He da man!  If he doesn't think so then what is all the nonsense in the media about this handful of naval air strikes "turning back" the IS hordes?  pl

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"Shortly after the statement was released, Mr. Maliki appeared on state television, sitting around a table with his military commanders, where he delivered the same message.

Mr. Maliki did not back away from the threat of a legal challenge to the nomination of Mr. Abadi, a lawmaker from Mr. Maliki’s own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party.

But any legal challenge — which would be based on Mr. Maliki’s contention that he had a legal right to make the first attempt at forming a new government after the election, because his bloc won the most seats — is considered quixotic, because he has lost much of the support within his own party."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/world/middleeast/maliki-seems-to-back-away-from-using-military-force-to-retain-power.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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Maliki's statement is directed to the army, not to his police troops.  pl

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" The core of the proposal, which is written in vague terms, calls for the creation of an international mechanism that would better monitor goods entering and exiting Gaza. This mechanism would verify that materials such as iron and cement brought into the Strip not reach Hamas and other terrorist groups, which are thought likely to use them for military purposes."  Times of Israel

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One of the problems Israel has in reconstruction is "Who will benefit from the sale of cement to Gaza?"  If Natanyahu wants to be a hard ass about it , then Egypt will sell the cement and israeli businesses will get screwed.  let's see how he deals with that.  pl

Read more: UK, France, Germany propose plan for Gaza reconstruction | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-france-germany-propose-plan-for-gaza-reconstruction/#ixzz3ADrEzQEt   

 

Comments

[GulfCoastPirate]

Where does Obama get the authority to engage in military action in Iraq? Are they still operating under the old AUMF?

[GulfCoastPirate]

PL wrote:

'If Natanyahu wants to be a hard ass about it , then Egypt will sell the cement and israeli businesses will get screwed. let's see how he deals with that. '

Why should any Palestinian buy anything from an Israeli?

[C.Edward]

Sadly, it's not just the media who are peddling this nonsense; it comes from the top: "Iraq Airstrikes 'Very Effective' US Defense Chief Says"
Link: http://www.voanews.com/content/iraq-airistrikes-very-effective-us-defense-chief-says-/2409369.html

[turcopolier]

GCP

I know both Egypt and Israel in business. Israeli companies will offer the best product at the lowest prices. pl

[Fred]

GCP,

That's a great question and I'm sure the unitary state types in the administration are going to claim just that, which is a stretch.

[Tigershark]

Col.,

While recognizing the Middle East is awash in arms, where will ISIS get logistic support and maintenance and supplies of ammo? If the Iraqi army has problems with those things, shouldn't ISIS? Eventually won't they run out of things they can steal? Doing enormous damage until then, unfortunately.

[Ahor]

Iran will offer the best cement.

[Cee]

I read that a suicide bomber blew himself up near the PM's house today. ISIS/L member?
We're also sending advisors. What. The. Heck.

[Mark Logan]

CE, all,

I think in a narrow tactical sense they may well have been very effective.

Speaking of efficacy, this is tangential, but I've been wondering about the AF's claim of a few days ago that they successfully dropping 9 of 10 pallets into an area about half the size of a football field from "several thousand feet"and learned something. The answer must have been "JPADS".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Precision_Airdrop_System

Slick.

[Aka]

Iran seems to have ditched Maliki and now seems to support Abadi.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/world/middleeast/maliki-seems-to-back-away-from-using-military-force-to-retain-power.html

[jonst]

because they need it?

[jonst]

This DC micro managing of small tactical engagements, a mortar here, a vehicle there, is familiar to me. It is a recipe for failure, in my take.

[oofda]

Colonel,
That may be true, but with the international communty likely paying for the materials, the issue will be "should Israeli companies, and Israel, benefit from what damage they have created"?

[turcopolier]

oofda

The only issue will be whether or not Isreal wants the business. pl

[Walker]

and they have no other source.

[Anna-Marina]

Here is a clear, point by point, explanation of Israel's crimes against humanity in Gaza, and the US complicity in these crimes.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/08/13/an-interview-with-richard-falk-on-the-crisis-in-gaza/

[The beaver]

All

I have been watching this live report on the Guardian on and off since this morning and I saw this :

http://www.theguardian.com/world/middle-east-live/live/2014/aug/13/iraq-crisis-us-and-uk-step-up-involvement-live-updates

"The United States is organizing the activities of France, Britain and Germany to arm Kurds in Iraq, Reuters reports, citing an unnamed official:

The American diplomatic outreach underlines a preference in Washington to work within an international coalition to help the Kurds as they fend off the onslaught from the radical Sunni Islamists who have captured large areas of northwest Iraq.

The Czech government is looking for ways to supply weapons to the Kurds, possibly through private companies, Czech Foreign Minister Lubomir Zaoralek was quoted by local newspaper Hospodarske Noviny as saying on Wednesday.

An Italian government official said the push to supply military aid to the Kurds “is coming from the Americans, but also the Kurds themselves. The British are pushing a lot, too.”

[The beaver]

Cee,

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/suicide-bomb-explodes-near-iraqi-pm-home-2014812232143468495.html

[jr786]

Gaza has been built over more often than Jerusalem - it's an archeological dig in the making.

The real question should be who is going to pay for all the damage to the ground made by the Qassam "Holemaker' missile - those holes won't get filled in by themselves. Not to mention the unbearable and irreparable damage done to the collective psyche of the Jewish State, many of whose citizens will need magazine articles, tv shows and feature films made about them, all of which cost big money.

I guess we'll have to pay, and consider it a privilege.

[ISL]

Dear Colonel:

According to Saker (Aug 12),

"Kurdish Peshmergas are building up their forces on the outskirts of Jalawla and Saadia in preparation of an assault on the two towns. Inside the town, Daash fighters are preventing residents from leaving (a general curfew), they have raided the homes of security personnel, and have moved in heavy earth moving equipment to build earthen fortifications against any assault."

So the Kurds are attempting to protect logistics during their pushback effort between Iran and Iraq, while the US is only (currently) vowing to protect Irbil and the Yezhidi's, and bombing in the Mosul area.

As has been noted at SST, there is not much the US can do (and why would we expect the Pershmerga to be enormously better than the Iraq army we stood up, or even the US military) unless Obama wants to have a massive Iraq footprint again.

Thus the key to ISIS (IMO) is either Turkey or Iran - as noted SA is not up to the task, and Syria is a mess. Turkey is at best of mixed motives, and most likely negative on arming Kurds anywhere.

Bottom line: if this develops further, expect a disconnect between US wishes and Kurdish actions. I see US goals in order of priority:

1. Protect assets and escape route in Irbil
2. Not interfere with ISIS and its war on Assad ($500million to Assad still is go).
3. Support a new Iraq army that they will stand up to fight ISIS and substituting the US Army in the interim for the defunct ISF.
4. Generally oppose any policy that strengthens Iran
5. Support Israeli actions in Gaza (while crying crocodile tears for Yazidi

The Kurds would swap 2, kill 3 as unrealistic - the Kurds cannot push ISIS back to the Syrian border, seem to be undermining 4, and probably dont care about 5.

[different clue]

Ahor,

You mean like this?
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-03/05/iranian-concrete

[turcopolier]

All

Tell me how Iranian cement would be shipped to Gaza. pl

[GulfCoastPirate]

Fred,

I have a certain amount of sympathy for those people stranded on that mountain but if he's going to do anything more than rescue them and get out then I think he needs to go through normal channels.

[GulfCoastPirate]

PL Wrote:

'I know both Egypt and Israel in business. Israeli companies will offer the best product at the lowest prices. '

Interesting.

It's my understanding all the border crossings go through Israel or Egypt. If the Palestinians accept a relaxed embargo by Israel (and Egypt) without a seaport and/or airport under their control won't all their import prices always be a function of whatever tariffs the Israelis and Egyptians want to set at their borders?

[Babak Makkinejad]

The same way Iranian stone is shipped to Israel; first to Turkey and then to Israel.