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11 August 2014


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Dear Pat,
I highly recommend to you and to all the followers of your blog a new book that is just out, "Iraq After America" by LT COL (now COL) Joel Rayburn, published by Hoover University Press. A highly skilled intelligence officer, he defines the fault lines in Iraq with precision and even though he stopped his writing in 2013, all that is happening in 2014 is clearly foreseen, including the emergence of the DAISH (Islamic State). And if his line of analysis is correct, Maliki will deal with his current crisis (designation of al-Abadi to form a new government) as he has in the past and once again foil US policy, although I am sure he would hope that he is wrong.


Not seen any evidence for that thus far - but IS are in the potentially awkward position of having to combat entropy as much as anything else. The materiel that they have captured will degrade, become difficult to service, expire or be consumed over time, and their principal mode of replenishment is the capture of more stock from the Iraqi and Syrian militaries ( the pace of acquisition has slackened since the end of June ). IS cannot afford to get bogged down in an attritional campaign.


30 T-55s and five to ten T-72s per Daily Sabah. They think the chance of IS having M-1s is slim. But there is one unsubstantiated claim out there that says an M-1 was used at Mosul Dam. Could be smoke, could be mis-identification, but who knows?

alba etie

Brigadier General Ali
I just googled Turkey recongnizes Kurdistan and found several references to recent Turkish support for an independent Kurdistan . I also think Turkey will soon be course correcting regarding its support of ISIL. We shall see.


Thanks for responding. It may be real, but who helped make it real? I still propose that ISIS is not blowback but an intended policy goal.

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