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30 July 2014

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Norbert M Salamon

Ria Novosti reports that Russia Kiev and OSCE with reps from E. Ukraine are in talks in Misk [Belorussiaq]

VietnamVet

pbj

I’d say the pro-Russian militia stole the Tu-143 from a museum or warehouse and placed it in the field. It looks so rusty it would literally fall apart if launched, let alone fly.


When I was growing up in the 50’s, I was familiar with all the Soviet airplanes. If this keeps going I’ll get to relive my childhood again. Our only hope to avoid the Cold War 2 escalating to a Hot War with Russia is for Western Industrialists and the US Chamber of Commerce to convince the White House that a nuclear war is not good for business.

The Twisted Genius

Vietnam Vet,

The rebels did take several old armored vehicles out of museums and war memorials, refurbished them and put them into action. Have you seen the videos of the T-34s and the JS-3 Stalin tank rolling down the streets of Lugansk and Donetsk? Got to hand it to the technology and the mechanical ability of the rebels. As Alex Ovechkin once said, "Russian machine never breaks."

pbj

Thank you!

The Twisted Genius

David Habakkuk, Ingolf and Joe100,

Imagery without time and location stamps are near useless for proving or disproving anything. I've seen an interesting video of an infrared weather satellite that supposedly captured the launch of a Ukrainian BUK. It looks great, but no time or location data. Larger Russian media outlets did not run it, probably for that reason.

http://nemolchu.ru/video/ukrainskaja-voina/streljali-po-boingu-vsu-s-territorii-podkontrolnyh-kolomoiskomu.html

My guess is that Russia, at least, has definitive proof of how MH17 was lost and who is responsible. However, they also know that definitive proof would not change the minds of most people. Minds are already made up thanks to aggressive propaganda. I think they will content themselves with poking holes in the flimsy and suspect evidence coming out of Kiev and Washington until international experts examine the wreckage and definitively determine what brought down MH17.

Fred

charly,

"for useful bombs you need ICBMs"

Tell that to the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I assume your home is not near a potential target of a US or Russian Federation ICBM.

Fred

TTG, VV,

Next thing you know the 'rebels' will put some real vintage aircraft into operation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_S-16

Ingolf


TTG,

That's my guess too (and presumably the US has much the same information).

As for what kind of long game Russia is playing, you may be right. Presumably they have at least one representative at the crash site and at the black box analysis so they'll know if either is going pear-shaped and can quickly react.

Re the uselessness of imagery without appropriate identifiers, I'm probably missing the intent of your comments but wasn't that what the Russian MoD analysis was also pointing out?

Finally, have you got a sense of whether the air to air missile hypothesis is still alive, or has it been ruled out by technical experts?

William R. Cumming

Again watch Putin during the Congressional recess and post-2014 US elections.

The Twisted Genius

Ingolf,

I haven't heard technical experts rule out any theory, yet. Two former East German officers have opined that several photos of MH17 damage looks more like 30mm canon fire and/or multiple AA missile damage rather than a BUK hit.

http://www.anderweltonline.com/wissenschaft-und-technik/luftfahrt-2014/shocking-analysis-of-the-shooting-down-of-malaysian-mh17/

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/59019/2791311/neues-deutschland-nva-raketenspezialist-mh17-nicht-von-boden-luft-rakete-abgeschossen

As for the uselessness of imagery without proper identifiers, the Russian MOD and I do agree and that was my point.

David Habakkuk

Ingolf, F.B. Ali,

I regret that I did not have time to comment on Ingolf's discussion of General Dempsey's remarks at Aspen.

However, two posts by the former long-serving Canadian government analyst Dr Patrick Armstrong, dealing with the claim that Putin described the end of the USSR the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the Twentieth Century', are relevant to the issues raised.

In brief, a travesty of what he actually said is being used to justify the delusional belief that his reluctance to see Ukraine, including Crimea, absorbed into NATO indicates that Putin dreams of restoring the former Soviet Union.

(See http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/07/deadly-quotations.html , http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/08/deadly-quotations-part-2.html .)

On the actual drivers of Russian strategy, an article recently published on the 'National Interest' site by Andranik Migranyan under the title 'What Is at Stake in Ukraine' is illuminating.

(See http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-stake-ukraine-10979?page=show .)

In particular, Migranyan suggests that the view is now widespread among key sections of the Russian elite that the underlying U.S. goal is regime change aimed at the restoration of the pliant Russia of the 1990s, and the avoidance of an alliance between that country and China.

As Migranyan brings out, this leads naturally to the conclusion that Russia simply cannot afford to retreat in face of pressure, as doing so will lead to the pressure being intensified.

This means that it remains difficult simply to discount the danger of catastrophic escalation at some point. It also means that, unless the strategy succeeds, the actual effect is liable to be greatly to strengthen the emerging Chinese-Russian entente, as leaders of both countries will see themselves as being in the U.S. cross-hairs.


David Habakkuk

TTG, Ingolf, Joe100.

Ingolf writes of the Russians: 'Presumably they have at least one representative at the crash site and at the black box analysis so they'll know if either is going pear-shaped and can quickly react.'

What is happening with the black box analysis is clearly critical. It is simply not clear to me whether the analysis being done at Farnborough has been organised so as to allow both qualified Russian observers and other independent experts to ensure that there is no possible of the Brits tampering with the evidence.

If it has been, well and good. If it has not, then it would be significant evidence in favour of a cover-up, and accordingly in favour of the 'false flag' reading.

Is anyone aware of what the actual arrangements for the decoding of the black boxes are?

Fred

WRC,

Why? After the latest revelation confirming Brennan lied under oath and Obama's public announcement he has "full confidence" in him it quite apparent that it is our politicians you can not trust.

pbj

Ukranian statement regarding (another) drone:

http://mediarnbo.org/?p=3877

machine translation:

Yesterday the Ukrainian military launched an unmanned aerial vehicle to identify means of air defense of Russian mercenaries. After he completed his task and returned to base, militants shot down with his anti-aircraft rocket launcher "Buk M-1." Perhaps it is of such a facility professional mercenaries peace airliner shot down "Boeing - 777."

charly

To make useful bombs from the perspective of Iran you need nukes that can reach the US. I don't think a propeller driven Iranian plane can hit the US. An ICBM can.

turcopolier

charly

IMO a C-130 would be an excellent vehicle. fill it up with fuel bladders and refuel someplace in west Africa and then in northern South America or the Caribbean. Drug dealers do it all the time. Think small. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-130J_Super_Hercules pl

Ingolf

David,

Good article. Regrettably, Migranyan seems justified in his fears.

A recent article in the Telegraph (perhaps unintentionally) caricatured the sort of thought Putin and Russia are up against. You've probably seen it but if not it will provide some bleak amusement.

"The Prime Minister was asked what the British government can do to help stop Putin and support Ukraine during a question and answer session with staff at the headquarters of United Utilities in Warrington.

He answered by alluding to the lessons Britain learned about dealing with Germany’s aggression before the two World Wars.

Mr Cameron said: “Where do you want to start? I think of all we need to be clear about what is happening on our Continent.

“This year we are commemorating the 100th anniversary of the First World War and that war was about the right of a small country Belgium not to be trampled on by its neighbours.

“We had to learn that lesson all over again in the Second World War when the same thing happened to Poland, Czechoslovakia and other countries. In way this is what we are seeing today in Europe.”

Perhaps he was misquoted. In any event, we can breathe a sigh of relief:

"So we have seen an appalling loss of life and we have to ask ourselves – what more can we do? We are not about to launch a European war, we are not about to send the fleet to the Black Sea, we are not looking for a military confrontation, but what we should do is use the economic power that we have.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11000431/Britain-will-not-start-World-War-Three-over-Ukraine-David-Cameron-says.html

Here's Putin a few days ago at the opening of a WWI monument in Moscow:

"In world history, there are so many examples of what a terrible price is exacted by our unwillingness to listen to each other, the trampling of other people's rights, freedoms and lawful interests for the sake of our own interests and ambitions," said the president.

"It's time for humanity to understand and accept the important truth that violence begets violence. The path to peace and prosperity lies in goodwill, dialogue and remembering the lessons of past wars."

http://voiceofrussia.com/uk/news/2014_08_01/Its-time-for-humanity-to-accept-that-violence-begets-violence-Putin-1302/

The following struck me as particularly apt:

He said that the monument to the soldiers of the First World War was not only a tribute to great deeds, but "a reminder to all of us that the world is fragile."

It sure is.

Ingolf

Thanks, TTG.

Yes, it's a bloody confusing business. From the start, I've been surprised the photographs of the perforated parts of the plane haven't yielded a reasonably definitive conclusion, but that's quite likely just the result of my technical ignorance.

FWIW, a contributor at the PPRuNe site (Professional Pilots Rumour Network) was very definitive indeed about the Peter Haisenko analysis:

"The article is BS.

It is true, where the material is two layered in the enforced cockpit section the inner layer looks perforated from outside to inside and the outer layer is bent to the outside, as if a bullet has been shot from the inside. The explanation is simple to understand.

When the hot fragments of the warhead (they are very hot, glowing at the beginning) hit a single layer of metal, they just penetrate, they nearly melt through. All the expansion of gases the fragment causes goes to the inside.

If the fragment meets a doubled layer metal construction the first sheet again is perforated, but at the same time a lot of pressure is building up between those two sheets of metal due to expanding gases and melting of parts of the first metal, thus bending the edges of the inlet hole to the outside. Then the second metal sheet is penetrated. This principle is used to protect armored vehicles by using multiple sheets of metal layers instead a thick one.

And this pilot in the article has no idea of how an air-to air gun is used and where a pilot intending to shoot down an airliner would aim at. A head on path with a closure rate of 1500 km/h to hit the cockpit area from the front quarter (like the damage would suggest) would be the last maneuver some pilot would try.

He would be better to comment on thing he has a basic understandig."

Even if he's right, that doesn't rule out an air to air missile of course.

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/543733-mh17-down-near-donetsk-53.html

Apropos ruling things out, I've read in a number of places that the 70 kg explosive warhead on a Buk missile would have a far more devastating effect than shows up in the wreckage of MH17. This contention surely ought to have a straightforward answer and yet, so far, I haven't found one.

Ah well . . .

William R. Cumming

Fred! IMO Putin is smarter but beyond that he is in office until 2025!

charly

Doesn't work when an attack is expected (like when bombing Tehran) nor with multiple sites. I also don't think the Iranian airforce has enough of those type of planes to drop 50 bombs.

charly

I did study some nuclear physics in college and they are simply not that difficult to understand. Besides you can buy the blueprints for the Hiroshima bomb from Amazon.

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