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30 July 2014

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Fred

Thank God cooler heads negotiated removing the nuclear weapons from Ukraine in the'90s. If the "West" really wants to inspect the crash site why don't they go via the Russian federation?

The Twisted Genius

Fred,

It wasn't cooler heads. It was Russian mathematicians and engineers that prevailed. The Ukrainians tried their damnedest to bust the codes on the nukes in their possession. Luckily, they couldn't do it.

David Habakkuk

TTG,

On MH17, my strong suspicion is that everyone has a great deal to hide.

Without wanting to accept Russian claims, however, the suggestion made by Ray McGovern and his VIPS colleagues in the memorandum for Obama which was published yesterday does seem to have some cogency:

‘If the intelligence on the shoot-down is as weak as it appears judging from the fuzzy scraps that have been released, we strongly suggest you call off the propaganda war and await the findings of those charged with investigating the shoot-down. If, on the other hand, your administration has more concrete, probative intelligence, we strongly suggest that you consider approving it for release, even if there may be some risk of damage to “sources and methods.” Too often this consideration is used to prevent information from entering the public domain where, as in this case, it belongs.’

(See http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/29/obama-should-release-ukraine-evidence/ .)

You are in a much better position than I am to assess whether risks of damage to 'sources and methods' provide good grounds for not making evidence public. I would be interested to know what you, and other members of this 'committee of correspondence' think.

Medicine Man

This is wearyingly familiar. I know that I'm not the only one thinking this but what is the over-under on it being revealed that the Ukrainian fascists were the ones who shot down that airliner? I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this turned out to be a blatant false flag operation intended to sucker the West -- always eager to be fooled into this kind of intervention -- into doing their dirty work for them. All in exchange for the low, low risk of nuclear annihilation. Joy.

Matthew

Fred: Let me guess the sequence: In the next few weeks we will move from "The Separatists did it" to "It's really old news anyway."

VietnamVet

TTG

Ukraine’s firing of the ballistic missiles at the rebels prompted me to write letters to my Congress people saying that the Ukraine civil war is escalating and could become a shooting war between NATO and Russia which would inevitably escalate to a nuclear exchange. To prevent the total destruction of Maryland, they must demand that the White House force a settlement of the war on Ukraine; otherwise, stop all US military funding to this civil war, now.

When I wrote them last July protesting the rush to bomb Syria, for the first time I never got a letter in reply. But, the USA did not become the Jihadists’ Air Force. I would be very happy to get no reply these letters if we are still corresponding on SST next year in July and the Ukraine civil war has ended.

Thomas

Medicine Man,

What if the Ukrainians did it at the behest of their Foreign Handler?

Castellio

What I question is the portrayal of a false flag from Ukraine as not designed and "signed off" by the CIA agents running the Ukrainian show...

http://www.vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/07/the-not-so-subtle-art-of-russophobic.html

The visuals are worth considering.

Fred

TTG,

Very good points. I can only imagine how many 'mushroom clouds' Condolezza Rice was worried about seeing from Saddaam that we would be seeing in reality courtesy of President Poroshenko's military.

ToivoS

If the US is willing to release a report claiming that our satellite surveillance spotted the launching of those three SS-21s why can't they tell us what was seen when KM17 was downed. Surely our radar surveillance by US the US destroyer in the Black Sea and the AWACs over the Baltic must have seen something as well. There seems to be tight lid on this information.

What I found puzzling is why would this SS-21 launch information be leaked in the first place. It reflects badly on the Ukrainian regime. Maybe the decision to do so was made by someone lower in command who is getting a little concerned that our top leadership is moving dangerously in Ukraine. This leak is telling the world that we have have the means to monitor Ukrainian air space and that it is probable that US intelligence already knows what happened with KM17.

fanto

Mr Habakuk, you are right, there is a strange silence about the shoot down of MH17; the 'black boxes' have been examined many days ago, but nobody knows what was found on those recodings. Were the Russians at the 'opening of the 'Pandora's boxes'?

turcopolier

fred

"If the "West" really wants to inspect the crash site why don't they go via the Russian federation?" For sure, but that would destroy the "Bad Russia! Bad Dog!" meme. The utube of Mika's Freudian slip, "Morning Jew, uh, Morning Joe" is funny. I guess Polish Catholics with aristocratic pretension disdain more than just Russians. pl

FB Ali

All,

The only attempt by the US to give a somewhat evidence-based account of the MH17 downing was the interview given to the media by "senior US intelligence officials" on July 22, and reported by the AP at:

http://tinyurl.com/mvmj3y8

In it they said: "The plane was likely shot down by an SA-11 surface-to-air missile fired by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine...... The intelligence officials said the most likely explanation for the downing was that the rebels made a mistake".

This "accidental downing" explanation has completely disappeared from the US propaganda barrage unleashed soon after. In fact, the whole interview has disappeared, so much so that it finds no mention in the VIPS memo that David Habakkuk referred to above.

It is also interesting that the preliminary report on the black box readout says that the plane suffered explosive decompression due to the puncturing of the fuselage by missile fragments. That does not seem to rule out an air-to-air missile as the cause.

Medicine Man

Thomas and Castellio,

I would want to see some credible indications before buying in to that specific conspiracy theory. It is easy to imagine all kinds of chicanery, including speculation about who would profit, etc. I would rather not chase too many "mental rabbits" of this sort without something more to go on.

I agree that it is not impossible. Just seems more likely to me that the locals are trying to wag the dog. They seem more likely to be willing to shoulder the risks of such an action and after what Ghouta revealed about Western leadership it is not hard to imagine another tail trying to wag the dog.

Medicine Man

Thomas/Castellio,

Also, I should add that I am not entirely convinced that Washington and London have that fine a control over their foreign proxy. I am sure the Ukrainians understand that they are being used as a tool to wound Russia. A transactional relationship that I'm sure the locals want to cash in on before the West decides to pretend this never happened.

Matthew

Col: She must also resent the many attacks on her father. I can't see ol' Zbig waxing eloquent about how he feels like he's "coming home" when he goes to Israel.

Alan

To all here who have relevant experience, reliable contacts or considerable research skills, does this look like intelligence analysts whistleblowing this info (3 of them to Starr???) or is it a deliberate leak by the US government? And if so, to what end? I can't figure this out.

turcopolier

Attican Alan

This looks to me like the US armed forces pushing back. I used to "leak" things to the press on order from CJCS just to "even up the score." This is an old game. pl

Curtis

fanto commented :

nobody knows what was found on those recodings

"...On Jul 28th 2014 the Ukrainian Government reported that the flight data and cockpit voice recorders' first analysis results suggest the aircraft came down as result of an explosive decompression after the aircraft had been punctured by shrapnell from an explosion outside the aircraft. There is no such statement from the DSB leading the investigation or the AAIB conducting the read out and analysis of the black boxes.

On Jul 28th 2014 the DSB stated: "Flight recorders MH17 can be used for investigation, content will only be published in coherence with other investigation information."..."

Those interested in following the investigation should monitor http://www.avherald.com/ for updates as information is released in the normal course of the investigation. Normally aircraft accident investigations take several months if not longer.

The current URL for the MH17 investigation is http://www.avherald.com/h?article=47770f9d&opt=0

Alan

Thank you Sir.

dsrcwt

I don't imagine a 1000 lb. payload would have been game changing, but the rebels have been talking about a false flag chemical attack. One wonders what sort of payload the Ukrainians had mounted, or whether they we sending a warning and received a warning back from Russia.

Rocketrepreneur

Yeah, I think that people tend to overestimate the level (and precision) of control that the West has on the Ukrainian forces, and that Russia has over the rebels. It reminds me of a Simpsons episode from way back when, when Homer was inciting a mob, and Lisa or Marge asked him why, and he said something like "don't worry, I intend to shape and lead them so things won't get out of control" or something very ironic like that.

~Jon

The Twisted Genius

dsrcwt,

A couple of SS-21 hits on the rebel strongpoint at Saur Mogila could have been a game changer. That strongpoint is occupied by maybe a company sized unit with up to a battery of artillery at most. They have a commanding view of a lot of critical terrain. They are also well dug in, but a couple of SS-21 HE hits could very well knock it out of action. That position is key to keeping the cauldron closed around what's left of five Ukrainian brigades. It also protects a major approach to the MH17 crash site. Capturing Saur Mogila would be a major victory for the Ukies. It would also be a huge symbolic victory for them. The Soviet seizure of that hill was key to a major victory over the Germans in WWII. That's why there's a large obelisk and heroic statue on that hill.

The importance of that hill is not lost on the Russians. I imagine that is why they took action against the SS-21s and were moving their troops towards the border.

IMO the launch of the SS-21s was an act of desperation on the Banderistas' part, just as the announcement of new sanctions is an act of desperation on our part.

Fred

TTG,

"what's left of five Ukrainian brigades." Any idea if these are "old" army or the newly incorporated savboda/privat sektor militias?

Fred

Col.

What's that old saying? The dogs bark but the caravan moves on? I'd like to side-track the caravan of fools who are trying to get us into the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time - again.

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