Sic Semper Tyrannis

Middle East Diary - 11 July 2014

 

"Hezbollah possesses the Katyusha-122 rocket, which has a range of 29 km (18 mi) and carries a 15-kg (33-lb) warhead. Hezbollah also possesses about 100 long-range missiles. They include the Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5, the latter with a range of 75 km (47 mi), enabling it to strike the Israeli port of Haifa, and the Zelzal-1, with an estimated 150 km (93 mi) range, which can reach Tel Aviv. Fajr-3 missiles have a range of 40 km (25 mi) and a 45-kg (99-lb) warhead, and Fajr-5 missiles, which extend to 72 km (45 mi), also hold 45-kg (99-lb) warheads.^[227] It was reported that Hezbollah is in possession of Scud missiles that were provided to them by Syria.^[233] The reports were denied by Syria.^["           

Wiki on Hezbollah.

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Natanyahu has made it clear that if rocket (not guided missile) fire out of Gaza does not end, there will be a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.  IMO this will be a large search and destroy operation employing a lot of infantry supported armor that will be heavily provided with artillery and air support.   IMO a decision to conduct such an operation in an area that contains 1.6 million people, most of them civilians, is a decision to inflict mass casualties on that population.  IMO that decision is motivated by a desire to destroy the unity government now in effect in the Palestinian Authority.  Is this not a war crime?

In a ground attack the IDf will find that Hamas and Islamic Jihad have studied the lessons of the 2006 war against Lebanon.

There has now been rocket fire out of Lebanon.  This is Hizbullah fire.  HB possesses an impressive inventory of rockets and guided missiles as well as many hardened positions from which to fire.  They also have a large inventory of antiaircraft weapons.  There is little love lost between Hamas (Sunni) and HB (Shia) but the provocation being offered by Israeli bombardment and the coming invasion may be too much for HB to accept.  A combination of Hamas and HB rocketry and guided missiles would have range fans that would cover most of Israel.  These weapons are admittedly inaccurate, but if they fire enough of them they will swamp Iron Dome and a lot will get through the defense.   There would be significant Israeli civilian casualties in that combination of events.  IMO these first rockets from Lebanon are a shot across Israel's bow.

Ben Gurion airport is the best counter value target in Israel.  The Dimona nuclear complex is too deeply buried to be accessible to the primitive rocketry available to either Hamas or HB.  Look to see the "Aghabs" shoot at the airport in an effort to hurt Israel's economy.   pl

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/11/lebanese-rockets-hit-israel-as-hostilities-escalate/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Armed_strength

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 ""We have suspended our government business," said minister Hoshiyar Zebari, who is a Kurd.

Zebari said that Kurdish ministers were suspending their day-to-day involvement in the foreign, trade, migration and health ministries and the deputy premiership. On Thursday, Kurdish leaders announced they were canceling their participation in cabinet meetings.

Zebari said ministers will continue to attend the parliament, elected on April 30, which is seeking to form a new government in the face of a Sunni insurgency that has seized large sections of northern and western Iraq.

Zebari said Iraq risked falling apart if a new inclusive government was not formed soon as "the country is now divided literally into three states...Kurdish; a black state (IS) and Baghdad." He urged Iraq's political blocs to form a government quickly."   al-jazeera.com

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I remember Zebari laughing at me at a conference in Kuwait in 2005 when I told him that  the Iraq that Bremer as built was truly a house of cards that would disappear with the departure of the Americans.  He was as confident then as were many semi-westernized Egyptians after Mubarak's government fell to the mob in Tahrir Square.

IMO it is "all over" for the political mess that we Americans left behind in Iraq.  This "government" was based on the neocon/neo-wilsonian fantasy that dreamt of an Iraq in which the disparate peoples of Iraq would stop being disparate.  That was nover going to happen.

The Kurds will watch the circus act in the Iraqi Parliament and then vote themselves out of Iraq.  They will have to fight the IS to keep their lands but they can do that if they try hard.

The only real question is whether IS will try to take Baghdad once it has finished the business of consolidating its position in the lands of what they see as Caliph Ibrahim's 'umma.  pl 

 http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/7/11/iraq-parliament-dysfunction.html

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 "“The ISF are capable of limited defensive actions. And in some areas they are capable of limited but not sustained counter attacks,” says Jim Dubik, a senior fellow of the Institute for the Study of War and, in 2007, the US lieutenant general in charge of overseeing the training and development of the ISF. “But what they are totally incapable of planning, preparing or conducting is a counter offensive of any kind against Isis that will push them back and retake territory from the insurgency.”

Mr Dubik’s view is shared by many military analysts and current military officers.

In the next few days, six assessment teams dispatched by the Pentagon to Baghdad and Erbil will report on their assessment of the ISF’s disposition and capabilities. The picture will be “grim” says one Nato military intelligence officer.

In three operational areas the ISF has seen its capabilities degraded, according to Mr Dubik: “The systems that supply and support the combat soldiers – intelligence, logistics and personnel management – have atrophied.”"  FT

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This FT article is well worth reading.  I don't know Dubik but he knows the Iraqi forces well and is a seasoned officer.  ISW analysis of Syria and Iraq has generally been worthless but perhaps Dubik will fix that.   The underlined text above is literally the "crack of doom' for Maliki's Iraq.

The Malta Times reports that an IS force has seized the military base in Muqdadiya, Diyala Province 60 kilometers NE of Baghdad.  It is reported that many of the rebels went into the attack in armored personnel carriers (APC) or riding atop tanks.  So much for the idea that they are too primitive to use captured equipment.  pl  

 http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140711/world/Insurgents-take-military-base-near-Baghdad.527245

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a089e41e-081c-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de.html#axzz37AqrP3TY

"On the Road to Samarra..." NY Times

"From this point on boundaries are constantly shifting, with the Iraqi government’s control extending only a little beyond the side of the road, and sometimes not even there.

The 75-mile drive from Baghdad to Samarra plunges the traveler into Iraq’s precarious new reality. It is a world of Shiite militias, where many of the men carrying arms on behalf of the government have only the most tenuous ties to the Iraqi security forces.

And it is a world where Sunni militants, who advanced to within 50 miles of Baghdad in their initial burst last month before their drive stalled, often are no more than a mile or so away.

Travelers must read signs that would be invisible to a newcomer: Flags and uniforms signal safety or danger."  NY Times

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Beyond Samarra on the road to the north, the government's control must be even more precarious.  Tikrit is a long way farther from Baghdad than Samarra under these conditions.

This means that the government force flailing about at Tikrit sits up there at the end of a long, pencil like line of supply that probably does not include much beyond the road itself and its shoulders.

I have been in many places like this in the Middle East and Central Asia.  Frequently the actual extent of government control is limited to roads, checkpoints and towns at  least nominally and partially in government hands.  The authors are correct in saying that in these circumstances one must read the "signs" carefully, look at the people with guns, listen to what they do not want to tell you about their enemy's presence in the area.  If you do not do that you will blunder into a zone of death.

The Arab historiographer Ibn Khaldun wrote long ago that political life in Muslim countries is like this because there are no traditions of political compromise and each group believes itself to be the sole practitioners of virtue.

The fact that the rebel coalition has not yet made a serious effort to cut that long, snakelike line of supply indicates to me that they are presently engaged in consolidation of their gains.  pl  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/world/middleeast/iraq-samarra-shiite-militias-isis.html?emc=edit_th_20140710&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=405151&_r=0

Related articles

From Baghdad to Samarra: An Iraq-ISIS No Man's Land

"Lacking a Gaza exit strategy...." Haaretz

 

"When the decision was made to launch Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, the security cabinet did not set any diplomatic objectives for it. Beyond trying to stop the rocket fire by military means, it isn’t clear if the Netanyahu government wants to simply restore the status quo and gain a few more months of quiet, or to fashion a new diplomatic reality regarding Gaza for the morning after.

The only diplomacy Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Foreign Ministry are engaged in right now is public diplomacy. Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday by phone to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, asking them what they would do if missiles were being fired at Paris or Berlin, and also asking them to publicly condemn Hamas."  Haaretz

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IMO the underlying "strategic" goal for Israel in this largely manufactured frenzy is the one often discussed here on SST, i.e., to divide the Gazan people from their Hamas government through fear of mass collective punishment. 

Most of the Israeli people and their government still believe that if they beat the "Aghabs" long enough and hard enough, the "Aghabs" will eventually understand that they have no choice but to submit and accept their permanent serfdom under Israeli rule. 

This understanding of the possibilities is typical of the Revisionist Zionist thinking of the Likud and Bibi Natanyahu.  Israel has been applying this kind of political logic for many decades.  This approach has never worked to further the goal of improving their security situation.  What did work was the Madrid/Oslo process. but the implied creation of  an actual Palestinian state has never been an acceptable notion for most Israelis.  They say to pollsters that they want peace?  Many conquerors and occupiers have wanted peace, but what kind of peace?

Bibi spends his time calling world leaders seeking a sympathy that does not exist?  He should continue.  pl 

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.604163

The Golani Brigade's orders for the invasion of Gaza - jdledell

 

" I can assure you the Israelis have no intention of reoccupying Gaza. They do not want the responsibility of managing the Gaza people. They will simply go in, kill as many young men(assumed to be Hamas) as possible and utterly destroy as much infrastructure and economic assets as they can. They will then withdraw and leave the people to their own devices. My nephew is a Golani captain and his unit is just outside Gaza the above is the essence of his unit's orders."  jdledell

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jdledell is a dual national Israeli-American with long exoerience in and of Israel  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golani_Brigade

 

"...Gaza Offensive to Intensify as Rockets Fly" Bloomberg

"“We have decided to intensify even further our attacks on Hamas and other terror organizations in Gaza,” Netanyahu said in a text message, as barrages of rockets from Gaza reached as far as 88 miles (142 kilometers) into Israeli territory. “The military is prepared for all options.”

Intelligence and Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz spoke explicitly of a possible ground offensive and reoccupation of Gaza, which Israel evacuated in 2005 after 38 years. Authorities yesterday authorized a call-up of 40,000 reservists, and tanks are massed along the border with Gaza.

Israel’s air force, backed by the navy, ramped up weeks of attacks on Gaza yesterday, with the declared intent of ending the rocket bombardments that began last month. The worst fighting since November 2012 follows the collapse of U.S.-led peace talks in April and the recent killings of Palestinian and Israeli teenagers, further dimming any chance of renewing negotiations soon."  Bloomberg

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Sisi and Bibi seem to have similar programs.  Sisi  is in the process of setting back the Islamists' clock in Egypt through the mechanism of extermination.  He is operating on the principle of "Dead Men Don't Bite."  I doubt that he believes that this process will permanently expunge Islamism from Egypt but he thinks, as I do, that this will mightily impede the phenomenon.

Bibi seems intent on exterminating Hamas.  The US under Obama has not been sufficiently docile and obedient.  Kerry actually criticized Israel over the collapse of the peace talks and Obama just does not know his place. 

IMO Israel's internal inhibitions against massive violence against "Arabs" has been suspended through massive media manipulation and anti-Palestinian propaganda.  The only restraining factor on Israeli behavior now is their perennial fear of Jewish casualties.  There are non-Jews in the IDF, Druze mainly, but I suppose that concern extends to them as well.

To miminize IDF casualties, the coming ground invasion will employ maximum firepower.

Caliph Ibrahim is now giving the Shia of Iraq much the same treatment.  He is also reported to have begun the process of rounding up Baathists and veterans of Saddam's army to give them the opoortunity to acknowledge his authority.  This will accelerate the disintegration of his cooperation with the same groups and the tribes. pl

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-09/israel-aims-to-crush-hamas-military-as-cities-under-fire.html

"Netanyahu government ... whipped up racist frenzy." Max Blumenthal

 

"The assault on the West Bank arrived on the heels of the collapse of the US-led framework negotiations, for which the US blamed Netanyahu, and immediately after Hamas’ ratification of a unity deal with the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu was still smarting from the US recognition of the unity government when news of the kidnapping reached him. Never one to miss an opportunity to undermine the Palestinians, he and his inner circle resolved to milk the kidnapping for maximum propaganda value.

Weeks after the incident, it is now clear that the Israeli government, intelligence services and army engaged in a cover-up to provide themselves with the political space they required for a military campaign that had little to do with rescuing any kidnapped teens.

The disinformation campaign they waged sent a heavily indoctrinated, comprehensively militarized population into a tribalistic frenzy, provoking a wave of high-level incitement, the shocking revenge killing of an innocent Palestinian teen and rioting across East Jerusalem.

Where the chaos will end and how far it will spread is unknown. But its origins are increasingly clear."  Max Blumenthal

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At the moment the Likud government is massing troops before Gaza in "self defense" (of course).  The reallly heavy self defending will commence soon and more of the same can be expected in the West Bank and Jerusalem.  American Zionists of both the Christian and Jewish varieties cheer this on, the Jews because they are driven by racial and national hatred and the Christians in the hope that Jesus will approve.  pl 

 

http://electronicintifada.net/content/netanyahu-government-knew-teens-were-dead-it-whipped-racist-frenzy/13533

 

 

 

Grass Still Not Greener--yet Margaret Steinfels

Following up on conditions in the Crimea, the wicked NYTimes reports corn and rice down, barley and wheat, okay; credit and transportation down, promises up.  So goes Russian sovereignty.

NYTimes, July 8.

Obama should order Tariq's medical evac to US hospitals in Europe

"A Palestinian-American teenager allegedly beaten while in Israeli police custody in East Jerusalem is to be held under house arrest for nine days, a judge has ruled.

Tariq Khdair, 15, from Florida, is to remain in the Jerusalem area of Beit Hanina during the investigation. 

Mobile phone footage appears to show two Israeli policemen repeatedly punching him in the head."  BBC

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This Floridian is being held in house arrest as a suspect in a case of supposed violence against Israeli police.  He is an Americn kid, born in Florida who was in Jerusalem visiting his dying grandmother.  He IS NOT a dual national.  His parents seek competent medical attention for his injuries.  Obama should order USAF medical evacuation of this boy and his parents to US medical facilities in Europe where his government can be assured of his safety.  The Israeli government should be informed of what they can do with their house arrest order. 

Tell the US government what should be done to make this right.

pl

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtttdyZ9pVw

 

Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria Diary - 7 July 2014

"ISIS "took the weapons stores of the 2nd and 3rd [Iraqi army] divisions in Mosul, the 4th division in Salah al Din, the 12th division in the areas near Kirkuk, and another division in Diyala," said Jabbar Yawar, secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, punctuating his words with quick flicks of his laser pointer as he stitched a scythe-like arc across a map denoting various provinces and cities strung across northern and central Iraq.

"We're talking about armaments for 200,000 soldiers, all from the Americans," concluded Yawar, a mustachioed figure whose office in Irbil features a photograph of him as a young peshmerga fighter in the 1980s against the government of former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein."  latimes

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People like Cordesman are repeating the nonsense that holds the rebel coalition in such contempt as to claim that they cannot master the use of the masses of US made equipment captured as booty.  Baloney!  Do those who think that way not grasp the simple truths that there were already many skilled ex-soldiers among the rebels and that the rebels also captured technicians from among the Iraqi Army?  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq-isis-arms-20140629-story.html#page=1

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Syria - "moderate" rebel politics.

- "The Syrian National Coalition will pick a replacement for its current president, Ahmad al-Jarba, in a vote expected on Tuesday. The top candidate for the job is senior coalition members are Hadi Bahra and Muwaffaq Nairabiyeh, who belong to Jarba's Democratic bloc. Spokeswoman Sarah Karkour said that by Sunday evening, there hadn't been an agreement on a candidate, although members were coalescing around Bahra." newsok

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Blah! Blah! Blah!  John Kerry should attend the meeting in Istanbul.  An opportunity for good Doner Kebab should not be passed up. This is more nonsense about the "moderate" Syrian rebels.  These people have been defeated by the SAG, by al-Nusra and by ISIL.  They have been beaten like "a rented mule."  Their existence as a real force in Syria is yet another fantasy produced by the R2P/AIPAC influence in the US foreign policy establishment.  We should appropriate $500 million for them?  What a grand opportunity this will be to rip off the  US tax payer as the money passes through various hands.  And to what end?  The alternative to a Syrian government victory in the civil war is NOT the kind of liberal democracy dreamt of by the US media and government fantasists as the "inevitable" result of the revolution in Egypt.  No, IMO the inevitable result of the SAG's defeat and disappearance would be a Hobbesian maelstrom of jihadi factions fighting each other for control so that they would have a free hand in persucuting religious minorities.  BTW, don't kid yourself that Assad can be removed and have his government and forces stand.  That is just another fantasist dream.  pl

http://newsok.com/article/feed/708039

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 "A growing number of Western officials are calling for an audit of the ballots cast in the Afghan presidential election, increasing the likelihood that the nation’s electoral commission will have to formally reassess the June 14 runoff vote even as it prepares to announce preliminary results.

Ever since Afghans voted in the runoff, the system has been deadlocked by allegations of widespread fraud. The presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has consistently complained that his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, with the help of the commission and other Afghan officials, rigged the vote."  NY Times

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 SOFA anyone?  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/07/world/asia/western-officials-press-for-audit-of-afghan-presidential-vote.html?_r=0 

 

"Ex-Shin Bet Chief: Israeli Illusions Fueled Blowup" JJ Goldberg

"Yuval Diskin, who served as director of Israel’s Shin Bet security service from 2005 to 2011, posted some rather blunt observations on his Facebook page this morning regarding the tit-for-tat murders of teenagers, the Palestinian rioting in East Jerusalem and the Triangle (the Arab population center south of Haifa) and what he fears is coming down the pike.

It strikes me that he’s probably saying a lot of what IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz was thinking at this week’s security cabinet meeting, when Gantz’s far more restrained comments led to a tongue-lashing from Naftali Bennett. In other words, this is how the current meltdown looks to much of the top Israeli military and intelligence brass. It’s what they’ve been saying privately while in uniform and publicly after retiring (and occasionally even while still in uniform). I’ve taken the liberty of translating Diskin’s Hebrew into English."  Goldberg

Read more: http://blogs.forward.com/jj-goldberg/201468/ex-shin-bet-chief-israeli-illusions-fueled-blowup/?#ixzz36mnD0XtP

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This meditation by Diskin echoes many of the comments made on SST with regard to the religio/nationalist psychological bubble that a lot of Israelis live in. 

In the Washington Post today there is a piece concerning the shock, yes, the shock, felt by many Israeli Jews at the thought that some of them (Jews) would abduct a teen from in front of his father's house, drag him into a wood, drench him in gasoline and set him on fire.  I'm sorry,but a belief that one's group is somehow more moral, virtuous and deserving of grace than others is simply racist.  Well, they are just Arab, might be the underlying theme of the fear for his people that Diskin voices.

In a related event the ex-American citizen, Israeli ambassador to the US, Ron Dermer, appeared on the tube over the weekend to firmly state that Israel will reject Jews who participated in killing and burning the Palestinian boy.  He made several such hortatory statements and then ruined the whole thing by saying (roughly) that such firmness would be displayed because Israeli Jews are better people than the Palestinians because their hearts are pure.

Sad.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Dermer

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/with-arrest-of-six-jews-in-arab-teens-killing-israel-confronts-its-own-extremists/2014/07/07/422a49aa-05b9-11e4-a0dd-f2b22a257353_story.html?hpid=z1

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/07/06/israeli-ambassador-killers-arab-palestinian-teen-will-not-be-hailed-as-heroes/  

 

 

Iraq Diary - 6 july 2014

 

"The Iranians have started acting in Iraq, though they have not committed many people. They are trying repeat their tactics in Syria, which is to create a parallel army out of the militias to buttress or replace the regular Iraqi army. They openly say they are doing so. But there is another aspect of their Syrian strategy which shows signs of appearing in Iraq and is bad news for Iraqis. This is to cut off electricity and water to rebel areas and pulverise any town or city held by the enemy with shellfire and bombing without assaulting it, but forcing the civilian population to flee; then advance cautiously and try to encircle enemy positions with checkpoints so they can be gradually strangled.

This appears to be what is happening in Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein and a city of 200,000 on the Tigris river. The city centre is being systematically smashed according to eyewitnesses, and any point of resistance is pounded by artillery. Iraqi security officials say they believe they have a good chance of clearing Salahuddin province of which Tikrit is the capital, but they admit that recapturing Mosul will take a long time. Meanwhile, Isis has started bulldozing Shia shrines and religious buildings, opening the door to a ferocious religious war."  Cockburn

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This is a new thought, at least for me.   Maliki's army has been engaged at Tikrit for a week, more or less.  They are not making progress visible to me or the press. 

Is this a further indicator of ineptitude and a lack of firmness of purpose, or is it a reflection, as Cockburn thinks, of Iranian strategic planning?

He also thinks the Iranians will seek to make the Shia militias that were recently raised into a Hizbullah clone. 

This is interesting, but one must ask if Iran has really had as much control over strategy and events in Lebanon and Syria as Cockburn implies.  pl  

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/iraq-crisis-as-shia-shrines-are-targeted-and-tikrit-is-strangled-the-fiercest-of-wars-lies-ahead-9587043.html

Why the US Should NOT Directly Interfere Militarily in Syria and Iraq. - Yusuf al Misri

 

This headline should be rephrased, for accuracy, as follows: Why the plan to work with Bashar Al Assad and Tehran to confront ISIS is stupide.

The reasons are the following:

* ISIS is a distorted expression of the Sunnis in Iraq and Syria to share in ruling their community. As long as this aspiration is not fulfilled, the Sunnis in both countries will, reluctantly or willingly, support ISIS against their own enemies. Ironically, these enemies are Al Assad and Iran.

* Without the support of the Iranians Al Maliki would not have been able to implement the sectarian policies that led to the rebirth of a new kid, worse than the mother if this could be ever imagined, which is ISIS that is an off spring of Al Qaeda. And without the Iranian support, Al Assad could have never been able to sustain his deliberate transformation of the Syrian civilian uprising into a situation that induced the spread of ISIS and Al in Syria.

 

 

The Rise of Novorossiya - TTG

"I understand and share in the bitterness and resentment of those who found out this morning that the Militia has left Slavyansk. The news washed over everyone – the hoorah-patriots, the all-is-lost-patriots and even the cold analytical types. And now, please listen to a person who spent the last month and a half in Slavyansk.

From the time of the very first checkpoints on the outskirts and to the almost complete encirclement of the city. When we broke out of Slavyansk along the by-pass “guerilla” road in the middle of June, a few hours later a Ukrainian army checkpoint appeared there. That’s it; the city was blockaded on all sides. Supplying the garrison turned into a constant headache incommensurate with its tactical advantage. And, despite all the despair coming through in the public statements made by Igor Ivanovich, when he told the entire world that “we could not hold any longer than July 12,” I am more than certain that, if NazGuard [Note: National Guard] did manage, on New Year’s eve, finally to enter Slavyansk, leveled to a cement pancake, then there would still have been automatic rifles and grenade launchers hitting the Ukrainian troops from every other basement.

In reality, the fate of Slavyansk was being decided in April-May, when Karachun Mount was taken. It is impossible to conduct a fulsome and active defence when you are faced with a strategic dominant height overhanging the city, several kilometres in length, seized by the adversary and laden with enemy artillery. And to fight, moreover, without any means of counter-battery warfare. Impossible, and, yet, Igor Ivanovich and the Militia managed to resist anyways. And not only to resist, but, in a mere few days, to disabuse the many-times superior enemy of any desire to engage the Militia in a direct confrontation. As far as I can tell, they abandoned any intention to assault the city as soon as the Militia returned Semyonovka under its control.

Undoubtedly, Slavyansk became the symbol of the “Russian Spring;” moreover – it entered history. Forever. But the purpose of the city was different. Slavyansk drew to itself all the battle-worthy forces of the Ukrainian army, it enabled the mobilization of the Militia in Lugansk and Donetsk." (Komsomolskaya Pravda)

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I am in full agreement with this assessment by Dmitry Steshin. The rebels appear to be well trained, well led and well motivated. A telling example is this short video of rebel 120mm mortars in action. Aiming stakes are out. That means there are forward observers and a fire direction center. The gunners are leveling the tubes between rounds. That all takes training and discipline. I’m impressed. Many of the rebel leaders and probably a decent portion of the rebel soldiers are veterans of one or both Chechen wars. The regular Ukrainian army units don’t have their hearts in the fight. The National Guard units, largely composed of Pravy Sektor thugs and their ilk, are plenty motivated for the ATO (anti-terrorist operation), but they’re better trained for Maidan Square rioting than combined arms warfare. 

Why hasn’t Putin initiated his peacekeeping operation to stop the fighting and slaughter of civilians? The Saker and many others are clamoring for intervention. There are plenty of logical reasons for not intervening so overtly. But I don’t think the threat of sanctions and a new cold war are what’s holding Putin back. No, he is another hard hearted empath. He knows that Novorossiya must be forged from fire if it is to survive. They must want it and be willing to fight for it themselves. Back in April, Igor Strelkov, the former Russian SPETZNAZ colonel and military leader of the rebels, complained that not enough men were stepping forward to fight. That has changed. The rebels are now 20,000 strong. The Donbass miners have defied their oligarch employers and began taking up arms just last month.

Additionally, Putin disdains the West’s penchant for R2P and aggressive interference in the affairs of others. He will move if he thinks it is necessary and when he thinks it is necessary. For now, I believe he is content to provide covert support as necessary, push for a real ceasefire and political solution, and bide his time as a new nation that intends to span from Kharkov to Oddessa and Transnistria births itself.

TTG 

Israeli police beat American boy - NY Times.

 

"As my colleague Jodi Rudoren reports, a video posted online appears to show Israeli police officers beating a Palestinian-American boy after his detention on Thursday during protests in East Jerusalem that followed the death of his cousin, a teenager who was kidnapped and killed two days earlier.

Relatives said that video recorded from two angles by witnesses showed two masked police officers hitting and kicking the boy, Tariq Khdeir, 15, a high school sophomore from Tampa, Fla., as they took him into custody with 11 others. A police spokesman, Micky Rosenfeld, accused the boy of “attacking security officers and rioting,” but his father, Salah Abu Khdeir, told The Associated Press that he had witnessed his son’s arrest and insisted that he was not involved in any violence. “I asked my son, ‘Did you throw rocks?’ He said, ‘No,'” Mr. Abu Khdeir said in an interview with CNN."  NY Times 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/06/world/middleeast/beating-of-palestinian-american-boy-caught-on-video.html?_r=0

Is Israel a safe place?

 

"Saber Al-Aloul, the director of the Palestinian forensic institute, attended the autopsy which was carried out by Israeli doctors in Tel Aviv.

Al-A’wewy said Al-Aloul had reported fire dust material was found in Khudair’s respiratory canal which meant “the boy had inhaled this material while he was burnt alive.”

Burns covered 90 per cent of the surface of the body. The head suffered a cut. Samples like liquids and tissues were taken for more lab examinations to complete the legal medical report."  Irish Times

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 "“It’s safe to say the likelihood of violence in Israel is lower than it is in large cities in the United States,” he said. “I don’t think my general advice is any different from my advice when she went to college in New York: Avoid dangerous situations and don’t behave recklessly. I really don’t think one tragedy, no matter how horrific, should impact the decision to send a child to Israel, or to visit it yourself.”

Bernice Cohen said that when her son, Isaac, goes to Israel, she will feel that he is surrounded by people who will look out for him and protect him. But that doesn’t mean she is free of worry.

The Cohen family members are dual citizens of Israel and the United States, and when they lived in Israel, their home was in a neighborhood not far from the high school that the slain Israeli teenagers attended. Her back yard, she called it."  Washpost

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 Apparently the Palestinian boy was burned alive by his abductors.  The Israeli police are interviewing his relatives.  Rumor in East Jerusalem has it that they are trying to establish a case against one or more of the boy's kin in the matter of his death.  Police are reported to have asked his women relatives if the dead boy was homosexual.  If that could be claimed then a case could be made that family "honor" caused relatives to kill him as relatives sometimes kill women who are thought to have disgraced the family.  That judgment would be welcome and self justifying for many who do not wish to accept responsibility for anything that happens to "the Arabs," as they are commonly called in Israel.

The Occupied Territories approach open and total revolt in a third intifada (rebellion).  Such a struggle would be damaging to both Israelis and Palestinians.  Bibi frets over "de-legitimization" of Israel in the world?  Broadcast images of Israeli troops and police beating and shooting teen-agers will not help Israel's place in the world.  There was TV coverage today of Israeli police beating a 15 year old who happens to be a US citizen.  Americans are tiring of their "little friend."  Another intifada will accelerate that process.

And then there is the story of these Jewish American middle class people in the Washington area Maryland ghetto.  Many of them are dual nationals as was the kid beaten by Israeli police.  They profess to believe that Israel is a safe place.  Well, Herzliya Petua is probably safe.  Ashkelon and similar places are probably safe but much of the country will not be safe at all in an intifada.

The young man in the photo is going to Israel to attend a military school and then join the IDF.  This sounds like another Michael Oren in the making. 

We should put a end to the law that allows dual nationality.  pl

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/east-jerusalem-youth-burned-alive-palestinian-official-1.1857003

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/05/us-palestinians-israel-idUSKBN0FA05G20140705

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/jewish-teens-head-for-israel-unafraid/2014/07/04/b3bceb38-02dd-11e4-8fd0-3a663dfa68ac_story.html

 

 

 

Related articles

Are Israel and the US edging closer to a divorce?

East Jerusalem youth 'burned alive'- Palestinian official

Israeli Journalist Admits That Israel Does Not Want Peace

"Israel does not want peace" Ha'aretz

"Israel does not want peace. There is nothing I have ever written that I would be happier to be proved wrong about. But the evidence is piling up. In fact, it can be said that Israel has never wanted peace – a just peace, that is, one based on a just compromise for both sides. It’s true that the routine greeting in Hebrew is Shalom (peace) – shalom when one leaves and shalom when one arrives. And, at the drop of a hat, almost every Israeli will say he wants peace, of course he does. But he’s not referring to the kind of peace that will bring about the justice without which there is no peace and there will be no peace. Israelis want peace, not justice, certainly not anything based on universal values. Thus, “Peace, peace, when there is no peace.” Not only is there no peace: In recent years, Israel has moved away from even the aspiration to make peace. It has despaired utterly of it. Peace has disappeared from the Israeli agenda, its place taken by the collective anxieties that are systematically implanted, and by personal, private matters that now take precedence over all else."   Gideon Levy in Ha'aretz

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This article speaks for itself and I will not editorialize on it.  pl  

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-peace-conference/1.601112

Independence Day

The JCS wants a reinforced brigade in Baghdad

 

"The new injection of manpower brings the total number of U.S. personnel sent to Iraq to deal with the recent crisis to approximately 800.

The State Department, meanwhile, announced that it was temporarily moving an unspecified "small number" of embassy staff in Baghdad to U.S. consulates in the northern city of Irbil and the southern city of Basra. This is in addition to some embassy staff who were moved out of Baghdad earlier this month.

Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the Baghdad embassy "will be fully equipped to carry out" its mission.

The White House announced that President Barack Obama, who has previously ruled out sending combat troops back into Iraq, had directed that 200 troops be sent to reinforce security at the embassy, its support facilities and Baghdad International Airport."  CBS News

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The carefully worded statements being made at the WH and State Department conceal the tenuous nature of the security situation in the Baghdad area.  The forces of Caliph Ibrahim (ISIS et al) may not be able to overrun the massively Shia population of Baghdad but the danger of action by infiltrators or hostile Shia is real and likely to grow.  Sizeable parts of western Baghdad are Sunni.  As Major Garrett says in this report the danger to foreigners may become severe.

In this situation the Joint Chiefs of Staff (and presumably CENTCOM as well) have told the WH that there are three pieces of Key Terrain in the Baghdad area from the US point of view;

- The US Embassy.  There has been a drawdown on civilian employees there.  That continues in as low key a manner as can be managed.  Reinforcements to the marine security guard are in place.   The embassy cannot be defended over a long period of time in hostile conditions but the additional security would provide time to finish equipment and document destruction, get senior staff out, etc.

- Baghdad International Airport.  A large scale overland evacuation of US and other civilians is no longer possible.  If you doubt that look at a map that shows who holds what and can interdict what.  A large scale NEO will require the use of a lot of  large transport aircraft.  Most of them would probably be civilian charter aircraft.  That always seems to be the case.   The airport is a big place.  The flow of air traffic could be severely impeded or halted by indirect fire (mortars and artillery) onto the airfield runway and ramp system.  The rebel forces have now captured a lot of such equipment and there are enough trained men among the rebels to use them,  The artillery (M198 155 howitzers) that they have captured have ranges in excess of 20 kilometers.  An airfield is a fixed target system.  It is not hard to hit especially if you have a little local help in adjusting fires.  There is also the anti-aircarft fire problem to include MANPADS.   To keep the airport functioning and civilian aircrews willing to operate in and out of there, a continuous procress of searching the surrounding neighborhoods to the east, employing counter-battery radar to locate firing positions and agressive use of things like armed helicopters to harass and destroy the guns.

- The airport road.  It is 15 kilometers from the embassy to BIA.  A lot of the road runs through Sunni areas of the western part of Baghdad.  Clear?

As a result of this kind of analysis the JCS proposed several options toObama among them was the realistic option for 4500 troops (a brigade plus), attached artillery, communications and air assets to perform these missions.  What they were given was 350.   This seems a a political decision.  

Total US troop strength in Baghdad is now to be set at something like a thousand; SF advisers, embassy guard and the people who are or will be at the airport.  This seems inadequate to me.  pl  

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-orders-200-more-u-s-personnel-to-iraq/

Murder and counter murder - a genocidal danger

"He said Khudair's friends saw a car make a U-turn near the mosque, when someone called the teen over and then forced him into the car. Friends reported seeing two or three people in the car at the time. They chased the vehicle, he said, but it managed to drive away. His friends called the police immediately, Mahmoud said.

"The police know who did this,” he told Israel Radio, adding that a description of the car, pictures and a license plate number were available to police. ""  LA Times

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Congressman Peter King was on the tube a few minutes ago repeating the Israeli government position (Marc Regev) that there is no equivalence in the killing of the three Jewish boys and the death of this Muslim boy.  That will play well in King's Long Island District.  King is a feircely patriotic New York Irishman.  He appears never to have met a war he didn't want the US to participate in.  This was evident in his service in the New York Army National Guard from 1968 to 1974.  He was 24 in 1968 so I guess he felt the call of duty then.  Clear enough?

Seriously, Bibi's main concerns lately have been the Hamas/PA alignment and a growing tendency toward "de-legitimization" of Israel around the world.  In his obsession with these things he becomes more and more belligerent and manipulative in US politics and media.  The crisis in Syria and Iraq (the Islamic State) must be an irritant for him in that it distracts from what should the main focus of the US, Israel's wishes.

The criminal idiocy of the men who killed the three Jewish boys has now been matched by the criminal idiocy of the men who killed the Muslim boy.  Peter King says there is no equivalncy.  He is wrong. Natanyahu encourages such idiocy by the virulence of his encitements of Israeli Jews against the Palestinians and his all too evident intention to deny them a state forever.

Several factions of Hamas have now pledged their allegiance to Caliph Ibrahim.  There is fighting today in the streets of Jerusalem.  Will this escalate to a general and genocidal war of Jews against Arabs in the Holy Land?  Will the treaties with Egypt and Jordan withstand the political stress that would ensue.

I do not know.  pl 

 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-jerusalem-boy-killed-20140701-story.html

Iraq Diary - 2 July, 2014

-  The Chivers NY Times piece concerning the utter disintegration of an Iraqi Army border guard brigade is illustrative of the many reasons for doubting the salvage potential of that army.  The non-existent leadership of the "officers" of that unit would be laughable if not so sad.

- The US has positioned some helicopter gunships at the Baghdad airport.  It is reported that these are Apaches.  That would mean an Army aviation unit.  I had thought that these "birds" were from the fleet marine force contingent in the Gulf, but perhaps not.  Whatever they are, they will be very useful in a large scale NEO.  Presumably they would be used to keep Baghdad International Airport open for the NEO.  Ground troops and maintenance crews will be needed to defend the Apache base at the airport.  IMO the basic idea wold be to keep the airport open for large transport aircraft.

- Russia is going to provide Iraq more SU-25 Frogfoot CAS aircraft and as predicted here the Russians will fly them at least initially.

- Iraqi politicians are threatening to introduce Iranian aviators, materiel and ground troops into this fight.  It is not clear that the Iranian government wants to do this.    pl 

http://news.yahoo.com/us-troops-baghdad-fly-apache-helicopters-drones-222125739.html

 http://news.yahoo.com/us-troops-baghdad-fly-apache-helicopters-drones-222125739.html

 http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/01/iranian-su-25-iraq/

http://www.militarytimes.com/article/20140701/NEWS/307010061/Envoy-says-Iraq-can-t-wait-U-S-military-aid 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/02/world/middleeast/after-retreat-iraqi-soldiers-fault-officers.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

Michael Oren - The Only CNN analyst on the Middle East?

 

Michael Oren was US born and educated in the "best" American schools that raw talent could reach and money could buy.  He emigrated to Israel where he bacame a career IDF intelligence officer specializing in analysis of the United States.  He is an apologist for the repeated and unproked Iraeli air force and navy attacks on the USS Liberty, a naval vessel engaged in collecting Egyptian military signals off the Sinai coast during the 1967 war.  He served as Israeli ambassador to the United States.  I was told by a senior CNN figure that Oren gave up his US citizenship before taking up his post as ambassador.  That means that he had been a dual national while serving as an IDF intelligence officer.

Yesterday CNN announced Oren on the air by describing him as "CNN's Middle East Analyst."

Does CNN have a balancing Middle East Analyst or is Oren, an obvious Israeli agent, the whole story?

Can CNN still be considered an Americn news source?   pl  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Oren

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octavia_Nasr

 

HARPER: OBAMA HAS NO EXIT PLAN FOR IRAQ

As of last week, the Obama Administration has not authorized the Pentagon to put in place a Non-combattant Evacuation Plan (NEP) for Iraq.  This stunning bit of information was provided by Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren, in response to a reporter's question at one of the Defense Department's regular morning "gaggles," where credentialed reporters have the opportunity to ask on-the-record questions in a more informal setting than the regular press briefings.

At the same time that the Administration is ignoring the potential fate of an estimated 25,000 American citizens presently in Iraq in a wide range of jobs, including key posts at most of the country's critical infrastructure sites, President Barack Obama is slowly drawing the United States deeper into the Iraq quagmire.  On Monday, he announced that he was sending 500 additional "advisers and observers" to the country; and there are now as many as eight American Navy ships in and around the Persian Gulf, including one ship carrying several hundred Marines.  

I was told yesteday by one senior U.S. intelligence source that there is a "begrudging consensus" between the United States, Russia, China and even Iran that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) poses a deep threat, and that they must be crushed.  As the result, an odd-fellow military alliance of sorts is emerging on the battle fields of Iraq and Syria.  In the recent days, U.S. armed Predator drones have been flying what in effect amount to combat missions over Iraq.  Russia has sent their own trainers and advisers to accompany an initial delivery of Russian fighter jets, that are going to be put into combat within a matter of days.  And while the Syrian Air Force has been bombing ISIS strongholds inside the country near the Iraq border, units of the Free Syrian Army have been engaging in ground operations against some of the same ISIS strongholds.  In one recent Syrian Air Force bombing raid, a number of important second-tier ISIS field commanders were, I am told, killed.

U.S. intelligence estimates that there are as many as 2,500 Chechen fighters in the ISIS strongholds on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border.  This is of vital importance to Russia, which will not miss the opportunity to join this strange "coalition of the willing" to crush ISIS and shut off the potential flow of combat-hardened fighters back to the Caucasus.

Secretary of State John Kerry was in Paris late last week, meeting with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan.  From there, he flew to Riyad for a three hour meeting with King Abdullah.  His mission:  To make it clear that ISIS posed a serious threat to the survivial of the House of Saud if they were to succeed in establishing a separatist state in the border regions of Iraq and Syria (Syriaq?). Kerry pressed for a serious crackdown on the Gulf funders of ISIS and related jihadist groups.  

Turkey for its part is already taking some significant steps towards supporting an independent Kurdistan, carved out of Iraq.  On Monday, a spokesman for the ruling AKP announced support for just such an independent Kurdish state if the situation further deteriorates in Iraq.  The Kurdish Regional Government, in obvious coordination with the Turks, announced it was considering such an independence declaration of a Kurdish state incorporating the oil-rich Kirkuk region.  Such a Kurdistan would be landlocked and greatly dependent on Turkey for oil exports and other vital economic needs.

As Col. Lang has been warning since the very first outbreak of the current Iraq conflict (Iraq War Take III?), the 25,000 Americans inside Iraq are potential hostages for a barbarian ISIS or for the recently reactivated Madhi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr (whose own militia men have in some cases been getting their combat experience fighting for the Assad regime in Syria).

These are some of the emerging "facts on the ground" that warrant discussion among the informed participants in this blogsite.