Fertile Crescent Diary - 19 July 2014

 

The defeat brought to an end a three-week campaign by the government in Baghdad to recapture Tikrit, which fell to the Islamic State on June 11. Military spokesmen earlier this week had confidently announced a final push to recapture the city.

Instead, Islamic State forces turned back the army’s thrust up the main highway Wednesday. Beginning late Thursday, the Islamist forces stormed Camp Speicher, a former U.S. military base .     

Witnesses reached by phone, who asked not be identified for security reasons, said that by Friday morning the final pocket of government troops had collapsed, an ignominious end for a counteroffensive that had begun with a helicopter assault into Tikrit University but ended with troops trapped at Camp Speicher.

 

There was no comment from the Iraqi government. On Wednesday, the military had acknowledged that its forces had made what it called a “tactical retreat” to Ajwa, a town about 10 miles south of Tikrit, after the push into the city failed."  Miami Herald

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The "tactical retreat" to Ajwa became yet another massive defeat for the Shia run government.  IMO there is nothing short of a full blown intervention by Iran or use of US strategic air (conventional munitions only) that can prevent an IS coalition advance to Baghdad.  Baghdad International Airport is a logical objective in the next phase of the IS coalition campaign.  This would physically isolate the government and put the renewed US effort to support that government in an untenable position.  Having done that, a next phase would almost certainly be occupation of the Sunni inhabited western parts of the city. 

Meanwhile, in Mosul,  IS is giving Christian Iraqis the classic choice that conquering  Muslim armies gave to the occupied in the beginning of Islam.  That choice is;  1- Convert, 2- pay the "Jizya" a capitation tax on each member of a conquered community of "people of the book," 3 - Die.  pl

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/18/4243140/islamic-state-overwhelms-iraqi.html#storylink=cpy

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/18/4243140/islamic-state-overwhelms-iraqi.html

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"Militant group Islamic State killed 270 soldiers, guards and staff when they captured a Syrian gas field on Thursday in the bloodiest clash yet between the al Qaeda offshoot and President Bashar al-Assad's forces, a monitoring group said on Saturday.

The anti-Assad Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Thursday that 90 people had been killed and that many were missing after the attack against the Sha'ar gas field east of Homs in central Syria.

But on Saturday, the Observatory, which monitors violence in Syria through a network of sources in the country on both sides, quoted "trusted sources" as saying that the Islamic State had "killed and executed" 270 people during the assault. It said at least 40 Islamic State fighters were killed in the offensive."  Reuters

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OK.  IS fights the Syrian Arab Government and wins. Are we still against the Syrian Government?  I had lunch yesterday with a Syrian who held a high position in the government until he dared to criticize the political acumen of Bashar.  He then became a non-person and left the country.  I told him that his experience reminded of that of an Egyptian acquaintance who was Inspector General  of the government and who told Mubarak that "some people" said his sons were corrupt.  This retired Egyptian General immediately lost his job and also became a "non--person."  The Syrian pointed out that actual, core IS fighters are bringing a lot of captured US supplied equipment back into Syria to use against other anti-Assad forces as well as the SAG.   This Syrian heads a Gulf based regional studies group.  He also thinks that what the Iraqi government faces is a coalition of; ISIS, tribals and ex-Iraqi Army from the army we disbanded and who then fought us for years.  In Syria it is a different situation.  ISIS in Syria fights more or less alone with a strong infusion of international jihadis in their ranks.  They, nevertheless, seem to have little difficulty using the captured equipment.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/19/us-syria-crisis-attack-idUSKBN0FO05O20140719

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 "Only days after NBC removed him from its coverage of the fighting in Gaza, the correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin will be reinstated and sent back into the region, the network said Friday evening.

The decision to pull Mr. Mohyeldin off the story, after he witnessed an Israeli air attack that killed four Palestinian children and then posted remarks on Twitter about it, prompted a round of questions, and much criticism of NBC among Internet commenters."  NY Times

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Good work folks.  Keep it up.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/business/media/nbc-correspondent-ayman-mohyeldin-is-returned-to-gaza.html?_r=0

 

Comments

[Petrous]

Mr. Mohyeldin's reinstatement is welcome news and , given that it was NBC that took him back we must assume the barrage of public support (where from?? USA??) must have turned into an avalanche at some point forcing their hand. Their coverage is one of the most biased I have ever seen, it does not matter what talking head program one watches (i.e. hardball, Morning Joe, Maddow, etc etc ).

[Bandolero]

All

I don't know what this news is worth, but anyway:

Quote: Atta confirms setting control on the Baiji refinery and the entire Spyker military base in Salahuddin. [Print] [Save]
19/07/2014 15:13:00

BAGHDAD / Nina /--Spokesman for the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces brigadier general Qassim Atta, confirmed that army and security forces have set control today on Baiji refinery and the entire Spyker military base in Salahuddin province .

Atta said at a news conference today: "The terrorists tried to get close of Baiji refinery and around Spyker base near Tikrit during the past four days, but the attempt was foiled after killing a number of terrorists .. / End

Source:

http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=HFIGHD

That would seem like the battle of Tikrit is continuing.

[turcopolier]

Bandolero

"All I don't know what this news is worth," Probably noting. residents in the area are reporting by telephone that this new Baghdad Bob is full of it. pl

[r whitman]

All;
Can anyone cite a source for a truthful update of the situation in Gaza?

[Hamza]

Colonel Lang-- what would you do if you were in charge of the Iraqi 'Army'. Since they seem unable to sustain any kind of offensive, should they fall back to more defensible positions and hold the line?

[oofda]

Can't the NY Times get the story straight- after several days? It was Israeli naval gunfire that killed the four boys in question, not an Israeli air attack.

[Ryan]

Bandolero,

I've been curious about the fate of this refinery as well. What I have seen is there are around 75 SWAT holed up in the control building. The IA hasn't tried to resupply them due to fear of losing more helicopters. ISIS hasn't tried to take the control building because they are afraid the controls will be badly damaged if not destroyed outright.

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

The recent IS victories in Tikrit and the Shaar gas fields are an ominous sign. They testify to IS's military power and its increasing solidification of the caliphate.

Both indicate that it will increase its support by attracting more adherents from the competing jihadi factions and the general Muslim community, especially disaffected youth in the West. The chances of a breakaway by Sunni tribesmen and former Saddam soldiers are reduced with every success it attains.

Meanwhile the West is caught up in a wild orgy of vilification of Russia and Putin. Is anyone looking at where the real danger is emerging?

[turcopolier]

FB ali

"Is anyone looking at where the real danger is emerging?" Yes, we are. pl

[turcopolier]

oofda

Yes. It is all very confused. I have an Israeli writing to me claiming it was an airstrike. pl

[FB Ali]

Further to my post above:

Another development that is playing into IS's hands is the Israeli assault on Gaza. The horrifying reports and images coming out of Gaza are not getting much publicity in the West but that is not the case in Muslim countries. The contrast between them and the deathly silence of their rulers is further delegitimizing the latter. They appear to be complicit with Israel and its Western backers to destroy a Muslim community. Erdogan is the only one who has spoken up.

The narrative being developed in the Muslim world is that the West backs Israel to attack and destroy Muslims, with the complicity of Muslim governments. The only ones defending Islam are the jihadis, with IS as their leader.

The seeds of much trouble in the future are being sown.

[turcopolier]

r. Whitman

my instinct says to me that Richard Engel, Ben Wedeman and Carl Penhaul are doing a credible job. pl

[Castellio]

FB Ali... Is that narrative wrong? Is not the US and the West in general doing what it can to assist Israel in the destruction of a Muslim society, and is it not with the complicity of silent Muslim governments?

I don't mean this rhetorically. If faced with the proposition as an analysis, do you (FB Ali) concur or disagree? And if you disagree, on what grounds?

Or to put the question a bit differently, why do you write "They to be complicit with Israel and its Western backers..." Aren't they complicit?

[FB Ali]

That is why I wish, along with many others, that you were shaping US policies!

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

I want to repeat my thanks for your hard work, thick skin and intelligence. Yesterday and today, this is the first web site I went to, even before I read my e-mail.

The last time I felt this much anxiety was the weeks before I reported for Induction into the US Army 45 years ago. It is impossible to know for certainty what will happen next but Ukraine and the Middle East today are absolute disasters. NATO is on the flight path to war with Russia. The Sunni Shiite Holy War is ignited. The Islamic State is sure to try to encircle Damascus and Baghdad. If the USA keeps supporting the Sunnis, it is not unlikely that the left over Americans will be cut off in Baghdad together with hundreds of thousands of desperate armed Shiite militias. Likewise, the resurgent Jihadists could seize the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. Instead of a one front war in Gaza, Israel will be fighting on two borders unless they are crazy enough to start third war with Hezbollah or the third Palestinian Uprising ignites

The Likud Party and the Neo-conservatives are one and the same in their beliefs. They will use nuclear weapons if necessary to end the insane wars that they start; no matter if it destroys the Northern Hemisphere.

[FB Ali]

The narrative being developed is pretty stark - all blacks and whites. The reality is perhaps more nuanced (though the outcome may well be the same as postulated in the narrative).

My own view is that Israel seeks to evict the Palestinians from their land, if necessary by killing a lot of them. Governments in the West tend to look the other way, or utter pious remonstrances on occasion. Except the US, which fully supports Israel in whatever it does, providing it with the means to do so. (So many Americans on this blog have bemoaned the stranglehold that Israel has on US policy).

As for Muslim governments, Egypt, the Saudis and the Gulf Emirates (except perhaps Qatar) don't care about the Palestinians and what happens to them. They seek Israel's cover in their war against Shia Iran. Other Muslim governments don't particularly like Israel, but do need to keep the US happy, so they stay mum. In that sense they are being complicit.

Muslim peoples generally, Arab and others, hate Israel and dislike the US. These sentiments, combined with their helplessness, make them fertile soil for the jihadi narrative to take root and grow.

As I said, I foresee much trouble in the future from these developments.

[turcopolier]

Hamza

IMO they will be lucky if they can hold onto the area from Baghdad south. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

" The only ones defending Islam are the jihadists, with IS as their leader." is not a true statement.

Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and to an extent Turkey are defending Islam - as you state.

ISIS is akin to Khwarej.

[Babak Makkinejad]

And the Israeli Labor Party and US Democratic Party are also one and the same; from all evidence.

[Babak Makkinejad]

It is questionable how long Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are going to endure under a Shia-Sunni war condition.

[Charles I]

Could do worse than starting at The Palestinian Centre For Human Rights, here:

http://www.pchrgaza.org/portal/en/

I see on the right they are reporting fluse of flechette artillery

[Charles I]

So from where ISIS is in Tikrit, can/will they have a go at Baghdad Airport one suddden day?

[Charles I]

Be nice to know somebody's got a bead on those Israeli Cruise missile subs, as I have read some very blustery gonna-pull-my-house-down-on-top-of-everybody Strangeloveian reportage,rumour, fantasy and prognostication of the keep-the-goyim-in-line ilk.

Purported target used to be the Saudi oil fields, but that was before U.S oil independence, who knows where those subs are now, or how many they have?

Can we track all their used German subs? i haven't looked into this for years.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Brigadier Ali,

Similar observations can be made about Turkey. The population is very unhappy about Gaza. The families of Israeli diplomats are leaving. On the other hand, the tayyipist government has been remarkably silent about Gaza. Some newspapers are taking him to task about this, and are reporting that shipments of Kurdish oil to Israel, permitted by the tayyipists, are continuing. Given tayyipists past (and, probably, current) support of Daash (ISIL) a very strange picture is starting to emerge.

Al Sistani's words: "everyone will regret it tomorrow, when regret has no meaning" might come to haunt us...

Ishmael Zechariah

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

I will make it plain:

If you want to fight ISIS or resist it, there is only one single choice:

The Islamic Republic of Iran and her allies.

This choice has been spurned by US and EU.

I am led to conclude that US & EU are not serious about destroying ISIS.