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22 July 2014

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LJ

TTG says: I seriously doubt these right wing thugs would have any problem shooting down an airliner if it would further their mission to destroy the rebels."

We should remember that these Pravy Sector and Swoboda are our guys. The junta has become the government under US training and supervision. Placing the blame on right wing thugs is to dilute the larger and more important picture.

Secondly, the propaganda in the Western press has been supplied with lots of talking points encouraging the "girding of loins" for the inevitable confrontation with Putin.

So far, it seems increasingly unlikely that resistance fighters shot down MH17, and that it was shot down by Ukrainians. If so, it was most likely planned and approved from the top. Given the seemingly well prepared PR rollout in the Western press, this thing was approved and planned by Kiev's handlers.

Finally, don't forget this happened on the first day of Israel's latest invasion of Gaza.

Seamus Padraig

I agree with his statement, too. And I would add that those desperate fools in Washington have now succeeded in pushing the BRICS countries together. Hubris begets Nemesis.

confusedponderer

Mr.,
Svoboda or Pravy Sector goons at the Maidan very probably sniped i.e. murdered protesters and police alike with the clear goal to escalate the protests. They succeeded.

Thugs of the same flavour burnt down that house in Odessa and murdered fourtysomething people. Point is, this is unscrupulous criminal scum.

I can very easily imagine people with such a demonstrated mindset think: "Nothing says sucker like 300 dead civilians."

David Habakkuk

Babak Makkinejad, Anna-Marina,

Broadly speaking, yes to you both.

As an old-style 'perfidious Albionian', I would have done this quite differently.

David Habakkuk

CP,

That is precisely what has been in my mind.

A great deal of modern international relations is a tale of the Lilliputians manipulating Gulliver.

Commonly, the Lilliputians think that Gulliver is – as Hercule Poirot might have put it – not very well equipped with little grey cells.

In relation to the sniper shootings, as you point out, Gulliver was happy simply to recycle the claims made by those whom – to borrow a phrase from Poroshenko – one might call ‘terrorists’.

And before that, Gulliver – together with his sidekicks, like we British – had been quite happy to swallow blatant disinformation which almost brought decisive intervention on behalf of the Lilliputians in Syria: thereby enlisting him in support of the worst kind of Islamist thug.

What conceivable reason would the Ukrainian Lilliputians have had for scepticism about their prospects of doing a new version of the same trick?

VietnamVet

Thanks for the post. The propaganda for the Western side is incredible and was ready to go. Ukraine benefitted from the shot down. The rebels are now framed as incompetent villains.

All the rest is hidden by the fog of war and by omission. FT had a picture and expert comments on a piece of the MH-17 wreckage from below the port cockpit windows. It was riddled with shrapnel from the top front of the plane.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlines-mh17-uk-analysts-pictures-video-reveal-early-clues-missile-explosion-1457773
The video of the black smoke from the burning wreckage showed silver chaff floating down. Together with the Russia briefing, a Ukrainian SU-25 was flying around the area at the time of the shoot down. But, it would be like trying to get an A-10 Warthog high enough and in front of the 777 that is flying faster than the ground attack airplanes and then target it and fire a missile. This would take ground control radar, plotting, precise piloting, and a radar controlled air to air missile. This seems unlikely.

A Ukraine transport at 20,000 feet was shot down the day before by a missile fired by the rebels. The most likely scenario is that an air to ground radar controlled missile was fired that day by the rebels at a Ukrainian plane. I doubt that Flight MH-17 was targeted but it was an accident; set up by Ukraine, or not.

It is very strange that the area is covered by radar, surveillance and satellite by NATO, Ukraine and Russia but no one has publish any documentation that a missile was fired that day or its specific track. What is telling that absolutely no one in the media mentions that the civil war was prompted and continues today with American support. No planes would have been shot down and no life would have been lost if the US had negotiated an end to the civil war. This is proof that the truth no longer matters. Just prep the people for the next Eurasian War.

Castellio

This is an extremely serious misreading of world history.

The first and second world wars were not fought to "push Russia out of Europe". Au contraire, the Germans, the central European power, wanted to integrate western Russia (the home of the great majority of its population) into its own sphere.

And culturally, one of the most important thrusts of the 20th century has been the integration of a modernizing/modernized Russia into European culture. Paris loved Russian music, dance and arts in the early parts of the 20th century. Many of the most important art movements of that century have a genesis there. The Russian influences on European culture go way beyond Tchaikovsky, Tolstoy, Chekhov, Eisenstein, though in includes them as "foundational" to the development of the European (then American) forms of music, novel, drama and film.

This came to an end with Soviet totalitarianism, in its virulent form a result of both wars, but since the end of that, the cultural and economic re-integration with Europe begun and quickened. This integration was desired by both the European and the Russian people.

However, the US lost control of the Russian government post-Yeltsin, and now desires to re-isolate Russia, restarting a Cold War, claiming it an action essential to its own security, based on the (false) principle of "whomever controls Eurasia controls the world". In the details, however, it had everything to do with corporate control of Oil and Gas.

You can read the short term surface of a current altercation, or you can read the long term trends. The US is currently at odds with the long term trends, and the natural development of both Europe and Russia, and more broadly, Eurasia.

The US is now playing the role of Kaiser Germany, wanting to control the integration of Russia into its economic Empire. To do this, it is willing to get in the way of the natural integration of Russia with Europe. (The point is, the French happily made the military supply deal with the Russians.)

Current US and US controlled Nato policy is an unnecessary mistake. Perhaps a tragedy of unimaginable consequence. It will probably, in the long run, lose both Europe and Russia.


bth

David, even in a rural area, a big freak'n rocket launched at 420PM in the middle of the afternoon from a large vehicle It would leave eye witnesses and physical evidence (burn marks, crop damage, mud trails). If it were an element unfriendly to the locals, it seems like we would have heard about it, seen it on youtube or from cell phone pictures or witness testimonials. The local rebels would drag the witnesses to the media. But this hasn't happened and a very large vehicle has vanished from rebel held territory. One would have thought its crew, if it were Ukrainian forces in hostile territory would be chased by farmer folk with pitch forks and Molotovs. And if it were just the local rebels, then where is the huge vehicle? This is not metaphysical. The vehicle and its crew went somewhere.

VietnamVet

Oops. “ground to air missile” in paragraph 3.

One additional point: Commercial airplanes should not have been flying over a warzone where planes have already been shot down. Flights between the USA and Israel have been cancelled today after a rocket landed a mile from Ben Gurion Airport. Malaysian Airlines, Ukraine Air Traffic Control, and Eurocontrol are just as responsible for the loss of life as a soldier who pushes the missile launch button or the Ruling Elite who started and don’t negotiate an end to the Ukrainian Civil War.

William R. Cumming

Thanks for this comment! Almost completely ignorant of history, even its own, the US leadership does not remember Ukrainian Americans and their sympathizers, attempting in the late 30's and early 40's to have the US support incorporation into the 3rd Reich the totality of the Ukraine. This effort revealed in part by Chairman Martin Dies of Texas leading the House Un-American Activities Committee.

Mark Logan

All,

My problems with the theory are motive and risk. The junta was being allowed to shell cities without criticism in the western press, so why would they seek a spotlight? If they did this false flag they risked everything, and how many people would have had to have been in on it? What if it failed to fool the US? If the US was in on it...how well does the US keep secrets these days? Even approaching us with that would be risky as hell.

It would not only be a stupid move but a desperate one, their situation didn't and doesn't appear to be anywhere close to that. At least, not to me...


walrus

I just checked the passenger manifest for MH17 and unless I am mistaken, there was not one American citizen on that flight. I believe this to be way too convenient if indeed the manifest was available to somebody capable of selecting a flight to be targeted.

My limited understanding is that such information would be available in real time to Western intelligence services under the "fighting terrorism" banner.

Furthermore the Russians allege that the military aircraft, allegedly an Su25, appeared to gain height rapidly before the MH17 shoot down. To me, that could be consistent with a "pitch up" manouevre allowing an infra red homing R60 air to air missile carried by the Su25 to lock on.

As for Jons comments on the difficulty of mounting such an operation in secret, I discount them. Simple use of cutouts and compartmentalisation and a little lieing in a war can make all sorts of activities disappear.

Furthermore, it may be that the Su25, if it was in place at all, was there to positively visually identify MH17 as a foreign commercial transport and thus "tag" it as the designated target for a Ukranian Buk battery.

I believe I may be fortified in my belief in Ukranian skulduggery by the confiscation of Ukranian ATC radar tapes and transcripts.

samuelburke

"The junta was being allowed to shell cities without criticism in the western press, so why would they seek a spotlight?"

Maybe cause they were getting their arses kicked everywhere but in the spotlight of the western press.

Anna-Marina

True. There is also a sense of a terribly weakened moral fiber in the US. Basically, there is an almost total loss of honor among the adult men and women in the US government and corporate media. It is tacitly acknowledged that money and power justify everything. This means that the most sycophantic and less qualified obtain the position of power and initiate absurd and disastrous policies, with no personal accountability.
And yes, St. Petersburg, Russia, was the cultural capital of the world for the short years between the First Revolution of 1905 and the WWI.

WP

After reading this and the other posts and topic, there seems to be a constantly swirling of interests and players. I would love to see someone compile an Order of Battle for the whole mid-Asia area.

jon

I believe I did. Thanks for noticing what my fat fingers did not. I think there was something in prior discussion of that possible plane and missile pairing to indicate that the missile would be an unusual armament for it.

jon

Why yes. The president of a nation accused another nation of cold bloodedly killing three hundred civilians without warning, without actually saying any of it.

But he only resorted to that after the trial balloon of the Ukraine attempting to target his own plane fell flat.

jon

Dear me, David, I have read that. My takeaway from it was that any possible use of that plane in that mission would have been operating at the very limits of its performance envelope, and any hope of success would have required a highly skilled pilot and a great deal of luck.

Unfortunately, it was also previously asserted by others that the putative Ukrainian plane was flying closely behind the airliner, in order to hide in the shadow of its radar signature. I'm not sure it can be had both ways.

That SU-25 would have had a closing speed of about 75 mph, and would not have achieved the same height as MH17. From that, I will gather that they presented two distinct radar signatures to an appreciable amount of time, prior to possibly merging.

If the Buk could identify the SU-25, then they also ought to have been able to notice an additional 777. Launching the SA-11 when they knew a civilian airliner was proximate to their target would take this tragedy from mistake to willful negligence, to perhaps something worse.

I suppose the ground crew destroyed the airliner to prevent it from being shot out of the sky by the SU-25?

For the present, and until contradictory evidence is presented, I'll just go with the premise that one or more rebel/Russian radar operators misidentified MH17, and that there were no SU25s or Antonovs in that immediate area at that time.

jon

As I believe I mentioned, Ukraine has claimed that one of their fighters and one of their transports was shot down by missiles fired from Russian MiGs. Russia certainly operated at the line of the border with Georgia, if not over it. Why wouldn't Ukraine place air defense as near their border as they could in the present circumstances? Perhaps they are anticipating the rebels acquiring their own aircraft in some fashion?

Maybe the Ukrainians got tired of leaving their Buks in the depots for the rebels to take?

I have already discussed the possibility of Ukraine firing the missile that destroyed MH17, and found that theory wanting on technical as well as political grounds. I find it much more probable that rebels launched the fatal missile from a location approximately fifty miles east of Donetsk (where there have been multiple civilian reports of the launchers being) resulting in the jet landing approximately ten miles from that point.

jon

David, some parts of that terrain seem to be sparsely populated. However, like much of Europe, there are villages and hamlets and farm holdings throughout. You might want to consult Google Earth for that area forty to fifty miles or so due East of Donetsk, where the Guardian has multiple eyewitness reports and at least one photo of the Buk being brought through. Tears the roads up, it does. Two jeeps in front, one behind. The neighbors especially complained about how loud the motor of the Buk was, much louder than the tanks they're used to.

The area can also be seen to have hills, forests, marshes rivers and other features that would slow down a missile carrier. Certainly hamper a secretive behind the scenes incursion force seeking to avoid the main roads and their observant neighbors and armed checkpoints.

I'm sure the Ukrainian government would be only too eager to inveigle the dimwitted rebels into committing an international atrocity. In this case, with or without Occam, it seems that the rebels were up to the job themselves.

G. I. Hazeltine

Is sociopathocracy a word?

confusedponderer

Jon,
when assuming Russian guilt you tried to bolster your case by saying: "There are many facts that are known, and others will be coming to light soon"

Indeed. For instance like that there's no there there.

US: No link to Russian gov't in plane downing

"The intelligence officials said the most likely explanation for the downing was that the rebels made a mistake. Separatists previously had shot down 12 Ukrainian military airplanes, the officials said.

The officials made clear they were relying in part on social media postings and videos made public in recent days by the Ukrainian government, even though they have not been able to authenticate all of it. For example, they cited a video of a missile launcher said to have been crossing the Russian border after the launch, appearing to be missing a missile.

But later, under questioning, the officials acknowledged they had not yet verified that the video was exactly what it purported to be."

http://news.yahoo.com/us-no-russian-govt-plane-downing-212220665--politics.html

*Polite cough*

Sooo ... they are sure it was a Buk fired by separatists - because of what the Svobodaites in Ukraine's National Security Council told them and based the social media material provided by the West-Ukrainians, but they haven't verified any of that. Yet. But they are certain.

It stretches belief.

That is all they have? Just that? And yet they are certain? This is all the more reason to doubt the assertion that it weas the separatists either, because it is woven of the same thin thread.

The logic by which the US administration is trying to pin it on Russia anyway is simply atrocious: The argument goes 'IF it was the separatists, the Russians are responsible anyway, because they "created the conditions" in which the shoot down happened.

Just how so?

Washington does as if the separatists, without Russian support, wouldn't persist against West-Ukrainian attacks, and as if the separatists would need Russian incitement to take notice that the goons from Lviv are out to get them?

When the separatists shoot at Ukrainian government aircraft that is for a reason, and the reason is that Ukrainian government aircraft bomb them and East-Ukrainian cities, egged on by the US to continue their 'counter terrorism operations'.

In Syria, Libya and Iraq Kiev's conduct would have triggered a US response best summed up as "OHMYGOD OHMYGOD OHMYGOD! Assad/Ghaddafi/Saddam, the swine, is using his air force on his own people!"

The US could with the exact same argument blamed Kiev to have been responsible for "creating a climate in which aircraft are being shot at". It was a political choice made in DC to blame the Russians instead.

Svoboda, a party for West-Ukrainians only, wanted to ban Russian as an official language in a country with 40+% Russian speaking citizens. That was benign, obviously, and only Putins vile incitement made the East Ukrainians resent that? What?

I mean, Kiev is rather clearly saying: 'Hey Russian-Jewish-Muscovite-Commie East Ukraine, you are terrorist parasites and we hate you, now, would you civilly disarm and prepare for second class citizenship before we beat you up?'

What an enticing offer. Indeed, how can they possibly refuse such generosity? If not for Putin ... that devil.

Ulenspiegel

Addenda:

1) The Sukhoi, producer of the SU-25, company still provides a maximum ceiling of 7 km on their English page:

http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su25k/lth/

These 7km are as stated for the "naked" plane.

2) As long as there is absolutely no evidence for a IR seeker missile hitting an engine of the Boeing, but for a SAM, the more likely explanation shoul be followed.


Ulenspiegel

CP wrote: "The rebels shoot at what they thought to be a Su-25 aircraft, and shot down MH17. Jamming may have contributed to that outcome."

This scenario does not make sense even with the data used by the Russian general in the press conference.

The BUK is a semi active(?) system therefoer the radar has to be operated during the flight of the missile, a distance of 5 km between the Boeing and the alleged SU-25 would not allow your proposed result, according to airforce guys.

When used as a stand alone system, the BUK has no secondary radar, which would allow the identification of civilian airplanes by electronic means.

Joe100

A thoughtful summary of the real evidence so far (the best I have seen) is up today at

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=11177

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