Middle East Diary - 22 July 2014

 

While conventional states try to win hearts and minds abroad before necessarily resorting to military force, the jihadist group is also achieving its aims by psychological means - backed up by a reputation for extreme violence.

The Islamic State, which in June captured a vast stretch of territory in the north including the largest city Mosul, used this strategy when its fighters met armed resistance from the town of al-Alam for 13 days running.

They kidnapped 30 local families and rang up the town's most influential citizens with a simple message about the hostages: "You know their destiny if you don't let us take over the town."

 

Within hours, tribesmen and local leaders caved in to save the families. The black flag of the Sunni militants, who are bent on overthrowing the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government, was soon flying over government buildings and police stations in al-Alam."  Reuters

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 This kind of population control works.  I have seen it many times, but it also fuels a future resistance that will begin when assistance in money and arms begins to flow to those who will wish to resist.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/22/us-iraq-security-islamicstate-insight-idUSKBN0FR0JU20140722

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"H.E. Lukman Faily told an audience at an Atlantic Council event in Washington that for the US and Iraq “to conduct counterterrorism operations in urban areas occupied by ISIL, we need precision US air attacks,” and that “the US should offer air support targeting terrorist camps and supply convoys in remote areas.”

American air strikes would also “protect Iraq’s borders against further terrorist influx” the ambassador said, since key elements of ISIL have flowed across the porous Iraq/Syria border in the past several months, giving the group freedom of movement across the Sunni-dominated western Iraq and eastern Syria.

Last week, almost 70 House Democrats sent a letter to President Barack Obama demanding congressional approval before ordering any offensive American military operations in Iraq, telling the president that “as you consider options for US intervention, we write to urge respect for the constitutional requirements for using force abroad.” The Democrats were joined by nine Republicans on the letter."  Defense News

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This is not going to happen.  The rump government of Iraq now located in Baghdad was unable to defend itself and its territory against what was initially a few thousand lightly armed men.  It then failed in a counteroffensive attampt at Tikrit with yet more losses in men and equipment.   The Kurds have already begun to sell oil from the Kirkuk area fields they recently captured.   Iraq is powerless to do anything about that. Finito.  pl  

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140721/DEFREG04/307210015

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"Television pictures showed the senior police officers being led outside in handcuffs with some raising their handcuffed hands above their heads in a show of defiance.

The Hurriyet daily said on its website that simultaneous raids were conducted in 22 cities across Turkey.

The suspects are accused of espionage, illegal wire-tapping, forgery in official documents, violation of privacy, fabricating evidence, and violation of secrecy of investigation, the reports said.

Istanbul's prosecutor's office said in a statement that the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) Hakan Fidan was among the key figures who were wiretapped.

Erdogan has accused supporters of Gulen of holding excessive influence in the country's police and judiciary and concocting a graft scandal to unseat his government ahead of March local polls.

Erdogan's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a decisive victory in those local polls, and the prime minister is now standing in elections for president to be held on August 10."  Ahram on Line

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Erdogan is following the usual ME pattern of suppression of political enemies.  This seems to be working well for him.  He now says that he does not speak to Obama anymore because Obama does not obey with regard to Syria and Gaza.  I have been waiting for several years for signs of life in the secular Turkish republic that I once lived in.  If there is such life, it is invisible.  pl  

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/106814/World/Region/Turkey-arrests-over--senior-police-officers-in-new.aspx

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/106820/World/Region/I-no-longer-talk-to-Obama-Turkeys-Erdogan.aspx 

Comments

[turcopolier]

kunuri

"Now the GIs on R&R I meet around there say they are Canadians at first." It was nothing like that. Except for the hospital professional staff all those facilities were run for us either by the Turkish military or Turkish civilian employees. So, these facilities made a contribution to the local economy. I walked to work every day down Birinci Kordon to ALFSEE a few blocks away. Quite a few Americans married Turkish women. pl

[Matthew]

Charles: I guess Congress will have to stay home and actually vacation in America.

[Matthew]

Kunuri: And what have Turkish secularists ever done for Palestine? Now, at least, Erdogan is condemning Israeli violence. Crocodile tears sometimes are better than no tears at all.

[Farooq]

Most new browsers have built in spell checker. I use Chrome (Firefox is great too). It puts a red underline when it detects a spelling mistake. If you right click on it, you will see suggestions for correct spellings. There is an awesome chrome extension "Google dictionary" that can be installed from within Chrome using Chrome web store and is pretty awesome.

You probably knew already but just in case :)

[Charles I]

Thanks Kunuri, school is in today, depressingly informative, from a not very proud Canadian

[Kunuri]

I refuse to accept the hypocratical exploitation of crocodile tears and the degradation of emotional validity of shedding tears for political vaudville.

[CTuttle]

-Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is losing political support for his bid for a third term from core backers, including the country's Shiite religious establishment and ally Iran, say Iraqi officials.

The shift, officials said, is prompting members of the premier's own alliance to reconsider their support and dimming the prospect of his stay in power.

In recent days, high-level delegations of Iranian military officials and diplomats held a flurry of meetings in Baghdad and the Shiite religious capital Najaf, where they were told that Mr. Maliki, a Shiite, has lost the confidence of all but his most loyal inner circle, Iraqi officials with knowledge of the meetings said.

One Iraqi official briefed on the meetings said Iranian representatives signaled during their visit that Tehran has " really started to lean away from Maliki as a candidate."

Also critically, Mr. Maliki's bid to stay in office has, say prominent Shiite politicians, run into opposition from Iraq's top Shiite spiritual authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has become central to the grinding talks between political blocs to form a government.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/iraqi-leader-maliki-loses-backing-of-shiite-figure-and-iran-for-new-term-20140722-01270#ixzz38El0VNa8

[Kunuri]

All right Albayim, as you say many American servicemen married Turkish women from Alsancak, love of my life, göne now, I met in Las Vegas, turns out her mom married a GI there around 70s and she grew up in Kordon area before moving to LV. She was very much Turkish American and her Mom ran a bar in Kordon with her GI husband for 2 decades before selling out and moving back to US. They were all lovely people. Though i would caution anyone here to think twice before marrying a Turkish woman, unless they are absolutely sure about their marriage wows.

[Kunuri]

I got time in my hands today Charles, I don't mean to be a bore. I aspire to be as polite and unassuming as the lovely Canadians I know and that is something for you to be proud of.

[different clue]

An interesting media juxtaposition could be made of past Israeli spokesfolk voicing fear, terror, and outrage over the deadly rockets landing with lethal accuracy and effect upon the citizens of Israel . . . with this Israeli spokesperson dismissing the very same kind of rockets as ineffective firecrackers just for show and certainly nothing to cause worry about airport/airplane safety.
The video-case could almost suggest itself that Israeli spokesfolk have stumbled into an internal contradiction over the danger or harmlessness of those self-same rockets "then" and "now". If the proper videos could be found and played together in sequence back-to-back or somehow.

[Cee]

Hezbollah said they plan to step in so I called the FAA to tell them to extend the boycott. Fingers crossed.
I hope Israel will now feel trapped like those in Gaza and only rely on El Al. I wonder how many dual citizens they can import for the battle on that?
Peter King is on now...blah, blah...poor Israel is being picked on.

[different clue]

I had not heretofor heard that the Tayyiban and the Gulenists both were controlled by Israeli/neo-con interests. Were such interests involved at the founding of either or both of the two movements? Or did either or both of the Tayyiban and the Gulenists come under Israeli/neo-con control and/or influence sometime after their initial founding? Is there any evidence of such control and/or analysis of such evidence? Not to repeat myself or snything, but this is the first time I have read or heard this theory of Tayyipism and/or Gulenism.

[steve]

Cee,

I understand the spirit behind what you are saying, but in this day and age I think you take a risk by saying it.

[FB Ali]

Ambassador Chas Freeman made a presentation yesterday in Washington on US foreign policy and the future of the Middle East. As usual with him, it is a brilliant, insightful and frank analysis of the situation. This is his conclusion:

"The more likely outcome of our current blend of baffled hesitancy, diplomatic ineptitude, and militarism is therefore that events will take their course. That means the growth of a credible existential threat to Israel, a prospective political explosion in Egypt, the disintegration of Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria along with Palestine, and the diversion of a considerable part of the resources of these countries to terrorism in the region and against the American homeland".

http://chasfreeman.net/obamas-foreign-policy-and-the-future-of-the-middle-east/

[FB Ali]

I would suggest that whether Maliki stays or goes is not going to make much of a difference to anything.

It certainly won't reconcile the Iraqi Sunnis (and Kurds) with the Shia, and restore any kind of unified polity.

[turcopolier]

steve

I caution you against making intimidating remarks here.pl

[CTuttle]

I agree but who will rally the Iraki Shi'a now? One that will satisfy both the Persians and Irakis?

[Mark Logan]

FB,

Just adding. Chas Freeman was at a think-tank on CSPAN yesterday and gave that and much, much more.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?320556-1/discussion-president-obamas-middle-east-policy

One of the things he described was the peril in over-use of our banking sanctions, which came up in Q&A. I hope folks are paying attention.

[steve]

I didn't create the state of intimidation that exists regarding electronic speech in this country. The security and intelligence communities have done that quite well.

My remark was a reflection of that state of affairs.

[Castellio]

Thanks for the heads up on the Freeman.

[sixpacksongs]

FB Ali and CTuttle -
I really have no business posting here, but for the sake of argument I would like to repost part of a posting I put up back in mid-June (apologies) for the extended quote, if the Colonel permits:

"There's no way this marriage of convenience between the Baathists and ISIS can last. There is going to be a very bloody divorce. Also, no population that has come under the control of groups like ISIS has been satisfied for long...just remember what happened a few years ago to Al Quada in Iraq in the Anbar region when the tribes rose against them as the Sons of Iraq (their successes falsely attributed to our "surge").

"Muqtada al-Sadr, the occasional thorn in our side during the Iraq occupation, sometimes made comments looking for common cause with some Sunni elements. His appeal was class-based, often, as opposed to strictly sectarian. That history could be helpful, if he could do something unusual for a leader in that part of the world: admit past errors.

"So, with all the pieces in place, here's the suggestion. Work behind the scenes to contact Izzat Ibrahim and al-Sadr. They both have an interest against ISIS and against al-Maliki. Suggest that Grand Ayatollah Sistani encourage al-Sadr to renounce the excesses of certain Shia units such as the Badr Brigades. Build a coalition between Ibrahim's forces and al-Sadr's forces based on class - honoring the older Baath tradition of socialist orientation with the recognition that everyone of all sects are suffering. Use US resources such as drone, manned, and satellite surveillance to provide proper and accurate locational intelligence for anti-ISIS forces. Coordinate Ibrahim's, al-Sadr's, Iraqi Army, and Iranian Quds Force commandos with limited US air support to perform a St Bartholomew's Day on the ISIS forces. And get everyone to agree that this happens without al-Maliki and he goes. Dump him (I'm fuzzy on this point), re-establish a balanced interim government NOT INCLUDING al-Sadr, Ibrahim, or his son al-Douri, and try again for fair elections in a year.

"The Kurds? They can be very useful in containing the northern section of the ISIS et al occupied areas. However, they would need to withdraw from Kirkuk back to their territory, and Baghdad would have to reinstate the proper distribution payments which have been suspended for the past several months. Just for grins, many nations should twist Ankara's arm a bit to give a little more on Kurdish issues as a further inducement for the Iraqi Kurds to return to their areas.

"I know this seems impossible - working with many "enemies" on all sides. Also, what comes out in a few dozen words is clearly on the simplified side. But this is a potentially devastating crisis in that part of the world, and I would hope that at least a few of these ideas are useful and that someone in authoritah is considering them. The other elephant in the room is Tel Aviv. Much of what I am suggesting is anathema to Israel and its never-ending roster of sycophants here in the US power structure. Again, while we're talking the impossible - fuck them. Either we bite the bullet, act like grown-ups, and do what we have to in order to fix this nightmare situation which we created (the "Pottery Barn" rule, h/t Gen Powell), or we shut up - all of our pundits and politicians - and welcome our new Israeli overlords like the good goyim we are."

Obviously, I am coming from a naive position w/r to the various factors and forces in Iraq and here at home, and some events - such as the Kurdish breakout - may have rendered parts of the above moot; but it is absolute that there is no possibility to "restore any kind of unified polity", or worse, that there was a possibility a month ago and the various actors have squandered it?

Apologies, respect, and thanks!

[Highlander]

Kunuri,

I am sorry your days are not as good as they could be in Turkey.

But speaking as a religious nut, that is what happens, when you secularist go to sleep at the switch.

Keep your head down amigo. Drink a little wine and chill. What goes around comes around.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Differentclue:

http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2014/01/18/turkish-pm-erdogan-the-speedy-transformation-of-an-imperial-puppet/

http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2011/01/06/turkish-intel-chief-exposes-cia-operations-via-islamic-group-in-central-asia/

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2013/june/12/the-uprising-against-brother-erdogan.aspx

Ishmael Zechariah

[Cee]

I don't care. I was laughing as a dragonfly kept zooming in toward the windshield of my car today and I told my husband it was probably a spy drone taking pictures. : )

[Cee]

Thanks P!

I'm sure he was just giving helpful advice. I'm just a housewife who reads a lot that nobody is concerned about. ; )