Middle East Diary - 22 July 2014

 

While conventional states try to win hearts and minds abroad before necessarily resorting to military force, the jihadist group is also achieving its aims by psychological means - backed up by a reputation for extreme violence.

The Islamic State, which in June captured a vast stretch of territory in the north including the largest city Mosul, used this strategy when its fighters met armed resistance from the town of al-Alam for 13 days running.

They kidnapped 30 local families and rang up the town's most influential citizens with a simple message about the hostages: "You know their destiny if you don't let us take over the town."

 

Within hours, tribesmen and local leaders caved in to save the families. The black flag of the Sunni militants, who are bent on overthrowing the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government, was soon flying over government buildings and police stations in al-Alam."  Reuters

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 This kind of population control works.  I have seen it many times, but it also fuels a future resistance that will begin when assistance in money and arms begins to flow to those who will wish to resist.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/22/us-iraq-security-islamicstate-insight-idUSKBN0FR0JU20140722

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"H.E. Lukman Faily told an audience at an Atlantic Council event in Washington that for the US and Iraq “to conduct counterterrorism operations in urban areas occupied by ISIL, we need precision US air attacks,” and that “the US should offer air support targeting terrorist camps and supply convoys in remote areas.”

American air strikes would also “protect Iraq’s borders against further terrorist influx” the ambassador said, since key elements of ISIL have flowed across the porous Iraq/Syria border in the past several months, giving the group freedom of movement across the Sunni-dominated western Iraq and eastern Syria.

Last week, almost 70 House Democrats sent a letter to President Barack Obama demanding congressional approval before ordering any offensive American military operations in Iraq, telling the president that “as you consider options for US intervention, we write to urge respect for the constitutional requirements for using force abroad.” The Democrats were joined by nine Republicans on the letter."  Defense News

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This is not going to happen.  The rump government of Iraq now located in Baghdad was unable to defend itself and its territory against what was initially a few thousand lightly armed men.  It then failed in a counteroffensive attampt at Tikrit with yet more losses in men and equipment.   The Kurds have already begun to sell oil from the Kirkuk area fields they recently captured.   Iraq is powerless to do anything about that. Finito.  pl  

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140721/DEFREG04/307210015

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"Television pictures showed the senior police officers being led outside in handcuffs with some raising their handcuffed hands above their heads in a show of defiance.

The Hurriyet daily said on its website that simultaneous raids were conducted in 22 cities across Turkey.

The suspects are accused of espionage, illegal wire-tapping, forgery in official documents, violation of privacy, fabricating evidence, and violation of secrecy of investigation, the reports said.

Istanbul's prosecutor's office said in a statement that the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) Hakan Fidan was among the key figures who were wiretapped.

Erdogan has accused supporters of Gulen of holding excessive influence in the country's police and judiciary and concocting a graft scandal to unseat his government ahead of March local polls.

Erdogan's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a decisive victory in those local polls, and the prime minister is now standing in elections for president to be held on August 10."  Ahram on Line

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Erdogan is following the usual ME pattern of suppression of political enemies.  This seems to be working well for him.  He now says that he does not speak to Obama anymore because Obama does not obey with regard to Syria and Gaza.  I have been waiting for several years for signs of life in the secular Turkish republic that I once lived in.  If there is such life, it is invisible.  pl  

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/106814/World/Region/Turkey-arrests-over--senior-police-officers-in-new.aspx

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/106820/World/Region/I-no-longer-talk-to-Obama-Turkeys-Erdogan.aspx 

Comments

[oofda]

In a related ME News item, Delta Airlines cancelled flights to Isreal until further notice, citing a rocket that landed near Ben Gurion Airport. A plane flying over the Med turned around in mid-air and instead landed in Paris

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/22/delta-cancels-flights-israel

[Matthew]

Col: the moral road is on a severe downward slope. Compare article to comments that follow it. See http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2014_07/israels_warnings_dont_make_the051279.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+washingtonmonthly%2Frss+%28Political+Animal+at+Washington+Monthly%29

[Fred]

Col.,

"I have been waiting for several years for signs of life in the secular Turkish republic that I once lived in. If there is such life, it is invisible."

This appears to be very bad news for the people of Turkey.

[oofda]

Actually the FAA just suspended flights into Ben Gurion Airport- just released a NOTAM.

he Federal Aviation Administration has suspended flights into Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport for the next twenty-four hours after a rocket landed less than a mile away on Tuesday morning.

The agency issued a Notice to Airmen at 12:15 p.m. which applies to all U.S.-based airlines. Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines had all halted flights to Tel Aviv just prior to the FAA's decision.

"The FAA will continue to monitor and evaluate the situation," the agency said. "Updated instructions will be provided to U.S. airlines as soon as conditions permit, but no later than 24 hours from the time the NOTAM went into force."

[Charles I]

All flights tonight to Ben Gurion appear to be being cancelled now

[Kunuri]

Albayim, that bucolic Turkish Republic you once worked in Alsancak,Izmir, within the NATO Southestern Command Compound, not as heavily guarded but almost invisible presently, right by the lively esplanade of Bay of Izmir is long gone. That is the scene I knew as a young adolescent before I migrated to US. It is stil full of cafes and restaurants, but the mood and feel is different.

Turkey today experiences a total breakdown of identity, statehood, class relations and intellectual polarization. Recent economic success and conservative electoral victories of AKP and RTE has changed the character of this country irrepairably. The gains of past 90 years of social and political advances are sacrificied for ideology disquised as religious freedom but in fact nothing but economic dictotorship based on crassest of capitalist principals. Naturally, moral corruption, dictatorial edicts, silencing of free press, emasculation of the Army through conspiracy, politization of the justice system, de populurization of educational systems, and cruel silencing of dissent, and the blunting of arts and letters other than those of tradtional folksy ones has been all serving only one purpose.

RTE and his Tayyiban once were the darling of the Neocons, that’s how they came into power. I can not site presently but they are well seminarized on the arts of dirty politics straight out of Carl Rove school. I know their tactics, because I lived in US through 80s and 90s continously as a liberal activist and was enlightened politically. Sickens me to see it all happen in Turkey, right down to character assasinations of politicos in the media, daily talking points, swiftboadings, Willy Hortons, video recordings, even their own Rush Limbos by dozens.

There has been a class war in Turkey fort he past 12 years, and those least qualified have won. A secular, enlightened, world connected and savvy intellectual or entrepereneour strata has no chance to succeed unless they toe the line, grow a Clark Gable mustache and be seen in the mosque frequently.

One would think the Minister of Foreign affairs of Turkey is qualified to lead a respectable nation like Turkey, think again. There are literally a thousand more people in Turkey for such a post, 100 times more qualified than him, but they now belong to the wrong class, a class that actually belongs to the West, pretty much in the direction Ataturk has set Turkey on. Instead, official Turkey openly supports ISIS, Hamas and Hizbullah in Lebenon.

The Religious oriented TV station I created the news sets for recently has 70 plus employees, has no ad income and is entirely supported by hot, unaccounted for Hizbullah and Iranian money. Hell, I met the Iranian backers as I was setting up the studio, they were a little bit fallen back of my warm greeting and unmistakable folksy American accent. Needless to say, the TV station stiffed me of my last payment. We will see if Turkish commercial law still applies, but I doubt it.

To come to the point, I do not see a reversal any decade coming soon short of an apocolyptic calamity or 9/11 type of event, untill then the sleeping masses in Turkey will support the current regime. Nothing to be expected of the political opposation, maybe a little bit from the world connected youth, as we have seen last year. I was there. I just wonder when the West will realize there is a Putin in the making here, I hope sooner than later. But what the hell, there is stil the sun, the beach and west and south Mediterrenean part of Turkey to enjoy where I am at my summer house currently. Not to mention Istanbul, where I live and work as a double expat.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

I worked in the ALFSEE command building on Birinci Kordon. The bay was across the street. We lived further down the street on Birinci Kordon. pl

[Matthew]

All: From Pax Americana to ordinari-ana. See http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0FR15Z20140722

Our Secretary of State was wanded in Cairo?

[Farooq]

Kunuri,
Thanks for your insightful perspective on Turkish politics. It is disheartening to see Erdogan grow authoritarian and rollback Turkey's Kemalist character that was forward looking unlike the rest of the muslim countries.

However, i have seen some criticism of kemalists that seems legitimate (from a distance at least). The criticism is that the "fruits" of Kemalism remained with anatolian "elite" in western Turkey, specially the economic and social mobility. The majority of more rural and more "religious" Turks were precluded from it. The economic turnaround that Erdogan has been able to create has benefited these folks in the eastern heartland. So my question is why did the people who held power and championed Kemalism prior to the emergence of Erdogan, failed to bring about an economic turn around and create a stake for everyone in that pie?

Again i really enjoy your posts and insights regarding Turkey so keep up the great work.

[Kunuri]

That building you mention which was the ALFSEE, great and cute name by the way, was taken over by the Turkish Army about a dozen years ago when that command was moved elsewhere and restored, modernized and converted to an Army Officers Mess Compound Orduevi. Its restricted to Army officers retired, living or dead or active and their relatives. Since my late father was an Army Colonel I have a card and access. Whenever I am there I enjoy the great view over a Raki with a lot of old and young soldiers and start lively discussions. Very fascinating. You and many here would find it interesting as well, i am sure.

[Matthew]

Kunuri: Phony or not, Erdogan knows how to shame the "good people." See http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/in-rare-move-turkey-declares-three-days-of-mourning-for-gaza.aspx?PageID=238&NID=69439&NewsCatID=338

[turcopolier]

kunuri

In those days there was a USAF run officer's mess down the Kordon in what had been a hotel. there was a USAF air base support group that ran all the services for Allied Land Forces South East Europe (ALFSEE) and the 6th Allied Tactical Air Force hq. Among the facilities were a hospital, enlisted club, commissary store, PX, movie theater, rod and gun club, liquor store, SCUBA club. There was a grammar school and high school for dependent children. Our modern, two bedroom apartment cost about $110/month. My housing allowance was more than that. Life was good. I was there two years and then back to VN. pl

[Kunuri]

It can be depressing Fred, but Turkey is so rich and has so much to offer and so much latent strength that it would be impossible to finish it, which is my patent argument when my less informed friends both in Europe an Turkey make the same point when US is in dire straights every once in a while. "Amerika finish, no longer World power, moral implosion" blah blah blah...

[Kunuri]

That would be the place Albayim, and that hospital is still there infoumously as far as I am concerned, they refused to treat my fiancee for intestinal infection even though her stepfather was a Navy officer and she had a base card in 1988 during a brief visit. That whole area of Birinci Kordon, at one time was an America Town, I still meet someone here and there who knew and loved the place as an Armed Forces dependent mostly in 70s.

[Kunuri]

Farooq, I refer you to a wonderful book called "Why Nations Fail", to offer expansion to your very insightful comments above. Exclusive systems eventually implode and fail, while inclusive ones, backed by neutral, representetive, and foresightful systems succeed, even within half a century of radical change. Refer to French revolution and following 50 years.

Kemalism unfortunetly turned exclusive after Ataturk's untimely demişe, he was one of the most inclusive of leaders of his era in Word and deed.He introduced universal education and latin alphabet just for that reason. By sheer force of will, when needed. He coined the term for the downtrodden and hard wrought out Turkish peasantry "The peasants are the overlords of this country". Unfortunetely, opportunists riding over the coattails of such a statesman, managed to crowd out anyone WHO did not fit their own fake, opportunistic mold. It is no different now as far as exclusive politics are concerned, an implosion is inevitable, sooner or later.

[Kunuri]

Oh, OK, I read that rag everyday, in Turkish.

Meanwhile Erdogan's own son ferries goods merrily to Isreael on his little ships which he got to own by free credits from banks that are buddies with his daddy. Destlled jet fuel exports to Israel is up by a thousand percent just prior to invasion, there are already a couple of exlcusive oil deals signed with Israel for Kerkük oil, not to mention water deals and overall trade with Israel is up by very significant percentage since the famous one minute dress down of Perez at Davos. Crocodile tears for fools, they lap this stuff up. The idiom did not even exist in Turkish 10 years ago, some rich kid on daddy's dime probably picked it up in college in US.

[Kunuri]

One more point Albayim, then I will digress to more depressing stuff, that apartment you rented for 110 US back then now is no less than 1,000,000 US to buy.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

The officers' club and ALFSEE were on the waterfront, but all the other facilities were scattered all over town and we lived among the people and wandered around at will in the restaurants, bazaar, etc. the USAF had leased the Catholic cathedral as a chapel. the Brits had a church of their own and a club. pl

[Kunuri]

"So my question is why did the people who held power and championed Kemalism prior to the emergence of Erdogan, failed to bring about an economic turn around and create a stake for everyone in that pie? "

It is in the natüre of precluvity to exlusiveness to keep others out, and do whatever neccessary to do so, down to deadly civil war. See Syria case. Also Spain, Nicaragua, Iran, and Lebonan. And many more others...Perhaps one exclusion would be the British example after the civil wars of 17th century.

I apologize for many typos, I am spell checking old school, the laptop i have with has only Turkish Microsoft Word.

[Farooq]

Thank you for your response Kunuri.

I did read "Why nations fail" and i agree it is a great book.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Kunuri,

Thanks for very nice post about our country. I would say that the tayyiban are still creatures of the neo-cons. What has been going on in rallies, etc. is pure theater. The falling out of the two bands of thieves, the tayyiban and the gulenists-- both controlled by the israeli/neo-con interests-- may give us a chance. Right now the fight is between the Saudis and Iranians for the control of Turkey. If the Iranians win, the Kurds will be in deep trouble.

Paraphrasing Al Sistani, everyone will regret bringing these bastards to power tomorrow, when regret has no meaning.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Kunuri]

I heard an Israeli spokesman today spinning that, thinking the listening public are infants, said that, those rockets were only ground to ground rockets with no gudence systems, unlike the Russian ones, and fell off inaccuretly two miles away. So, nothing to worry about, they are just oversized firecrackers. I would like to tickle the law of probabilities a little, what if, by chance, one of those big firecrackers fell on a runway, directly on the path of a landing or taking off of a big lumbering Jumbo jet? Like a big speed bump that came out of nowhere? Then WHO needs a guidence system, poof!
But like I said here before, this is 21st century, you dont need huge rocket artilery systems to close off a system. Just the creation of a perception of an international airport being unsafe by lodging a big firecracker two miles away and having it on CNN and social media for 5 minutes. It is no different than a Las Vegas production show of magic, sexy showgirls, and loud music. Israilies are in panic, because someone usurped their playbook.

[Kunuri]

Thanks Ishmael, for accepting my Tayyiban branding argument and using it creatively in your comments, which i agree, as usual. It is a fun name, no?

[Kunuri]

Now the GIs on R&R I meet around there say they are Canadians at first.

[Kunuri]

Tayyiban seems to be winning, or at least forcing the Gulenistas underground where they belong. Where they were before RTE anyway. Gulenistas are also a creation of Neocons, but of a slightly Evangelist wing of them. They aim for the same rapture moment anyway, I am sure you are aware of that unholly allience."We want the big boom together, each of our Gods will then sort out WHO is the more righteous."