Gaza Diary - 17 July 2014

 

JC, an old Army friend  with long experience in Israel and Gaza sent me the following today.

"In that the current situation is unfolding somewhat similar to the 2006 Lebanon "fiasco", I am forwarding a brief summary of the Winograd Commission (edited, but courtesy of Wikipedia). I suspect that we may see a repeat of the final statement. 

According to the Winograd Commission Report, the Second Lebanon War was regarded as a "missed opportunity" and that "Israel initiated a long war, which ended without a defined military victory". The report continued to state that "a semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technology advantages". Furthermore, Hezbollah's rocket attacks continued throughout the war and the IDF did not provide an effective response to it. Following a long period of using standoff firepower and limited ground activities, the IDF launched a large-scale ground offensive close to the UN Security Council's resolution which imposed a cease-fire. "This offensive did not result in military gains and was not completed".

..."The fact Israel went to war before it decided which option to
select and without an exit strategy, all these constituted serious failures of the decision making process.""  JC


As JC observes this situation appears similar.  Once again, Israel has initiated hostilities with an Arab group without any clear idea of the result to be rationally expected or of an "exit plan" from the war itself.  The "strategic thnking' involved appears to have consisted of an unbounded hatred for the Palestinians and a desire to smash and humble them while using the worldwide resources of the Zionist cause to silence criticism.   A humilation like that which resulted from the Second Lebanon War now seems likely to emerge from a "permanent" cease fire unless Israel decides to "double down' in a large scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-idUSKBN0FI04420140717

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-britain-idUSKBN0FM1DX20140717

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_Commission

 

Comments

[Former11B]

In case anybody doesn't realize how for gone the American media really is.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/07/17/nbc-removes-ayman-mohyeldin-gaza-coverage-witnesses-israeli-beach-killing-four-boys/

So now you know that NBC is firmly in the tank.

Disgusting

David Verdi needs to be asked directly why this happened.

[Matthew]

Col: For the Palestinians, the re-occupation of the Gaza Strip would have certain advantages, i.e., Israeli "responsibility" that GOI now eludes because of Gaza's siege-sovereignty. And, of course, lots of close IDF targets.

[oofda]

In a development in another hotspot, a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 was just reported being shot down over eastern Ukraine. 295 people were aboard- all dead. The Ukrainian armed forces and the separatist forces are blaming each other. Both are reported to have "Buk" missile system, which has the altitude range (46,000') to hit the airliner, which was cruising at 33,000'.

[Ryan]

The Winograd Commission is wrong to call Hezbollah "a semi-military organization". Hezbollah is the best light infantry of the Arab world and easily in the top five of the World's militaries in this field. Over the years this army has evolved from a guerrilla force to that of a profession military. They are highly trained, well led and possess equipment that ranges from good weaponry to superb communication equipment. Their signal intercept capability is excellent as the Izzies found out to their dismay back in 2006 when they had their heads handed to them by Hezbollah forces. This link used to take one to a good book of that war. I'm glad I downloaded it when I had the chance:

27580074-Lebanon-2006-How-Hezbollah-Defeated-Israel.pdf

It might be possible to find a cache version using the link above.

For all practical purposes Hezbollah is Lebanon's army.

If the Israelis decide to go in they better hope Hamas hasn't learned how to fight in towns like Hezbollah was able to back in 2006.

The twittering twits of ISIS are claiming to have overrun the airfield at COB Spreicher and control most of the base. This is where the IA forces trying to take Tikrit withdrew to.

https://twitter.com/AbuUmar8246

ISIS is continuing its campaign to win friends and influence people by its ongoing campaign in "the world's only caliphate" by destroying Shiite symbols that offend their religious sensibilities.
===========

Matthew,

It would serve Israel right if that were to come to pass in addition to having ISIS as their next door neighbors. One day Israel will create one Frankenstein too many. They haven't learned anything from their Hamas experiment.

[Ryan]

Yes, I was watching Shep Smith on FOX trying to do everything he could short of coming out and saying that Putin was behind this incident. CNN wasn't any better.

If all this bad stuff happening all at once were a Vegas slot machine it would be dumping coins all over the ground.

[The beaver]

All

Ground invasion has started :
http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/IDF-intensifies-Gaza-attacks-with-artillery-fire-air-strikes-363289

[b]

After intense artillery preparation over several hours in north Gaza the IDF just now started some ground operation including with tanks. The alleged goal is to target tunnels that go under the border into Israel. It is a build up area so the IDF, unless it flattens all of it, is unlikely to achieve their aim.

[505thPIR]

The separatists have been the ones shooting down planes in this conflict. The have been on the business end of the Ukrainian Su-25's. Obviously, the 777 was at a much higher altitude and was not confused as Frogfoot. Still, from their perspective,with no airforce of their own, anything flying is in a free-fire zone.

[Charles I]

CBC rado news reporting 4 pm Thursday a ground invasion ordered by Bibi.

[steve]

Looks like you win your bet.

“The prime minister and the defense minister have ordered the IDF to begin a ground operation in order to damage the underground tunnel terrors constructed in Gaza leading into Israeli territory,” the statement from the prime minister’s office read.

http://mondoweiss.net/2014/07/israel-launches-invasion.html

[crone]

Another report on the Iron Dome

Iron Dome is just a PR weapon. The Israelis might as well talk about their secret death ray.

MIT professor Ted Postol explains:

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/528991/an-explanation-of-the-evidence-of-weaknesses-in-the-iron-dome-defense-system/

…During the November 2012 conflict a large number of photographs of Iron Dome interceptor contrails were observed in the sky. These contrails revealed that the Iron Dome interceptor rate was very low—perhaps as low as 5 percent or below…. I will show sample pieces of data indicating that Iron Dome performance was very low in November 2012, and I will show similar data for July 2014, which indicates that Iron Dome performance almost a year and a half later has probably not improved.

[jamzo]

fred kaplan writing at slate expresses a similar opinion of Israeli strategic thinkking

Israel’s Deadly Gambits

The Israeli government has lost the ability to think strategically.
By Fred Kaplan

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2014/07/israel_launches_ground_assault_on_gaza_the_israeli_government_no_longer.html

[Charles I]

more censorship:

Reporting live from a hilltop in Sderot, the Israeli city that has born the brunt of a decade of Palestinian rocket fire, CNN reporter Diana Magnay stationed a camera in a position to capture both air strikes and a crowd gathered in celebration.

“I think you can probably see there are lots of Israelis gathered around who are cheering when they see these kinds of Israeli strikes.”

Magnay then tweeted — and quickly deleted — a message indicating her report didn’t sit well with some onlookers.

“Israelis on hill above Sderot cheer as bombs land on #gaza; threaten to ‘destroy our car if I say a word wrong.’ Scum,’ “ Magnay wrote.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/07/18/more_than_20_palestinians_israeli_soldier_killed_as_troops_advance_into_gaza.html

[The beaver]

Ryan

You can still get the copy here ( if it is the same):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

[JCC]

Years ago, back in my Army days, I read BiBi's book on his brother and the raid on Entebbe, "Self Portrait of a Hero".

Based on the emotional content of that book, since then it seems to me that BiBi has been making rash and poorly thought out decisions, vengeance at the forefront of his thinking process. Only movies show institutions allowing someone with personal motives to be involved in serious decision making and action. In real life the cop is pulled off the case where someone in his immediate family has been greatly harmed. You would think Israel would know better, but it might help to explain why they now destroy everything in their path.