Middle East Diary - 16 July 2014

 

"Government troops and allied Shi'ite volunteer fighters retreated from Tikrit before sunset on Tuesday to a base four km (2.5 miles) south after coming under heavy mortar and sniper fire, a soldier who fought in the battle said.

Residents said there was no fighting on Wednesday morning in Tikrit, which lies 160 km (100 miles) north of Baghdad. It is a stronghold of ex-army officers and loyalists of executed former dictator Saddam Hussein's Baath Party who allied themselves with the Islamic State-led offensive last month.

Tuesday's military attack was launched from Awja, Saddam's birthplace some 8 km (5 miles) south of the city, but ran into heavy opposition in the southern part of the city.

Pictures published on Twitter by supporters of the Islamic State showed a fighter holding a black Islamist flag next to a black armored car it said had been abandoned by a military SWAT team, as well as vehicles painted in desert camouflage - one of them burnt out - which it said retreating troops left behind." Reuters

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We wrote here some time back that the Iraqi "Army" would have one major opportunity to conduct a counter-offensive to the north and that if that failed they were finished as a force and would not be able to establish the Iraq government's authority north and west of Baghdad.  They have now failed in that attempt and Iraq is effectively partitioned unless Iran, Turkey or some other regional power intervenes massively.  All the baloney in the world about "soft power" is not going to change the situation.  At the same time the unstable cooperation between; ISIS fanatics, Sunni tribals and nationalist soldiers from Saddam's army will soon start to break up.  IMO the soldiers and the tribesmen will eliminate ISIS in Iraq.  This may take some time but it will happen.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/16/us-iraq-security-idUSKBN0FL0U720140716

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" Israeli experts predicted overland raids to destroy command bunkers and tunnels that have allowed the outgunned Palestinians to withstand air and naval barrages on Gaza and keep rockets flying."  CBC

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Hamas has offered Israel a ten year truce (hudna).  This is a relgiously sanctioned temporary cease fire contingent on; release of prisoners whom the Israelis earlier released in an exchange and then re-arrested.  Hamas also wants the borders of Gaza opened and an end to the naval blockade.  The Israelis don't want peace with Hamas.  They want to destroy the group so that they can continue to dominate the non-peace process farce.  Therefore, there is no chance of the Israelis accepting such an offer and Hamas knows this.

Nevertheless, the Izzies are in the "hurt locker."  They are locked into their own bluster concerning the terrible things they are going to to do to Gaza if the Gazans do not abandon Hamas politically.  So far, it appears that the Gazans blame Israel, not Hamas for their predicament.  The pro-zionist US media are eagerly waiting for some sign that such a shift is happening but, alas, it does not seem to be so.

In the absence of that development, Israel's internal politics is driving it toward a decision to begin to conduct ground operations.  This will probably begin as more raids against Hamas and Islamic Jihad sites.  These will, of course, be defended and there will be IDF casualties.  Failures like the naval commando raid this week will lead to demands for larger operations.

At the same time it is now reported in the Israeli press that ISIS is recruiting in Gaza.  pl 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-poised-to-invade-parts-of-gaza-as-rocket-salvos-resume-1.2708280

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-israel-gaza-conflict-20140716-story.html

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/isis-makes-headway-into-gaza-and-sinai/2014/06/29/

 

 

 

 

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Hamas too stands to win from a cease-fire with Israel

Comments

[The beaver]

Oh Oh trouble in paradise (at the Knesset)?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/netanyahu-criticised-by-cabinet-members-over-gaza-crisis-israel

"The divisions within the Israeli cabinet have been mocked by Hamas, with spokesman Fauzi Barhoum calling the sacking of Danon a "victory for the resistance".

Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's hawkish foreign minister, split his Yisrael Beiteinu party from Likud – dismantling a crucial alliance for Netanyahu – having accused the prime minister of hesitation over Gaza.

Lieberman criticised the government for accepting the Egyptian-brokered ceasefire and called for an IDF ground assault and occupation of the Gaza Strip, arguing that a ceasefire would allow Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups to replenish their stock of weapons."

[Matthew]

More evidence that Muslims don't care about Palestinians (sarcasm): http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/arsenal-star-mesut-ozil-donates-3m-brazil-world-cup-winnings-gaza-1456910

[johnf]

Colonel, I realize that Syrian and Iraqi Ba'athists long since went their separate ways but, if the Iraqi Ba'athists do turn against ISIS, they would have a common enemy.

Or, as Sunnis, would the Iraqi Ba'athists simply view Assad as an ally of Shi'ite Iran and the Shia's in Baghdad? If they do defeat ISIS in Iraq, ISIS would still be able to constantly threaten their rear from their bases n Syria.

[confusedponderer]

"At the same time it is now reported in the Israeli press that ISIS is recruiting in Gaza."

If it is true, given their attitude, the Izzies probably regard that as good news.

After all, ISIS hates rivals and heretics (Shia, Alavites) first, and only then the farther enemies - the Christians and Jews (unless the opportunity arises and they're really close at hand, in which case they would likely kill them immediately anyway, but I digress).

They may well see that as an opportunity to split the religiously motivated Palestinians in two - pro ISIS and pro Hamas. Obviously, from an internationalist Jihadi persepective, Hamas is wrong in being a local group with a local grievance. But in principle they are rivals on the 'sunni religious spectrum'.

Iirc trying to split the Plaetinians away from Fatah led to the growth of Hamas - and Israels contemporary problem with them.

I am at a loss how anybody could possibly think it would work better the next time with a group as virulent and violent as ISIS, but there you go:

I expect the Israelis to be fully capable of trying something as stupid as that, and to feel teribly smart and Machiavellian about it.

What will come out of it they will look and see. Having kicked the can down the road that will be for future administrations and another generation of Israelis and Israeli soldiers to worry about, but as for now, they REALLY screwed Hamas, and they will merrily gloat about that.

[Ralph H.]

The IDF continues to amaze me with its inability to come to grips with what could (loosely) be called the enemy's "center of gravity." In Gaza, as in southern Lebanon some years ago, the hostile enemy embedded in a civilian population is able to continue military operations (i.e., launching rockets into Israel) thanks to an extensive underground tunnel network. Seems to me that the IDF, to achieve a military decision, needs to flood Gaza with infantry & do a methodical "clear and hold" of the urbanized infrastructure -- building to building, room to room -- while energetically employing ground-penetrating radar and other technical means to locate and destroy the tunnel network from Egypt that sustains Hamas. This ought to be possible. Why the IDF didn't do this in Lebanon and whether they will attempt it here are open questions.

[oofda]

If the IDF goes into Gaza in a major operation, think Grozny New Year's Eve, 1994.

[turcopolier]

Ralph H

It is not n "open question" for me. The IDF fears Jewish casualties. pl

[Fred]

Ralph,

"... the hostile enemy embedded in a civilian population..."

The “enemy” are Palestinians and not some foreign troops occupying the blockaged Gaza strip. Seems to me Israel should return to the '67 borders, but then they would have to evacuate all those illegal settlements and end that illegal naval blockade. However I'm sure that if the IDF recruits enough foreigners (like Jewish Americans) to fill their ranks they could take the casualties they would suffer doing what you suggest. What the world will think of all the dead and injured civilians is another matter entirely.

[samuelburke]

At some point the MSM, free American press, will feel a sense of accountability to report the Israeli Army invasion of a city in the least biased manner possible.

http://mondoweiss.net/2014/07/israeli-palestinian-children.html

Let us see how mainstream this story is allowed to travel and whether the media will try to hold morally accountable the perpetrators of this crime.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/israeli-strike-kills-boys-playing-gaza-beach/story?id=24583817

[Jonathan]

Both Conservative and Labor MP denouncing Israel's actions in strong terms during a session in Parliament questioning the Foreign Minister.

If it is possible to be more depressed with our own politicians, this video will do the trick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJWNE83j__k&sns=em

[The beaver]

@ samuelburke

more details here;

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/witness-gaza-shelling-first-hand-account

Hope Bibi, one day, leaves this world like Sharon.

[turcopolier]

Jonathan

I presume that you are in the UK? One of the more detestable IO ploys ongoing is the attempt on the part of the Zionists to transfer responsibility for Gazan deaths to Hamas and IJ. The basis of this argument is the notion that if the resisters were not firing into Israel then the Izzies would not be forced to kill and wound civilians. I suppose the US could have made this claim in WW2 with regard to Japan and Germany, i.e., if they had surrendered we would not have been forced to bomb their cities, pl

[Jonathan]

I am in NYC - born and raised - a secular physician whose grandparents were european jews who came to the US in 1890s and who like my parents were, as far as I know, assimilationists not Zionists).

I completely agree with your point on the despicable argument that Hamas is responsible for the deaths in Gaza.

Thank you (again) for your blog which I read daily and recommend widely.

[Matthew]

Col: On the positive side, our state department spokeswoman--and lead hashtag tweeter--actually was asked if the Palestinians had a right to defend themselves. She dodged. Hopefully, my President will be asked that question too.

And never forget the ever-shrinking Mahmoud Abbas. See http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/07/14/cant_kill_hamas_make_it_stronger_protective_edge_israel_gaza

How's the "sacred duty" to ensure Israel's security working for him?

[The beaver]

Jonathan

They really gave it to Hague before it was "Bye Bye' for the Foreign Secretary !

[The beaver]

Now they are declaring a humanitarian truce after they gunned down innocent children who were not used as human shields.

It was just killing children for their own satisfaction of killing .

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28334219

[Abu Sinan]

The Israelis tend not to think long term when it comes to their actions. Lets not forget that Israel played a major role in the foundations of Hamas, seeing them as a counterweight to the secular/leftist PLO.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Right and and I suppose some would argue as well that the Shoah was the fault of the European Jews for clinging to their customs and traditions instead of discarding them and becoming Christians...

I think it goes all the way back to Plato: The Rulers must learn how to govern and the slaves must learn to like their chains.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to confusedponderer 16 July 2014 at 11:14 AM

""At the same time it is now reported in the Israeli press that ISIS is recruiting in Gaza."

If it is true, given their attitude, the Izzies probably regard that as good news."

That is a very big "if" is it not? The timing of the allegations are way too convenient, I for one want to know what's name of the Israeli buffoon who let the recruiters in? (I'm taking that one with a hefty dose of salt. I have spare a kilo of salt to hand and don't mind sharing).

That being said if it is true and I repeat I think it's a really big "if" then I have to agree with your conclusion that they'll gloat about their temporary "victory".

Dubhaltach

[Cee]

I just saw a photo in an article on globalresearch.ca of Bibi Netanyahu shaking hands with a wounded jihadi fighter that they claim to hate in Syria. If ISIS is recruting in Gaza, they are conducting a false operation on behalf of (giggling at your term) the Izzzies.

[turcopolier]

Cee

The "Izzies?" A term of endearment in the IC, something like "dinks."

[Valissa]

Agreed on Plato, Babak. Not only was Plato a totalitarian, he was an idealistic/noble arrogant totalitarian. Never understood why he was considered such a great thinker, other than people are taught that he was.

[fanto]

Samuelburke,
...not before being tried in The Hague

[Matthew]

Fred: Surprisingly, this article got through the Hasbara Filter. See http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/why_i_object_to_israel_s_military_campaign_in_gaza_israel_turned_the_occupied.html

But the comments section contains a nice compendium of GOI talking points.

Curiously, unlike 2008, the social media coverage is more sophisticated. I wonder if Hamas has gotten more sophisticated, or maybe lots of people just can't repeat Israel's talking points with a straight face anymore. (And by people, I'm excluding the WH, State Department, and Congress. They are always ready to defend the indefensible.)

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Yes, Iraq is partitioned. Northern Iraq is a free fire zone. Militancy and contagion will spread from there throughout the region. The Sunni Shiite Jihad is launched. You’d think that the Alawites, Kurds, Turkman, Christians, Jews and Shiites, for survival, would ally. But, tribal hatreds and Arms Dealers make it impossible.

Israel may occupy the West Bank and bombard Gaza but unless the tribes can be partitioned with secure borders, genocide is inevitable. Israel will invade Gaza. It will be Lebanon 2006, all over again, unless Israel is willing to seize each block and bulldoze everything flat then go to the next one. It has been done before. In the battle for Saipan in 1944 3,435 Americans, 24,000 Japanese soldiers, and 22,000 civilians (mostly suicides) died. Today it is a commonwealth in the United States.

If genocide and a Sunni Holy War are unacceptable then the neo-cons who started them have to be thrown out. The wars with Iran and Syria have to be ended. States with secure borders must be established with governments that work for their citizens including a Jewish state.

According to Saker, the Ukraine Army spearhead around Donetsk along the Russian border has been cut and Ukrainian troops are now trapped.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/

The decision by the Obama Administration to support the Putsch in Kiev and start a civil war on Russia’s border is just as great of a screw up as the 2003 Iraq Invasion except Russia does have the nuclear capability to destroy the USA.