Dr. Strangelove is back.

 

"There were earlier Russian reports that the rebels had captured Ukrainian surface-to-air defense but no details. The SA-11 or SA-17 are, however, logical systems for rebels to have used earlier in shooting down a Ukrainian AN-26 military transport at a reported altitude of 26,000 feet.

A passenger aircraft would have no warning of such an attack, and its black box would not record any data on the intercept. It is extremely unlikely to pilots ever saw the incoming missile or could accurately characterize it if they had only seconds in which to speak in ways the black box could record."  CSIS

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The Yellow Media are creating a Doctor Strangelove situation.  They do not seem to grasp the idea that the war between Russia and the USA toward which they are groping will destroy both countries altogether.  Once more, a war between the USA and Russia WILL DESTROY BOTH COUNTRIES and much of the rest of the world.

As Cordesman notes there are many unanswered questions concerning the fate of Malaysia Flight 17.  The evidence that has been revealed is sketchy.  There is still the possibility of an electro/mechanical failure of some sort.  Nevertheless, people who should know better than to do this are participating in jacking up public hysteria that pushes the country toward war with Russia. I guess the money must be good. 

Perhaps the neocon/R2P crowd in power do not understand what nuclear war would mean.  pl  

http://csis.org/publication/downing-malaysian-airliner-avoid-rushing-judgment?utm_source=The+Downing+of+the+Malaysian+Airliner%3A+Avoid+Rushing+to+Judgment&utm_campaign=Internal+Tensions+in+Iran&utm_medium=email

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2008/09/the-siop-and-th.html 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism

Comments

[Augustin L]

History now seems to be repeating the only thing missing is the Lusitania and the Austro-hungarian investigators. This week's main event where more than half the world's population met in Brazil to erect an independent financial architecture decoupling from the dollar was probably the casus belli. From Washington and London these developments are akin to a new Berlin-Baghdad bahn times X. This summer has exposed the sheer incompetence of the anglo-saxon clans in charge of the current global empire. They have failed with regards to the arc of instability between europe and asia, they have failed to keep eurasia from forming an integrated and independent economic unit of it's own and failed to keep it expanding to Africa. They are now effectively marginalized from the new growing world configuration. I doubt they will sit back and watch the rise of a ''multi-polar'' world while their empire collapses.

[gemini33]

I appreciate hearing your point of view, and your calling out of this reckless, mad march toward war.

Do they think it won't affect them?

[Ex 11B]

Bet they even have a swinging fallout shelter really groovy mood lighting.
Seriously, we are ruled by children with nukes.

[Fred]

Not being satisfied with almost starting a nuclear war over the 'red line' use of chemical agents in Syria (very probably the the people opposing Assad) the administration, its R2P wing or even the far right of the "Ukrainian" government has possibly brought us to the brink again. For what? What national interest does the US have in Ukraine when Mexico is a failed state and multiple countries South of our border are failing so badly we have a child immigration 'crisis'?

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

You are correct there is a purposeful campaign to move Ukraine into NATO that includes propaganda, economic sanctions and warfare.

Yesterday, CBS News kept repeating the phrase the legitimate government of Ukraine. There was no mention of the putsch in Kiev that overthrew the elected government or the ethnic and religious conflicts were exploited to start a civil war on Russia’s borders. Of course, not one reporter mentioned that if the West had been willing to negotiate an end to the Ukraine civil war, no planes would have been shot down at all.

I can only conclude that the campaign to destabilize Russia is ongoing and getting more desperate and could lead to a war with NATO. I lived through the Cold War, it is simply astonishing the enormous risks the United States is taking which could easily escalate to a nuclear exchange. This just for a few old plutocrats so they can sell weapons and have one last chance of gaining control of Gazprom.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

This is the second time that a civilian airliner has been shot down by missile originating from the Ukrainian territory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

We must set aside that Ukraine is a state and consider it a non-man's land between Russia and EU.

[Ryan]

Well, colonel, what would you expect from the masters of the universe? After all, they do create their own reality.

Too bad it probably has more in common with an LSD trip than what normal people deal with.

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Karl_Rove

The BS has really gotten deep since this plane went down. I finally turned off the tv in disgust with all the ignorance and lying that is going on. The MSM is doing a fine job staying on message that Putin did it and should be held accountable (!), the truth, whatever it might be, damned.

[Crone]

Wise words Col., very wise words.

[alba etie]

All
We must remember we are coming up to a national election - this yellow journalism must be called out for what it is -propaganda. This must become a national conversation . We must stop this madness...

[Kunuri]

Somebody shot down that airplane.

Terrorism, or mechanical mulfunction probabilities are small enough to ignore, it wouldnt be otherwise if the location was somewherelse.

There are three possible culprits, states of Ukraine and Russia, unnofficial entity of Ukraninan rebels who wish to ceceed from Ukraine and join Russia.

It does not make sense for all three of these entities knowingly shoot down a civilian airliner that belongs to another far away country with no hostile intent.

So, the shoot down was unintended.

Someone had access to a deadly anti aircraft system called BUK.

It had to be in the hands of group of people WHO can operate it effectively.

In my opinion all three entities i cited above are capable of it.

So if the shoot down was not intentional or entity sponsored,it had to be done by someone not in the regular chain of command of an entity.

In my opinion, as far as control of policy and command chain goes, starting from the tigthest to loosest, it is Russia, Ukraine and separatist rebels.

Starting from history of shooting down airplanes from sky in recent times, the ranking goes, Ukie rebels, Ukraine, Russia.

Starting from less tangible element of trigger happiness and paranoia, Ukie rebels, ukranians, Russians.

Starting from element of identifying a target correctly before shooting, Ukie rebels, Ukranians Russians.

Getting heady from being in possession of big toys with a lot of bang, and feeling besieged and unappreciated, in order of rank, Ukie rebels, Ukranians and Russians.

When i add it all up, i come up with a bunch of yahoos with a big gun getting trigger happy and going oh-oh, and embarrasing the elder uncle WHO gave them the big shotgun just for bird hunting, but now that the sheriff is gonna come around asking questions, who is going to play dumbo and call it all a big misunderstanding? Before the feds come around and sticking their noses where it does not belong.

[rkka]

Your rankings almost make sense, though I would call the Ukrainian military and the rebels much closer in their ability to correctly identify a civilian aircraft. For 25 years, the Ukrainian armed forces have been funded at a level that barely sufficed to keep them poorly paid, with precious little for operations, maintenance, training, and acquisition.

Further, the Ukrainian integrated air defense system has shown fairly recently that it has trouble correctly identifying civilian aircraft. From October 2001:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/1359353/Ukraine-admits-it-shot-down-Russian-airliner.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

[Allen Thomson]

"It had to be in the hands of group of people WHO can operate it effectively."

I tend to agree with your overall analysis, though these are early days and surprises (probably unpleasant ones) may be in store.

However, with respect to Buk, a full battery including an acquisition radar should have been able to discriminate a 777 at cruising altitude from an An-26. However, the TELAR has an integral engagement radar that can operate autonomously as a limited-capability search radar, independent of the normal acquisition radar. I suspect that might have been what happened.

[John Minnerath]

Does anyone know if any warnings or advisories had been issued to commercial carriers about flights over the Ukraine?

[Babak Makkinejad]

An Iranian C-130 carrying the families of Iranian diplomats back to Iran from Moscow was shot down by Armenia in 1994.

It was an accident in my opinion since Armenia has been too dependent on Iran during the war with Azerbaijan to deliberately seek to injure her relationship with Iran.

I suppose NATO countries will now proceed to further demonize Russia and mete out the same treatment as Iran has received from them.

And I think Russia will endure and come out stronger.

And then what?

NATO leaders have no answers.

[Fred]

Kunuri,

You need to remember who has an incentive to create an incident to obtain American intervention. The only ones who desire that and thus might intentionally shoot down a civilian aircraft are the people loosing the war- the Ukrainians.

[Booby]

To All:

I fear that the coven & true believers who are stoking the fire have no clue of the consequences should their cauldron boil over.

I am troubled this morning by the headline, "US Building Case Tying Pro-Russian Separatist to Plane Crash in Ukraine" Shadows of WMD in Iraq & Syrian Sarin. Ready, fire, aim. We have the answer that we want; now, let's find the evidence to support our answer.

Early news reports included a reporter coming out of the Pentagon saying that it appeared that the Separatist shot the plane down because the Ukrainians had taped evidence. This line was later echoed by a retired senior CIA talking head.

Even a rookie county prosecutor would not present a case where the evidence against Suspect A was the testimony of Suspect B. We have the means to collect independent evidence, hopefully our analysts are being allowed to build an independent case.

I am also concerned about the thread of regime change in Russia that is subtly beginning to come from the talking heads.

"...fire burn, and cauldron bubble."

[Allen Thomson]

Useful Janes factsheet on Buk:

http://press.ihs.com/press-release/aerospace-defense-terrorism/ihs-janes-analysis-capabilities-ukraines-missile-systems

[The Twisted Genius]

John Minnerath,

I found a discussion of FAA NOTAMs issued for the area. A total restriction was issued for Crimean airspace back in April to remain in effect for year. Only on July 14 did they issue a partial restriction below 33,000 feet for eastern Ukraine. A total restriction was issued right after the Malaysian flight went down. Don't we refer to that as closing the barn door after the cows are gone?

The total closure of Crimean airspace seems more a political move than a safety concern. Just another effort to tweak Putin's nose. If the FAA was concerned for the flying public's safety, I would think the total restriction would have been over the actual conflict zone where military aircraft were being knocked out of the sky. The FAA is just another federal agency I lost faith in.

http://blog.wandr.me/2014/07/notam-malaysia-airlines-mh17/

[Charles Dekle]

All,
The Melissa Harris Perry show just blamed Russia directly for the shoot down without offering a shred of evidence. Scary times indeed!

James Miklaszewski placed the blame squarely on Russian troops embedded with the separatists. A professor from Vally Forge Military (http://www.vfmac.edu/meet-the-faculty-catagnus-earl/) stated the same, again with no proof. There were two counter voices on the panel but MHP interspersed sound bights from Samantha Power to prove them wrong. I started yelling at the TV. Are these people really that stupid/crazy?

Regards,

[The Twisted Genius]

I have yet to hear any convincing evidence for exactly how MH17 was lost and who is responsible, accidentally or deliberately. Yesterday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Analoly Antonov set out a list of ten questions for the Ukrainian authorities. He didn't make accusations or jump to conclusions. He just asks reasonable questions. They're damned good questions, too.

http://rt.com/news/173976-mh17-crash-questions-ukraine/

I have serious doubts about the Ukrainian produced video of conversations of the rebels discussing the shoot down. The first version of that video seems to have been published the day before the loss of MH17. Yet it is cited as gospel truth by our press and politicians. The bellicosity on U.S. television is astounding... and I don't watch cable news. I can imagine what they're putting out. I'm waiting for someone with the stones to point out our dangerous idiocy by broadcasting this clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyeKYQdYISg

[Ryan]

Fox News is even going so far as to run film footage of a SA-11 in the back of a truck calling it the "murder weapon". The media is making a big deal about who had the experience to operate the SA-11. Apparently, they are unfamiliar with that creature known as "prior service".

Yep, the media is creating quite an image. I can see Putin wearing those sunglasses with a malevolent on his face while he engages this ADA system and fires it.

I bet he's bare shirted, too.

[Seamus Padraig]

The guns of August...

[nick b]

JM,

http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/us_restrictions/media/2014_0214_04-29_final_fdc_notam4-7667_ukraine_sfar.pdf

[Anna-Marina]

A side story on the possible shift in a balance of power with the introduction of New BRICS Bank:

http://www.therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12123

A theme of discussion on Russian social media: The US, as an empire in agony due to loosing the unipolar advantage, is capable of anything

[Anna-Marina]

Whoever shot the plane was a Ukrainian citizen.