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13 June 2014

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dilbert dogbert

Sure looks like one hell of an exposed flank.

turcopolier

dilbert dogbed

Yes. The western axis of advance into the capital region seems to be wide open. As I said, look for a concentric attack on what is left of the Iraqi Army north and west of Baghdad. This is obvious. ISIS is applying their version of sharia in Mosul. they have forbidden any other form of Islam to include the sufi way. IMO their temporary alliance with the Naqshbandi Army will disintegrate if the situation can be stabilized The only hope for that would seem to be Iranian intervention. pl

turcopolier

All http://www.itv.com/news/2014-06-11/how-did-hundreds-of-islamist-militants-beat-thousands-of-us-trained-iraqi-army-soldiers-in-mosul/

oofda

Colonel,
The Iranians have started intervention. Reportedly at least two Quds Forces battalions are now in Iraq- supporting Maliki and protecting Shia holy sites- which the ISIS have publicly targeted.

As reported:
Two battalions of the Quds Forces, the elite overseas branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps that have long operated in Iraq, have come to the aid of the besieged, Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, they said.

Combined Iraqi-Iranian forces had retaken control across 85% of Tikrit, the birthplace of former dictator Saddam Hussein, according to Iraqi and Iranian security sources

r Whitman

In the end,who controls the oilfields and export terminals is the most important thing.

turcopolier

r Whitman

No. Whoever controls the oilfields an terminals will sell this fungible commodity at market prices whether those market prices are the result of security market operations or not. There is a petroleum supply surplus and nobody is going to "sit on" their oil. The real question here is the possible establishment of a jihadi state. pl

Bob Randolph

Colonel,

Not that rationality is ever a consistent trait in US foreign policy, but wouldn't it now be the prudent and rational course to come to terms with Assad, stop funding and supporting the rebels and, instead, support the Syrian government's efforts to clean out the ISIS safe havens in eastern Syria?

turcopolier

Bob R
Yes, certainly. pl

David Habakkuk

Bob Randolph,

That would mean that the people concerned would have to admit that they have been wrong. Past experience does not suggest that this is something they are likely to find easy -- but then panic might concentrate their minds.

The Twisted Genius

Bob Randolf,

In addition to coming to terms with Assad, We should do the same with Iran. Tell the Iranians that they are free to do what they think is prudent and necessary without any interference from us. Let the sanctions regime just quietly weaken out of benign neglect so Iran can more effectively fight the threat to their west. Israel and her fifth column in the U.S. will, of course, scream bloody murder. Our message to them should be STFU.

Charles Dekle

TTG,
I think that is a great idea. However, there are a couple of senators who might have strokes if the President acted that rationally. :-)
Regards,

Fred

TTG,

" Israel and her fifth column in the U.S...."

We should counter that by posting actual evidence of the IDF actions in Gaza and the West Bank. I'm sure the NSA etc has plenty of imagery available.

bth

Col. would a jihadi state that stretched from Mosul into eastern Syria and down through Anbar be economically viable?

bth

Col. what do you think Turkey will do?

Kunuri

Albayim, Kerkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline has been pumping oil to ships in Iskenderun port and nobody is buying it because of Iraqi government's objections due to lack of a fair revenue sharing agreement between the two entities.

But now that Iraqi Government is otherwise busy, and Kerkuk is non de facto capital of Kurdistan, do you think all that oil sitting in ships may get the green light to be unloaded?

I say this, because I just don't see Barzani ever letting the Iraqi Army back into greater Kerkuk to provide security and make sure it is still the part of a fictional Iraqi state.

turcopolier

bth

Nothing except except for their hostages. IMO the Turkish government has harbored the non-ISIS component of the rebel coalition. pl

turcopolier

bth

There is oil in the area but funding from the Gulf would be the main support. pl

confusedponderer

Come on, McCain or Hillary having a stroke wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

Since they won't retire over mortification over their own bumbling, health problems would do as a surrogate.

Babak Makkinejad

It will not happen; however sensible it might be.

That time is past - or yet to come.

Babak Makkinejad

There is no evidence of Iranian intervention.

Ulenspiegel

Maybe some stupid questions:

Does the ISIL operates in Iraq not only with the money but also with the blessing of the KSA?

Does the KSA control the ISIL?

How does the ISIL perceive the rulers in the KSA?

alba etie

Twisted Genius
Yes Shut the F--ck Up full stop . Meanwhile neocon trolls like Kenneth Pollack keep popping up in the MSM blathering about going back to Baghdad.

alba etie

Charles Dekle
Yes the first senators to have perhaps have these 'strokes ' would be Sen. "Damn kids get off my lawn " McCain .And McCain's well known 'office wife ' Senator Lindsay Graham .

Thomas

Ulenspiegel,

ISIS is the al Qadea franchise that was usurped by former Sunni Iraqi Army men to take over their funding, economic assets and foot soldiers. Al Nusra are Syrian members who broke away from this new Iraqi leadership by first asking to go fight Assad and then not swearing allegiance to al Baghdadi.

The only time the Syrian Rebels were advancing was when the ISIS Iraqis were planning and leading operations. Once the inter factional feuding began, the Syrian Army regained the initiative.

The link below implies that Bandar was funding them as part of the Anti-Assad forces. Whether Bandar knew that these new guys were former Republican Guards, and who is playing whom is still open questions. Though I would say the professional soldiers are playing all sides since the ISIS Virtue and Vice squads tend to be foreigners which makes them expendable when Iraqi goals are achieved and someone is needed to pay the price for excesses.


http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/new-isis-leaks-reveal-particulars-of-al-qaida-strategy/

turcopolier

Thomas

My problem with this is that the RG was quite secular. pl

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