- Bobby Gosh, the Christian Palestinian editor of Time magazine, said today on "Morning Mika," that the greatest untruth currently circulating is the canard concerning whether or not Obama really wanted to maintain a residual US military presence in Iraq. He said, to Lightning Joe's consternation, that the the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that Obama wanted a residual of something like 10,000 for; command and staff advisory duties as well as supply management, CT ops, intelligence analysis and collection, etc. Gosh insisted that it was Maliki and company who altogether rejected that plan through the mechanism of having the Iraqi parliament reject legal extraterritoriality for the remaining US troops. I agree with Gosh. Obama did not do that. Maliki did it.
- It seems clear that the Obama Administration is attempting to "manage" the narrative on Iraq by feeding its point of view to selected news people. The soccer fan (Joe) who sits to her left on "Morning Mika," is just sooo self assured when he talks about the situation in Iraq It seems likely that he is getting lot of attention from PAO people in the government. And then, there is Chuck Todd. He has been saying for days that "people in Washington," are telling him that Iraq will be "Yemenized" as a matter of policy. Which "people in Washington?"
- Yesterday (22 June) ISIS fighters shot up a police bus in the area of Hillah (SOUTH of Baghdad). the police were transferring prisoners to a prison just north of Baghdad. 71 people were killed. This means that there is an ISIS presence SOUTH of Baghdad. The roads to Kuwait run through this area. This could become quite important in terms of the ongoing NEO.
- Are there still two US Army combat brigades in Kuwait? the British "Mail on Line," indicates that there are 10,000 US military in Kuwait. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655485/US-no-plans-send-35-000-Middle-East-based-troops-Iraq-al-Qaeda-overruns-two-cities-forces-500-000-flee-lives.html But are these structured in maneuver brigades that could be useful in an overland NEO? The article also confirms the presence of USAF F-16s in Kuwait.
- John Kerry is in Iraq to persuade Maliki to become a "cumbaya" kind of fellow. Good luck to him!
- The seizure of Rutba near the Jordan border is a real threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The IPC hard surface road runs straight from there to Mafraq and then Zarqa'in northern Jordan. The TAPLINE road that parallels the Saudi border can also be reached overland from Rutba or on the Jordanian road that runs south by Azraq.. Having driven around cross country in that area myself I can tell you that there are enough desert tracks to make that work as well. We should consider a substantial troop commitment in eastern Jordan.
pl
I'm in Canada, but I'm ex-USMC (Viet Vet) and I can appreciate why USG would not take the deal.
But given US's rep for war crimes I can also see why Iraq or any country would not want US soldiers w/ immunity for civilian crimes in their country. I think a better way to phrase the hypothetical is: Would Floridians want 100,000 Iraqi soldiers stationed in Florida who are immune from Florida and US laws? Don't think so. Florida, like Iraq, would not take such a deal.
Do you know who has jurisdiction over US soldiers who violate civilian laws off base in, say, UK or Greece? I presume that is governed by treaty or some standing principle of int'l law. Does Turkey grant immunity to US servicemen who rape Turkish women or kill Turkish kids? I'm sure all this was explained in classes on UCMJ in boot camp, but I probably forgot it before graduation.
Posted by: Denis | 23 June 2014 at 09:47 PM
That's true in the aggregate, Margaret. It includes all the military supplies and equipment seized.
The figure I've seen the most is $450 million. It is possible this figure is being drawn from a single source. I haven't looked at that. Anyway, like the military stuff, no one is sure how much they ran off with. The only people who have stolen more are the Wall Street and City of London banksters.
Posted by: Ryan | 23 June 2014 at 10:06 PM
cville,
From my reading, yes, there are Chechens with the ISIL. There are quite a few foreigners serving with them similar to those with al-Nusra.
I think it does fit a pattern as you observed.
Posted by: Ryan | 23 June 2014 at 10:45 PM
If these Chechens are veterans of the combat in Chechnya and survived through all of it, they must have under their belt, what, some twenty years of combat experience, in an environment with high attrition.
They may have fought both Russians, Americans, Hezbollah and the Syrian army and must have drawn valuable tactical lessons.
Even with half that experience, they would, with proper training, probably be very capable NCOs, and it is likely that they did get such training. It is easy to see how such people would be a valuable addition to ISIS.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 24 June 2014 at 07:15 AM
Booong!
Breaking news!
Fox News has just learned that former members of Saddam's Ba'ath Party are working with ISIS.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/23/isis-joins-forces-with-saddam-loyalists-in-bid-to-take-baghdad/
Hurrah for Fox News! Hurrah for our media for being the sentinels of vigilance and truth!
Posted by: Ryan | 24 June 2014 at 07:28 AM
Quite sharp a bunch down there at FOX.
This whole mess only proves that de-baathification was a harebrained scheme, and the idiots who cooked it up ought to have ben publicly disgraced long ago, be it only as a warning to other miscreants. This was just as stupid as them dissolving the Iraqi army.
But in the end, that's what the US and the Shiites get for marginalising and pushing out a former elite, irrespective of individual culpability.
People lost their livelihoods because, what, they were former deputy nothing in the Baath party? In a country where party membership was a necesity for career advancement and didn't necessarily imply any ideological attachment?
And when they were resentful over that, idiots like Rumsfeld and Bremer sand Wolfowitz called them 'Deadenders'. Because these people - in the New Iraq - couldn't possibly have a legitimate grievance.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 24 June 2014 at 09:51 AM
Hah!
Posted by: Tyler | 24 June 2014 at 10:40 AM
Ryan, I'm unable to see that link.
Posted by: Tyler | 24 June 2014 at 10:41 AM
It would be a tempting offer, if only because I'm doubling my pay for 3 - 6 months. Going to have to wait to see how it shakes out - it certainly beats theAfghanistan detail hands down.
Posted by: Tyler | 24 June 2014 at 10:42 AM
Here we go.... The Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby says that "No truth to rumors in media today that US drones struck ISIL targets in Iraq".
https://twitter.com/PentagonPresSec/status/481449086743494656
OK, the usual soft spots:
"US drones". Maybe Saudi drones? Israeli drones? Maybe not drones at all but airplanes. US airplanes? Syrian airplanes? Jordanian airplanes?
"ISIL targets". Sunni targets? Ba'ath targets? Syrian targets? "Some other name" targets?
"near" the "Syrian border". The Jordanian border? If you are Bill Clinton, and the strikes were inside Iraq, you would say they were near the Iraqi border, not the Syrian border.
Back on 13 June, Adm. Kirby had the thankless task of talking about this whole mess when it first blew up in the public in a press conference broadcast on C-Span.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?319966-2/defense-department-briefing
Posted by: robt willmann | 24 June 2014 at 11:43 AM
Col
By the way, Bobby is Indian.
Posted by: omonaija12 | 24 June 2014 at 11:59 AM
"... doubling my pay for 3 - 6 months."
Finally, some coin you can bank on.
Posted by: Fred | 24 June 2014 at 12:28 PM
Tyler,
Here it is, al Douri's facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Izzat-Ibrahim-Al-Douri/193701978136
The Iraqi Sunnis awaiting their new King.
Posted by: Thomas | 24 June 2014 at 03:17 PM
"We should consider a substantial troop commitment in eastern Jordan."
Better yet, colonel, let the Israelis deal with it. Seeing how they are next door and are such a staunch ally in the GWOT as we are constantly told they should be up to the task.
Posted by: Ryan | 25 June 2014 at 08:01 AM
Ryan
"let the Israelis deal with it" No! The treaty with Israel is not well accepted in Jordan and the presence of Israeli troops on Jordanian soil in a situation short of actual war would severely destabilize the monarchy. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 25 June 2014 at 08:19 AM
I'm kidding, sir.
However, I am serious with this. It shows just how useless Israel is as an ally. What Michael Scheuer said dumping Israel is spot on, in my opinion. Israel is a strategic liability.
Uh, oh, more bad news sir. You wrote a couple days ago about a possible move towards the autobahn between Baghdad and Basra by the Ba'athist/ISIS forces from the west. It appears it has started.
http://www.bnd.com/2014/06/24/3272636/islamist-fighters-reportedly-attempting.html
I wonder if they will use some of the meat shield to pin down forces at Samara while trying to take Baquba or work their way around it to set up a double envelopment with the objective to blockade the city? This should create not only supply and reinforcement difficulties for Maliki, but a major refugee problem as well if that autobahn is either cut or interdicted.
Posted by: Ryan | 25 June 2014 at 08:35 AM
Two items of interest. The first one is from a Kurdish source. The story claims that Maliki has lost seven divisions. The equipment losses are ten billion dollars. If this is true Maliki has lost half his army. On paper the Iraqi army stood at 14 divisions. This might be true. The Iraqi Army has a number of "ghost soldiers" on the payroll.
http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/26062014
ISIS forces continue to advance on Haditha. According to this story they have reached a town next door to Haditha.
"Alarmed that the insurgents would reach the dam, army officers told employees to stay inside and to be prepared to open the dam’s floodgates if ordered to do so, one employee said."
This wouldn't be the first time this has happened.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middle-east/2014/06/25/sunni-militants-advance-toward-large-iraqi-dam/Cr48PJc8u9SattcXaURsAN/story.html
North of Baghadad, the ISIS is trying to capture the airfield at Balad. ISIS is hitting it with mortar fire.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/us-iraq-security-idUSKBN0F00RO20140625
There are a few light aircraft and helicopters on the airfield. On CNN there was a discussion on what to do about this. Hmm, why not fly them out? Or have the pilots deserted?
Meanwhile, the Brahmin of Bombast, John Kerry, continues his clown tour.
Situation: FUBAR.
Posted by: Ryan | 26 June 2014 at 09:36 AM