Iraq diary - 23 June 2014

 

-  Bobby Gosh, the Christian Palestinian editor of Time magazine, said today on "Morning Mika," that the greatest untruth currently circulating is the canard concerning whether or not Obama really wanted to maintain a residual US military presence in Iraq.  He said, to Lightning Joe's consternation, that the the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that Obama wanted a residual of something like 10,000 for; command and staff advisory duties as well as supply management, CT ops, intelligence analysis and collection, etc.  Gosh insisted that it was Maliki and company who altogether rejected that plan through the mechanism of having the Iraqi parliament reject legal extraterritoriality for the remaining US troops.  I agree with Gosh.  Obama did not do that.  Maliki did it.

- It seems clear that the Obama Administration is attempting to "manage" the narrative on Iraq by feeding its point of view to selected news people.  The soccer fan (Joe) who sits to her left on "Morning Mika," is just sooo self assured when he talks about the situation in Iraq It seems likely that he is getting  lot of attention from PAO people in the government.  And then, there is Chuck Todd.  He has been saying for days that "people in Washington," are telling him that Iraq will be "Yemenized" as a matter of policy.  Which "people in Washington?"

- Yesterday (22 June) ISIS fighters shot up  a police bus in the area of Hillah (SOUTH of Baghdad).  the police were transferring prisoners to a prison just north of Baghdad.  71 people were killed. This means that there is an ISIS presence SOUTH of Baghdad.  The roads to Kuwait run through this area.  This could become quite important in terms of the ongoing NEO.

- Are there still two US Army combat brigades in Kuwait?  the British "Mail on Line," indicates that there are 10,000 US military in Kuwait.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655485/US-no-plans-send-35-000-Middle-East-based-troops-Iraq-al-Qaeda-overruns-two-cities-forces-500-000-flee-lives.html  But are these structured in maneuver brigades that could be useful in an overland NEO?  The article also confirms the presence of USAF F-16s in Kuwait.

- John Kerry is in Iraq to persuade Maliki to become a "cumbaya" kind of fellow.  Good luck to him!

- The seizure of Rutba near the Jordan border is a real threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The IPC hard surface road runs straight from there to Mafraq and then Zarqa'in northern Jordan.  The TAPLINE road that parallels the Saudi border can also be reached overland from Rutba or on the Jordanian road that runs south by Azraq.. Having driven around cross country in that area myself I can tell you that there are enough desert tracks to make that work as well.  We should consider a substantial troop commitment in eastern Jordan.  

pl

Comments

[b]

Agree on Jordan

Pro-ISIS demo in Ma'an, "Jordan's Fallujah" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEoTDtzAnAw

---

Interesting interview with an ISIS commander in Baghdad. Lots of sleepercells there. We can assume the same for Jordan and, maybe, Saudi Arabia?

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2014/06/22/isis-usa-decision-to-hit-us-will-have-a-positive-outcome-and-will-show-a-usal-maliki-alliance-against-the-sunni/

ISIS: ‘USA decision to hit us will have a positive outcome and will show a US/Al-Maliki alliance against the Sunni”

[Tyler]

There's some talk of sending USBP advisors to Jordan on per diem detail now. Got an email gauging "interest".

[confusedponderer]

"The seizure of Rutba near the Jordan border is a real threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia."

That raises a number of questions for me:

I understand that it is Saudi and Gulf money that brought ISIS into business. I don't understand how the Saudis can seriously entertain any illusions about their ability to steer fanatics like ISIS against their 'enemy de jour'. With the seizure of the bank in Tikrit they have made themselves less dependent on foreign funding, which may make them more independent minded according to their beliefs.

The compulsively pious ISIS folks must sse the Saudis as the decadents that they are, and will meet them accordingly if they ever make it to Saudi Arabia. Now that would be something - the modern day Ikhwan raiding into Saudi Arabia from the north for a change (not as their predecessors, the other way around), and doing all the things Ikhwan do - like hanging of a couple thousdand Saudi princes (not that that would necessarily be a loss).

It may be a case of the Saudis overconfidence, that 'what once worked will work again, forever!' It did work in Afghanistan after all, did it not? Well, Afghanistan is far away and Iraq is not.

I wonder, would the Jordanian army be able to deal with ISIS and their ex-Iraqi Army allies? From what I read, the Jordanians have a competent army.

Do the ex-Iraqi Army folks have transnational ambitions? ISIS surely has.

To think further, would the Saudi National Guard that iirc protects the Royals put up a fight if ISIS marched through to Saudi Arabia? Or is the Saudi NG good only to rough up Shia civilians and as a 'coup proofing' force in being against the Saudi Army? Would there be a risk of either Saudi NG or the army join ISIS? Would there be a risk that advanced Saudi weapons fall into ISIS hands?

[turcopolier]

CP

Yes. Jordan used to have a good army. What they are now we may find out. Core ISIS certainly has international ambitions. They do not accept the idea of "countries" at all. I doubt if core ISIS's allies have similar ambitions. pl

[Poul]

Where is Syria in all this?

1) They lose a land supply road from Iraq/Iran

2) They may lose the Iraqi volunteers who fight in and around Damascus.

A large problem or only an inconvenience?

[turcopolier]

poul

An inconvenience. pl

[turcopolier]

b

Ma'an has always been a dicey place. IMO an American force should be placed near Azraq Air Force Base. pl

[FB Ali]

"I understand that it is Saudi and Gulf money that brought ISIS into business".

My impression is that Saudi government support ended with Bandar's ouster and the apparent change in policy. However, private financial support probably still goes on though the government has sought to end it.

The same is the situation with the Gulf sheikhdoms - no official support but considerable private funding. Qatar is known to be funding the al Nusra front; it is not clear how much support they are providing ISIS.

[steve g]

Aren't the Israelis awfully quiet
about all this? Could the end game
of ISSI be the recapture of Al-Quds?

[Denis]

1. "I agree with Gosh. Obama did not do that. Maliki did it."

My understanding was the insurmountable hurdle to continued US presence was Obama's insistence that US personnel retain immunity from prosecution by Iraqi courts. Reasonably enough, the Iraqis had had their fill of US troops and contractors raping 14 year olds and killing their families. For every heinous crime committed by Americans at war that is punished, 50 are never mentioned and 100 are never punished. Ask Calley and Medina.

2. "The seizure of Rutba near the Jordan border is a real threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia."

Threat to the Saudis??? The Saudis ARE the threat. Perhaps I'm really missing something but I thought everyone was pretty clear on the point that the Wahhabis were the financial and spiritual force behind ISIS. Where is all the money coming from for those convoys of brand spanking new white Nissan Tundra pick-ups I keep seeing? Answer: Americans paying $4.50/gal to fill 'er up.

[Margaret Steinfels]

All: Money. Anyone seen any reliable figures on how much the ISIS actually took from the Mosul bank(s). I've read $billions. Billions: but what currency? Or millions?

[turcopolier]

Denis

Because you are Canadian perhaps you do not understand that without legal immunity there was never any possibility that US forces would remain in Iraq. The same thing is true of Afghanistan. The Iraqis knew that and had agreed to it in the draft agreement. I doubt that you would want Canadian soldiers to be subject to Iraqi or Afghan law. The Saudi government may or may not have funded ISIS before Bandar was ousted as intelligence minister, but the Saudi government is certainly a target of ISIS pl

[jonst]

why in the world would any 'force', trying to *not* to provoke an American involvement, want the word Jordan to even be mentioned right now? To do so intentionally, tells me either they felt they had no choice but to take that border crossing/town, or, more likely, for whatever reason, someone is trying to draw us in. The is nothing that will galvanize American opinion faster than a threat to our good ole friends in Amman.

Somebody, within the side being called 'ISIS" by the MSM, wants us to get deeper into this stuff, on the ground.

[jonst]

Calley and Medina, to the limited extent they are relevant here at all, existed long before the days of International Criminal Court. Which granted, we are not a signatory to...still, anyone or entity,potentially can come under their jurisdiction. I suggest.

[Ryan]

Too damn quiet. Usually, for something like this they would be blowing their lungs out.

On the other hand they did bomb some folks in Syria who supposedly fired at them at the Golan Heights. The people they bombed were Syrian Army. Good to see the IAF is supporting their real troops.

[Ryan]

Two mechanized infantry brigades in Kuwait from what I've seen, sir. The overall total of US forces in Kuwait comes to 11,000 personnel.

[b]

@jonst - "Somebody, within the side being called 'ISIS" by the MSM, wants us to get deeper into this stuff, on the ground.
"
That was Al-Qaeda's strategy from the very beginning. Read the interview I linked above. The ISIS guy would welcome U.S. involvement to rally all Sunni against the U.S. That might even work.

[confusedponderer]

Correction: ... they robbed the bank in Mosul, in what must be the robbery of the century, for now.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mosul-seized-jihadis-loot-429m-citys-central-bank-make-isis-worlds-richest-terror-force-1452190

[Ryan]

The SA NG is actually better than the Saudi army. They guard the royal family and I believe the guard is built around one of the bigger tribes that have ties to the royals.

It was troops from them who were sent to Bahrain when all that trouble was going on a while back.

[turcopolier]

All

Among the many things that Kerry apparently does not know about Arab culture is their extreme disinclination to say "no" to guests. A "yes" is meaningless unless it is several times repeated and with emphasis. pl

[confusedponderer]

"Iraq will be "Yemenized" as a matter of policy"

i.e. the US will fly a fleet of drones overhead and bomb targets of opportunity at will?

[Ryan]

Poul,

Here's an article from Yahoo news about the volunteer aspect.

http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-syria-conflicts-merge-feed-off-other-191809080.html

The article says they're starting to return.

[turcopolier]

Ryan

SANG is entirely a Bedouin Wahhabi army formed from the tribes who stayed loyal to the House of Saud during the Ikhwan rebellion in the 20s. There are several of these tribes represented in the full time force of SANG. Components 1- SANG modernized force (two mechanized brigades), SANG regular force a much larger motorized force 3. SANG reserve (part time soldiers) all over the country in Bedouin country. The Saudi Army is made up of Hijazi, Najdi and Asiri townsmen. They are largely worthless. pl

[Ryan]

Thanks, colonel. That is what I couldn't remember exactly about the SA NG.

[different clue]

Doesn't Saudi Arabia contain many private multimillionaires who remain free to fund whomever they like without Royal Family say-so? Or should I suppose that privately wealthy Saudis only contribute with Royal Family permission or under Royal Family orders . . . however "under the table" that permission or those orders may be?