"Iraq crisis: Militants seize Tikrit after taking Mosul" BBC

"The insurgents moved quickly south, entering the town of Baiji late on Tuesday.

There were heavy clashes reported in Tikrit, with dozens of insurgents attacking security forces near the headquarters of the Salaheddin provincial government in the city centre.

One report said that Governor Ahmad Abdallah had been captured, but this has not been confirmed.

One eyewitness told the BBC that gunmen had entered the city from four different directions and a police station had been set on fire."  BBC

------------------------

This is not good. 

If the ISIS forces have already moved as far south as Baiji and Tikrit then there does not seem to be a coherent government defense standing in their way. 

As Lord Slim wrote "first reports are always exagerated."  Let us hope that this is true in this case.

Muqtada al-Sadr is offering to put whatever force he can muster into this fight "in defense of Christian and Muslim shrines."  Remarkable.  Maliki had better think seriously about accepting the offer, otherwise he may end by being yet another Shia "eaten alive" by Sunni jihadis. 

Would Iran intervene?  Possibly.  pl   

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27800319

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jun-11/259713-sadr-calls-for-new-force-to-defend-iraq-religious-sites.ashx#axzz34LX8l9Vp

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Comments

[oofda]

This can't be correct. Didn't Robert Kagan and William Kristol say that the "the road that leads to real security and peace” is “the road that runs through Baghdad?” They could never be wrong! Tikrit is only 95 miles from Baghdad..and the Iraqi Army is disintigrating.
Maybe they just need to redifine "real security and peace."

[Tyler]

Reading that there was a Black hawk and Kiowa at the airport that was captured as well.

[The beaver]

Col

From sources inside the country (via the IFI on H Street)
[quote]
It has just been reported that the Turkish Consul in Mosul together with 24 staff members have been abducted from the Turkish consulate in that city. It has also been reported though not confirmed that several Iraqi politicians and their families have fled Iraq via the Baghdad International Airport (BIAP).[end quote]

[toto]

A quick analysis of the situation, in (of all places) the New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/06/iraq-extremists-mosul-american-invasion-legacy.html

[jonst]

This is not a very orginal statement, but I gotta tell ya, I got a real, real, bad feeling about this. In my nomination for the understatement of the year, this could really lead to wide scale shit.

[John Adamson]

Colonel:

This seems like the Vietnam collapse in 1975. I was struck by the brand new equipment abandoned by troops with no will to fight.

Are the situations comparable?

[rst]

Bad news for "Saudi" Arabia.

[turcopolier]

John Adamson

So far it looks very similar. pl

[Hank Foresman]

We should not be surprised, without a strong hand like that of Saddam, to keep the warring factions in place, this was inevitable. Look for the Kurds to make a move to create an independent state of Kurdistan.

[The Twisted Genius]

Perhaps the American model of building an army and fighting is just not suited for this region. Maliki better take a close look at what Assad is doing in Syria and take al-Sadr up on his offer damned quick. The Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah model is key to Assad's success against the rebels in Syria. They were training and advising the Mahdi Army years ago. Maybe some of those old cadres are ready to come out of retirement.

BTW, maybe we should look at the Hezbollah model for a few lessons. I predict the outcome in Afghanistan will be even worse. Our effort to build an American model army there would be good for a laugh if if it wasn't so damned tragic.

[WP]

All,

Does the Turkish response cause the invocation of the NATO treaty to bring us and the Rest of NATO back into the quagmire? Why do we have so many small countries to whom we have promised our drain our son's and daughter's blood so they react to local or near-regional politics of their neighbors?

[oofda]

More bad news. Fighting reported in Samarra, only 60 miles from Baghdad. Also over 50 Turish citizens have been reported to have been captured/detained at the Turkish Consulate in Mosul. Over 500,000 people displaced from Mosul. And the Iraqi Army is melting away.

A Pentagon spokesman today said this was a job for the Iraqi Security Forces..the problem is, there soon won't be any Iraqi Security Forces. The Army is losing over 300 a day due to desertions and combat losses.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25588623

[Margaret Steinfels]

Another voice heard from: Maliki's failure to reconcile with the Sunnis has come home to roost. http://www.lobelog.com/malikis-folly-empowering-iraqi-extremists/

[confusedponderer]

Well, then thank god Iraq just got their batch of F-16. The Iranian air force is short of new aircraft.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/iraq-seeks-f-16-fighters-05057/

[turcopolier]

All

The US actually and inadvertently created ISIS and the Nusra Front. Our invasion and occupation of Iraq created the opportunity for such groups to come into being. The threat posed by such Sunni jihadi groups was temporarily beaten back by alliance with Sunni tribesmen in the period of the "Sons of Iraq," but the US and the Maliki government abandoned the alliance with these Sunni tribesmen, thus leaving the door open fr the return of the anti-tribal Sunni jihadis. the present combat situation is remarkably like that of the "Ho Chi Minh Campaign" of 1975 in the RVN. In both cases army disintegration followed closely upon initial shocks. IMO the Maliki government must quickly mount a successful counter-offensive or it is doomed. pl

[Medicine Man]

Col.: Should the Maliki government collapse what is the likely outcome? A sunni jihadi Iraq or will neighbors intervene?

[Tidewater]

Sir,

Isn't it true that the Iraq government has some 140 M1A1 Abrams operational? The Ninth Iraqi Armored Division has the job of defending the capital from the north. I will bet they are raring to go and that we are going to see some spectacular things happen if the ISIS forces get too far ahead of themselves. I have no experience of this, but I know that a truck doesn't stand a chance against that kind of force. I would be so bold as to bet that some ISIS units are going to find themselves facing a complete reversal of fortune.

[turcopolier]

Tidewater

Armies are social groups that have weapons. They are not collections of equipment. The ARVN was much more numerous than the NVA in 1975. They were also much more heavily equipped and had been trained intensively for years. Some of their formations like the 1st ARVN Infantry Division had been well thought of and had previously fought well but in 1975 that division fell completely to pieces against smaller NVA forces. As I have said, the Iraqi Army must now mount a successful counter-offensive or the Maliki government is doomed. pl

[John Adamson]

"that division fell completely to pieces against smaller NVA forces."

Do you have any idea of how many ISIS fighters there are in Iraq?

Everything I read indicates we're talking about hundreds of men rather than thousands. ANY kind of resistance should slow them down if not halt their advance.

The way this thing is going, your prediction looks spot on.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

WP, SCT;

The chickens are also coming to roost for the kleptocrats running Turkey. Their support for ISIL seems to have backfired. Their grand bargain with the PKK is unraveling, with southeastern Turkey in turmoil. Latest events in the region have led to calls, in the opposition media, for the resignation of the Chief of Turkish Armed Forces and other government officials. Many issues are becoming more intractable, with no resolution in sight. In my opinion the separatist Kurds in all ME are in trouble. They cannot declare independence: they are almost completey surrounded by many who hate them and see them as traitors. They have no supply routes except through Turkey, and there is no guarantee that this route will stay open, unless guaranteed in hard cash by the US foreign policy establishment. There is a saying in my part of Turkey: "You cannot consummate your marriage with someone else's tool"; a lot of folks in ME might be in for an experimental demonstration of this principle.

Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

MM

IMO a de facto partition of Iraq would likely occur. This would be into a Kurdish area, the Iraqi part of the ISIS emirate and a Shia rump state with the UN seat in the south. pl

[robt willmann]

They were just knowingly spewing out propaganda. I think I also read during the hype to get the 2003 invasion of Iraq going that if the U.S. knocked over Saddam Hussein, then the Palestinian - Israeli matter would be resolved.

[elanecu]

Short video clip apparently showing popular Iraqi army being stoned out of Mosul
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccm-5-U8VBo

[mac]

What a mess.

I wonder if any weapons recently provided to their co-religionists in Syria were used against the Iraqi govt forces?

Also, what is the long term solution here?

Mac

[georgeg]

Where was our intelligence gathering in Iraq?? Were we too busy baking and handing out cookies in the Maidan.....