Sic Semper Tyrannis

khilafa - the Sunni Caliphate

  
"A caliphate (in Arabic: خلافة‎ khilāfa, meaning "succession") is an Islamic state led by a supreme religious and political leader known as a caliph – i.e. "successor" – to Muhammad. The succession of Muslim empires that have existed in the Muslim world are usually described as "caliphates". Conceptually, a caliphate represents a sovereign polity (state) of the entire Muslim faithful (the Ummah, i.e. a sovereign nation state) ruled by a single caliph under the Constitution of Medina and Islamic law (sharia).^"   

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 Basically, one's status as a caliph is dependent on the acceptance of that status by some group of Muslims.  This follows the general pattern of religio/political formation through consensual agreement.in Islamic and Arab culture.  This applies in; ideas, law, government, etc. 

The declaration of the caliphate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Caliph Ibrahim) is a declaration of war against each and every existing Arab and Muslim government because in the presence of a supposed caliph all their governments must be viewed as illegitimate usurpations of the caliph's divinely given religious and political authority.

 

Iraq Diary - 29 June 2014

"Insurgents brought down an Iraqi army helicopter Sunday as Iraqi forces attempted to retake the northern town of Tikrit, which has been overrun by Sunni militants on June 11.

On the second day of a major pushback, Iraq’s military sent in tanks and helicopter gunships to try to dislodge militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL)."  VOA

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 "Iraqi government forces have reportedly been forced to pull back from the northern city of Tikrit after an offensive to reclaim the city from Sunni Muslim militants was blunted by fierce fighting.

The BBC, citing eyewitnesses, reported Sunday that the Iraqi army had fallen back to the town of Dijla, approximately 15 miles to the south. The witnesses said that the government forces' drive to retake Tikrit had been hampered in part my the large number of improvised explosive devices laid on the approach to the city. The witnesses said that security forces continued to shell the city, though what damage those shells may have done is unclear."  Foxnews

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"Iraq's army has routed Sunni militants in a major offensive on the northern city of Tikrit, state media say.

State television said the governor's HQ had been recaptured and 60 fighters from the Isis militant group killed.

A spokesman for the rebels confirmed heavy fighting but implied the attack had failed, saying they were pursuing what was left of the army offensive.

The rebels control large swathes of the north and west after lightning raids that captured the second city, Mosul.

'Flee or be killed'

On Saturday, thousands of Iraqi troops backed by tanks and air power attacked Tikrit from four directions, state TV said.

It said there had been complete success in clearing Isis from the city, with some militant commanders among the 60 killed. It said the other insurgents there had fled."  BBC

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"Iraqi government officials said Sunday that Russian experts had arrived in Iraq to help the army get 12 new Russian warplanes into the fight against Sunni extremists.

The move was at least an implicit rebuke to the United States, where concerns in Congress about the political viability of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government have stalled sales of advanced jet and helicopter combat planes to Iraq.

“In the coming three or four days the aircraft will be in service to support our forces in the fight” against the insurgents of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, said Gen. Anwar Hama Ameen, the commander of the Iraqi Air Force, referring to five SU-25 aircraft that were flown into Iraq aboard Russian cargo planes Saturday night and two more expected later Sunday. General Ameen also said that Russian military experts had arrived as well to help set up the planes, but that they would stay only a short time."  NY Times

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Why the Shia Iraqi air force wants the SU-24 is beyond my limited comprehension.  This is  a high performance, variable geometry aircraft.  It makes a lot more sense to me that they should want the SU- 25.    The SU-25 is a CAS aircraft somewhat analogous to the US A-10.   Maybe there is something wrong with the reporting.  In any event, the Iraqis have no current experience in dealing with aircraft like these.  The idea that they will have them flying in combat in a short time is absurd.  Elsewhere, it is reported that the US is now encouraging the Syrian air force to continue attacking targets in Iraq.  Interesting.

The ground action in Tikrit is intended to break the back of the insurgent coalition.  Terrain objectives like the city of Tikrit have little significance.  The objective has to be the enemy force.  Once that is wrecked, terrain objectives like the Baiji refinery could easily be re-occupied

Not surprisingly, early reports of the progress of the fighting are confusing and contradictory.  It is always thus.  Things will sort themselves out in a couple of days.

The rebel command should attack the logistical tail of the Shia army between Tikrit and Baghdad.  There is no reason to fight them frontally in Tikrit other than to fix them in place.  This armored force has many, many vehicles and can easily be starved of fuel.  pl 

 

http://www.voanews.com/content/iraqi-forces-battle-for-tikrit-lawmakers-face-july-1-deadline/1947245.html

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/29/iraq-forces-battle-militants-for-control-key-northern-city-tikrit/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28069800

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/world/middleeast/iraq.html?_r=0

 

 

Choosing enemies, propaganda, regime change and plain dumb policy - by Confusedponderer

 

"Why will we not listen to the Syrian government?"

That is an interesting question. Of course it would be reasonable for the US to come to terms with Assad, but hostility towards Assad was a choice the US made a while back. However, there was nothing inevitable about it, and one has to be clear about the fact that this hostility was a choice the US made.

In a sense, this is emblematic for a number of wrongheaded trends in contemporary US foreign policy that I have been watching first with incredulity and finally with terror over the years.

Self-imposed cul-de-sacs

A US standard operating procedure is one of personal demonization of the leaders of countries designated as enemies. Once the label has been put on such a country, my impression is that US media start to want to help, and they then start to amplify government propaganda, and self-censor by not reporting things that may shed a good light on such countries.

As it is with propaganda, it works best at home. As far as the US is concerned Russia is Putin, Iraq was Saddam, Afghanistan is Karzai, Iran was Ahmadinejad, Syria is Assad, Libya was Gadhafi, Egypt was Mubarak, Mursi and now Sisi. People live there too, but that’s details. What counts is that every single one of these leaders is another Hitler. In light of that it is probably not an accident that US citizens consistently poll poorly on matters concerning the rest of the world.

This is a self-inflicted wound. It makes changes of policy, necessary in case of observable failure, a tough sell. So tough in fact that once a policy it is set on course in then US, it usually runs almost on autopilot. There is no re-examination, no course correction. Cuba is a case in point.

It appears that the US are ill advised to demonize opposing leaders. It limits freedom of movement politically. Also, words have consequences, a lesson lost on DC, considering the invective heaped on Putin by what the US nowadays employs as diplomats. But maybe the destruction of trust and the deliberate squandering of goodwill is the very point of the exercise.

Staying on course probably is just too much fun: Assad is evil. Putin is a KGB thug. Deal with such a guy??! LOL. #putinstinks. ROFL. Kin Yong Il has a funny hairdo. *snicker*

What else is left to say after that? Well, a lot actually.

 

Iraq/Syria Diary - 28 June 2014

"The initial assault on Thursday involved commandos from a unit that reports directly to Maliki. They were airlifted aboard three helicopters to Tikrit University’s stadium, where they were met with heavy fire from ISIS. At least one of the helicopters was shot down.

The commandos managed in all-night fighting to take control of tall buildings near the stadium, according to witnesses and local residents. On Friday, they were reinforced by militiamen believed to be members of the Shiite group Asiab al Haq, an Iranian-trained militia with extensive experience fighting in Iraq against the U.S.-led occupation and in Syria in support of the regime of Bashar Assad, which faces its own Sunni rebel uprising. Reports indicated the commandos and militia members were battling to expand their perimeter late Friday, with uncertain results."    sacbee.com

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This is it folks, the beginning of the once and probably final BIG PUSH.  Something like the Somme in 1916?  No.  "aboard three helicopters?"  "A unit that reports directly to Maliki?"  Really?  That's what they've got?  Three helicopters of some kind of internal security police troops, Really?  asphalt soldiers?  Really?

How many ground troops?  We don't know as yet.  

"Defeat would be disaster?"  Well brace for it.  As Farrell would say, "feet and knees together, eyes on the horizon."  pl

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/27/6517739/iraqi-commandos-and-shiite-militias.html#storylink=cpy

 http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/27/6517739/iraqi-commandos-and-shiite-militias.html#storylink=cpy 

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"“These planes are over 20 years old,” said a senior military officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss the negotiations. He voiced concerns that using the outdated technology could mean large numbers of civilian casualties. “Even when you get them, you still need training for pilots. They aren’t just taxis that one can just jump into and drive,” he added, pointing out that many of the Iraqis who were trained to fly them are now too old.

Iran impounded about 130 planes after fleeing Iraqi pilots sought sanctuary in the country during the 1991 Gulf War, Iraqi officials say. The aircraft include 24 Soviet-made Su-24s, 24 French Mirage F1s and 12 MiG-23s."  washpost

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"Feet and knees together..."  These relics and wrecks have been sitting in the sun somewhere baking  for 23 years.  No further comment is necessary.  The airpersons here will comment.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2014/06/27/be172f43-cf98-4677-8e6d-4d64a5ae5e1d_story.html

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"The Syrian rebels that the U.S. now wants to support are in poor shape, on the retreat from the radical al-Qaida breakaway group that has swept over large parts of Iraq and Syria, with some rebels giving up the fight. It is not clear whether the new U.S. promise to arm them will make a difference.

Some, more hard-line Syrian fighters are bending to the winds and joining the radicals.

The Obama administration is seeking $500 million to train and arm what it calls "moderate" factions among the rebels, a far larger project than a quiet CIA-led effort in Jordan that has been training a few hundreds fighters a month. But U.S. officials say it will take a year to get the new program fully underway. The U.S. also faces the difficult task of what constitutes a "moderate" rebel in a movement dominated by Islamist ideologies."  abcnews

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Yes, by all means let's continue to treat the Syrian government as a pariah state.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-rebels-buckling-face-jihadis-24341179 

 

Moderate Syrian Rebel Application Form - Borowitz/Walrus

This appeared in the New Yorketr today via The Borowitz Report and is posted without comment. Walrus

 

"Welcome to the United States’ Moderate Syrian Rebel Vetting Process. To see if you qualify for $500 million in American weapons, please choose an answer to the following questions:

As a Syrian rebel, I think the word or phrase that best describes me is:
A) Moderate
B) Very moderate
C) Crazy moderate
D) Other

I became a Syrian rebel because I believe in:
A) Truth
B) Justice
C) The American Way
D) Creating an Islamic caliphate

If I were given a highly lethal automatic weapon by the United States, I would:
A) Only kill exactly the people that the United States wanted me to kill
B) Try to kill the right people, with the caveat that I have never used an automatic weapon before
C) Kill people only after submitting them to a rigorous vetting process
D) Immediately let the weapon fall into the wrong hands

I have previously received weapons from:
A) Al Qaeda
B) The Taliban
C) North Korea
D) I did not receive weapons from any of them because after they vetted me I was deemed way too moderate

I consider ISIS:
A) An existential threat to Iraq
B) An existential threat to Syria
C) An existential threat to Iraq and Syria
D) The people who will pick up my American weapon after I drop it and run away

Complete the following sentence. “American weapons are…”
A) Always a good thing to randomly add to any international hot spot
B) Exactly what this raging civil war has been missing for the past three years
C) Best when used moderately
D) Super easy to resell online

Thank you for completing the Moderate Syrian Rebel Application Form. We will process your application in the next one to two business days. Please indicate a current mailing address where you would like your weapons to be sent. If there is no one to sign for them we will leave them outside the front door."  Borowitz

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http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/06/moderate-syrian-rebel-application-form.html

 

 

Iraq and Syria diary - 27 June 2014

  

"Jets from Russia and Belarus will hopefully make a key difference in the fight against ISIS in Iraq, the country’s Prime Minister Nouri Maliki said. He expressed regrets over Iraq's contract with the US, saying their jets are taking too long to arrive.

"God willing within one week this force will be effective and will destroy the terrorists' dens," he toldBBC Arabic.

Meanwhile, Maliki criticized the process of purchasing US jets as “long-winded,” adding that the radicals could have been repelled if Iraq had proper air defense."  RT

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"... could have been repelled if Iraq had proper air defense."  Really?  How?   This is magical thinking.  Contrary to delusions created by advocates of air power, you must have; staff planning capacity,  sound maintenance and actual targeting to make air power effective against ground forces or any other forces.  

Who is going to fly these jets?  Russians, Belorussians, Iranians?  The Mahdi's Army?  Who is going to do the maintenance, run the supply chain and do the targeting?  Who?

The rebel coalition is also seeking to arm itself with captured aircraft, mainly helicopters.  they have several advantages in this process.  1- A lot of the helicopters are of Russian manufacture.  The old Iraqi army men who make up the real military capability of the rebel coalition include a lot of helicopter pilots and mechanics.  2- the airbases north of Baghadad are treasures filled with spare prts and ordnance.  3 - It's a lot easier to vector helicopters in CAS than to target fast movers (jet fighters).

http://rt.com/news/168744-russia-jets-iraq-maliki/

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 "Kent Conrad’s phone hasn’t been ringing very much over the past few weeks, as Iraq, and the debate over America's future in the country, has once again dominated the news.

The architects of the Iraq war are back in TV studios and on op-ed pages, as are journalists and pundits who promoted the Bush administration’s ultimately bogus case for invading. But Conrad, a former senator who was one of only 23 to vote against authorizing the war in October 2002, hasn’t heard from CNN, MSNBC or any other TV outlet. "Not once," he said, when asked if anyone in the press had reached out regarding the current crisis in Iraq.  Huff Post

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I have been called several times in the last week and have declined.  So this is not "sour grapes."  I prefer to leave the whoring after network money to those who desire it and who have been well briefed by the US government.  The same guys were on the TV payrolls and the briefing list in 2003.  Major exceptions to this blanket condemnation are; Jack Jacobs and Andrew Bacevich.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/27/iraq-war-critics-tv-bookers_n_5534549.html

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 "The Obama administration has proposed escalating US involvement in the Syrian civil war, asking Congress for $500m for the US military to train and equip "moderate" Syrian rebels.

The request to Congress on Thursday, heralded by Barack Obama's vow, made during a speech at West Point military academy, to step up assistance to a beleaguered Syrian force, comes as the administration searches for effective alternatives to the jihadist army that has carved out massive swaths of Syria and Iraq for an Islamic state."  The Guardian

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Why?  Why?  The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is one of the smaller and weaker elements in the galaxy of anti Syrian government forces. They have had their asses kicked by the SAG, al-Nusra and ISIS.  They will continue to have their asses kicked.  The SAG' armed forces have become a much stronger force and the notion that the FSA will somehow be transformed into the winners of  the Syrian jug f--k is amusing.

Bashar Assad wants to be taken in from the cold, just as Qathafi wanted the same thing.  

From the time we relented about Qathafi until we chose to get rid of him, Qathafi was not a problem for the US.  Why will we not listen to the Syrian government?  pl  

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/26/obama-seeking-500m-training-moderate-syrian-rebels

Not a good time for governors and presidents

 

"Mr. Obama had tried to maneuver around longstanding Republican efforts to block his appointments to the National Labor Relations Board by seating members during pro forma sessions of the Senate when almost all of the senators were at home in their districts and no legislative business was conducted.

The court ruled that the president’s action violated the Constitution and said that the Senate and House have the ultimate power to block such recess appointments by scheduling the mini-sessions when they want to."  NY Times

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"Politics ain't beanbag, the old saying goes. Childishness and petty vengefulness are part of the game. The game is ugly. We all know that.

Even so, we are disappointed that Gov. Terry McAuliffe has shown himself to be the shyster we feared during the campaign, not the statesman Virginia needs."   Staunton News Leader

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It seems that the "unitary executive" theory of political power in the United States is experiencing some "heavy weather."  

Obama's white house was more or less in mourning yesterday, even as he went to "flyover America" to be with people who would appreciate the attention.  SCOTUS did not altogether eliminate the president's ability to make recess appointments but the overall tone of the unanimous decision woud seem to be a warning.  This warning would be to the effect that Obama should be careful not push his campaign of executive actions beyond the limits of the law.  At the same time the Speaker of the House has publicly announced his intention to sue Obama for exceeding his legal authority in the same executive actions.

"The shyster we feared."  Woof!  The Staunton News Leader is a major newspaper in Virginia and it is generally favorably inclined toward what passes for liberal thought in the Commonwealth.  For them to call Mcaullife a "shyster" is no small thing.  

At the same time the General Assembly lurks in Richmond, hoping that McAullife's arrogance and temper will eventually yield a chance to really, really hurt him.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/us/politics/justices-decision-opens-fresh-debate-on-limits-of-presidential-power.html?_r=0

http://www.newsleader.com/story/opinion/editorials/2014/06/24/mcauliffe-fighter-statesman/11336001/

Iraq Diary - 26 June 2014

"... a new insurgent artillery offensive against Christian villages in the north of Iraq on Wednesday sent thousands of Christians fleeing from their homes, seeking sanctuary in the Kurdish enclave. The shelling of the a cluster of villages happened in an area known as Hamdaniya, 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the frontier of the self-ruled Kurdish region."  firstpost

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So, the rebels have field artillery now.  They did not bring that into Iraq, so one must conclude that they captured these guns from the the "Lions of the North,"  i.e., (Maliki's "army")  Note that artillery normally means field guns of 105 mm or larger.  Iraq had until recently a wide variety of field guns in calibers from 122 mm to 155 mm.  These have ranges of 15 to 20 miles (approximately).  ISIS style headchoppers have no ability to employ such toys unless they want to squint down the barrels and pull the lanyards.  Don't laugh.  I have seen the fighting Yemeni Army do exactly that with 155  mm howitzers against tribals after the soldiers ran out of patience with the whole business of indirect fire.  The old Iraqi Army had a lot of artillery and there must be no lack of talent to man these guns.  This artillery will pound anything they are used against into rubble and dust.  pl

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 "The Syrian air force carried out air strikes targeting militants along the Iraq-Syria border this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the BBC.

Maliki told the British broadcaster he "welcomed" any such strike against militants led by the jihadist Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, but noted Baghdad did not request the aerial raids which took place on Tuesday." firstpost

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 So...  The Iraq and Syrian governments are cooperating militarily against ISIS.  So... the US is helping Maliki fight ISIS while still insisting that Maliki's ally, Bashar al Assad, is a BAD, BAD MAN!!  Does that make any sense?  The friend of our friend is...   What?  Why does Maliki "welcome" Syrian Air Force action against these Iraqi border towns.  Simple, these towns in western Iraq are altogether Sunni inhabited.  Therefore...  pl

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 "Powerful Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr Wednesday voiced opposition to US military advisers who have begun meeting with Iraqi commanders, and warned that his supporters would "shake the ground" in combatting militants.

"We will shake the ground under the feet of ignorance and extremism," he said, referring to Sunni insurgents who have overrun a swathe of territory in the past two weeks, in a televised speech from the Shiite holy city of Najaf."  firstpost

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Self explanatory.  Any American, Canadian or Brit who is in the Baghdad area should get out NOW if they possibly can,  Shia attacks on Westerners are a certainty.  I wonder how much of the US Embassy has been emptied out.  pl 

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"Insurgents have surrounded a massive air base nearby, which was known as "Camp Anaconda" under U.S. occupation, and struck it with mortars. Eyewitnesses said the air base had been surrounded on three sides."  ibtimes

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So... The Iraqi air force has recently possessed a flock of helicopters many of which are of Soviet or Russian manufacture.  The old Iraq Air force had masses of such helicopters.  Once again there will be no lack of talent among the rebels.  That air base, as well as Balad and Taji, also north of Baghdad, is a rich prize in terms of materiel, spare parts, fuel, and airordnance.  So... The rebels are going to have an airforce eventually.

We already know that the rebels captured a lot of armored fighting vehicles and have been moving the around.  

The prospects are not good.  pl  

http://www.firstpost.com/world/iraq-live-maliki-confirms-airstrikes-on-militants-were-carried-out-by-syria-1576009.html

http://www.ibtimes.com/militants-attack-iraq-air-base-us-assessment-teams-deploy-1611138?ft=95p2z

Wormtongue Speaks By Walrus.

"Though President Obama has spoken about ramping up our support for the opposition in Syria, we are late to that effort. It is time for the United States to assume the responsibility of quarterbacking the entire assistance effort to ensure that more meaningful aid — lethal, training, intelligence, money and humanitarian — not only gets to those who are fighting both ISIS and the Assad regime but is fully coordinated and complementary."  latimes

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As predicted, the Neocon solution to the problems the application of their policies have created for us in the Middle East is more of the same.

I heard a Neocon speaking on Friday about the current situation; his defence was; "How could we have known?", "What would you do?". My unvoiced answer;  fire the policy makers, opinion leaders, commentators and analysts who  advocated these adventures in the first place for it is axiomatic in business that the people who got you into a mess aren't he people who can get you out of it.

If the West doesn't have the ability to observe and correct its policy failures, then we deserve to be consigned to the dustbin of history. The starting point for that has to be the realisation that deliberate destabilisation of countries and regions is not a good idea at the best of times and eschewing the advice of anyone who thinks it is. Leave Syria, Ukraine and Iran alone lest we summon unstoppable demons from the abyss.

Read the rest of Dennis Ross's drivel  if you have the stomach for it.  Walrus

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-ross-isis-iraq-syria-20140624-story.html

 

 

Baiji has Fallen

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Baiji has fallen to "the rebels". The reporting is very unclear as to whether this means ISIL or the more tribal and more rural Sunnis and (non-exile) Shi'a that were the Awakenings and Sons of Iraq, as well as those that were also former Baathists or members of the Iraqi Army under Saddam Hussein. Regardless, the Government of Iraq no longer controls the refinery complex.

When I was deployed south and east of Baghdad in 2008 the Baiji refinery was producing much more heavy fuel oil than fuel for vehicles. It was being used to generate electricity, as well as as an industrial fuel. My understanding of this was that the manner in which the refining was being done produced significantly more heavy fuel oil than gasoline. If that is still the case, then the capture of the refinery not only impacts the Iraqis ability to fuel their cars and trucks, but also to generate electricity, cool their homes, and run a number of industrial activities. Iraqis pump water through their irrigation canals for agriculture with electricity generated by burning heavy fuel oil, so the capture of Baiji could seriously impact Iraq's still struggling agricultural sector. Should that take a significant hit, then people will migrate to towns and cities looking for work. This will create further sectarian stress. It will also recreate the phenomenon of 2006 through 2009 where (usually) men would take money to either assist with building IEDs, emplacing them, and/or detonating them so they had money to feed their families. They were not necessarily anti-Iraqi government or against the Coalition Forces, just desparate and ripe for exploitation.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Iraq diary - 23 June 2014

 

-  Bobby Gosh, the Christian Palestinian editor of Time magazine, said today on "Morning Mika," that the greatest untruth currently circulating is the canard concerning whether or not Obama really wanted to maintain a residual US military presence in Iraq.  He said, to Lightning Joe's consternation, that the the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that Obama wanted a residual of something like 10,000 for; command and staff advisory duties as well as supply management, CT ops, intelligence analysis and collection, etc.  Gosh insisted that it was Maliki and company who altogether rejected that plan through the mechanism of having the Iraqi parliament reject legal extraterritoriality for the remaining US troops.  I agree with Gosh.  Obama did not do that.  Maliki did it.

- It seems clear that the Obama Administration is attempting to "manage" the narrative on Iraq by feeding its point of view to selected news people.  The soccer fan (Joe) who sits to her left on "Morning Mika," is just sooo self assured when he talks about the situation in Iraq It seems likely that he is getting  lot of attention from PAO people in the government.  And then, there is Chuck Todd.  He has been saying for days that "people in Washington," are telling him that Iraq will be "Yemenized" as a matter of policy.  Which "people in Washington?"

- Yesterday (22 June) ISIS fighters shot up  a police bus in the area of Hillah (SOUTH of Baghdad).  the police were transferring prisoners to a prison just north of Baghdad.  71 people were killed. This means that there is an ISIS presence SOUTH of Baghdad.  The roads to Kuwait run through this area.  This could become quite important in terms of the ongoing NEO.

- Are there still two US Army combat brigades in Kuwait?  the British "Mail on Line," indicates that there are 10,000 US military in Kuwait.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655485/US-no-plans-send-35-000-Middle-East-based-troops-Iraq-al-Qaeda-overruns-two-cities-forces-500-000-flee-lives.html  But are these structured in maneuver brigades that could be useful in an overland NEO?  The article also confirms the presence of USAF F-16s in Kuwait.

- John Kerry is in Iraq to persuade Maliki to become a "cumbaya" kind of fellow.  Good luck to him!

- The seizure of Rutba near the Jordan border is a real threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The IPC hard surface road runs straight from there to Mafraq and then Zarqa'in northern Jordan.  The TAPLINE road that parallels the Saudi border can also be reached overland from Rutba or on the Jordanian road that runs south by Azraq.. Having driven around cross country in that area myself I can tell you that there are enough desert tracks to make that work as well.  We should consider a substantial troop commitment in eastern Jordan.  

pl

Iraq diary - 22 June 2014

 

- It is now clear that Iran does not want the US back in Iraq.  this raises the odds for a direct Iranian intervention against the Sunni rebels.  It also increases the chance of Iraqi Shia direct action against US personnel in Iraq.

- An Iraqi Army brigade (several thousand men) evidently completely disintegrated under rebel attack yesterday in western Anbar Province. This raises the level of my concern that something similar may occur with regard to Iraqi Army forces in general.  Many armies are brittle instruments in which fear spreads from man to man untill all are running away, abandoning their equipment to the enemy.  

-  Haditha is now in rebel hands whether there are still Iraqi Army units in the area or not.  The direct road to Baiji is open.

-  The ISIS produced long tape on their occupation of Ramadi and Fallujah earlier this year reveals the hopelss incompetence of the Maliki government's forces.  In one scene a small group of ISIS fighters armed with small arms, RPG-7s and satchel charges attack and overrun what looks like a police station.  The facility is situated on the immediate side of the road.  There are no fields of fire open to defenders.  There are no fighting positions from which defenders can fire.  There is no barbed wire or other obstacles outside the fortlet. The attackers simply walk up to the wall, throw a satchel charge into the courtyard and then crawl through a hole in the wall to massacre the inhabitants.  Incredible!  This incompetence rivals that of the US Army in the construction and siting of outposts in eastern Afghanistan during the period of the greatest infatuation with the COIN nonsense.  pl 

 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/06/22/iraq-qaeda-sunni-syria/11232403/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/22/us-iraq-security-idUSKBN0EX0BJ20140622

http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/iran-rejects-us-action-in-iraq-1.1707221#.U6bqc_ldVQQ

Is the Pentagon "briefing" retired military media analysts again?

"The Pentagon military analyst program was an information operation of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) that was launched in early 2002 by then-Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Victoria Clarke.^[1] The goal of the operation is "to spread the administrations's talking points on Iraq by briefing retired commanders for network and cable televisionappearances," where they have been presented as independent analysts;^[2]Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said the Pentagon's intent is to keep the American people informed about the so-called War on Terrorism by providing prominent military analysts with factual information and frequent, direct access to key military officials.^{[3"  Wiki on the program.}

-----------------------------

Ten years ago this was a hot issue.  The intention of the Rumsfeld Pentagon in that program was clearly to control and create the media delivered narrative with regard to the "Global War On Terrorism."  

Is this happening again?

I watch a lot of 24/7 television news.  This is a personal failing that I acknowledge freely.  I fritter away my time in this way to "feed" my obsession with this blog.  

We now have  several very contentious overseas military crises; Boku Haram and the Lost Girls,  Ukraine, Syria, a deteriorating politico-military situation in Afghanistan and the truly big "Kahuna," Iraq.  The temptation must be severe among the Public Affairs squirrels to want to "handle' these problems by manipulating the message.  After all, these PAO people have to justify their continuing existence.

In the last week I have heard several suspicious statements made on the air by retired US officers under contract to the media, statements that indicate to me that some sort of communication has been re-established between DoD and the media military "analysts."

On two occasions a retired officer said on the air that he had been in communication with "the Pentagon" and had been told the true story on Iraq.  He seemed to think that was normal and that this injection of "the poop" into his knowledge base made his statements worthwhile.

On another occasion a retired four star general who works for a different network, described the 300 special operations advisers going to Iraq as "very mature, very skilled and capable of accomplishing their missions."  This retired general never served in special operations, has never been particularly friendly towards special operations forces, and has no present contact with these forces.  My question:  how would he know all this unless he has been privately assured by the Obama Administration and DoD of what it is that he should think about "the advisers."

Does history repeat itself?  Perhaps it does.  pl  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentagon_military_analyst_program

Iraq Diary - 21 June 2014

"Sunni militants have seized an Iraqi crossing on the border with Syria after a daylong battle in which they killed some 30 Iraqi troops, security officials said on Saturday. 

The capture of the Qaim border crossing deals a further blow to prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, which has struggled to push back against Islamic extremists and allied militants who have seized large swaths of the country, including the second largest city Mosul, and who have vowed to march on Baghdad.

Police and army officials said the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and allied militants seized the crossing near the border town of Qaim, about 320 kilometers (200 miles) west of Baghdad, after battling Iraqi troops all day Friday.

----------------

It seems that the importance of geography in war is not well understood anymore.  Four days ago we forecast here that the rebel coalition would attack to clear and hold the al-Qaim Euphrates river crossing and the associated border crossing into Syria.  It was clear that the rebels would need to open their line of communication into Syria.   They have done that and have also taken the town of Rawah farther to the east on the Euphrates.  There is another major bridge at Rawah and desert roads go straight north from that bridge to Tel 'Afar and thence to the Mosul area.   Captured Iraqi Army equipment is moving steadily to the west and south to Aleppo in some cases but most certainly down the gravel roads to Rawah and then on into Anbar Province to reinforce rebel forces.  There are now photographs on the internet of Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET) loaded down with captured upgraded humvees, tanks and artillery.   East of Rawah there is yet another bridge across the Euphrates at Haditha.  This bridge is in rebel hands.  A hard surface road runs straight from the bridge to Baiji where 200 government troops are fighting to retain the Baiji oil refinery.  Pay attention, folks, the people running the rebel offensive know their craft well.  pl 

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/militants-seize-iraq-border-post-kill-30-troops/article1-1231907.aspx

http://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Iraq-premier-tested-by-political-rivals-offensive-5566368.php

http://news.yahoo.com/isil-seizes-key-towns-eastern-syria-monitoring-group-155109408.html

***************

"Hundreds of Iraq troops battling for control of the vital Baiji oil refinery are outnumbered, surrounded and remain trapped inside the facility, a U.S. official told ABC News.

The battle for the refinery was in its fifth day today, although fighters for the radical Islamic militia ISIS have apparently taken control of much of the facility and are willing to keep the government forces isolated until they run out of food and ammunition, sources said.

"There is very little the Iraqi government can do to save or liberate those guys," a U.S. official told ABC News." ABC News

http://abcnews.go.com/International/hundreds-troops-remain-surrounded-iraqs-key-refinery-us/story?id=24243767

***************** 

"Nassir al-Saedi, a cleric loyal to the firebrand Muqtada al-Sadr, referred to America as "the occupier" in a sermon during Friday prayers and added "We will be ready for you if you are back."

On Thursday, President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. would send 300 military advisers to provide intelligence and training to the Iraqi army in its fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), a group that has already taken wide swathes of territory in Iraq's north and west. 

But the Shiite militias formed in response to the current ISIS offensive could represent a dangerous wild card in the new battle for Iraq. The Mahdi Army, a militia loyal to al-Sadr, battled U.S. troops and was blamed for attacks on Sunni civilians during the height of the country's sectarian bloodletting in 2006 and 2007. The same was true of several Iran-backed militias in the years prior to the American withdrawal in 2011. Last week, in the wake of the capture of the cities of Mosul and Tikrit by ISIS, al-Sadr has called for the formation of "peace brigades" to repel attacks on sites holy to Shiites across Iraq. " Foxnews

----------------------

Moqtada al-Sadr's "boys" are not called the "Mahdi Army."  That would IMO be "al-jeish al-mahdi"  meaning an army that had some of the characteristics of the mahdi.  In fact, in Arabic this force is called "jeish al-mahdi," i.e., the mahdi's army.  In other words, they are the mahdi's own forces who await his imminent appearance perhaps in the company of Jesus.  Most of them think that the mahdi will be the long "hidden" Shia Imam whose re-appearance they have longed for over many centuries.  These are religious fanatics in the truest sense of the words.  They are every bit as dangerous to foreigners or Sunni Musims as the ISIS jihadis are to Shia people.  

US "advisers" working in Iraq in the midst of Iraqi Shia will be in constant danger from Shia who share this alim's hatred of foreigners.

The Commander in Chief will be sorry that he has made such a decision.   pl 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/21/shiite-cleric-issues-threat-to-us-military-advisers-as-iraq-militants-take/

“demagoguery, lies, fear and cowardice...” McAullife

“The Governor’s attempt to usurp the constitutionally proscribed powers of the legislative branch is a dangerous threat to the rule of law, separation of powers, and foundation of representative democracy that we simply cannot allow,” House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) and other House GOP leaders said in a joint statement. “We are prepared to challenge this blatant executive overreach through all available avenues, including the court system.”  Washpost

"Sen. Mark D. Obenshain (R-Harrisonburg), meanwhile, condemned McAuliffe’s “outrageous display of executive arrogance,” and Del. Greg D. Habeeb (R-Salem) said the governor “has made it clear he believes he was elected Emperor.”"  Washpost

"Republicans note that the state Supreme Court has ruled that a governor can veto entire budget items but not portions of those items. Since the language is part of a broader Medicaid budget item, Republicans say it is possible that McAuliffe cannot veto that portion without vetoing the state’s entire Medicaid program."  Washpost

----------------------------

I wrote some time ago that Medicaid expansion as an issue would likely destroy McAullife politically.  That seems more likely with every belligerent and bombastic move McAullife makes.

“demagoguery, lies, fear and cowardice...”

In Virginia, such words cannot be taken back.  The General Assembly will seek a way to make McAullife pay for these words.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gov-terry-mcauliffe-vetoes-portions-of-virginia-budget-prolonging-medicaid-standoff/2014/06/20/960d98a8-f879-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.html

Ceasefire in Ukraine? by Walrus.

The Western press is reporting that President Poroshenko has declared a ceasefire in the Eastern Ukraine and  proposes a range of measures to restore peace in the region. According to "The Independant".

"Much hinges on whether Moscow finds the terms of the blueprint acceptable and uses its sway with the rebels, who have so far rejected the proposals."

One could perhaps be forgiven for wondering if the reporting of events in Ukraine are the result of journalistic laziness or direct political dictation from Washington when even The Independent accepts this so called peace plan without analysis. As Russophiles point out, it amounts to a request for capitulation from the separatists.

Furthermore, if capitualtion is not forthcoming, it seems likely that an all out assault on the beseiged city of Slavyansk, with concomitant civialian casualties will occur.

Russophile analysis is that the pressure on President Putin to intervene militarily will become unbearable should he try to shirk this "responsibility to protect".

I assume Washington is calculating that when, not if, Russia intervenes, that such intervention will be "surgical", "proportionate" and with "limited aims" and that the West can manage the crisis to its advantage.

Personally, I think this is a dangerous assumption. Were I Putin, I would want to give the West a lesson it will never forget, lest this death by a thousand cuts continue. 

In respect of a set piece attack on Slavyansk, I am reminded of Churchill's comment regarding Rommels spoiling attack on Eighth Army preparations: "but the bear blew first". 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-calls-ceasefire-as-moscow-defends-border-troop-movement-9553087.html

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/ukraine-sitrep-june-20th-1330-utczulu.html

 

 

 

PPT on "Islamic Religion in Iraq."

 

I did this PPT some years ago as a teaching aid when I was training soldiers for Iraq.  pl 

Download Islamic Religion in Iraq

"Iraqi forces ready push..." Reuters

 "Iraqi forces were massing north of Baghdad on Friday, aiming to strike back at Sunni Islamists whose drive toward the capital prompted the United States to send military advisers to stiffen government resistance."  Reuters

"In the area around Samarra, on the main highway 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, which has become a frontline of the battle with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the provincial governor, a rare Sunni supporter of Maliki, told cheering troops they would now force ISIL and its allies back.

A source close to Maliki told Reuters that the government planned to hit back now that it had halted the advance which saw ISIL seize the main northern city of Mosul, capital of Nineveh province, 10 days ago and sweep down along the Sunni-populated Tigris valley toward Baghdad as the U.S.-trained army crumbled.

Governor Abdullah al-Jibouri, whose provincial capital Tikrit was overrun last week, was shown on television on Friday telling soldiers in Ishaqi, just south of Samarra: "Today we are coming in the direction of Tikrit, Sharqat and Nineveh.

"These troops will not stop," he added, saying government forces around Samarra numbered more than 50,000."  Reuters

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One of the major errors being made in the US military concerning the present situation in Iraq is to view it solely as a COIN/CT problem. The media has picked this up and people like "Chuck" Todd are now urging the adoption of CT methods like those in use in Yemen.  The Iraq situation is much more than that, but the US armed forces seem to be so hypnotised by the COIN/CT experience that they can see little else.  

This expected advance from the Baquba/Samarra area will be the major opportunity that the Iraq military will have to reverse the situation and regain ground lost to the north in the direction of Mosul.  What has been assembled for the effort is the bulk of the maneuver reserve of the Iraqi Army.   Once launched on this offensive, the "wind up" mechanism inherently present in any army will start to run down as distance, resistance, weather, maintenance problems, expenditures of supplies; fuel (POL), ammuniition and food all contribute to a decline in capability as the force moves forward.   The question then becomes whether or not the offensive or attack reaches the objective before the negatives affecting the operation outweigh the positive factors.  The point at which this crossover of factors and weights occurs was described by Clausewitz as the "culminating point" of the attack.   The way this works is that if the attack carries to the objective before the culminating point is reached success is easily achieved.  If the culminating point is reached before the objective is taken, then the situation of the attacking force becomes more and more tenuous and the stage is set for a sudden and dramatic reversal of positions, one in which the attacking force finds itself on the defensive far from its base of supply.  We will see.  It is a long way to Mosul from Baquba. (Humor: perhaps this maximum effort could be called "Operation mawt li mu'awiya")

At the same time, another rebel coalition force lurks to the West in eastern Anbar Province positioned to move against the flank or supply lines of an Iraqi Army force moving north toward Mosul.

This is not a good position to be in considering the performance to date of Iraqi government forces.

The functions of US personnel re-injected into this maelstrom are several.  Most importantly, they will try to advise Iraqi commanders how better to use their available forces.  Good luck to them on that job!  What leverage will they have in doing this?  Some others will be there to use laser designators to signal targets to bombers if it becomes necessary to defend Baghdad.  Yet others are available to organize an evacuation if that becomes necessary.  There are also 150 men for embassy security.  These are all difficult tasks.   pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/20/us-iraq-security-idUSKBN0EV0PB20140620

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culminating_point

I include a link to an article I wrote with partners on the subject of culminating points in the US civil war.  It is entitled "Jackson's Valley Campaign and the Operational Level of War." It was published in Parameters, the US Army War College Journal in 1985

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/1985/1985%20lang%20hennessee%20bush.pdf

 

Iraq/Afghanistan Diary - 19 June 2014

- Well there you are, the NY Times has discovered that the forces facing the Maliki government's army are actually a coalition of; ISIS head choppers, ex old Iraq Army people, and the Sunni tribes that fought beside us against ISIS like groups in the days of the Awakening.  It seems to me that I read something like that elsewhere a while back...  Ah, yes!  It was here.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/19/world/middleeast/former-loyalists-of-saddam-hussein-crucial-in-helping-isis.html?emc=edit_th_20140619&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=405151

-  The Baiji refinery.  I have not read anywhere in the media that the products of this refinery are all for Iraqi domestic consumption.  Like most oil producers, Iraq exports crude, not refined products.  pl

http://wiki.openoil.net/index.php?title=Baiji_Refinery

- Someone wrote to SST predicting downfall  for the rebels when they encountered the fearsome Iraqi 9th Armored Division (perhaps their honorific name should be "Masquf on Wheels").  That is undoubtedly an M1A1 Abrams brewed up after a hit from an anti-tank missile.  The warhead went all the way through the armor.  This picture dates from Iraqi Army attempts to regain ground in Anbar some months ago.  pl

http://www.janes.com/article/39550/iraqi-abrams-losses-revealed

- Abdullah Abdullah says to hell with the electoral commission.  He hasn't lost yet and is already denouncing the outcome of the presidential election.  This does not bode well for a stable presidency adorned by a chief executive who will meekly sign the SOFA.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/iraq-crisis-stirs-fears-afghanistan-24205961

 

The Sunni Bedouin tribes are rising

   

“It is the tribal rebels who are in control of the situation in Mosul. It is not reasonable to say that a group like ISIS, which has a small number of men and vehicles, could be in control of a large city like Mosul. Therefore, it is clear that this is a tribal revolution, but the government is trying to force us all to wear the robe of the terrorists and ISIS,” Ali Hatim Al-Suleiman told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Suleiman is emir of the Dulaim tribe, which with over 3 million members is one of the largest Arab tribes in Iraq. Its members are predominately located in the western province of Anbar, the scene of fighting between ISIS militants supported by some Sunni tribes and government forces since December last year. He affirmed that a number of Arab Sunni tribes, including his own, are fighting against the Baghdad government."  Al Sharq al Awsat (The Middle East)

---------------------- 

  Download Iraqi Tribal Study - Final

This document was released to the public some time back. 

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/06/article55333359

pl

Semi-Breaking, but Good News: Benghazi Edition

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

BBC news is reporting that the US has captured Ahmed Abu Khattala - the ring leader of the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya. He was captured two days ago by US Special Operations Forces and the announcement was made earlier today. The conspiracy theories have, of course, already begun - so strap on your tin foil hats, its going to be a long news cycle!

* Adam L. Silverman, PhD is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Iraq Diary - 17 June 2014

"Iraq's Shi'ite rulers defied Western calls on Tuesday to reach out to Sunnis to defuse the uprising in the north of the country, declaring a boycott of Iraq's main Sunni political bloc and accusing Sunni power Saudi Arabia of promoting “genocide.”
 
Washington has made clear it wants Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to embrace Sunni politicians as a condition of U.S. support to fight a lightning advance by forces from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) toward Baghdad, Reuters reported.

Territory within Syria and Iraq, ISIL’s Planned Islamic State

But the Shi'ite prime minister has moved in the opposite direction, announcing a crackdown on politicians and officers he considers “traitors” and lashing out at neighboring Sunni countries for stoking militancy."  VOA

 ----------------------

- Anyone who thinks that Maliki is going to give up his lifelong effort to "stick it to" Iraq's Sunni Arab population is deluded.  He would rather lose the war and his life than do rhat.

- The map above depicts the supposed extent of the Islamist state that ISIS would create in parts of Syria and Iraq.  I don't know what the source is for this map.  It appeared in the Washington Post today,

-Fighting is ongoing in and around Baquba just north of Baghdad (37 miles).  The situation is unclear.

- Rivals of the ISIS coalition now hold the border crossing between Syria and Iraq at Al Qaim.  This is on the Euphrates River.  Al Qaim area includes road junctions of considerable importance with good roads extending NW into Syria, North to Mosul and SE to Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar Province west of Baghdad.  IMO the ISIS coalition must secure control of the Al Qaim area,  pl 

 http://www.voanews.com/content/obama-tells-congress-us-deploying-up-to-275-troops-to-iraq-/1938343.html

“Can General Linder’s Special Operations Forces Stop the Next Terrorist Threat?” - TTG

Eliza Griswold wrote this story in the 16 June issue of The New York Times Magazine. She is a poet, reporter and author, who has done serious field research across Africa, Asia and the Middle East. She does seem to understand the difference between special operations forces and the Special Forces. In an interview about her article, Griswold was asked if there was anything about seeing U.S. Special Operations forces on the ground that surprised her. She responded:

-------------------------------------------

Well, their degree of ingenuity was fun to watch. They built picnic tables and Adirondack chairs, and magazine racks in latrines, in order to enhance their forward positions. What did impress me deeply, though, was the level of expertise that some have on local subgroups of subgroups, commands of history, language capabilities.

And our Hollywood image of them is of door-kickers. These are the guys who do the Bin Laden raid, knock down doors, come in the night and unilaterally do what they are doing to seize people. That’s how Hollywood has sold them to us. That is a major distortion. What’s going on in Africa has been going on since World War II. It’s really what the Green Berets, in particular, were built for, and that is training indigenous militaries — either helping “freedom fighters” rise up against undemocratic governments or training the indigenous forces of what the U.S. deems “legitimate governments.” I had one operator say to me, “We are teachers before we are door-kickers.” (NYTimes Blog)

-------------------------------------------

Brigadier General James B. Linder is the current commander of Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA). He obviously knows the difference between the operators and the Green Berets. He was both. He refers to all his troops as Special Operations Forces which is technically correct and, probably more importantly, politically correct in today’s DOD. We Green Berets have always been treated like red headed step children. Griswold tells this story of Linder’s time in the Philippines were she first met him.

-------------------------------------------

In 2005 and 2006, Linder served as the commander of the Joint Special Operations Task Force - Philippines. His job was to root out the militant group Abu Sayyaf from the islands in the nation’s south. Linder, then a colonel, set up operations on an Abu Sayyaf-controlled island called Jolo. There was no how-to manual; he fought the enemy however he saw fit. Linder thrived in this jungle environment. He employed the methods he learned and taught at Fort Bragg. The emphasis, as it would later be in Africa, was on building relationships with local people. “This isn’t something that we learned in Afghanistan and Iraq,” he said. “That’s S.O.F. 101.”

Iraq Diary - 16 June, 2014

-  A casual inspection of the roads depicted in Google Earth reveals the centrality of the town of Tel 'Afar to the probable logistical and operatonal plans of the people running the Rebel Forces offensive in Iraq.  The rebels captured a lot of Iraqi Army equipment at verious places in the north of the cuontry; tanks (probably Russian made), artillery, armored personnel carriers, trucks and the ammunition to go with it.  Such equipment is largely useless to a jihadi militia such as ISIS, but it is VERY useful to the former Iraqi Army officers and men who are the real fighters and planners among the rebel forces.  The rebel forces now occupy Ramadi and Fallujahin in Anbar Province  on the western avenue of approach into the Baghdad zone.  From the rebel point of view it is desirable to move some of the captured equipment to Anbar Province where it will give weight to a rebel push towards Baghdad in conjunction with a rebel push south from the Samarra area.  To get to Anbar from the Mosul region one must first go west and then south either within Iraq or eastern Syria.  In either case the roads pass through Tel 'Afar.  For that reason the rebels needed to capture that city.

- The Noncombatant Evacuation Operation (NEO) now begun by the US should be accelerated and intensified.  I am informed that there are at least 25,000 US citizens (official and non-official) in Iraq.  Most ofthem are in the Baghdad area but many ore in the Basra area and some must be in areas dominated by the rebels.  Time is a precious commodity.  If the rebels are re-positioning themselves for further large scale action in the Baghdad area, then the time it takes to do that is a commodity more precious than can be imagined.  Troops and air assets from the fleet should be landed in the Baghdad area and down along the roads to Kuwait for the purpose of organizing and securing the evacuation itself.  The roads to the south are open at this point.  A mass overland evacuation should be organized ASAP.  So far as I know, Muthanna airfield and Baghdad International airfields are unobstructed.  Fixed wing air, both military and charter should be used to remove people from approaching danger.  A final stage helicopter evacuation would probably be needed.  Helicopters from the fleet could be used if re-fueling points are established in advance (now).  Rubber fuel bladders guarded by marines would suffice.  The US Government will cling to any possible hope of saving the situation politically.  They will cling to that until the last possible moment.  Let us not gamble on their hopes.

 - Incredibly, the fools and knaves who have been consistently wrong abut Iraq are still heard in the US media;  Paul Wolfowitz, Kenneth Pollack and the like are still wrong but they are still given a megaphone in media such as "Meet the Press."  What are we to think of that?  pl

http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-syrian-regime-working-iraqi-government-bomb-jihadi-strongholds-1601726

 

 

 

NEO Starts In Baghdad - By Walrus

The New York Times is reporting the begining of a noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO) from the Baghdad embassy, as Col. Lang recommended some days ago.

 

---------------------

 

"The American Embassy in Baghdad plans to temporarily evacuate a substantial number of its personnel this week and to increase security at the embassy in the face of a militant advance that rapidly swept from the north toward the capital, the State Department announced on Sunday.

The embassy, a beige fortress on the banks of the Tigris River within the heavily-secured Green Zone, where Iraqi government buildings are also located, has the largest staff of any United States Embassy.

The exact number of people being evacuated was not clear Sunday. The embassy would remain open, according to a statement from the department’s spokeswoman, Jen Psaki,and many of its approximately 5,500 staff members would stay in Baghdad. 

Many staff members who are leaving — the statement called it “relocating” — will be flown to Amman, Jordan, where they will continue their work at the embassy there, the statement said. Others will be shifted from Baghdad to consulates here in Erbil, in the northern Kurdish region, and in Basra, in the south, which are not now under threat by the militants."  NY Timea

-------------------------

Approximately 5,500 staff, possibly with some dependents. I would say that is about 20 B747 loads by way of comparison. This going to need to be done very carefully to avoid turning into a rout.

However I think there may be another issue. What about all the Iraqi staff, members of the Maliki Government and their families? Are we silly enough to leave behind card indexes, or perhaps a USB key with lists of our helpers

As I said years ago, the only thing for sure out of the Iraq and Afghan wars will be a chain of themed Iraqi  and of course Afghan restaurants ( Maliki's place? Goats 'R us? Karzai's?).  Walrus

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/embassy.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1

 

Syrian forces clear Alawi homeland of rebels, bomb ISIS armor

 

"Government forces flushed opposition fighters from their last strongholds in northwestern Syria near the Turkish frontier Sunday, seizing the Armenian town of Kasab and restoring government control over a nearby border crossing, activists and state media said.

The developments came as regime airstrikes pounded bases in eastern Syria belonging to the Al-Qaeda splinter group ISIS in coordination with the Baghdad government, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The military’s advances fully reversed the gains rebels had made during their three-month campaign in Latakia province, the rugged coastal region that is the ancestral heartland of President Bashar Assad."  Daily Star

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Syrian forces have largely finished "cleaning up" the previous insurgent penetration into the Alawi heartland along the Syrian coast.

At the same time the Syrian Air Force is making airstrikes against Raqqa in eastern Syria.  They are doing this in support of the Iraqi government in its fight against Rebel Forces and because the rebel coalition is bringing armored equipment captured in Iraq back into Syria.  pl 

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jun-16/260284-syrian-regime-forces-retake-kasab-pound-isis-bases.ashx#ixzz34kZiE0QK 
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)  

 

Related articles

Syrian government pushes into border town in Assad coastal heartland

"Even With U.S. Guns, Syria's Rebels Still Might Lose" - Ackerman

ISIS + Former Iraqi military people + Sunni Bedouin tribes = Rebel Army in Iraq

"“Sykes-Picot is dead,” Walid Jumblatt roared at me last night – and he may well be right. The Lebanese Druze leader – who fought in a 15-year civil war that redrew the map of Lebanon – believes that the new battles for Sunni Muslim jihadi control of northern and eastern Syria and western Iraq have finally destroyed the post-World War Anglo-French conspiracy, hatched by Mark Sykes and François Picot, which divided up the old Ottoman Middle East into Arab statelets controlled by the West."  The Independent

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The media accepts the simplistc idea that ISIS, an AQ affiliate, is the sole actor in this campaign on the anti-Shia side.  In fact, this is a coalition largely balanced between ISIS, former Iraq Army fighters and officers (that is why they have moved as though Guderian or Rommel was in charge and can fly helicopters) as well as Sunni bedouin tribesmen under their own sheikhs.

The Rebel Army's advance to the south has followed the classic pattern of modern maneuver warfare in "hauling ass, bypassing the non-essential, and letting the following infantry mop up."  Thus the advance to and seizure of Mosul was immediately followed by a quick advance to Tikrit and then to further south.  IMO ISIS is not capable of organizing this kind of operation.  They are more suited to head chopping and beard measuring in occupied towns.  

Among the things being missed and misunderstood in the US media is the presence of Rebel Army forces in strength in Anbar Province.  The Rebel army occupied Falluja and Ramadi months ago and the Iraqi government failed in its attempts to dislodge them.  There is a Line of Supply that runs from Anbar up the Euphrates Valley to Syria and the ISIS dominated area there.  From this flanking position in Anbar the rebel Army is placed to intervene on the flank of a government counter-offensive to the north or to participate in a concentric attack on the capital. 

Is War Good For The Economy? - By Walrus.

 

Is war good for the economy? According to Tyler Cowan writing in the New York Times on Friday, the lack of war may be hurting economic growth.

“The world just hasn’t had that much warfare lately, at least not by historical standards. Some of the recent headlines about Iraq or South Sudan make our world sound like a very bloody place, but today’s casualties pale in light of the tens of millions of people killed in the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. Even the Vietnam War had many more deaths than any recent war involving an affluent country.

Counterintuitive though it may sound, the greater peacefulness of the world may make the attainment of higher rates of economic growth less urgent and thus less likely. This view does not claim that fighting wars improves economies, as of course the actual conflict brings death and destruction. The claim is also distinct from the Keynesian argument that preparing for war lifts government spending and puts people to work. Rather, the very possibility of war focuses the attention of governments on getting some basic decisions right — whether investing in science or simply liberalizing the economy. Such focus ends up improving a nation’s longer-run prospects.

It may seem repugnant to find a positive side to war in this regard, but a look at American history suggests we cannot dismiss the idea so easily. Fundamental innovations such as nuclear power, the computer and the modern aircraft were all pushed along by an American government eager to defeat the Axis powers or, later, to win the Cold War. The Internet was initially designed to help this country withstand a nuclear exchange, and Silicon Valley had its origins with military contracting, not today’s entrepreneurial social media start-ups. The Soviet launch of the Sputnik satellite spurred American interest in science and technology, to the benefit of later economic growth." NY Times

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Of course Tyler really means other peoples wars. For Americans by and large, war is something that happens overseas. European cities are destroyed or funny looking brown people die in their thousands. As far as the American economy is concerned, war is good for business says Tyler because there is nothing like the threat of imminent death to stimulate our creative juices.

We can sit comfortably at home and devise new and more lethal means for destroying the current “other”.This presupposes of course that ones country wins the war and has any prospects at all. How long has Britain taken to recover from WWII? France? Germany? Russia? The only economic victor of WWII was the United States for whom the costs of war, in terms of destroyed cities, poisoned countryside and shell shocked population was almost zero.

In addition according to Tyler “ war focuses the attention of governments on getting some basic decisions right — whether investing in science or simply liberalizing the economy. Such focus ends up improving a nation’s longer-run prospects.” I see no evidence for that whatsoever, quite the reverse. War is an excuse not to fix the health, education and welfare systems. War is simply another distraction, like Gay Marriage and Abortion law reform from what a real government agenda should be the provision of a decent standard of living for all its citizens.

To put that another way, if what Tyler said is true and considering the number and cost of Americas wars, then American standards of living should be much higher than their developed yet peaceful peers. 

Why are these people allowed to write this rubbish? 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/upshot/the-lack-of-major-wars-may-be-hurting-economic-growth.html  

 

"NO END OF A LESSON -- UNLEARNED" - Polk

 

               America appears once again to be on the brink of a war.   This time the war is likely to be in Syria and/or in Iraq.  If we jump into one or both of these wars, they will join, by my count since our independence, about 200 significant military operations (not all of which were legally "wars") as well as countless "proactive" interventions, regime-change undertakings, covert action schemes and search-and-destroy missions.  In addition the United States has  provided weapons, training and funding for a variety of non-American military and quasi-military forces throughout the world.  Within recent months we have added five new African countries.    History and contemporary events show that we Americans are a warring people.  

               So we should ask:  what have we learned about ourselves, our adversaries and the process in which we have engaged? 

               The short answer appears to be "very little." 

               As both a historian and a former policy planner for the American government, I will very briefly here (as I have mentioned in a previous essay, I am in the final stages of a book to be called A Warring People, on these issues), illustrate what I mean by "very little."              

               I begin with us, the American people.  There is overwhelming historical evidence that war is popular with us.  Politicians from our earliest days as a republic, indeed even before when we were British colonies, could nearly always count on gaining popularity by demonstrating our valor.  Few successful politicians were pacifists.

 

"The Bush Invasion of 2003: Sabotaging Democracy

By Richard Sale, author of “Clinton’s Secret Wars” 

The stated aim of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was to promote an American style democracy in Iraq, and this meant creating a free market economy and building of a society based on the rule of law, according to then President George W. Bush and his advisors.

Using the “war on terror” as a premise, U.S. companies made millions attempting to build courts, ministries political parties, police, yet the funding necessary to promote a democracy in Iraq was meager, inadequate and ill-funded. According to Middle East experts like former Ambassadors David Mack and Ned Walker, and former president of the Middle East Institute, Phil Stoddard, the Bush administration disdained nation-building from the start. It thought it could dislodge the old system without having thought through what it would take to put a new system in place.

In fact, American attempts to create a workable democracy in Iraq were nothing but a hollow pretense, and the U.S. failure was chiefly due to America not understanding the structure of political power in Iraq. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had run the country with the help and support of the secular Sunni Moslems in Iraq who made up 50% of the population. The Bush design was to rebuild Iraq, a foreign country, by decapitating the group who had run it for decades and instead giving new power to rival tribes and religious sects, mainly the Shia Islamics, many of whom were allied to Iran.

Whitney Bruner, a former CIA official who had been the CIA Chief of Station in Baghdad for three years, told Truthout that an Iranian spy by the name of Ahmed Chalabi had for years tried to lure the United States into a low-intensity war against Iraq to defeat the Iraqi ruling group, the Baathists, who were seen by the Bush Administration as Arab Nazis. “The aim of Chalabi and the neocons was to destroy secular Sunnis in Iraq,” Bruner said. “Chalabi was an Iranian spy, smoothing the way for Iran,” Bruner said, a verdict confirmed by former senior CIA officials, some with active security clearances.

Start the NEO now!

The probability of fighting extending into the west and north sides of Baghdad is high.  This could reach the US embassy.  IMO a Noncombatant Evacuation Operation  (NEO) should start ASAP.  pl

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NY Times maps of the Iraq war.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/the-iraq-isis-conflict-in-maps-photos-and-video.html?smid=tw-nytimes&_r=3

The Douris and the Naqshbandi army

The Iraq crisis becomes more and more interesting.  Today we are learning that ISIS has made some sort of temporary common cause with former Iraqi Army (sadddam period) people to include a large number of men who are members of the "Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order." The naqshbandiya is the largest Sufi order in the Islamic World .  Izzat Ibrahim, the redhead who was Saddam's VP is a member and is reputedly recognized at least temporarily by ISIS as something like field coordinator for the campaign.  Izzat's nephew is an Iraqi Republican guard general who commanded an armored division and a mechanised infantry division in the war with Iran as well as holding the post of chief of military intelligence during that war.  His name is Sabr Abd al-Aziz Al-Douri.

Contrary to public delusion in the USA, the former Iraqi Army had many capable and well trained officers. The speed and effective direction of this offensive seems to me to show the participation of such officers as Sabr- Abd al-Aziz al-Douri.

If that is the case, then Maliki's army is in a real "world of hurt."  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izzat_Ibrahim_al-Douri

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saber_Abdel_Aziz_al-Douri

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_of_the_Men_of_the_Naqshbandi_Order 

Start planning a NEO now!

I will expand this later, but the situation in Iraq depends on the performance of the Iraqi Army just north of Baghadad.  The ISIS holds territory west of that line in Anbar.  Look for a concentric attack.  pl 

HARPER: CORDESMAN FLAGS NEW RUSSIAN DOCTRINE

According to Voice of Russia and other news organizations, on May 23, 42 Arab military and national security leaders participated in an extraordinary day-long briefing by top Russian ministers and generals as part of the third annual Moscow International Security Conference.  The single message presented in great detail by Russian and Belarus leaders was that the United States and NATO have been pursuing a strategy of regime change, targeted against nations of the Middle East, North Africa, Central Europe and parts of Asia, employing a new mode of warfare which they referred to as “color revolutions.”

 The Russian and Belarus officials presented detailed power-point graphs and maps showing that, over the past decade, the United States, aided by some NATO allies, have attempted to overthrow governments in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.  Even in cases where the “color revolutions” succeeded—like Libya—the consequences were widespread chaos, massive refugee crises, and the spread of terrorism. 

The keynote address was delivered by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

 Other speakers spent the next hours providing details, case studies and assessments of the new warfare.  Among the other speakers were Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolay Bordirzha, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Bogdanov, and Belarus Minister of Defense Yury Zhadobin.

 

"Iraq crisis: Militants seize Tikrit after taking Mosul" BBC

"The insurgents moved quickly south, entering the town of Baiji late on Tuesday.

There were heavy clashes reported in Tikrit, with dozens of insurgents attacking security forces near the headquarters of the Salaheddin provincial government in the city centre.

One report said that Governor Ahmad Abdallah had been captured, but this has not been confirmed.

One eyewitness told the BBC that gunmen had entered the city from four different directions and a police station had been set on fire."  BBC

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This is not good. 

If the ISIS forces have already moved as far south as Baiji and Tikrit then there does not seem to be a coherent government defense standing in their way. 

As Lord Slim wrote "first reports are always exagerated."  Let us hope that this is true in this case.

Muqtada al-Sadr is offering to put whatever force he can muster into this fight "in defense of Christian and Muslim shrines."  Remarkable.  Maliki had better think seriously about accepting the offer, otherwise he may end by being yet another Shia "eaten alive" by Sunni jihadis. 

Would Iran intervene?  Possibly.  pl   

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27800319

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jun-11/259713-sadr-calls-for-new-force-to-defend-iraq-religious-sites.ashx#axzz34LX8l9Vp

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Eric Cantor and the 7th District of Virginia (first published in 2011)

  

"I published the post below in 2011.  It seems to have been prescient.  I wrote that the existing 7th District was a bad fit for Cantor. Whoever gerrymandered the district into its present shape missed the fact that all those yeoman type Virginians living along the corridor NW from Ashland to Warrenton to Page County would inevitably start to "smell a rat" in terms of having Cantor as their rep in Washington. All you had to do to learn the truth was to "hang out" in local places like Clark Brothers, "BBQ Country" across the road and all down along the road toward Richmond. Cantor lost because he was perceived to be "not from here."" pl

*******************

"Do people in Eric Cantor's district really want him as their congressman?  It seems like a mis-match.  Cantor is a very smooth Richmond lawyer type.  As the saying goes, "butter wouldn't melt in his mouth."  He is always well spoken and elequent, well dressed and is well heeled.

The district is not like that.  It stretches from the northern and western exurbs of Richmond far to the northwest through farm country, up through the Piedmont and over the Blue Ridge to include Page County in the Luray arm of the Shenandoah Valley.  If I am not mistaken, Clark Brothers is in Cantor's district.  The district is 80% white.  Incomes are modest.  The population is mainly people whose ancestors have lived there for a long time.  Typically, they live in small, well kept houses sited for a view of the countryside.  The houses average around $130,000 in price.  This is the heartland of the country of Jefferson's Virginia yeomen.

How does Eric Cantor fit into this?  Is this story altogether about a Richmond machine politician holding office because the voters can't accept the idea of voting for a Democrat?  Perhaps it is.

Cantor is now engaged in an attempt to unseat John Boehner from his place as Speaker of the House of Representatives.  He is doing this by a maximum display of obstructionism in the process of reaching an agreement on revenues and spending.  This is an agreement sorely needed to keep the federal government from going 'belly up."  Cantor evidently believes that if Boehner and Obama are blocked from reaching an agreement, then the 'tea party" wing of the House Republicans will propel him into the Speaker's chair in 2012.

Is that what the people of the Seventh District want in their representative?  We Virginians have a hard earned reputation for moderation, consideration for others and common sense.  We do not elect extremists or people like Pat Robertson's candidates to major public office.  Is the game that Cantor is playing compatible with that tradition? Is not the greater good the principle that should be followed in this crisis? 

I suppose that the game is rigged in the Virginia Republican Party so that Cantor is assured of the nomination for this "Safe Seat."

In my opinion, an independent should seek to be elected to this seat.  A well to do conservative farmer or a businessman from one of the towns, someone with solid Virginia credentials, U.VA, Virginia Tech, William and Mary, millitary service in his or her background, someone like that could take the seat.

Cantor should be sent home to practise law. " pl 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Cantor

http://dailycaller.com/2011/07/09/does-eric-cantor-have-a-conflict-of-interest-in-debt-ceiling-debate/

This and that on - 10 June 2014

Afghan loss of income - Yes the poor Afghans are terrified that their completely artificial and unsustainable level of US aid induced prosperity and development will be lost.  And, then there is the grotesquely over-developed size and equipage of the Afghan armed forces.  The expense of keeping them up greatly exceeds the GDP of the country.  Since we do not seem to want these forces as imperial mercenaries, their future existence is unlikely.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/afghans-worry-as-us-spending-boom-comes-to-an-end/2014/06/08/ec9645a0-e995-11e3-9f5c-9075d5508f0a_story.html?wprss=rss_world

Mosul - Yes, the Sunni rebels have seized control of Mosul.  This sounds like the crack of doom for Maliki.  The country is going to break up.  pl

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27778112

Liigation coming - Sterling has cancelled the sale.  Good.  This should be entertaining.  pl

http://www.today.com/news/donald-sterling-attorney-nba-band-hypocrites-out-sell-clippers-2D79782083

Likud propaganda - David Albright moved several years ago toward the Likud/USG position on Iranian nuclear weapons intentions.  Somebody ought to take a serious look at the funding of his foundation.  pl

http://truth-out.org/news/item/24169-leading-alarmist-on-iran-ignored-what-he-knew-was-true

The B-1 strike - People die from friendly fire.  They always have and always will.  I was always very concerned about being bombed by friendlies whose help I had requested.  The electronic gadgetry now in use does not really alleviate that.  Widgets malfunction and tiny errors result in things like this.  pl

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/06/10/nato-troops-killed-afghanistan/10269175/

Oligarchic poverty - Alas, poor Hillary.  Sidwell friends and Stanford were a stretch for the Clintons.  They had been living in free government housing in Arkansas and Washington for a long time.  These residences came with free food, utilities, transportation, servants, guards, communications, etc.  The pay was negligeable.  Look it up.  when Hillary's crie de coeur was voiced on Morning Joe, Mika B spoke up to speak movingly of her family's poverty when her father was National Security Adviser to Carter.  Yes, it must have been hard to work her way through Williams College.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jun/9/hillary-clinton-dead-broke-poverty-drove-bill-and-/

 

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Bacevich gives Kagan a history lesson - Margaret Steinfels (Peggy)

Some of you may have heard about, and even read, Robert Kagan's essay in the New Republic: "Superpowers Don't Get to Retire: What Our Tired Country Still Owes the World" (May 26, 2014). It is a perfect example of potted history from the neo-con perspective; an amazing account of the genuis of U.S. foreign policy from 1945 until 2008. His plea: the U.S. must continue to save the world from itself. Leaving out the missteps of the period doesn't lend credibility to his case. But now those lacunae have been filled in.

Andrew Bacevich has very helpfully and pungently filled in the blanks at Commonweal: "The Duplicity of the Ideologues: U.S. Policy and Robert Kagan's Fictive Narrative."

Bacevich: "That Robert Kagan, a bona fide Washington insider, currently housed at the Brookings Institution, possesses very considerable talents is doubtless the case. A well-regarded historian, he is also a skilled polemicist and an ideologue. Here he combines all three callings to fashion a historical narrative that advances two claims. The first enshrines the entire period since 1945—until Obama sounded retreat anyway—as a kind of golden age when freedom, democracy, and liberal values flourished as never before. The second attributes this golden age almost entirely to enlightened American leadership. Policymakers in Washington, he writes, manifested a “sense of global responsibility that equated American interests with the interests of many others around the world.”

"Neither one of these claims stands up to even casual scrutiny."

Kagan: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117859/allure-normalcy-what-america-still-owes-world

Bacevich: https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/duplicity-ideologues

Perhaps McAuliffe could become a Republican ...

 

"Puckett, a senator since 1998, did not respond to calls seeking comment. Other Republicans denied that Puckett was offered the jobs in exchange for his resignation.

In a statement, McAuliffe (D) acknowledged that Puckett’s resignation had created “uncertainty” for his plan to expand the federal-state health program for the poor to 400,000 uninsured Virginians. But he contended that he still had a majority of the Senate on his side."  Washpost

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""Good ole Phil!"  We don't much like Democrats here in the 38th District, but Phil... Hell, he's one of us.  Never could figure out how he could be a Democrat.  His daughter, now she's a right nice girl, makes a great juvenile judge   Now, you know that bein' in the state senate is not a full time job.  You can't live on that.   Now Phil will go back to the tobacco board where he can make enough money to get a good state pension and his girl, she'll get a state judgeship right here in Pulaski or somewhere else in the Mountain Kingdom.  But, the best is that McAuliffe is screwed.  We're sure as hell gonna elect a Republican to fill Phil's seat.  The General Assembly will pass a budget without Obamacare and then McAuliffe can veto it and shut down the commonwealth government if he wants to...  Heh.  Heh.  I suppose we'll have to do something about country peoples health care someday."  Southwest Virginia Mountaineer

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This is a typically Virginia political game.  The pols do not generally like to show their hands but as I predicted, they did not like being subjected to his baloney.  People play rough here and it is a particularly Southern kind of game.  People like Chuck Todd and Larry Sabado think this is a Middle Atlantic state?  they should get out more.  I live in the 8th US Congressional District, the bluest place in the Commonwealth and even here rules of the game that apply in places like Pennsylvania are just meaningless.  There will be no electoral price paid for this, none at all.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-democratic-senator-to-resign-possibly-dooming-push-to-expand-medicaid/2014/06/08/901edf8e-ef54-11e3-914c-1fbd0614e2d4_story.html

Soldiers of Honor

 

"His sentiments are reflected by the Israeli novelist and playwright AB Yehoshua, who gets on the stage to read a comment piece he had written the day before to mark the event. "The great danger to Israeli society," Yehoshua explains, "is the danger of weariness and repression. We no longer have the energy and patience to hear about another act of injustice."

A man appears holding a handwritten sign that condemns Breaking the Silence as "traitors". Some of those attending try to usher him away while others try to engage him in conversation. A journalist asks Shaul if the man is "pro-army". "I'm pro-army," Shaul answers immediately. "I'm not a pacifist, although some of our members have become pacifists. I'm not anti-army, I am anti-occupation."" 

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At one point in this article the author opines that all military occupations of a defeated country result in brutalization of the occupiers and abuse of the occupied,

That is not really true.  The conduct of British and US occupation authorites and troops in Austria, Germany and Japan was not like that.  There were instances of violence and theft against the occupied (and the reverse) but these were few and were dealt with severely by the occupying powers.  The US command in Germany did not hesitate to court-martial offenders in its ranks.  As a result these occupations were bloodless and the Austrians, Germans and Japanese accepted what had to be an unpleasant experience coming after a horribly lost war.

In Germany where I lived during the occupation, the US Army went to a lot of trouble ensuring that people did not starve, that the schools were open and that economic activity was resurrected.  There was an inital period just after the war in which a policy of deprivation was in place in Washongton, but Lucius Clay got that changed and the situation improved rapidly.  As a result little children like me could walk the streets of cities like Bremen and Frankfurt am Main in 1947 and 1948 without there being any fear for us.  I got lost once at eight years old in Frankfurt.  I went to a German cop who was directing traffic.  The polizei put me in a car and took me home.  Many Americans married German women.  Some never left. 

The Israeli occupation of the West Bank is nothing like that.  It is a brutal, savagely racial thing run by adolescents commanded by  officers scarcely older than their "men."

The Israeli soldiers who have found the courage to speak of this are "bound for glory" when the day comes that their country accepts the awfulness of its actions.  pl       

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/08/israel-soldiers-speak-out-brutality-palestine-occupation

http://www.studymode.com/essays/The-Sexual-Behavior-Of-American-Gis-154838.html

http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~roehner/ocj.pdf

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Time for a US reality check on Syria policy

" The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement called on the United States on Friday to admit that President Bashar al-Assad has won the war in Syria and to accept Syrian government terms for a political settlement to the crisis.

If the United States wants to be part of the solution to the war in Syria, it will first have to stop supporting the rebels and agree to engage in dialogue with Assad, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said in a videotaped address to a funeral ceremony in Beirut.

“Any political solution has to start and end with Assad,” he said, speaking after Assad claimed a landslide win in the election this week."  washpost

 

“American Spartan” The Saga (so far) of Jim Gant - TTG

“Beyond the Wild Wood comes the Wide World," said the Rat. "And that's something that doesn't matter, either to you or me. I've never been there, and I'm never going, nor you either, if you've got any sense at all. Don't ever refer to it again, please.”   (The Wind in the Willows)

Unlike Kenneth Grahame’s Ratty, some men cannot help but venture beyond the wild wood and into the wile world. Jim Gant is one of those men. I’m sure most of us remember Major Jim Gant from his essay, "One Tribe at a Time." That was the height of his military career. A few years later, Major Gant was yanked out of Afghanistan, ignominiously reprimanded, reduced to Captain and hounded out of the Army. His story is now the subject of a biography. I have yet to read this story, but Colonel Lang pointed me to a review written by Bing West that certainly peaked my interest and sparked memories of a friend and mentor.

—————————————————————

Welcome to “American Spartan,” the “Catch-22” of the Afghanistan war, a mixture of romanticism, fantasy and hard-core dedication. Gant is a real-life character. The author, Ann Scott Tyson, a former Washington Post reporter, is his wife. She has woven together four tales: an over-the-top adventure, a delusional military strategy, a love story and a failure of organizational leadership.

First, the sheer adventure. Gant is a mountain man, circa 1840. He is Jeremiah Johnson, living in the wrong century. Despite his heavy drinking, volcanic mood swings and numerous wounds, he survived more than 40 months of combat. In 2003 and again in 2011, he and a dozen Special Forces soldiers lived in a mountain village in eastern Afghanistan, adjacent to the Pakistan border. When I visited that village, both the elders and the soldiers from the 1st Battalion of the 32nd Infantry told tales about Gant’s exploits. 

 

Obama declares the end of history and the childlike nature of American soldiers.

" The days of empire and spheres of influence are over.  Bigger nations must not be allowed to bully the small, or impose their will at the barrel of a gun or with masked men taking over buildings.  And the stroke of a pen can never legitimize the theft of a neighbor’s land.  So we will not accept Russia’s occupation of Crimea or its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty."  Obama

 *******************

 “I’m never surprised by controversies that are whipped up in Washington, that’s par for the course,” Mr. Obama said Thursday during a Brussels press conference.  Obama

 

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I think it was Francis Fukuyama, the neocon historian who last tried to announce the end of history as humanity has experienced it.  This did not end well for Fukuyama.  History made a "house call" for him and bit him on the ass.

Now we have Obama sternly announcing that " The days of empire and spheres of influence are over."  Say what?  Which planet does he live on?  Obama increasingly seems to be a very sheltered man who was educated on big fat scholarships at the "best" colleges and universities where he acquired the academically popular notion that humans and their societies are evolving toward a higher state in which there  will be a world community governed by rules and "norms" that will protect the weak against the strong.  This idea is the product of the musings of various European social scientists in the 19th Century. Just about all of them were members of some relatively weak group who desired to change the shape of history so that they would be safe from the strong.  The coterie of Obamaites who the president has surrounded himself with all inhabit this "bubble" of belief.

Unfortunately  for them and the rest of us outside the bubble the world has not changed.  Putin treats this bleating with contempt,  Assad is well on his way to emasculating the jihadis in Syria.  Maliki grinds the faces of the Sunni Arabs with impunity.  Al-Sissi will embark next week on his maximal effort to "destroy" the MB and other jihadi fanatics in Egypt.  None of these people give a damn abut what Obama and his bubbleocracy think because they can tell reality from silliness.  They know the difference between chicken salad and chicken shit.

In the world of the realists, it is important to have large numbers of hard, armed, people who will devote themselve to watching over the weak while they sleep lest the wolves come to feast.   In pursuit of the goal of having such guardians. it has been necessary to create bodies of soldiers who will accept the task and will give themselves up for the task.  Such people are often not ideal candidates for membership in Parent Teacher's Associations or the League of Women Voters.  Women they may be, but if so, not likely to fit in well in today's effete American society.

In the case of Bergdahl fils, the president/commander in chief referred to him several time at Brussels as "someone's kid,"  and as a "child."

Well, I am here to tell you Mr. President that if you keep that up, you will have no hard people to watch over weak people.  pl

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/remarks-president-obama-25th-anniversary-freedom-day

Bergdahl's rank

A lot of people are confused as to how someone like Bergdahl was promoted to sergeant (E-5) .  He was generally thought by his comrades to be a loser as a soldier.   He was thought by men in his platoon (44 men) and company (150 0dd men) to be self-obssessed,  infantile, etc.  As opposed to statements by enlisted men, statements or reports by commissiond officers about him cannot be relied on for verisimilitude.  Officers are creatures wedded to career and are not inclined to write bad things about their men lest it reflect on them as well.

It is the policy of the US armed forces to promote people held as prisoners of war at the time their contemporaries are promoted without other considerations.  This is a good policy and intended to avoid penalizing career people who otherwise would fall so far behind their contemporaries that they would have no choice but to leave the armed forces.  pl  

"A slap in the face" from the US

"Other Israeli leaders also used unusually harsh language to condemn Washington’s willingness to work with the government Mr. Abbas swore in on Monday. “American naïveté has broken all records,” said Gilad Erdan, a minister from Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party. The leader of the nationalist Jewish Home faction, Naftali Bennett, said the American decision “sends a message that terrorism pays.” Even Nachman Shai, a lawmaker with the left-leaning Labor Party, called the step “a slap in the face from the Americans.”

And Ron Dermer, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, rebuked both the new Palestinian government and his host country’s embrace of it, posting on Facebook that “with suits in the front office and terrorists in the back office, it should not be business as usual.”"  NY Times

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Yup, "business as usual," that is the order of the day from the Obama Administration.

“A slap in the face from the Americans,”  Yup, that's what it was.

(Irony alert for all you engineers out there)  IMO the time has come for the Israelis to cut the Americans loose.  They should give the goyim and self-hating Jews as well, a hearty YOYO (you're on your own) and tell them that henceforth "you gringos will be responsible for your own security as a nation, if you can call it that.  And furthermore, there will be no more grants from Israel's treasury and business for the purpose of 'shoring up' the American economy."

So there!   pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/04/world/middleeast/israel-troubled-by-us-plan-to-work-with-palestinian-unity-government.html?_r=0

Is Sgt. Bergdahl a deserter?

 

 "... U.S. troops said they were aware of the circumstances of Bergdahl’s disappearance — that he left the base of his own volition — and with that awareness, many grew angry.

“The unit completely changed its operational posture because of something that was selfish, not because a solider was captured in combat,” said one U.S. soldier formerly based in eastern Afghanistan who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the search. “There were military assets required . . . but the problem came of his own accord.”"  Washpost

The search in Paktika was eventually called off, after U.S. officials acknowledged that Bergdahl had been taken to Pakistan. "  Washpost

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Do I think the PoW exchange was proper and justified?  I do, but there are unanswered questions about the responsibility of this soldier for his own capture and the extent of his culpability under the Uniform Code of Militsry Justice for the crime of desertion to the enemy.

This photograph evidently shows Bergdahl shortly after he became a prisoner of war.  He doesn't look particularly abused or even  unhappy.  

Bergdahl seems to have become disillusioned with the forever wars of the Bush and Obama Administrations.  He was an infantryman.  He had prior experience of war in Iraq, but on the particular night in question in Afghanistan he apparently left his unit's position and walked away into the darkness.

Desertion occurs in every war as well in peacetime.  This happens in every army.  It happens in the US Army and the US Marine Corps.  It happens in the British Army, the French Army, etc. 

Sgt. Bergdahl is a sergeant because it is US Army policy to promote American soldiers who are held as PoWs as though they were servng with the rest of their age/grade contempories.  

It was necessary to obtain the release of this US soldier.  It is now necessary to decide if he should be punished for desertion in the presence of the enemy.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/mixed-reaction-to-bergdahls-recovery-by-service-members-who-consider-him-a-deserter/2014/06/01/3713e3ce-e9c5-11e3-b98c-72cef4a00499_story.html

News Roundup - 1 June 2014

The picture?  I am thinking of a a new terrier (not necessarily a Norwich) to replace Ashby, the 16 year old who came to the end of the road recently.  He got to a "place" where he couldn't walk.  We think we will go to a breeder seeking a 4 to 6 year old bitch that they don't want any longer.  Shelter dog?  It would depend on the animal.  It is on my mind.  PL

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"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday warned against any international rush to recognize a Palestinian government due to be announced under a unity pact between the Fatah and Hamas Islamist groups.

Israel and the West classify Hamas as a terrorist organization and have no official dealings with the movement, which advocates the destruction of the Jewish state."  VOA

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Israel and its US ally have consistently refused to recognize Hamas as the elected government of Gaza.  Hamas has offered Israel a hudna, a religiously sanctioned truce for ten years, but that has not been good enough for Israel to relinquish enough of its iron control of US policy to make that possible.  IMO Natanyahu does not want a just peace with the Palestinians.  What he wants is a peace without honor, a peace that permanently reduces the Palestinian people to a sub-human category and to the function of a helot class useful to a settler state economy.  Natanyahu has now begun to threaten the annexation of the West Bank as punishment for the world and the Palestinians if we do not all bend the knee to him.  pl 

http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-netanyahu-urges-world-not-to-recognize-palestinian-unity-government/1926966.html

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""He may be elected to be president of Syria, but he won’t control Syria," General Martin Dempsey, the top U.S. military officer, said in a recent interview with Reuters and the Pentagon's news service." Globalpost