« Crocker tells CFR that US policy in Syria is a mistake | Main | Clapper's Edict »

04 May 2014

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

GulfCoastPirate

I can only speak for myself but no I do not believe it. The questions, it seems to me, become how long can Putin stay out of there if the unrest continues and does Obama have enough sense to stay out altogether no matter what Putin has to do?

David Habakkuk

Colonel Lang,

“What a joke! Do people really believe this?”

They believe what they want to believe.

The Director of (British) Naval Intelligence in the Second World War, John Godfrey, defined the weaknesses of German intelligence as ‘wishfulness’ and ‘yesmanship.’ At the risk of glossing his meaning to adjust to my own views, I would define ‘wishfulness’ as a propensity to defend one’s existing structures of interpretation, either by ignoring information that might challenge them, or by interpreting it in ways that did the least damage to them that could be managed.

As to ‘yesmanship’, it meant adjusting the intelligence so as to keep your superiors – and in particular their political masters – happy.

It was the ‘wishfulness’ and ‘yesmanship’ of German intelligence that enabled Godfrey and his fellows to blind their German counterparts, first to the fact that the first Allied invasion of ‘Fortress Europa’ would occur in the obvious place – Sicily – and then to the fact that D-Day would come in Normany, rather than the Pas de Calais.

A sense of self-evidently superior – indeed one might say overwhelming – power has blinded people to the fundamental fact that concern for objective truth, on the whole, gives one better prospects of ensuring relatively tolerable outcomes to situations often fraught with a potential for catastrophe. People take for granted that a propensity for ‘wishfulness’ and ‘yesmanship’ can be indulged, without serious risks to their countries and themselves.

turcopolier

David Habakkuk

“What a joke! Do people really believe this?” A rhetorical flourish on my part or perhaps even a "conceit." It has been stimulating to remember the details of the invasion of Kuwait. pl

Margaret Steinfels

C.J. Chivers, the NYTimes reporter of the story cited, has entered the suspicion that these are not the "little green men" from Crimea. If they are "Ukrainians," protesting their own government, can Putin and Obama let the "Ukrainians" duke it out among themselves? I think Chivers is a Russian speaker. He wrote a book about General Kalishnikov and his rifle.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

There are factions in the US government and NGOs that have spent money to flame ethnic and religious hatreds in order to incite chaos and have Russia invade Ukraine in order to split it away from the EU and destabilize it. This is similar to what happen in Syria, Libya, and Serbia previously. Apparently the White House has just realized that they have a Civil War on its hands in Europe with NATO and Russian troops eyeball to eyeball with locked and loaded weapons including hydrogen bombs.

http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-shows-paradigm-shift-ukraine

The next few days will tell if the White House with DOD prodding can gain control back from the neo-conservatives. R2Pers, and Oligarchs and reestablish the sovereignty of the American State. If not, these are truly the End Days.

turcopolier

peggy

Oh, yeah. An LA based reporter called me once to say that his editor had chewed him out because a neocon had called him to state that I was a FARA registered agent of Syria. The man was very angry. He, the editor and the neocon were all Jewish and I suppose the idea that I had hoodwinked them was irritating. I told him the neocon had lied but he raved on and I told him never to bother me again. I have refused to speak to him since. The same thing happened with a fellow who wrote for Vanity Fair. He had interviewed me because Bearden asked me to talk to him. In his VF piece he also portrayed me as a Syrian agent. I called him a liar in print. He later wanted to re-interview me saying that he had learned the truth. I hung up on him. Poor me. pl

walrus

David Habakkuk,

Thank you for your observation on the German Intelligence services. I recall from the official British history that the intelligence services went to a great deal of trouble after the war to debrief German intelligence officers because they couldn't initially believe the scope of their success in so many fields. The answer at least with the Abwehr is exactly as you described.

Telling the Emperor that he is naked is a career limiting action.

Norbert M Salamon

The German paper reported that there is need for a second Geneva Conference re Ukraine

Will

Wasn't Canaris of the civilian intelligence (ABWEHR) working at cross purposes w/ Hitler and tried to negotiate an end to the War. What was the Deutsche Military Intelligence and who was in charge of that?

FB Ali

What seems to be happening is that the neocon-allied CIA is trying to do a repeat of Syria, ie, present Obama with a crossed 'red line' and thus force him to act in spite of his reluctance.

The Red Line in Ukraine that Obama has (foolishly) drawn is a Russian invasion of that country. Having failed to find convincing evidence of Russian troops inside Ukraine, the CIA has now pushed the Kiev regime into attacking Russian supporters in the East in order to lure Russia into intervening with troops. Obama will then be compelled, they hope, to impose sectoral sanctions, which would start the downward spiral of confrontation between East and West.

Putin appears to understand this game, and seems to be trying hard to avoid getting sucked in. However, it will be very difficult for him to remain uninvolved if there are more massacres of pro-Russian Ukrainians.

We are entering dangerous territory. Further deterioration of prospects now depends on the Ukrainian soldiers deployed in the East, and their willingness or otherwise to attack their countrymen. It is not clear how much influence Chancellor Merkel has on the Kiev regime. There is no doubt that she (and important German interests) are reluctant to get into serious sanctions against Russia, with all the consequences they entail. Putin also seems to be trying to get her to intervene to stop the downward slide. Let us hope she finally takes a stand.

Dismayed

"... if the White House with DOD prodding can gain control back from the neo-conservatives..."

Pres. Obama would have to start firing neo's to regain control of foreign policy. Alas, he doesn't even remotely have the spine. We will, imo, continue to see him reacting to events engineered by his theoretical 'subordinates'.

kao_hsien_chih

Abwehr was the military intelligence. SD was the Nazi (SS) intelligence of World War II Germany. I don't know what the name of the "civilian" intelligence agency of World War 2 Germany was, or if indeed there was one separate from the SD.

kao_hsien_chih

Apparently, SD was merged into the German Security Bureau (RSHA) as its Dept 6 in 1938 (according to Wikipedia) and basically became the civilian intelligence arm of Nazi Germany. This seems to follow the same pattern of politicization of the civilian intelligence arm in many countries that was noted earlier.

Anna-Marina

In the "War and Peace" the old Kutuzov muses about the role of "small" people in making the history. When democracy becomes quaint, the incompetent and unaccountable grab the power and have their day by starting implementation of their delusional and grandiose plans. In the old times, an engineer would stand underneath a new bridge during first test by heavy traffic. The modern-day deciders and their sycophants bear no responsibility; the current system allows the criminals from Wolfowitz to Rubin to Baybee to prosper as if there is no punishment by shame in a human society. The rot is becoming dangerous not for some distant places only but it is getting closer to home.

Anna-Marina

Perhaps it was Merkel's reluctance to obey the US lunatics with regard to the Ukrainian crisis that has irritated Obama and his handlers so much. Merkel does not want, understandably, to drag Germany in a position of an active supporter of neonazis (whatever ethnicity). Germany had more than enough flack re Holocaust.
The recent event in Odessa - when people were burnt alive, raped, and murdered by the supporters of Yasenyuk - was a replica of the WWII murderous acts. There is no way Nudelman and both Kagans will be ever cleared from this association.

FB Ali

Der Spiegel is reporting that Putin called Merkel in connection with the impending visit of the Swiss President (who also chairs the OSCE) to Moscow on Wednesday. Apparently he is trying to arrange a round table conference of the parties (a rather belated attempt to implement the Geneva conference mandate).

Putin supports this effort and seeks to obtain Merkel's agreement to push this. It remains to be seen if the Kiev regime (and its US neocon/CIA backers) will also agree to this de-escalation.

FB Ali

A link for the report of CIA involvement:

http://news.yahoo.com/cia-fbi-agents-advising-ukraine-government-report-101508429.html

walrus

I wonder if the danger for America in this situation could be a break with Germany, leading to a "re-emboldened" Germany with an independent foreign policy?

How far can Merkel be pushed before she has to choose between Putin and Obama? I would have thought Germany's interests lie in the East with Russia.

As far as Obama is concerned, I believe the Ukraine is a personal contest with Putin. Hence I don't believe the Obama Administration is going to settle for a negotiated solution a la Syria without massive political pressure on him at home and abroad because such a rational solution would be perceived by Obama as a loss, especially if Americas role in starting this mess was foreshadowed to be proven and exposed.

Obama wants Putins blood.

Fred

Col,

"The NY times article linked below is illustrative of the number of former Russian and Soviet soldiers are to be found in the population of eastern Ukraine. Many of them are combat men from Afghanistan. "

As you pointed out in a few pieces on the Iraqi army, an army is a national institution. As members of the Soviet army wouldn't the same national spirit be present in any of its veterans, especially combat veterans, and be directed toward the 'old country', in this case the Russian Federation, since that what the center of the USSR? Why would they hold special allegiance to a coup government in Kiev? Especially the native Russian speakers or recent emigres, regardless of 'citizenship' created after the breakup of the USSR?

confusedponderer

There was no civilian intelligence in Nazi Germany.

The Abwehr was part of the Wehrmacht.

The SD was part of the SS.

There initially was intense rivalry between the two, and the SD won the infighting, since, as a result of the conspiracies against Hitler, the Abwehr fell out of favour. The SD overtook their role and incorporated Abwehr departments.

They were a driving force behind persecutions and atrocities in Germany and occupied Europe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicherheitsdienst

confusedponderer

Is that normal DC backstabbing or is that original neocon style?

confusedponderer

"The next few days will tell if the White House with DOD prodding can gain control back from the neo-conservatives. R2Pers, and Oligarchs and reestablish the sovereignty of the American State. If not, these are truly the End Days."

That is basically it. Obama is not in control of US foreign policy. There are other DC players besides him and he doesn't control them.

He doesn't control the neocon/Nuland crew, he doesn't control Kiev, he doesn't control NED and their surrogates.

Vis a vis Syria he doesn't control the Turks or the R2Pers or his state department and so forth.

Vis a vis Iran he needed to have the NSC run the diplomacy around the state department to get it to work, well, until Ukraine and Syria pretty much scuttled that project.

That tells a lot about him and the disingeniousness of his 'team of rivals' idea and the accountability to elected government in DC.

David Habakkuk

Will,

The Abwehr was one of the centres of the conspiracy against Hitler -- a pivotal figure being Canaris's second in command, Hans Oster.

He was hanged at Flossenburg concentration camp in 1943. His comrade Fabian von Schlabrendorff, who survived the war, described him as 'a man such as God meant men to be, lucid and serene in mind, imperturbable in danger.'

turcopolier

CP

"There was no civilian intelligence in Nazi Germany." yes. Nazi Germany was an exception to the general phenomenon of a moiety in intelligence agencies, one being military and the other civilian. pl

LeaNder

I am not sure, I understand what you mean, Pat. Thanks anyway for your informed take on matters. What I like about these comments are their simplicity.

AND strictly considering the following decades, I probably would have been much less up in arms would Kuwait happen now. Peculiar shift in war reports, is all I remember from that war.

Are you suggesting people actually believed the babies thrown out of the incubators? I am afraid that started my interest in war propaganda.

Although, you may well refer to the larger context.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

September 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30      
Blog powered by Typepad