Syrian Roundup - 17 April 2014

 

"He doesn't need to know..." - The Jordanian armed forces have long loved their Hashemite soldier-kings.  Jordan is no longer a country attached to an army as it once was but the "Jeish Arabi"  still marches to music composed by the first Abdullah, Hussein, Peake, Glubb, Cook,  et al.  It used to be a Jordanian Army joke that if King Hussein had told them all that the only solution for the Israeli problem would be for them to convert to Judaism, then after mumbling  among themselves for a while they would have said, "well, if you think so, boss."  At the same time they have always believed that the king should be protected from the harsher realities and that it was not necessary for the throne to be infomed of everything that had to be done.  Yesterday, RJAF struck three Syrian rebel vehicles that were attempting to enter Jordan.  Two explanations are possible:  1- A mistake.  This is tempting since Jordan is allowing the training of "moderate" rebels on Jordanian soil.   "Oops!"  2 - The Jordanian military do not favor the Syrian rebellion and the training and are convinced that the "moderates" are not moderate and are a certain danger to Jordan in the future.  "Oops!" NY Time et al

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TOW - The enhanced TOW anti-tank missile is old technology, but good technology.  With a range of just over 4,000 meters it is wire guided and even I can hit a tank body with it.  We sold and/or gave a lot of these to Saudi Arabia and Turkey as well as Iran during the Iran-Contra Affair.  IMO these countries are the source of these missiles, but it is possible that they were directly transferred by the CIA under a presidential finding.  These missiles have probably been in the logistical pipeline for quite a while and their provision may not be indicative of the latest Saudi policy.  Will they be a "game changer" at this stage of the war?  I doubt it unless they are present in great numbers.  Syrian and Hizbullah infantry and artillery will have to be more active to compensate for this new rebel capability.  What else is likely to appear in rebel hands?  MANPADS?  I would bet on it.  The US has been hesitant to allow this to happen from US stocks because of the ease with which these can be transferred to jihadi groups everywhere, but there are many other sources of MANPADS in the world.  Washpost

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 Homs - "With their spirits beaten down, hundreds of rebels have accepted government offers to hand over their weapons, activists and Syrian state media said, weakening the resolve of some of those who remain in the city. There has been a slow and steady exodus since mass evacuations were conducted in February under the auspices of the United Nations.

At least 300 fighters have left in the past month, according to three activists in the city, and one put the number at nearer 1,000. Virtually no civilians remain, they said. Fighters turn themselves in at a school, where they wait to be cleared, and hundreds remain in detention, the activists said.

The opposition All4Syria news site said 500 had surrendered their arms since last month, and it predicted that rebel-held areas of the city would fall within the week. The Syrian Arab News Agency said 100 had surrendered in the past 10 days.

“As a result of the scarcity of cigarettes and food, and the long duration of the siege, the regime has seduced them,” said Abu Bilal, an opposition activist in the Old City." Washington Post

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pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/world/middleeast/jordanian-planes-strike-3-trucks-trying-to-enter-from-syria.html?_r=0

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/jordanian-warplanes-destroy-vehicles-trying-to-cross-from-syria/2014/04/16/1602fc0a-c5a4-11e3-9f37-7ce307c56815_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syrian-opposition-fighters-obtain-us-made-tow-anti-tank-missiles/2014/04/16/62d1a6f6-c4e8-11e3-b574-f8748871856a_story.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGM-71_TOW

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-army-steps-up-homs-offensive-as-rebels-look-for-exit/2014/04/16/c95f1a40-54b0-417c-b912-105bc7fc99f6_story.html

 

Comments

[ffintii]

This looks like Bandar's phoneline to Jordan has gone dead.

[Valissa]

The plot thickens...

Jordan's ambassador to Libya is kidnapped in Tripoli http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/15/world/meast/libya-ambassador-kidnapped/

[Alba Etie]

Col Lang
The Jordanian air force bombing jihadis on the way to fight in Syria ? More evidence of the Realist pushing back on the jacobins et al ?
Now Al Jezeera is covering a live news conference with Lavrov, Kerry , & Her Ladyship Ashton saying a peace deal has been brokered that would send in the OSCE into Eastern Ukraine rather then Leader Putin's tanks . Could this be further evidence that the Realist are pushing back on the jacobins and their world dominion agenda ? I still have that optimistic hypothesis that President Obama is however belatedly doing his level best to push back the embedded jacobins in our National Government Structure . And thankfully even VP Biden seems to have for the moment shut up ,, We shall see.

[Fred]

According to that last article liked to it looks like there was more than one "Oops":

"First, an apparently accidental explosion wiped out a number of rebel leaders."

[Babak Makkinejad]

Col. Lang:

The Kings of Jordan would have been well advised to exercise their duty in caring for the Al Haram Al Sharif and assert their custodial rights and obligations in that regard.

To wit: the current King could have endeavored to be present and lead a delegation of Arab Muslims on every single religious occasion comprehended by the Muslim religious calendar.

This would have fortified his religious credentials, discomfited Israelis, and helped position him as a defender of the Faith.

A road not taken....

[Peter C]

How long can the propellant and warhead in a TOW remain in shooting shape? Are these up to date TOW's?

Good way to clear out the old stuff from storage.

[turcopolier]

babak

the Hashemites have long been deprived of their function as keepers of the two shrines. The Saudis took that from them on the battlefield. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

Not for the Al Haram Al Sharif in Al Quds Al Arabi - they are still Custodians - as far as I know.

[turcopolier]

Babak No. The king of Jordan has continued to pay the expenses of the Jerusalem waqf to the present day. pl

[Alba Etie]

Fred
Pay back for Camp Chapman ?

[Fred]

I doubt it, that was complete CIA incompetence.

[William R. Cumming]

Is my understanding correct that Jordan still houses many refugees from Iraq and other areas of MENA? Is there an accurate census of Jordan as to its citizens and residents?

[Alba Etie]

Fred
Yes but as I recollect there were Jordanians killed in that suicide blast too .But who knows ..

[Highlander]

Actually Fred, I think the root cause of that little massacre was political correctness.

The on going feminization of the CIA requires that more middle aged women from the analytical side, be given real operational jobs out in the hot spots. Even if they really don't have a clue.

I mean if the girls are going to take over the executive floor, they got to have some cojones type of experience on their company resume. If it gets 10 or 12 people blown to hell from time to time. So what? As future commander in chief Clinton would say. Does it really matter now?

All of this is part and parcel of the systematic degradation of the Legions, which will eventually take America to its own August 9, 378 AD moment.

Probably a little sooner, than I would personally like to think about.

[Fred]

Highlander,

I think you are correct. Just reading the latest puff piece on Chelsea in Fast Company made me want to throw up. Then the poor Marine Corps victim of the war on women who was set up to fail because they didn't force her to get into proper shape prior to trying to go through OCS. Just in time to launch a war against the Russian Federation for no damn reason.