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02 March 2014

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505thPIR

Another consideration at present: Afghanistan logistical transit across Russian territory. Fighting season just around the corner folks. Great time for a squeeze play and some Pakistani blowback one might think. Not the 6th army at Stalingrad, but a large force a long ways from a warm living room.

There is no practical NATO military option that isn't nuclear tipped and that will only happen if a NATO member is forcefully attacked. The partition is a fait accompli and will be left to Putin's tender mercies. The "invasion" now happening without a shot fired signals how one-sided that is. That is just how it is going to roll. The madness of any direct military confrontation with Russia should be buried in a hole and then the shovel buried along with it.

The people screaming Munich, Sudetenland, etc. ought to go find the russian equivilent of Mein Kampf and the numerous rallies run by mean ol Putin exorting the virtues of living space for the Slavic peoples et al. Where is the political body of work and accrued sediment over the past decade or so to support these comparisons beyond their convenient use MSM news shows?

President Obama's "reset" is now well, fully re-set. This is going to smart mightily for the neoconistas. Things will get Cold-War nasty politically for quite some time until a neo-detente sets in. Neo-detente being largely how to make bucks within the new status quo. Let the posturing begin on both sides of the Atlantic. Syria is going to heat-up some and the new European reality will surely be cause celeb and great campaign fodder domestically in the US. Waving the tattered Ukrainian flag will be the standard form of aerobic exercise for those who imagine a return to yesteryear.

The wild-card here? Acts of ethnic cleansing in Western Ukraine or the ethnic fracture zones that don't get massively cleaned-up by whomever is in authority there. A failure to do so could lead to the abyss.

Lastly, the MSM has been not much better than a 6th grader hollering "fight" in the school hallway. Irresponsible and simplistic. Luckily their blathering will be muted for a bit while the Hollywood crew makes love to itself for a few hrs. this evening.

eakens

All this talk of nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise, is quite odd to me given that Chernobyl sits "up the street".

turcopolier

eakens

That was an accident. pl

turcopolier

bandolero
I don't care about any of this. I am solely concerned with US interests. pl

jl

Can Russian Black Sea fleet that supplies/supports Syria still safely get to their other naval base in Syria?

jonst

I completely agree....but I don't understand why this is so. Why we are dominated by fools...

bth

Germany and Poland seem amazingly quiet. It is as if they want to pretend this isn't happening. Also would like to know if there is a crackdown on dissidents in Russia itself going on p

Babak Makkinejad

Putin and very many Russians, I should think, consider Ukraine to be "Homeland" or part thereof.

The Twisted Genius

jl,

Of Course. They are in no danger of losing their base at Sevastopol. They sail the Black Sea through the Bosporus and into the Mediterranean to Syria. Russia, as a Black Sea nation, is guaranteed passage of the strait under the Montreux Convention. However, given the real possibility of international skulduggery, I doubt the Russians fully rely on the Montreux Convention alone.

Babak Makkinejad

You need to dismantle NATO - that is the only option that would reassure Russia.

Lee A. Arnold

A long-time reader of the Colonel but I comment infrequently. I think this one is quite a puzzle. My guess is that Putin may move to protect a little more of Russian-speaking territory, but not go all the way through the Ukraine. He enjoys rubbing the U.S. nose in it, but he is unlikely to want to get bogged-down in an intractable situation. He wants to come up smelling like roses on the world stage

The US mainstream media has entered a new level of hypocrisy in the post-Soviet era. ""Putin Pounces... Deep Concern... Clear Violation..." --this is all the kind of stuff that Moscow said about invading Iraq. All the "Obama weakness" nonsense is mostly politicians jockeying for the next election. None of them has a clue what to do, and thank god some of them aren't in power.

Charles I

cripes, very good point. Taliban just did a big widespread co=ordinated attack last week as part of the er, negotiations. Canada just finished flying about 270 of 350 plus containers o' kit deemed essential or too costly/dangerous to abandon from being stranded in Pakistan & politics, to be loaded onto freighters in Dubai.

This as only taken 2 plus years. Imagine the poor fool being told to organize your pullout when he phones Russia.

Charles I

I believe I recall a report about a Russian freighter being molested/inspected that turned back, think it was serious ground to air kit. Be another matter entirely to go at the Russian Navy.

Tyler

You can see the Cathedral media at work, with all the talk of "Putin does" or "Putin invades" or "Russia's ruler".

I guess the Left finally met a KGB agent it didn't like. Huh.

The beaver

@ Jersey

A documentary on the secret world of gold produced by the CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/episodes/the-secret-world-of-gold
and this is the You Tube version since the original is available only in Canada:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1KFQeR7EAA

"Some claim that much of the gold held by the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and Fort Knox is gone — that for every 100 ounces of gold traded, there exists only one ounce of real, physical gold. So, where is the gold — and who really owns it?"

David Habakkuk

Lee A. Arnold

What is the evidence that Putin 'enoys rubbing the U.S. nose in it'?

Amir

I do not know the accuracy of PressTV reporting on ABC's broadcasts but what does this mean: "Speaking on ABC’s This Week television program, Kerry issued a starker warning to Moscow, stressing that “all options are on the table” to deal with the crisis."

If true, does this fake Vietnam-War-Protestor think he is talking to Teheran?

P.S.: I found the VOA reference: http://www.voanews.com/content/us-all-options-on-table-in-ukraine/1862543.html

kao_hsien_chih

I tend to agree with that view. Eastern Ukraine, as I understand it, may be more inclined towards Russia, but it is still mostly Ukrainian rather than Russian in their makeup. Galicia may be Russophobic to death, but most of the Western Ukraine is merely distrustful of the Russians--and may not be thrilled with what transpires in Kiev. If those in Kiev recognize the perilous state they placed themselves in and starts backing down, things may actually calm down and revert to status quo, more or less, except, obviously with Crimea being de facto independent and the rest of Ukraine (and their Western backers) being suitably penalized for their excesses. However, what is not clear to me is whether the present "government" in Kiev will be able to rein in the radicals among their midst. If they provoke a direct armed confrontation with the Russians, things can get real nasty, I figure.

Ulenspiegel

bth wrote: "Germany and Poland seem amazingly quiet."

Correct statement.

bth wrote: "It is as if they want to pretend this isn't happening."

That is wrong. You have only to read the newspaper headlines.

E.g.:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/krim-krise-merkel-russland-verstoesst-gegen-das-voelkerrecht-12828888.html

David Habakkuk

All,

According to RT, the ‘self-proclaimed’ government in Kiev has appointed billionaires as governors in the large industrial regions in the east of the country:

‘The newly-appointed Dnepropetrovsk governor is Igor Kolomoysky, Ukraine’s third-wealthiest man, with an estimated fortune of $2.4 billion. He co-owns the informal commercial group Privat, which includes Ukraine’s largest bank Privatbank, which Kolomoysky heads, as well as assets in the oil, ferroalloys and food industries, agriculture and transport.

‘A former ally of Yulia Tymoshenko, Kolomoysky reportedly had a falling out with her and refused to finance her election campaign in 2010, which the ex-prime minister subsequently lost to Yanukovich. Kolomoysky was reported to be a principal sponsor of the UDAR party, which is one of the three fueling the street campaign to oust Yanukovich. Kolomoysky has a dual Ukrainian-Israeli citizenship and controls his business empire from Switzerland.

‘The new governor of Donetsk Region is Sergey Taruta, who is estimated to worth around $2 billion, putting him among the top-10 wealthiest people in Ukraine. He heads ISD, one of the biggest mining and smelting companies in the world, and also own Donetsk-based Metallurg Football Club.
‘Not a stranger to politics, he used to sponsor Viktor Yushchenko, who came to power in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution of 2004. Among his personal habits is a reputed love for luxurious jewelry and ostentatious gold statues, reports RT’s Peter Oliver.’

(See http://rt.com/news/ukraine-oligarch-rule-governors-512/ )

William R. Cumming

Seems some consensus forming less than 10K Russian ground forces all-types deployed in the Crimea?

And distribution of Russian passports continues in the Crimea?

Ingolf

FWIW:

"Putin agrees to Ukraine 'fact-finding' mission after talk with Merkel."

"Meanwhile on Sunday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged G8 members to rethink stripping Russia of its membership.

"The format of the G8 is actually the only one in which we in the West can speak directly with Russia," Steinmeier told German public broadcaster ARD. "Should we really give up this unique format?'"

Both quotes from here:

http://www.dw.de/putin-agrees-to-ukraine-fact-finding-mission-after-talk-with-merkel/a-17468591

georgeg

David, I am in agreement with you. We do not give Putin enough credit for being a master strategist.....
This will be over in a matter of days, unless we decide to "rub his nose".....

Thomas

All,

The following quotes from an article by Robert Parry reflect what I have felt about this crisis.

"President Barack Obama has been trying, mostly in secret, to craft a new foreign policy that relies heavily on cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin to tamp down confrontations in hotspots such as Iran and Syria. But Obama’s timidity about publicly explaining this strategy has left it open to attack from powerful elements of Official Washington, including well-placed neocons and people in his own administration.

The gravest threat to this Obama-Putin collaboration has now emerged in Ukraine, where a coalition of U.S. neocon operatives and neocon holdovers within the State Department fanned the flames of unrest in Ukraine, contributing to the violent overthrow of democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovych and now to a military intervention by Russian troops in the Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine that historically was part of Russia.

President Barack Obama discusses the crisis in Ukraine for 90 minutes on March 1, 2014, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (White House photo/Pete Souza)
President Barack Obama discusses the crisis in Ukraine for 90 minutes on March 1, 2014, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (White House photo/Pete Souza)

Though I’m told the Ukraine crisis caught Obama and Putin by surprise, the neocon determination to drive a wedge between the two leaders has been apparent for months, especially after Putin brokered a deal to head off U.S. military strikes against Syria last summer and helped get Iran to negotiate concessions on its nuclear program, both moves upsetting the neocons who had favored heightened confrontations.

Putin also is reported to have verbally dressed down Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan over what Putin considered their provocative actions regarding the Syrian civil war. So, by disrupting neocon plans and offending Netanyahu and Bandar, the Russian president found himself squarely in the crosshairs of some very powerful people."

The proposal by Germany for mediation today would allow a stand down followed by revelation of what transpired. With the strongest words by Obama being sanctions and kicking out of the G-8 and silence from the military, they could be working behind the scenes to burn the Neo-cons, just like Vlad burned Bandar.

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/03/02/what-neocons-want-from-ukraine-crisis/

Booby

To Amir:

I just read a Kerry statement that the Ukraine can & will fight. I'm sure that Kerry & the R2P crowd would be ready to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. It should be interesting to see which shoe Kerry puts in his mouth in Kiev tomorrow.

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