"Ukraine Crisis: Six Reasons Why U.S. Use Of Military Forces Is Unthinkable" Loren Thompson

"Russia has the ability to utterly destroy America. Local conflicts have a way of getting out of control when foreign powers intervene. In any military confrontation between U.S. and Russian forces, there is a danger of escalation not only to conventional combat, but beyond — in other words, to the use of nuclear weapons. That may sound like an improbable scenario, but it’s no more outlandish than an assassination attempt by Serbian nationalists leading to a World War, and yet that actually happened — in the same region. Russia has thousands of nuclear warheads, and the only defense America has against such weapons is retaliation in kind. Think of the possibilities."  Loren Thompson in Forbes

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Let's keep all this in mind, folks.  Stay calm and don't listen to people like McCain.  pl  

http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2014/03/13/ukraine-crisis-six-reasons-why-u-s-use-of-military-forces-is-unthinkable/

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

ALL: Just noting for the record the official US strategic doctrine is MAD [Mutual Assured Destruction]! If Putin were to announce a NO FIRST STRIKE doctrine IMO he would vault even higher in the world standing of current leaders.

[b]

Not that he is wrong, he isn't, but ...

Loren Thompson is the chief public lobbyist for the F-35. The way he will have come to his conclusion here will likely have been something like this:
- a new war would cost lots of money
- when they spend a lot on a war with Russia they would likely buy more Boeing birds (F-18) and surely cancel the F-35 (as the faulty much too expensive plane that it is)
- I need to argue against war to keep the loot coming to my door
- what is the biggest threat I can rise to frighten the public and thereby lower the risk of war
- let's write that down

[William R. Cumming]

Declassified a decade ago see official federal civil defense viewpoint of Soviet Strike on continental USA:

•Nuclear Attack Planning Base - 1990, FEMA, April 1987

Found at:

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dhs/fema/index.html

[John Minnerath]

The drum beats seem to be having an effect.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/14/cnn-poll-most-see-russia-as-a-threat-to-u-s/
Not good.

[Haralambos]

Here is a post from Germany pointing to some of the possible options for Russia.
http://www.dw.de/russia-holds-the-cards-in-crimea/a-17495721
It includes this: '"The US is most exposed when it comes to what we call the NDN, which is the Northern distribution network," Chivvis said. "This is the supply system that was set up to supply our forces in Afghanistan."

'All 38,000 US troops are scheduled to use the NDN, which runs from the Baltic States across Russia and central Asia to Afghanistan. During the war in Afghanistan, about 40 percent of all US military goods were transported via this route, and Washington paid Moscow about $1 billion (720 million euros) annually for use of its roads.'

This brings to mind several posts by Col. Lang regarding the supply lines into Afghanistan early on in that campaign.

[charly]

Russia has a doctrine that they will use tactical nukes when they loose. IMHO a very sensible one if your enemy is so much stronger like what is the case with the USA and Russia

[shepherd]

Has anyone found a good explanation of what we could do to them economically? It would seem to me that that's their vulnerability, not any military confrontation. Its economy is 1/8th the size of the US, only slightly larger than Italy's and smaller than Brazil's.

[nick b]

b,

Interesting, especially in light of what was said by Italian Defense Minister Pinotti this week.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/12/italy-defence-idUSL6N0M93UP20140312

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Reminds me of what platoon sergeant Rowan said during the CBN warfare unit in basic training at Ft. Leonard Wood in 1964 after we had covered the C and B stuff. "What you do when there's a nuclear attack is bend over at the waist, put your head down between your legs and kiss your a** goodbye."

[crf]

Russia is a threat to the US. So if most of the US public thinks this, it is good. Maybe the media is actually doing it's job. That it is a threat is why the US should take keen notice of Russia's interests, and not threaten them for no good reason whatsoever.

The US public ought to begin to question why Obama thinks bringing the world to brink of a nuclear war is good. It is over Crimea. A place America has no strategic interest in. A place that is steeped in Russian blood and war-mythology, a fact which the US refuses to acknowledge. And it is over a referendum. And not just a referendum: but one that's illegal according the Ukrainian constitution! (Or does that require double exclamation points? The stakes are so high!)

I am not an American. I'm not "right wing". Obama has my Prime Minister's approval for his current stance. But I'm never going to forgive Obama or America for taking things even this far. He is certifiably insane. More insane than Khrushchev‎.

What's worse, that the Democrats lose the White House and the Senate because Obama was such a wimpy wimp and didn't stand up to Putin? Or that Obama stands up for a few lines in the UN constitution already not horribly shredded by Clinton or Bush, and thereby still gives his party a 50-50 shot a retaining the White House?

When you think about it that way, it's absolutely no contest which way Obama will take. I suggest we prepare for the great nothingness that will arrive sooner than we think.

[FkDahl]

With ABM in Poland, and perhaps in Ukraine in the future - is DC thinking they can pull off a first strike against USSR sorry Russia?
I don't think that is achievable but if I was Russian I would think that is the plan!
FkDahl

[walrus]

The very title of the article sums up the error in strategic thinking that was responsible for Two world wars: :Six Reasons Why......unthinkable".

Folks, this is a "list" article written as a rational response to apeal to logical, numerate, thinkers. Similar magazine cover teasers: "Forty ways to lose weight fast","Twenty Seven things you didn't know about Miley Cyrus" and the rest.

Unfortunately this issue is not amenable to the point accumulation method of business decision making. Nor is it amenable to the false argument that "trade" considerations trump national sovereignty.

What we are seeing is a naked grab for power as world hegemon by the Washington elite.

To put that in popular terms; Obama = Gollum.

The consequences for Russia if Putin backs down are obvious. Equally so China which has its own problems for example, Tibet. I do not foresee a Russian backdown.

The consequences for the NeoCons are also stark. If this grab for world domination fails, as I hope it will, a prudent American President would be wise to emasculate the armed forces to ensure that such behaviour is in future not an option.

It now appears obvious why so many defence projects have legs. The NSA global intelligence capture via the internet, drones and hypersonic aircraft programs - "find, fix and finish" any opponent to the will of Washington on the globe.

And Washingtons answer to Dostoevskys question? "Liberty will crown the edefice".

[Fred]

crf,

Russia is a threat? So's China. So is Europe for that matter.

The issue is not a referrendum on Crimea. Where have you been these past few months. The US spent $5 billion fostering this latest Ukrainian 'revolution'; and did so less than 6 months after Russia called Obamas bluff over intervention in Syria.

[Fred]

FkDahl,

Polish based ABMs will not shoot down submarine launched ICBMs nor cruise missles.

[different clue]

Are we sure it is the armed forces driving this? Isn't JCS General Dempsey (and perhaps others) trying to slow it down and hold it back within the Constitutional limits of his authority?
Perhaps a prudent American President should focus on emasculating the non-prudent Americans in or near any position of power and authority . . the NeoConservatives, the NeoWilsonians, the AreTooPee-ers, the NeoLiberals etc. ?

[Mark Logan]

All.

Anybody else thinking how wonderful a re-ignition of Russo-phobia would be to the defense budget and how wonderful it would be for AIPAC if the US and Russia could no longer find any common interests?

crf,

Check out Obama's resume. I judge him, despite his status, as likely to be as utterly dependent on experts in the field of foreign policy as any of his generation. As easily manipulated as GW Bush was should not be a surprise. I am of that generation, and I can attest that in the US history and especially the rest of the worlds history was given extremely low priority. His Ivy league education was one-subject focused.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Today’s problem is that Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is in play. Russia’s doctrine dictates use of tactical nuclear weapons if loosing. Russia policy is to have one SSBN at sea at all time. I expect that any Russian vessel that can submerge safely and fire missiles is at sea or is being prepared to sail.

A nuclear first strike is a huge gamble that bets mankind’s survival on Russia not having survivable nuclear ballistic missiles. A conventional war always escalates and at some time in the carnage if available a tactical nuclear weapon will be ignited which will result in a strategic response.

The problem is ideology. President Obama has stated that he wants to negotiate the destruction of all nuclear weapons; a position that clearly shows that he doesn’t know anything about what he is talking about. The Neo-cons believed that the USA could win a nuclear war with USSR outright. They believe this even more so today.

Invading Ukraine is even more crazy than invading Iraq yet from the President on down, they are intent on baiting the Russian bear. It doesn’t matter to them that the destruction of mankind will be the consequence of their mad rush to war with Russia.

[Haralambos]

I saw this up today: http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-intercepted-us-drone-over-crimea-2014-3
I have no idea in regard to the accuracy of this claim.
This is what I can find on Rostec: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostec
I was in 6th grade when the American U-2 piloted by Gary Powers was shot down. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Gary_Powers
I found this bit interesting: 'When the U.S. government learned of Powers' disappearance over the Soviet Union, they issued a cover statement claiming a "weather plane" had strayed off course after its pilot had "difficulties with his oxygen equipment." What CIA officials did not realize was that the plane crashed almost fully intact, and the Soviets recovered its equipment. Powers was interrogated extensively by the KGB for months before he made a confession and a public apology for his part in espionage.[5] The incident set back talks between Khrushchev and Eisenhower. On August 17, 1960, Powers was convicted of espionage against the Soviet Union and was sentenced to a total of ten years, three years in imprisonment followed by seven years of hard labor. He was held in Vladimir Central Prison, 100 miles east of Moscow. The prison contains a small museum with an exhibit on Powers, who allegedly developed a good rapport with Russian prisoners there. Some pieces of the plane and Gary Powers' uniform are on display at the Monino Airbase museum near Moscow.[citation needed]

'On February 10, 1962, Powers was exchanged, along with American student Frederic Pryor, in a well-publicized spy swap at the Glienicke Bridge in Berlin, Germany. The exchange was for Soviet KGB Colonel Vilyam Fisher, known as "Rudolf Abel", who had been caught by the FBI and tried and jailed for espionage.[citation needed]

'In 2010, CIA documents were released indicating that American officials did not believe Powers' account of the incident at the time, because it was contradicted by a classified National Security Agency report. However, the newly-released declassified CIA documents confirm the accuracy of Powers' report. The NSA report remains classified.'[6]

I imagine there er more than several here who more than I do of these events, but I do recall it was frightening times for many of us young folks due to the air-raid drills in school, and the advice on building fallout shelters and having a store of food and water. I would appreciate any thoughts from those who lived through this period.
Aftermath

[Bandolero]

Unthinkable?

German state media ARD reports that forces in Crimea just downed a MQ-5B UAV belonging to US forces stationed in Germany, which invaded Crimean airspace.

http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ukraine1296.html

[William R. Cumming]

Ex-PFC Chuck! I was taught during basic in fall '67 at Ft. Leonard Wood to dig a slit trench and use my poncho to cover me!

A deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Reagan Administration advised civilians to do the same if nuclear attack possible.

[William R. Cumming]

Fred! Agree and US doctrine of launch on warning never contemplated close in shore enemy subs with launch warning 10 minutes or less. But not sure of Russian deployment currently!

[charly]

Retrofitting ABMs to carry nukes is "easy". The fear is not ABMs that shoot down the retaliation but a first strike that is so quick that the enemy can't order a first strike. Poland is so close to Moscow that the flight time is to quick to order a retaliation.

[Norbert M Salamon]

Sorry off topic:
Russia reported on many sites that they have shot down an US drone over Crimea - similar fashion to the famous Iranian success via electronic control measures.

[different clue]

And purge out the "crackpot realists" as well, like Zbigniew Brzezhinski, the notorious Anti-Russianite, who wants to see Russia divided into several helpless easily-colonized "regions". He is arguing for this war as hard as/ harder than anybody.

[crf]

Hmm ... I didn't know if I was being that sarcastically obtuse.