"I am not deposed..." Yanukovich

"In the absence of a clear statement of Russia’s intent, the perception of its strategy has been shaped by rumors, by strident coverage on state news media and by statements of Russian lawmakers vowing solidarity with Ukraine’s ethnic Russians and questioning whether Crimea, which the Soviet Union ceded to Ukraine in 1954, should rightfully be Russia’s. The military exercise, which began in earnest on Thursday, added an ominous element of volatility. Aleksandr Golts, an independent military analyst in Moscow, said the exercise theoretically could disguise a more general mobilization of Russia’s military in case a conflict erupted over Ukraine. “In my view it’s very bad, even if there are no plans to use the military, that maneuvers are being held with the goal of testing the nerves of others,” he said. To critics, especially in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s hand is seen in many of the most disturbing turns in the unfolding situation, including visits there by Russian lawmakers; reports of Russian passports being handed out to Crimea’s citizens, as happened in Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and the mysterious seizure of the Parliament building in Crimea. They see the downward spiraling of events as evidence that Mr. Putin intends to splinter the country and retake Crimea as Russian territory."  NY Times

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To say that this situation is confused would be an understatement.  IMO there is a contest of arguments being made to Putin as to what he should do.  It seems likely that a strong policy regarding the Crimea is advocated by many in Moscow.  The resemblance to the Georgian situation is clear and drift toward intervention is likely. pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26380336

 

Comments

[b]

Yanukovich is indeed not deposed. The parliament did not follow the law (Article 111 of the constitution) that would have allowed for an impeachment process. Instead it simply voted under duress as armed Pravyi Sektor nazi guards surrounded the parliament.

The parliament is also acting against the constitutional court again not following any legal procedures.

It was an illegal coup - pure and simple.

As someone at Carnegie pointed out ALL security positions in the new government are now in the hand of fascists.
http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=54692

"[T]he most questions about the new government's direction will be raised by several key appointments of ultra-nationalist Svoboda (Freedom) and Pravyi Sektor (Right Sector) members to leading roles in the Defense Ministry, National Defense and Security Council, and the Prosecutor General's office."

The riot police, the only power that could act against them, has been dissolved.

Now the Ukraine is led by anti-semite anti-european fascists. Quite a feat Mrs. Nuland achieved there.

[The Twisted Genius]

I think events are moving along quite well for Putin in the Crimea. The Crimean parliament sacked the regional government yesterday and set a referendum vote for late May on the status of their autonomy. The referendum will seek broad autonomy within the framework of remaining part of Ukraine. The broader autonomy includes the ability to make international agreements independent of Kiev. The leader of Crimea’s Russian Unity party, Sergey Aksyonov, was voted in as the new chairman of the Council of Ministers. All this happened after a visit to Simferopol by several Russian MPs. Sounds like full independence in all but name to me.

Russia told Ukraine that it moved forces outside the gates of the bases at Sevastopol in full accordance with existing international treaties regarding the security of those bases. The armed mystery men at the airports are not Russian troops. They're probably some pro-Russia patriotic militia of some sort. Supposedly they were looking for Ukrainian airborne forces. Perhaps this was done at the suggestion of GRU operatives in the area, but this is pure speculation on my part.

In the days and weeks to come, I expect to see more Russian MPs visiting the eastern oblasts to talk about possible autonomy referendums. The EU and the Nuland cabal will be put in a difficult situation. Putin will appear to be on the side of calm and self determination which does not play into the West's narrative. Will they goad their new friends in Kiev into trying to forcibly quash the peaceful "counter revolution" in the east?

[turcopolier]

All

IMO we are looking at creeping annexation of the Crimea ans eventually all of eastern Ukraine. If they can achieve this without force, so much the better from their point of view. If not... What the Russians will do about their gas pipelines that run to Europe through western Ukraine is anyone's guess. pl

[Valissa]

Curiouser and curiouser…

The Saker speculates on … What really happened overnight in Crimea? http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/what-really-happened-overnight-in-crimea.html

[Matthew]

B: Maybe Putin should follow the Assad strategy. The most vicious thing he can do is give Ukrainians an undiluted taste of life under the rule of their new "democrats." See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-28/ukraine-imposes-capital-controls-limits-foreign-currency-withdrawals

And: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/meet-ukrainian-interahamwe.html

[David Habakkuk]

All,

From a report on the ‘Voice of Russia’ site:

‘The well-known hacker group Anonymous posted online the correspondence between Andrei Tarasenko, the deputy head of the Ukrainian nationalist organization “Trizub imeni Stepan Bandera” and Aslan Omer Kyrymly, the Deputy Chairman of Crimea Tatar Mejlis.

‘One of the hackers writes: “It was a hard job, but we have still managed to hack an email of the Maidan activists. Surprisingly, the nationalists have developed links with the Crimean Tatars.”

‘Straight after that, hackers posted a quote from one of the emails:

‘“Everything is going according to the plan. We are ready to proceed with the second part of the play. As agreed earlier last week, my guys together with people from the “Karpatskaya Sech” and UNA-UNSO will arrive wherever is needed and with the necessary weapons. You only need to let us know the addresses of the warehouses in Simferopol, Sevastopol, Kerch, Feodosia and Yalta, and the time of the meeting...Don't worry about the money, everything will be fine, just a little bit later. In the end, you know that if we succeed, you will get a lot more.”’

‘According to the text, the neo-Nazi organization “Trizub imeni Stepan Bandera” along with “Karpatskaya Sech” and UNA-UNSO are ready to fulfill all the dirty work: to kill, burn and banish all the opponents of Maidan from Crimea. Crimean Tatars should “only” provide them with “instruments” ie weapons and store them in the most important cities of the Crimea.’

(See http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_28/Anonimus-activists-manage-to-hack-Maidan-email-8716/ )

Of course, claims about hacked e-mails can be disinformation – as I think the e-mails purporting to show that British private security company Britam Defence might have been involved in ‘false flag’ operations intended to implicate the Syrian authorities in chemical weapons atrocities were. If anyone better qualified than I can hazard a view about the authenticity or lack of it of the e-mails posted by ‘Anonymous’, it might be helpful.

If however the Maidan people are seriously involved with the Crimean Tartars, then certainly I would expect that the Russian authorities will be taking steps with considerable urgency in relation to the Crimea. This could all get seriously bloody.

As to other parts of the South and East, I still think it makes more sense for Moscow to play a waiting game. This is all the more so, as although Yanukovich is of some use in bringing out the questionable nature of the claims to legitimacy of the those currently ruling in Kiev, it seems clear that he is almost universally regarded with contempt and loathing – by Putin among others.

To draw more of the South and East into its orbit, Moscow would need political leaders and forces who can mobilise popular support. It would further need those ruling in Kiev to continue shooting themselves in the foot. The appointments to key security positions, to which ‘b’ referred in his comment, suggests that it may be quite difficult for the E.U. and U.S. to stop them doing this. But even if this is so, for the full impact to be felt will take time.

Likewise, the economic policies of the ‘Maidan’ people seem rather likely to spark disillusionment, again particularly in the South and East. But this also is likely to take time.

On another point, the whole purpose of the Russian military reform has been to get away from the traditional model of a conscript ‘people’s army’, and replace it by a – relatively speaking – small, and largely professional force, with a body of career NCOs at its core. (So Putin has quoted Marshal Zhukov as saying that it was ‘me and the sergeants who command this army.)

If however the suggestion that ‘Banderistas’ are planning to take over Sevastopol is accurate – which it may not be – then I suspect that one might that the contemporary Russian army is all too happy to kill as many of them as they can.

[Charles I]

ahh it waxes nostagic back to the old days of the German gas turbine debates in the 70's/80's. Except we have no turbines to withhold. . .

[fanto]

Colonel, the Russians will just wait for any act of sabotage and they will shut them off. That will teach the EU and Germans something, same for the Ukraine itself, they will freeze if something should happen, so it is in the Ukraine's interest to prevent any big fireballs along the pipelines. that is a laymans guess.

[Medicine Man]

b: It really sounds like Putin is justified in seeking to protect ethnic Russians from the Ukrainian ultranationalists. It would be depressingly par for the course if this uprising was indeed (foolishly) encouraged by Nuland et al as a means of pursuing their hair-brained plans in the region.

[Hank Foresman]

COL Lang, I have been following this very interesting discussion. I came across this today and thought I would share it with the committee as it provides some interesting background material on the Ukraine. http://hnn.us/article/154867

[walrus]

What would be the next "logical" step for the R2P crowd in Washington? I don't think Nuland and Co. will take a creeping counter revolution lying down.

Covert training of western Ukrainian militias by special forces? Covert military aid with C3I, etc.? Didn't the U.S. Government buy 600,000 AK47 30 round mags last year? For whom are these destined?

[David Habakkuk]

All,

The blogger who calls himself ‘the Saker’ has just posted on his blog a ‘Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the events in Ukraine.’

It suggests that:

‘The attempts to replay agreed actions unilaterally every time, the lack of any wish to perceive the real situation as it is, never leads to any good.’

And it goes on to argue that:

‘When NATO starts reviewing the situation in Ukraine, it sends the wrong signal. It even seemed appropriate for the NATO Secretary General to mention that “Ukraine’s membership of NATO is not an urgent priority of the Ukrainian leadership”. Does this mean that membership should be a priority, but not an urgent one? They are attempting to decide for the Ukrainian people again.’

(See http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/statement-by-russian-ministry-of.html )

I have checked, and it appears that the NATO Secretary General – Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is apparently Danish – did actually say what the Russian Foreign Ministry said he did. At this time of all times, he was implying that if the Russians relinquished the Crimea to Ukraine, they were liable to end up with Sevastopol as a NATO base.

Perhaps lobotomy is no longer simply a requirement for promotion in the U.S. Army, as the bitter joke quoted by Colonel Lang suggested – it might seem that the possession of a still functioning brain is a disqualification for advancement in U.S. and E.U. elites, be they military or civilian.

[David Habakkuk]

Matthew,

Precisely the reasons you give is why one could, in normal circumstances, expect the Russians to play a waiting game -- to seek to 'enjoy the benefits of time' as sixteenth-century statesmen would have put it.

I still think that, outside the Crimea, this is likely. But is not not beyond the bounds of possibility that the imbecility of Western political elites may have generated situations which run out of control quite quickly.

[walrus]

Below is the latest statement of the Russian Government and it is all sweet reason but it clearly draws a line in the sand with respect to Ukranian NATO membership. Translation lifted from the Sakers blog. The statement scares the crap out of me because I feel that our descendents, if they aren't incinerated, will be reading this one in the history books. It is not wise to really piss off the Russians. This is another Cuba crisis.

"Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the events in Ukraine.

The agreement on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, which was signed on the 21 February and certified by the German, Polish and French Foreign Ministers, is still not being fulfilled. Militants have still not laid down arms, they have not freed administrative buildings, or announced their intention to “make order” in all the Ukrainian regions. There are threats of physical reprisals, as the President Viktor Yanukovych emphasised in his statement today.

The agreement to jointly investigate acts of violence and the obligation to create a national unity government, have been forgotten. Instead, as Maidan puts it, a “government of champions”, which includes representatives of national extremists, is being created.

The agreements about constitutional reform, which should precede presidential elections according to the Agreement of the 21 February, have been forgotten. We are convinced that only a constitutional framework, ensuring the interests of all responsible political forces and all regions of Ukraine, corresponds to the interests of national peace and stability in the long term.

We appeal to those western partners, who initially supported the opposition and who supported the Agreement of the 21 February, to become fully aware of their responsibility for its implementation. The statements that this document has already played its role are not serious. All the taskslisted and agreed on the 21 February, have not lost their meaning, in fact they have become even more topical to prevent further polarisation of the community as a result of radical actions.

We must stop interference in church affairs, the besmearing of Orthodox temples, memorials in honour of the heroes of the Great Patriotic War, who freed Ukraine from fascism, and other monuments.

We are seriously concerned about the cancellation of the Law on the Foundations of the State Language Policy in violation of Ukraine’s international obligations, which leads to further deprivation of the rights of minorities, restriction of the freedom of mass media, bans on the activities of individual political parties.

We currently note frequent appeals to Russia,by western countries, for cooperation about issues related to the situation in Ukraine. We proposed this long ago, long before this crisis ever entered its hot phase, however, at the time our colleagues were not disposed towards this.

Nevertheless, we are ready to interact, understanding clearly that it must be done honestly, based on the ability not only to agree, but also to fulfil the agreements, which should take into account the interests of all the Ukrainian people, as well as all partners of Ukraine. The implementation of obligations under the Agreement of the 21 February would become an important step along this path.
The attempts to replay agreed actions unilaterally every time, the lack of any wish to perceive the real situation as it is, never leads to anygood. When NATO starts reviewing the situation in Ukraine, it sends the wrong signal. It even seemed appropriate for the NATO Secretary General to mention that “Ukraine’s membership of NATO is not an urgent priority of the Ukrainian leadership”. Does this mean that membership should be a priority, but not an urgent one? They are attempting to decide for the Ukrainian people again.
"

[ked]

How might nostalgia drive national security policy? Ukraine could be a great opportunity to revisit our youth.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/the-hawkish-marriage-of-cold-war-nostalgia-and-threat-inflation/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-hawkish-marriage-of-cold-war-nostalgia-and-threat-inflation

[Anna-Marina]

There are the same neofascist that has infested Israel's illegal settlements. They exhibit exactly the same behavior. Messier Bernard-Henri Lévy suddenly discovered bigotry among some Ukrainian lads.

[Anna-Marina]

Unfortunately, it seems that Putin is preparing to to see (and to help for) a civil war in Ukraine to achieve his far-reaching territorial and political objectives.

[turcopolier]

All

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-putins-ukraine-gambit/2014/02/27/93ca1b26-9fe0-11e3-9ba6-800d1192d08b_story.html?tid=pm_pop

Insanity. A US naval squadron in the Black Sea armed with nuclear weapons? A better recipe for a "Guns of August" scenario could not be devised. Fortunately POTUS is now fully engaged with his Black teenager project and will probably leave this to Hagel and Dempsey. BTW you can see what BHO will do with his spare time after he leaves office. pl

[turcopolier]

David Habakkuk

Dempsey seems to have missed his medical appointment as well. I listen to and watch the pretty young things who appear on the tube from State and USAID and realize that most of them are really just good looking schoolgirls and boys who never have carried the weight of real events. They never needed the surgery. pl

[rjj]

PL's "...schoolgirls and boys who have never carried the weight of real events":

Upscale "cankers of a calm world and a long peace."

[oofda]

As I have noted at other posts, the Crimea is of vital importance to the Russians. It was part of Russia for a couple centuries until Khrushchev 'gave' it to Ukraine for unclear reasons. They are reacting with the mind-set that the Crimea is part of Russia.

One point that has not been given prominence in the US media is the presence of far-right, fascist groups in the anti-government forces, and now in the government. In fact Sen McCain appeared on stage a month or so ago with a far right-wing nationalist leader, Oleh Tyahnybok, the leader of the right wing nationalist party Svoboda. He now stands to gain a ministry position in the new government. His party originally had a swatstika-style logo and he has made anti-semetic remarks in public. After seeing the former Presidentail candidate of one of the two main US political parties and senior national legislator chumming around with a person the likes of Tyahnybok, no wonder the Russians and some Ukrainians have questions about our motives.

Oh, and about 15% of Crimea is made up of Crimean Tatars, a Muslim group. And they are getting cranked up now in the wake of recent events. Wonderful.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mccain-meets-oleh-tyahnybok-in-ukraine-2013-12#ixzz2ueGKTuJT

[Babak Makkinejad]

Is the entire future of the world dependent on the sanity of a single man called Dempsey?

If so you need to discard democracy, which clearly can be corrupted is corrupted, and bring in the Empire, Caesar, and the military Imperators.

The "Senate" is clearly useless, the plebeians are consumed by their "bread-and-circus" of the 21-century and the Tribunes are up for sale.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The conquest of Crimea from the Muslim Turkic tribes by Ivan the Terrible was a seminal emotional event for the Orthodox Rus.

Contending with Russia over Crimea is analogous to fighting with the English on the possession of Cornwall.

NATO wrestled an analogously emotion-charged piece of territory earlier for the Serbs, called Kosovo - and in my opinion - inconclusively.

[Thomas]

Sir,

He said that last night on Fox news and I busted out laughing. It actually changed my pessimistic outlook, for it is appears this is the Swan song for Neocons as the rest of the country gets fed up with the constant warmongering from the same failed ilk.

I do have confidence with the professionals in our government, dealing in back channels, to prevent this from escalating. So Dempsey's missed appointment in your post below I take as good sign.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Thanks again for these invaluable posts. We actually are living through 1914 all over again a century later. The incredible stupidly of baiting the Russian Bear lives on.

Russia stated that one of its nine SSBNs would be at sea at all time from mid-2012.

http://www.janes.com/article/12530/russia-us-ssbn-patrol-figures-revealed

If it wasn’t, it would be now and any other sea worthy vessels. The Borei Class SSBN carries 16 to 20 nuclear missiles.

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/borei-class/

I have no idea of their target list but the top two would seem be the Pentagon and Wall Street. Leaving at least 14 or more cities or military bases disintegrated if the slightest miscalculation is made. It is crazy to start the Cold War again only this time without rational leaders in charge like Eisenhower and JFK who were concerned about the well being of their citizens.