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05 February 2014

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Ten years of credit fueled bubble are coming to an end. The falling Lira has made energy 30% more expensive over the last few weeks. The state is still covering that though. But after the local elections in March the game is over and prices will rise much faster. While the lower Lira helps exporters they also depend on imports of foreign products. The current spat with Bulgaria that hampers fright traffic to Europe makes that even more difficult. Erdogan will soon have high inflation and high unemployment. Not a good position to win elections.

But what "catastrophic event" could happen and for what purpose?

And why is ISIS systematically capturing all border posts between Syria and Turkey? What are their plans for Turkey?

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