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15 February 2014

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Fred

Tyler,

I wonder what the R2P crowd is going to demand we do now.

William R. Cumming

Thanks for this excellent comment!

505thPIR

Tyler, Within a week of the end of the Olympics a whole lot of the dissident leadership is going to be missing. Some will be behind bars and some well, gone forever. "Special Tasks" will have a say. The far right has its neck stuck out waaaaay to far. There will be Marshall law in Kviv and perhaps several other western cities to go along with it.

David Habakkuk

505thPIR,

I think this is probably wrong. It is extremely unclear that Yanukovich has reliable security forces behind him. Also relevant is the fact that he is -- not least because he is corrupt through and through -- extremely unpopular.

A mistake however is to interpret this unpopularity as evidence that there is some kind of cohesive Ukrainian 'people', who are being kept from their European destiny by a wicked tyrant.

On all this, the blog 'The Vineyard of the Saker' is a useful source. Precisely because his identification is very strongly with Russia, the analysis of the weakness of Yanukovich's support by 'the Saker' is telling.

(See http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/a-short-follow-up-to-my-post-about.html )

As to the Russian position, I think that 'the Saker' is also right in thinking that these are problems that Putin needs like a hole in the head.

However, he is also I think right in stressing that the Crimea, and in particular the naval base at Sevastopol, are a neuralgic issue. The prospect of a U.S. naval base there is one which the Russians will go to great lengths to avoid.

505thPIR

David,

Saker is a good read. Today, Yanukovych, safe in the Eastern Ukraine called the situation a Coup d'etat and said he would not sign any of the motions set forth by the Parlimen, notably the trimming of his powers and new elections in May. Further, he says he is the legitimately elected president and will not step down under any circumstances.

The Russians are saying the terms of the most recent "agreement" are not being enacted. The eastern regions of Ukraine are forming militias and rejecting any replacement govt. from Kiev. Partition, hmmm. That would be "sponsored" and messy.

So,the counter to a coup is????? Olympics over soon.

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