Iran, Israel, Afghanistan, the ACA, Natanyahu - Obama Agonistes

- Israel is sending a team over to "help" us with the Iran negotiations.  The servants of Israel in the Congress are trying to torpedo the second phase talks by moving the goal posts so far that they are out of reach for any place kicker.  Maybe the Israeli team is going to advise them.

-  Obamacare moves from weakness to weakness, relentlessly moving along a trajectory of ever increasing unpopularity while the administration hopes for a more or less miraculous shift in public sentiment if they can make the federal website work.

- The Congress is basically flummoxed in its effort to decide what might be national priorities in a budget.  The Republicans appear to be more interested in destroying Obama than in anything else.

- Karzai told the charming Susan Rice to hit the road after raising the ante.  You heard it first here.  Heard what?  We told you that there would not be US troops in Afghanistan after next year.

- The police report on the Lanza creature reveals to the amazement of the NE mommy crowd that he had no specific motive.  He was merely mad.  Look at all the mass shooter types.  They are all mad.

Sometimes you eat the bear.  Sometimes the bear eats you.  I hope they have a happy Thanksgiving in the White House.  pl

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/nuclear-agreement-iran-51-forum-negotiations-palestinians.html?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=8631

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSBRE9AP03J20131126?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*AfPak%20Daily%20Brief&utm_campaign=South%20Asia%20Daily%20Brief%2011-26-13

http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2013/11/22/californias-bitter-pill-leaves-66-worse-off-in-aca-rollout/

 

 

Comments

[confusedponderer]

Re: "The servants of Israel in the Congress are trying to torpedo the second phase talks by moving the goal posts so far that they are out of reach for any place kicker. Maybe the Israeli team is going to advise them."

Obviously, not that they much need help, since they have a firm idea of who the enemy is - them Arabs.

Sen. Schumer said as much recently: ”Democrats and Republicans are going to work together to see that we don’t let up on these sanctions…until Iran gives up not only its nuclear weapons, but all nuclear weapon capability, all enriched uranium ... Every time the Arab world, the Palestinians, have risen against us, we have risen to defeat them. The one existential threat to Israel’s existence is a nuclear Iran.”

http://mondoweiss.net/2013/11/promises-sanctions-palestinians.html

Never mind that the Iranians aren't Arabs. And never mind that inalienable right.

The idiocy about capability, which I, to my chagrin also read in today's FAZ, is like wanting to deny Iran the mastery of fire.

Only because they have a theoretical capability that doesn't mean they're going to use it. Only because someone has a shotgun in his house that doesn't mean he's going to kill me. I carry an ECD knife. That doesn't mean I am going to stab somebody.

An enrichment capability is only a problem when one assumes, as is regularly alleged, evidence to the contrary notwithstanding, Iranian intentions to build a nuke.

From all places, the most vocal concerns about that come from the one country in the Middle East that has successfully ... secretly built nukes, and who are, unlike Iran, not even a member of the NPT. The Irony is likely lost on Buibi or his supporters in the US and elsewhere.

But then, the nuklear issue is, as with Iraq, probably just the one issue everybody can agree on. It is for Israel still about containment and regime change.

[Babak Makkinejad]

As you can see, there is no such thing as International Law.

Let us discuss a more productive topic.

Giants vs. the Yankees anyone?

[Matthew]

CP: Apparently, protecting Israel's right to act with impunity is now a "national security interest" of the United States.

[CK]

The policy towards Iran will change when Iran places an acceptable Pahlavi( 1925-1941,1941-1979)manqué upon the peacock throne.
They had the temerity to dislodge our peckerwood and we will see his replacement or else.
Gussy the above sentiment up with fine diplomatic flourishes and you have US policy re Iran.

[Rd.]

confusedponderer said...

" The one existential threat to Israel’s existence is a nuclear Iran.”

What izis have not figured out yet is; The ONLY existential threat to israel is the very existence of israel!!!!!

[confusedponderer]

... "is the very existence of israel" as a Jewish (only) state.

[confusedponderer]

Of course there is, I reiterate.

Whether you like it only depends on who's (ab)using it and to what ends.

It has been rather twisted into a right of the strong of recently, more than was the case before.

IMO that's primarily because it's main actor, the US, don't face a serious check atm, and can put into their foolish ideas without much opposition.

No legal system can function well with one party dominating.

[confusedponderer]

To people like Schumer certainly. Note the "us" and the "we":

"Every time the Arab world, the Palestinians, have risen against **us**, **we** have risen to defeat them"

To the best of my knowledge the Arab world, the Palestinians never rose against the US.

[Norbert M Salamon]

Perhaps you should add AIPAC to Jewish only Israel

[jon]

I think Barry is going to enjoy his Turkey Day just fine. Sure he has problems and enemies lined up against him, but it's not all gloom.

The interim Iran deal is a real breakthrough. The Iranians know they have little chance of getting the Senate to ratify a treaty, so it will be like START. The Iranians want the sanctions to end, and Obama wants some trophy for his wall, so a concluding deal will probably get cut. The Israelis will have kinniptions. Good for them.

Phase One of Syrian Chemical Weapons disarmament has gone rather well. The more we hear about the rebels, the uglier it is. So Obama's slow aid to the rebels looks wiser by the day. His preordained goal of removing Assad is still a handicap.

ACA is starting to work out well in states where their governors want it to work. The website will be patched together eventually. Once most people see they can get better care, for less money, and no worries about lack of coverage and losing their policies, there will be a great deal of satisfaction. Some of those people will vote.

If the House shuts the government down, again, the Republicans will lose again.

The Senate just rolled back cloture on appointments. So, Obama can start filling appointive positions and judgeships. The Senate has other aspects of cloture and Filibuster it can act on if Republicans don't start playing ball.

Does Obama really want troops permanently if Afghanistan? This is precisely a replay of the gambit in Iraq. Karzai's self preservation is the wild card. I'm not sure he has major ties to pipeline companies. Besides, being free of Afghanistan allows greater focus on Africa and the Pacific Pivot. We just flew a B-52 over islands disputed by China and Japan today - that is putting some skin in the game.

Obama should be worrying about the fragile economy, persistent high unemployment, and financial sector still out of control, our continued dependence on imported oil, our manufacturing base and supply lines in other countries, continued fallout from Wikileaks, and the growing impacts of global warming.

[Fred]

"... the demands Netanyahu presented at the government meeting Sept. 17... At that time, Netanyahu demanded that US President Barack Obama..."

If Obama had any backbone for something other than screwing the insured American he might remind Netanyahu which country is the client state.

[Jose]

- The Congress is basically flummoxed in its effort to decide what might be national priorities in a budget. The Republicans appear to be more interested in destroying Obama than in anything else. pl

Sequestration is the only BSHO original idea I support, controls spending levels and is the only check on Presidential power left.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

You posted an apt picture of the Russian Bear after swallowing Ukraine.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10469065/Historic-defeat-for-EU-as-Ukraine-returns-to-Kremlin-control.html

The Elite thought that screwing the EU peripheral states would have no consequences except decimating Euro-Latin working class. It did not turn out that way. Plutocrats next door have much more influence than Austerian Technocrats off in Brussels.

Saudi Arabia and the USA are starting their trial separation. The push for a Sunni Shiite Jihad is just too dangerous for the money makers with a nuclear armed Israel and Pakistan at either end of the boundary between the two Muslim religions and a major oil transportation route.

Today two ancient B-52s challenged disputed China Air Space.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25110011

Even this old fogie sees that the world order is changing. I just don’t see how military contractors can make money by the pivot to Asia. Cutting Asian trade or China cashing in American Treasury Bills would crash the world economy.

But then, there is always the possibility of a third Mexican Incursion.

[Mark Logan]

Rd.

I wonder if the "Izzies" are beginning to think Bibi's use-by date has come. Seems like everybody who's anybody is taking the other side now, apparently even the Saudi's. I guess being a better friend to Israel than the US would feel a little awkward for them.

For Bibi, this must be humiliating.

[different clue]

I would suggest reading blogposts about ACA over at Naked Capitalism to get their views and predictions on how many people will be helped versus hurt.

The prelim temporary deal with Iran is a good thing and a good start.

[Ulenspiegel]

It becomes even worse when such nonesnese is published in Die Zeit by J. Joffe:

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2013-11/iran-atomprogramm-genf-einigung

This guy should be able to seperate international law from power politics.

[Walrus]

The NYT is apparently reporting that Kerry has been running a back channel to Iran via Oman for months before he was even made S of S. the NYT apparently gives Kerry the credit for the current agreement. If this is true Col.Lang, would your opinion of the man be modified at all?

Sorry, no link, I'm 1700 nautical miles from home, on the edge of a desert, with an iPad.

[confusedponderer]

Re: "the Russian Bear after swallowing Ukraine"

I believe there is something akin to gravitational pull in such matters, and culturally the Uktraine has a lot more in common with Russia than with the EU, starting with a very similar language and a shared history.

Some of the statlets carved out of the old USSR have always struck me as somewhat articial.

I don't see a degree of consolidation with great concern, because I think that would have a stabilising effect, even though it would make Russia more powerful. Russia will sleep sounder with more territory betwen Moscow and the EU and NATO borders.

And if I look at Usbekistan and Karimov I can't help thinking that Putin would be an improvement. Same for places like Kyrgyzstan.

We could live with a more powerful Russia in the past and we can live with that again.

[turcopolier]

walrus

Well, good for him. let's see what else he can do. He was quite willing to go to war in Syria. the reason we did not was because the admin. did not have the votes in Congress. the Putin thing would not have happened if it had not been for that. pl

[The beaver]

Walrus

Same article from BostonGlobe:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/11/26/john-kerry-developed-secret-dialogue-with-iran-through-oman/rRBZZ8aeDrsP2Q2HdoWJEJ/story.html

And some more meat about the Oman-Iran ties.
http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/en/page/1915619/Oman%E2%80%99s+Smart+Ties+with+Iran+and+the+US.html

BTW A couple of times, Oman has been involved in the release of Americans held in Iran , paying money and providing airplane to bring them to Muscat.

[William R. Cumming]

OK! My take on Iran and USA! Main source Iranian=American who still has relatives in Iran some making rugs. He was Iranian air force under the Shah! About my age --71!

Iran after intensive study does not immediately need nukes. It could largely destroy Israel with current weaponery. The trick avoid Israel's retaliation with nukes.

As to the USA,the politicians now realize Americans are largely sick of preventive wars. So the agreement a fig leaf to save the politicians re-election. All totally dishonest of course.

No US politician wants to have to explain the vacillations in US FP to the American people.

[mac]

Mark,

I agree the Bibi's days as Prime Minister are numbered.

Over the years I've noticed an odd symmetry in the way the domestic politics of the US, Israel and Iran appear to play off one another. I haven't studied it seriously and there are probably exceptions to the patterns of development. Just as Ahmadinejad's time has come and gone, I think were there elections is Israel today, Bibi would suffer a humiliating defeat. Let's hope we have seen and heard the last of his demagoguery. I am afraid, however, we will not go quietly.

Mac

[turcopolier]

beaver et al

IMO Bill Burns and Wendy Sherman had a great deal to do with this success. pl

[Charles I]

"us" includes Israel

[Charles I]

That would be very embarrassing to explicitly identify oneself as the client.