McAullife's future

"In May, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli were roughly tied in a Washington Post poll. Since then, McAuliffe has pulled ahead, thanks in large part to the growing support of women. But the fact that women feel strongly about issues that separate McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, such as abortion and access to contraception, does not guarantee they will vote. To win, McAuliffe must draw women to the polls — especially younger women whose enthusiasm and sense of urgency in this race are sharply lower, according to polling results and brief interviews with more than 100 women living in Arlington’s youngest and most urban neighborhoods. Many of the women interviewed were so adamant in their disengagement that they declined to give their names."  Washpost

------------------------------

SWMBO and I observed McAuliffe and his family at an adjoining table at The Palm restaurant on 19th St. in Washington.  That was a couple of years ago.  He has several children.  Just from watching him I would say he is probably a good and devoted father.

We are suffering in this gubernatorial election from an absence of candidates that people want.  Douglas Wilder, a former Democratic governor of no great accomplishment, recently endorsed McAullife with visible reluctance.  That is how most voters seem to feel about the choice to be made in a few weeks. 

Cuccinelli is a right wing ideologue who has been the commonwealth's attorney general for the last four years.  He has not seemed to consider the evident truth that most Virginia voters are centrists who incline slightly right or left.  The positions he has taken and the actions he has pursued while AG are not pleasing to most.

On the other hand, McAullife is  a scheming political and business hustler reminiscent of the "people" seen on the TV program "Shark Tank."  I spent ten years in the business world after I left government and hated every minute of it.   "Screw anyone for a buck" is the norm and basic rule for success in that world.  I kept trying to preach the dogma of seeking to achieve win-win deals but nobody was buying this.  I did rather well but am not proud of it.

McAuliffe has run for state wide office twice before and lost.  This time he will probably win simply because the Republicans apparently could not field an acceptable candidate.  IMO McAuliffe will probably be a horrible experience as governor.  He has no interest whatever in Virginia except as a "trampoline" to propel him toward national elected office.  As an aspirant for leadership in the Left dominated national Democratic Party he will make statements and attempt actions in Virginia that will be extremely unpopular and likely to fail in the legislative process in Richmond.  Gun control, abortion, election procedures; the list will be long.  He will be on television often while noisily seeking national stature.  He will "hang" often with Bill and Hill.  They are still widely disliked in Virginia.  He will travel a lot, grandstanding across the country and the world instead of staying home to run the commonwealth's government.  Thank God that the governor of Virginia can not succeed himself.  The Byrds and Billy Mahone taught us the the danger of seemingly endless posession of power by one man.

The author of this WP piece correctly notes the residence in Arlington County and the City of Alexandria of many thousands of people who mostly work in Washington and have little or no interest in local affairs in Virginia or these communities.  They just live here.   Lower crime rates and taxes on this side of the river may explain their presence.  A great many of these folks are single women who live in the everproliferating town house and apartment buildings in sections like Parker-Grey and Potomac Yard in Alexandria.  For some reason a lot of them own large dogs.  If polled they are apt to give a reflexive Democratic response.  This is especially true when they have been constantly exposed to the unending barrage of McAulliffe TV ads that portray Cuccinelli not as an opponent but rather as an evil troll.  McAulliffe is a rich man with many dubious business ventures in his past.  He is one of the best political fund raisers in the country.  He has lots of money with whch to buy TV ads.  The Post article correctly raises the question of whether or not all those single women living in flats with big black dogs will turn out to vote in this election.

I think McAulliffe will win but I will not vote for him.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/women-are-mcauliffes-advantage--and-biggest-challenge--in-governors-race/2013/10/18/b60eee7c-31cd-11e3-9c68-1cf643210300_story.html?hpid=z2

 

 

Comments

[Martin Oline]

I think you are right in your assessment. I only know his reputation as a bag man for the Democrats. I wish Virginia had no term limit to keep him from inflicting himself on the nation. With any luck the WP will highlight his transgressions and short circuit his political ambition.

Thank you for this site and your diligence in keeping it civil.

[robt willmann]

Sure enough, Hillary Clinton appeared with Terry McAuliffe in his run for Virginia Governor--

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/hillary-clinton-terry-mcauliffe-virginia-98560.html

I remember that McAuliffe helped the Clintons get the nice house in Chappaqua, New York so that Hillary could run for the U.S. Senate. This old CBS news article says that he "loaned" them over $1 million to get the house--

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/mcauliffe-sorry-he-loaned-money-clintons

McAuliffe will of course be around to help when Hillary runs for president in 2016, which she will unless a disclosed medical condition gets in the way.

[Richard Armstrong]

I sure hope there is an independent candidate you can vote for as Cuccinelli is an old fashioned 19th centuy mysoginist with some really weird ideas about sex and the role of the state government in regulating what kinds of sex consenting adult heterosexuals can legally enjoy.

I guess if he becomes Governor all those Virginia Is for Lovers bumper sticker and t-shirts will have to go.

[LeaNder]

It feels they are doing their very best in this juxtaposition on the issues at hand.

http://tinyurl.com/o396n4j

Mc Aucliffe comes across as someone that does not provide sound reasons, or recurring explanation about how to fund matters, but most importantly quite possibly corrupt. With Cucinelli seemingly much more able to justify his decisions. But then, many legal issue and maybe he should be.

At one point I wondered if the "superficial" his ad creaters used somewhat hit home in the WP's assessment.

Beyond that well, "war on woman" versus "war on coal".

If I may be slightly ironic, though:

"For some reason a lot of them own large dogs. ... all those single women living in flats with big black dogs"

Rottweilers, accidentally? Apparently some men like them too. At least this one portrayed himself with a big black dog:
http://tinyurl.com/pd4yqjc

[turcopolier]

LeAnder

In re the dogs. Typically these women own some sort of Labrador mix. They are usually black. The dogs sit in the house/apt all day alone and know nobody but the owner. One bit my wife a few years back. She rang the front doorbell and the dog lunged past the owner and grabbed my wife by the wrist. The marks were impressive. These animals are severely under-socialized. I presume the women keep them because the animal makes them feel more secure. I am not exaggerating. There are a lot of such households. Rottweilers are typically kept around here by young men who seem to need the image of man plus potentially dangerous animal. pl

[turcopolier]

RA

I wont vote for either of them. pl

[Jose]

I will not comment on the internal affairs of a Northern and Blue state, but any dog that is not properly socialized is a potential problem. We have a black Lab that has never caused any problems other than jumping into the pool at will.

[twv]

WP highlight the faults of a Democrat?
Surely, you jest.
The WP is the in-house newsletter of the WH when the NYT, CNN, ABC, NBC, NPR, CBS, et al. aren't.

[William R. Cumming]

Our democracy [Republic] will fail if those eligible don't vote. Those who don't vote usually don't actively try to even understand the issues and make the choice of the best or better even when little to choose from between candidates.

[nick b]

I don't know if you're a sports fan, Col., but if you are I feel for you. Watching the NFL or the MLB post season is always less pleasant with a constant barrage of political advertising. I am grateful not to have to deal with it this year.

I agree with the bulk your analysis, especially of McAuliffe. I met him only once while he was still head of the DNC. He seemed to me to be a confident and skilled political operator: very much in charge. I remember thinking at the time that he was more impressive than the candidate we were there to support. However, it's also been my experience that the most talented political operators tend not to have similar governing skills. I hope for the sake of the Commonwealth that we are wrong about this.

I was curious though, where McAuliffe thinks he can go from here? He's already lead the DNC, Va. has two Democratic Senators that don't apppear to be going anywhere, and nationally (assuming the Democrats hold the White house) I think he'll be too far out of his role as an executive to command national attention. But that's just my speculation.

The WP article discusses the importance of women in McAuliffe's lead over Cucinelli (both Catholics, interesting) citing it as a reason for McAuliffe's growing lead. But looking back to May, when neither candidate was widely known, McAuliffe already had a +14 lead among women 47/33. So either generic Republicans, or perhaps Cucinelli in particular, were in trouble with this demographic from the beginning. This has only increased, 10 days ago Quinnipiac had it at +19 among likely women voters. I didn't get the feeling from the WP article that women they interviewed would fall into the 'likely voter' category.

In any case, the McAuliffe campaign can read the polls too, and will most assuredly have a robust GOTV operation to get their voters to the polls. I don't know the extent that McAuliffe has been able to tap into the Obama ground organization, but you can be sure he's worked hard, and certainly had enough money, to create one for himself that can be transitioned into the next Clinton for President ground operation. Once again, just my speculation.

I wonder how things might've have been different for the Va. Republicans if they had not chosen a convention to pick their candidates. I am not very keyed in to Va. politics, but I can't help but think Lt. Gov. Bolling might've been a more attractive statewide candidate. Also, It's my understanding that the GOP candidate for Lt. Gov., also chosen at convention, is a bit extreme, and pulls on Cucinelli's support. It will be interesting to see if the Va. GOP continues conventions for choosing their candidates in the future.

Lastly, Col., I was curious about your assessment of the the Clintons' popularity in Va.. I'm not sure how this is measured other than by polling. I didn't see and any Bill numbers, but Hillary Clinton seems quite popular in the state with an approval rating in the high 50s(Quinnipiac 8/22/13). Is there something I am not seeing?

[LeaNder]

Hmm, Yes, I met one dog I preferred to keep at a safe distance, keeping an eye on him. Usually didn't happen to me with dogs. A German Shepard, although i doubt that matters, what matters is how and where he was kept. The owner was a medical student approaching his exams. He lived in a tiny apartment, the dog was locked in there all the time. Ok, the future doc went out with him for a very, very short walk in the morning and in the evening. A real horror for any dog, but much more for a dog that size.

The dog was feared, I heard about him before, but never about the conditions under which he was kept. For several years, by the way, in other words the whole time of his owners studies.

************

Another dog story. I occasionally encountered a lady with her dog in a shop around the corner. Dog, leashed outside, lady shopping inside. All the time she was in there the dog barked ferociously outside till she was out there again. Drove me nuts, maybe everyone besides the lady herself, who almost seemed please with the attention. One day I managed to get out at the same time as she. What do you think happened? She rewarded him for the wonderful barking serenade with a big sausage.

[turcopolier]

Jose

In spite of the drivel put forth by the pundits, Virginia is neither a Northern nor a Blue state. pl

[Martin Oline]

Here is an amusing stand up routine regarding dogs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ4mT-Rzmvg

I hope the link works...

[Allen Thomson]

I'll not comment on dogs, but

> I spent ten years in the business world after I left government and hated every minute of it. "Screw anyone for a buck" is the norm and basic rule for success in that world. I kept trying to preach the dogma of seeking to achieve win-win deals but nobody was buying this. I did rather well but am not proud of it.

Me too, and I wonder how many former government/military people here had similar experiences after going into a business-world afterlife.

I had, of course, the standard frustrations in the government. But there was always the sense that most people were, though sometimes very misguidedly, trying to serve the greater good. That was to a large extent also true of a smaller company, largely staffed by other former gov/mil people and run by a former RAND guy that I went to work for subsequently. Then that company got bought by a large defense contractor at Tysons Corner, and I learned the meaning of evil.

Fortunately for me, the times and circumstances were favorable and I was, gracias a Dios, able to bail in a few years. And, be it said, learn some useful lessons from seeing evil from the inside.

[nick b]

Wow! I woke up to find this on one of my news aggregaters. I'm not sure if I've ever seen this in a gubernatorial election. I guess the level of dissatisfaction in Va. is much higher than I imagined.
http://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/our-opinion/today-s-top-opinion-the-election-forgetting-by-the-election/article_6a2c5e41-20f3-561a-a25d-52eedf4741f3.html

Becuase I know the posters here enjoy a good literary reference:
"Elections make voters complicit in the government they receive. If we would not urge a family member to vote this way or that, then we have no business recommending Cuccinelli, McAuliffe or Sarvis to our readers.

Virginians of a poetical bent understand why Abelard and Heloise retreated to “the deep solitudes and awful cells, where heavn’ly-pensive contemplation dwells.” We have had enough."

Interesting times, indeed.

[Haldlock]

And neither will the Times-Dispatch:
http://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/our-opinion/today-s-top-opinion-the-election-forgetting-by-the-election/article_6a2c5e41-20f3-561a-a25d-52eedf4741f3.html

[William R. Cumming]

None should own a dog unwilling to give obedience training to the dog!

[Anon1]

For me, as a Virginia voter, McAuliffe is the lesser of two evils. He will do a lot less damage to the commonwealth than Cuccinelli, who is a true believer religious zealot. I don't like having to pick McAuliffe, but I can't sit on the sidelines and let somebody make my choice for me.

[jmc5588]

I had somewhat experiences somewhat similar to those of our host and Mr. Thomson. A veteran (but not a military retiree), I returned from the VN war and went to work for a local college, which turned out to be not so much a college of business as a business of college. The climate was indeed "screw anyone for a buck." Those who got screwed were the students who paid substantial tuition for substandard instruction. It wasn't so much "evil" as soulless and devoid of any ethical sense. I quit and went to graduate school, and have been working for our mutual uncle since the mid-'80s. My sense of government service is the same as Mr. Thomson's. There is still a sense of service, albeit one that has been sorely strained over the past three or four years.

[turcopolier]

anon1

I see your point but do not want to see McAuliffe win too big. pl

[optimax]

Our political dualopily limits the voters to a choice between the lesser of two evils. The RNC and DNC both answer to the same masters, with only slight differences, centralizing political influence in a monied elite and corrupting the political process.

Dogs, like people, are individuals and need to be respected as such. Some of the sweetest dogs are well socialized and exercised Pit Bulls and Rottweillers. Rotties have an endearing instinct to lean their side against your leg to be petted. Golden Retrievers sit on your foot to be petted. I knew a poodle mix whose eyes would tear up if you didn't pick her up and put her on your lap. That is supposed to be physiologically impossible.

[smoke]

Does Virginia still allow write-in votes?

It seems to me that, when one values the right to vote but rues the candidates on offer, a good way to indicate distaste is to return a ballot without selecting a candidate in that particular contest. A write-in adds emphasis to this demurral, making clear that the voter did not casually miss the line, and did think about the choices, enough to suggest a better candidate.

The press frequently discusses low voter turnout caused, they say, because voters were not motivated by the issues or the candidates. I'd like to hear the press report on the ballots left unmarked in a particular contest, or marked with write-ins, by voters who did take the trouble to vote. The latter should be a stronger indicator of actual voter dissatisfaction, if only it were regularly counted and discussed.