Mursi and MB members' travel restricted in coup now underway

 

 

"Egyptian security forces on Wednesday imposed a travel ban on President Mohamed Morsi and several top Islamist allies over their involvement in a prison escape in 2011, security officials said. Airport officials confirmed to AFP that they had received orders to prevent the leaders -- including Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood chief Mohammed Badie and his deputy Khairat al-Shater -- from travelling abroad." Ahram

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There is no doubt that SCAF is resuming control of Egypt today.  Mursi and company are virtually under house arrest and will be deposed.  He will be joining Mubarak in jail I think.  Big screens have been put up in all major "maydans" (squares).  An announcement is imminent

The US government has already "rolled over" and announced that it does not back "a side," and that its side is that of the Egyptian people.  This means the military will pay no aid reduction price.  In essence the US has now "greenlighted" the coup.  Good.  At last a little realism

This is, of course, another massive defeat for Obama since the Egypt MB/Islamist project has been one of his favorite idiocies.  It is in much the same current of policy that fuels his foreign policy in Syria, Afghanistan and other places.

I juast listened to an ex-State Department "expert" on Egypt plead for a continuin role for the MB.  Hah!    pl 

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75612/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-security-slaps-travel-ban-on-Morsi,-top-Isla.aspx

 

Comments

[Alba Etie]

Would it unrealistic to read into this a course correction in the BHO foreign policy - by not taking sides in Egypt ? And for all the drama and fuss has the administration really escalated the shipping of arms to al Nusra ? Ever the romantic I sense a shift in the tide here for supporting the Wahabee International ( to borrow a phrase from Professor Kiracoffe ) . We shall see.

[Kunuri]

"It is in much the same current of policy that fuels his foreign policy in Syria, Afghanistan and other places."

When will they ever wake up to the fact that religion driven regimes will never compromise, have no interest for the needs of people who do not agree with them, that all their alliances are those of material convenience and not of principle, and if they ever seem to be reasonable democrats, its a strategy for pacifying dissent for the time being.

[Medicine Man]

Well Alba, that depends entirely on the follow through. If we see a tangible shift on Syria maybe we can assume Obama got mugged by reality and had the sense to accept the lessons presented to him. Less naivete coming from the White House regarding the likely fruits of populism in the Middle East would be welcome.

[MartinJ]

The Brethren will be faced with a dilemma: to fight against the coup or to lick its wounds and figure out that despite Mursi gaining 51% of the popular vote their support has been severely eroded. As one commentator put it "Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak tried for 60 years to break the Brotherhood, Mursi needed only one year." If only that wasn't wishful thinking.

[Alba Etie]

Hello Kunuri
When is the next national election in Turkey ?
And will Erdogan stay in power ?

[Alba Etie]

To paraphrase a tried and true political witticism - "A conservative is a liberal thats been mugged " Perhaps BHO , after the failed COIN exercise & ther in AFPAK & other bad neocon advise ; is listening to fresh voices - ie Gen Dempsey & Secretary of Defense Hagel ,

[Will Reks]

I doubt Obama cares whether it's the MB or some other party in control of Egypt as long as they pretend to abide by his platitudes to respect human rights, women's rights, and sectarian rights.

I think he was always satisfied with someone who wouldn't rock the boat with regards to Israel. It probably helped his relations with the MB that they had legitimacy for at least a little while.

Obama will pay no domestic price for rhetorical support of Morsi. However, the Egyptian street (at least in Cairo) seems to have reacted very negatively to statements from the WH in the last day or two straddling the fence. There is also some bitterness about the mainstream Western media focusing more on the military's role than the millions protesting in the streets.

[turcopolier]

Will Reks

your statements imply a value neutral attitude toward the MB. Nonsense. They are the enemies of modernism. pl

[Will Reks]

Pat

I agree that the MB are enemies of modernism if that needed to be said.

My point is that the MB's removal from power isn't nearly as massive a defeat for Obama as you portrayed it to be. Obama's affinity for the MB is not ideological. He merely thought he could work with them.

There are parallels to his approach to domestic politics in this.

[mbrenner]

The ineptitude of this crowd is as stunning as is their arrogance. That derives, I believe, from a combination of studied ignorance, conceit, inexperience, and a failure to differentiate between the spinnable game of domestic politics wherein its the news cycle that counts and international politics wherein there are other self-willed actors whose thinking and behavior you can neither control nor easily spin. These are amateurs at play rather than ideologues (certainly that is true of Obama, Donilon, Kerry). No serious statesman would publicly back Mursi as Obama did from Tanzania on Monday when the handwriting is on the wall - and in the immediate aftermath of probably the biggest demonstration of public sentiment in Egyptian history. What is the US standing among all and any Egyptians at this point? It is not a question of what they are thinking as much as it is a question of are they thinking at all. By the way, where in Hagel on these matters?

[toto]

If the army makes good on its promise to run elections soon, it's looking like a Turkey situation (pre-Erdogan). The Army keeps its hands off the actual government, but intervenes if the elected leaders cross the yellow lines.

(It's a big if.)

[turcopolier]

Will Reks

I agree with what you say about Obama's pathetic world view, but the US foreign policy established embodied in the State Department, the NSC staff, the universities and the think tankeries share the same poly sci inspired insanity and Obama has accepted that repeatedly. I will press for his ststus as someone who should be declared to be anathema. pl

[Alba Etie]

It seems that SCAF is already rounding up the MB leadership . According to al jezerra & CNN ...

[Stephanie]

"There is also some bitterness about the mainstream Western media focusing more on the military's role than the millions protesting in the streets."

Because it's a coup and not a revolution. The media are good at ignoring inconvenient facts, so if they're acknowledging this one it's actually progress of a kind.

[mbrenner]

In regard to ineptitude, we should also note the farcical act of quasi-piracy against President Morales of Bolivia organized by Washington. The Latin American reaction ensures that our popularity in most quarters there will be little better than it is in Cairo. The best one can say is that the Obama people do not discriminate on the basis of ethnicity or religion or national origin when it comes to choosing locations for their pratfalls.

[DH]

Egypt's Princess Fawzia has died at 92. Note the gorgeous picture and the modern garb. Am I correct to assume that when she married Iranian crown prince Pahlavi, she was Sunni and he was Shia?

https://socialreader.com/me/content/LOGLv?chid=4569&_p=article_related[4]

[Fred]

"Obama will pay no domestic price for rhetorical support of Morsi. "

He's a lame duck. Any decent Republican leader in the House or Senate can savage his and the Democratic Party's leadership of our foreign policy with ease. Jimmy Carter at least was a decent man. Any Democrat not named Hilary that wants a chance of the White House in 2016 should do the same.

[The beaver]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-05-030713.html

{Henceforth, a post-Morsi Egypt will likely embed itself more firmly in the Saudi-led conservative camp, take a more assertive role vis-a-vis the crisis in Syria, provide greater assurance to Israel and put to rest the US and Israeli concerns about any regional realignment, in other words, a "thermidorian" restoration of status quo foreign policy approach favored by the unreconstructed Egyptian armed forces.}

[Fred]

'...embed itself more firmly in the Saudi-led conservative camp, " Does Dr. Afrasiabi think Saudi Arabia is now going to foot the welfare bill for millions of poor Egyptians rather than the US?

[The beaver]

Qatar has poured $8bn of financial support into Egypt, and has been the main Gulf backer of Mr Morsi’s government ( Financial Times) and now with a religious general who is pro-KSA , I guess the Saudis will make sure to compensate (in addition to the $1.5 B from Uncle Sam).Those"aid packages" are as good as those from the US

[Jane]

I've not been concerned about the outcome of the democratization being attempted across the Arab world precisely because of the tendency of fundamentalist groups to overreach. As long as a reasonably fair election could be anticipated and attained the matter would cure itself. The problem was whether hoping for a reasonably fair next election was simply wishful thinking or not and how much damage would be done to minorities and to civil rights in the interim. Running a democracy successfully does require a certain amount of respect for the opinions of one's opponents.

I've not followed Egypt closely enough to have a well founded opinion on that matter. I know that Morsi 'force through' a Constitution that many felt did not adequately protect rights. The country appears to be split about 50/50 in terms of the degree of religious control it prefers or is willing to tolerate. The more secular half is largely in the cities and better educated and hence, when activated, can overwhelm the wishes of the countryside despite the MB starting with a higher degree of organization.

The millions in the streets will undoubtedly believe they are the majority but it is not clear that they are.

A democracy run within limits set by the military is probably the best that can be hoped for at this point.

[Kunuri]

Ruling party AKP has announced dates for 2 elections and a referendum for 2014, but that was before Taksim protests which changed all political dynamics in Turkey.

On the dock, first is the nationwide elections for the municipalities in March 2014, referendum for the new constitution in May and election of a new president as normally planned, by the parliament. However, Erdogan wants to create a new, much more powerful presidential position elected by popular vote after changing the constitution by referendum, as I stated
above. General elections are set for mid 2015.
All opposition parties declared their readiness and willingness for any and all elections for the future. That was even before the June protests.
AKP has hit its zenith May 30, 2013. Looking in hindsight now, it has nowhere to go but down, the only point of contention is how far down.

AKP has managed unwittingly to offend the Alevis, re unite the Kurds, awaken the apolitical youth and urban middle classes, and energize the organized opposition. In his efforts to solidify his loyal base, he alienated portions his conservative coalition, large sections of which are moderate conservatives.

So he faces a united opposition, suffers from ruling party fatigue, loses the adoration of EU and US, becomes the laughing stock of the Arab world and perhaps starts to lose the support of the Gulen movement. And most important of all, so called neo liberal intellectuals and media which previously gave him unqualified support for his liberal economic policies. He even alienated two of the largest conglomerates of Turkey, Koc and Sabanci holdings.

All polls point to a serious decline in AKP votes and approval, which should continue steadily if he does not adopt a drastic change of course immediately and get used to governing through inclusive consensus and not by decree. So far no evidence of this, so far so good as far as I am concerned.

By the way, his new forced constitution is in an impass, Kurdish initiative is at a standstill due to his uncompromising stance, presidential system proposal wildly unpopular and economy is giving danger signals.

[Medicine Man]

I suppose I'm a bit like you, in that I'm not eager to heap scorn on President Obama. Maybe it is as simple as that and he is wising up? Here's hoping.