Syrian rebels are losing.

"... analysts say there is little doubt that the pendulum is now swinging in favor of Assad, potentially putting him in a strong position to set terms if the negotiations with the opposition that the Obama administration and Russia last week agreed to sponsor eventually take place. “If things continue as they are, the government will certainly be the party that has the major advantage” in any talks, said Charles Lister of the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “If we press pause on where we are today, it is clear the insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime.” Pro-Assad analysts credit a major restructuring of government forces that has better equipped them to confront the insurgency. The ranks of the conventional Syrian army — weary, depleted and demoralized by defections, casualties and more than a year of continuous fighting — are being swelled by the deployment of some 60,000 militia irregulars trained at least in part by Hezbollah and Iranian advisers."  Washpost

--------------------------------------

Well, well well,   Does this mean that the forces of R2P do not inevitably triumph?  I have been in attendance at various Washngton meetings at which the mouthpieces of; WINEP, AEI, The Institute for the Study of  War (Kagan/Nuland neocon tool), the Syrian Rebels, etc. all proclaimed that "history was on their side" and that the Assad government would soon fall to be replaced by a liberal, multi-confessional blah-blah, etc.  The IDFGeneral Staff does not share this view.  They dread the emergence of a jihadi run theocracy in what is now Syria.

Fouad Ajami, that learned man (he who may not be questioned), opines in his oped piece cited below that the great Syrian liberalization could take place, might take place, is to be hoped for, etc.  I would remind this sainted person that hope is not a fitting basis for policy and that in fact the US has no ability whatever to determine the political outcome in Syria unless we want to do another major military intervention. All the baloney in the world about the CIA or SF sneaking around, training people or dropping bags of money out of helicopters (my experience in SE Asia and other places) will not make the Syrians obey the US.   I am a UW trained and experienced SF officer and I am here to tell you that winning wars and political outcomes that come from wars require real people with real guns who put themslves in real jeopardy.

What should the US do?  We should mind our own business.

pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/assad-forces-gaining-ground-in-syria/2013/05/11/79147c34-b99c-11e2-b568-6917f6ac6d9d_story.html?hpid=z2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syrias-war-the-lines-that-matter-arent-red/2013/05/09/b29ac688-b808-11e2-92f3-f291801936b8_story.html

 

Comments

[John]

"We should mind our own business.

So simple, yet so correct!

[b]

This is a dangerous moment. When a proxy force is losing its sponsors tend to interfere themselves. Such was the case in Bosnia.

The U.S. government now seems to be ready to negotiate. But that mood can change again. It may also be a trick. The planned Geneva terms conference is unlikely to happen soon. Even if it happens it is unlikely that it will be successful.

There are too many people (Turkey, Qatar) who have bet their houses on Assad's fall and who will do about anything to avoid an outcome where he is still standing. That is why I expect more trouble before this is over.

[turcopolier]

b

The US is not yet ready to negotiate anything but the terms of Assad's surrender. IMO this would end by being something like the surrender of the British at Ft. William Henry. pl pl

[confusedponderer]

"I am a UW trained and experienced SF officer and I am here to tell you that winning wars and political outcomes that come from wars require real people with real guns who put themselves in real jeopardy."

Literacy, clean water, electricity ... that's rinky-dink do-gooder stuff ... where's the glory in building a sewage system? War is where the action is.

So, speaking of the pursuit of glory, what do you make of the prospects of the US having a highly motivated, elite corps of liberator shock troops, recruited solely from the pool of the enthusiasts - the Kaganses, Kristols, Slaughters, R2Pers, Neocons, Trotzkyites, Neo-Wilsonians and all the various exiles and whoever else I have forgotten - valiantly spearheading - in country - every effort to bring elections, liberty and woman rights to the benighted unwashed all over the world? First folks first! Uniforms should be roughly look like, say, Captain America.

Ah, they'd probably come up with a scheme to pursue a market driven approach, that would put a contractor in charge of the effort, to whom they would them outsource their shock troop function. Clearly, it is far more efficient that way.

Still, thinking of it, I'd probably pay to watch them parachute into Syria.

[r whitman]

PL-do you see a parallel here to the Lebanese civil war that lasted 15 years and only ended when the Syrians occupied the country?

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Yes, we are at a very dangerous place.

Assad, to stay in power, has aligned his regime with the Shiites; Iran and Hezbollah. The Syrian rebel fighters are primarily Sunni Jihadists. From Qatar Oil Sheiks through Israel Firsters to War Profiteers, the White House is being shoved into a regional religious war.

To succeed the intervention has to separate the Shiites and Sunnis in Syria. The fighting would spread into Iraq. A million plus army is needed to pacify the Levant. A Western Christian intervention could result in ethnic warfare spreading from Beirut to Karachi.

[turcopolier]

VV

You forgot the Christians. They are altogether for the Syrian government. pl

[turcopolier]

r. whitman

That or the hundred years plus struggle between the Zionists and the Arabs, only to end when a superior power intervenes or exhaustion sets in. pl

[turcopolier]

CP

"Literacy, clean water, electricity ... that's rinky-dink do-gooder stuff' Do you really have the balls to talk down to me about counterinsurgency? I have done all of what you call do-gooder stuff in COIN operations and none of it wins wars against guerrillas. In the end you have to defeat the guerrillas as they swim in the sea. You have to suborn them or kill them. I watched Bernard Fall write on a blackboard "COIN=economic development + political action + counter-guerrila operations. He was kind enough to answer my questions. pl

[confusedponderer]

"Do you really have the balls to talk down to me about counterinsurgency? "

Mr. Lang, quite to the contrary. Samantha Power, of R2P fame, is reported to have lamented that, being White House Iraqi Refugee Czar, she was stuck with doing such boring 'rinky-dink do-gooder stuff', and wasn't getting her share of the 'real action'.

That said, I thank you for your kindness answering my occasional questions, and suffering my occasional mischievousness.

[confusedponderer]

And I just now got what I implied writing above.

Didn't mean that. I wanted to contrast what you wrote against the folks who push theory and abstraction as policy, and face no repercussions whatsoever for their policies, even when their ideas are harebrained, don't work and cause untold harm and damage.

Therefore my mention of Samantha Power's quip, that indicated to me that the humanitarian stuff was to her a drag on her career.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Yes indeed, we should mind our own business particularly as our political elites and foreign policy makers are grossly incompetent self-referential fools as demonstrated daily for the world to see.

Pogo Theory rules.

My understanding is that elements in the Christian community over a number of months have moved to arm themselves against the satanic Wahhabis and salafis.

[Al Arabist]

I feel embarassed to read Ajami's schlockish prose, more Goebbels than Grimm... make a "clean break" with Asad http://www.israeleconomy.org/strat1.htm
- have the Syrian middle class "erect" a "merciful nation of merchants" ...- make Lebanon "normal"...- de-militarize Syria. Such idiocy from a small claustropohic mind.
All of this happened with the "Syrian neighbor apart," aka the good neighbor Israel who wisely "steered clear of Syria's fire." If he were my student I'd google his paper for plagiarism...
A regular citizen whose brain was not for hire might write about how the U.S. will climb down from our untenable position, pay off FSA guys (like in Angola) to go back to their towns, kick Nusra front out and let Asad still be king but under an army? Maybe help Syrian provinces get power? I don't know but it's better than purple prose.

[The Twisted Genius]

It will be interesting to get an accurate account of how Assad's forces have reorganized themselves to fight the rebels. How involved are Hezbollah and the Quds Force in organizing and advising the Jaysh al-Sha'bi militia? I've read it's a 50,000 strong force organized to fight locally. That sounds like the Hezbollah local militia that fought well in the 2006 war in south Lebanon. How has the Shabiha changed from smugglers and dissident bashers to whatever they are doing now. Have Quds helped to reorganize any Syrian Army units to become more effective counter guerilla units? What level of coordination is taking place among these forces?

[JohnH]

Instead of minding our own business, "the US is not yet ready to negotiate anything but the terms of Assad's surrender." In other words, we can expect the US to double down via its allies (Turkey, Qatar, etc.)

This is no surprise. And so, the killing will proceed apace. Meanwhile, US will continue to issue calls to end the violence, which it is helping to fuel.

So why did Kerry meet Putin? Because he's a phony?

[confusedponderer]

I wonder: Since apparently Iran and the Quds Force helped Assad train his militia - is this an born of pragmatism?

How does Iran get along with Syria's Alwis? Iirc the Alawi are so heterodox in their beliefs that some don't consider them really Muslims any more (that sure goes for the Jihadis).

Do the Iranians and Hezbollah not mind theologically, or do they take all the friends they can get, and bother about theology later? I have always had the impression that for instance Hezbollah is a distinctly local group, with local interests, and I would count to that having a ally as their eastern neighbour.

Also, on a professional level, do American experts look at the Quds Force with as professionals to be respected, or as hoodlums to be detested?

[Tyler]

The flailings of the neoliberal globalists in charge of foreign policy in DC would be interesting to watch if so much wasn't at stake.

[Alba Etie]

b
I have a hypothesis, that President Obama, is mitigating against the meddlings from the Bush Cheney 'leave behinds" in the power structure that is Washington . "And also too "- the current think tank usual suspects that still have some 'pull ' left after the the former administration left .I also believe that President Obama learned from the misjudgement of staying in AfPak -and has therefore accelerated our leaving SW Asia with most of our forces being gone earlier then Kagan and the rest of the "gang the could not shoot straight " neocons would want . I try to test my hypothesis against actions the BHO administration has taken - not against rhetoric or the 'mind reading ' of our President. We did go to Libya - but we did not stay like we did at Pristina. We have left Irak . We have not bombed Natanz eveb though BiBi and the Hasbara through a fit. I do not believe the US will
intervene militarily in Syria. I am not an expert on any of these many foreign and military affairs here at SST . I learn a bunch here . I also know to watch actions more and rhetoric less.

[steve]

For years Assad made overtures to both the US and to Israel only to be rebuffed. That rejection made little sense to me at the time, and given current events, even less now.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

I suppose we could call Ajami an academic whore in the service of the neocons and pro-Israel policy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fouad_Ajami

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Forum

[turcopolier]

steve

What you say is true. The supposition that Assad's government is an enemy of the US is a product of skillful PR. pl

[Peter C]

From what I gathered during the run up to the invasion of Iraq, Syria was also in the cross hairs, the Neo Cons surly regret missing their big opportunity. Syria being in the cross hairs of several factions within D.C. will keep up the drum beat to throw Assad out until they get their way.

[bth]

Col, is our best Syrian best to stand back and let the various Syrian factions duke it out and weaken each other regardless of the end state? I can see some logic in this, but was wondering if you were aware of any better ideas?

[confusedponderer]

That is the key problem. Such PR comes at a price to the public, as it sets policy vis a vis Syria on a course that is not defined by US interests but by the narrative of said PR.

That Assad is essentially defending Christians and Alawis alike from the people who conduct suicide bombings and beheadings, and whose spiritual predecessors iirc cut the throats of scores of Alawite Air Force cadets in the notable incident leading to the reduction of Homs by Assad the Elder, just doesn't fit that narrative, and is thus outside the foreign policy consensus in the US, and thus not reported on except in a few publications.

I read from a French expert that some 60 years ago Alawis could be bought and owned in Syria. To Assad it is not just his own survival but the survival of his people as something other than second class citizens. Perhaps some of Assad's ruthlessness is owed to the apparent nastiness and haughtiness of the country's majority?

As it is now, the US are locked on a path towards regime change. Regime change as a policy goal is one of the things in which there is uninterrupted continuity from Bush to Obama. The US had themselves merrily manoeuvred into a position in which they have no option left but to escalate policy vis a vis Syria. And there was no attempt to steer clear of that demonisation since the policy outcome, regime change, the removal of Assad, is part of the DC consensus.

It will start with sanctions, which won't work, leading to further escalation until there only is the cleansing and righteous force of US arms left as the only option - and be it Bush or Obama, all options must be on the table, irrespective of their legality.

In a sense, that is precisely what happened to US policy towards Iraq. It was politically not feasibly to make any deal with Saddam, because it would have been political suicide to do so.

It isn't much different with Syria now. What does it matter that Assad probably didn't use CW against his people but that it was the goons the US have chosen to embrace as the liberators of the New Syria? Even so, Assad has been made a caricature hobgoblin and thus he must go.

[The Twisted Genius]

confusedponderer,

Much to the chagrin of Zionist and neocon propaganda organs, Iran still has Jewish, Zoroastrian and Christian communities. IMHO this is a matter of tolerance for other monotheistic religions mixed with pragmatism. This pragmatism probably trumps any concerns over helping Alawis and Christians in Syria. I would imagine the same pragmatism influences Hezbollah policy.

Only Zionist and neocon propaganda dismisses the Quds Force as nothing more than detestable hoodlums. I'm reminded of the words of an old SF master sergeant who, after three tours in CCN, said he referred to the NVA as Mr. Charles rather then Charlie... they earned that respect.