The Latest Syrian News

 

"Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say. Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri - a shift which could extend Syria's conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes. The fighting has already cost 90,000 lives. The break-up of an important part of Syria's opposition, already splintered into hundreds of armed groups, worsens the dilemma faced by the West as it debates whether intervention to support the rebels will result in arms being placed in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. And the if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad "Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad," said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front. "It is disintegrating from within.""  Reuters

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"The Syrian opposition is demanding access to arms before planned peace talks next month, amid a growing consensus that it may take a shift in the balance of power on the battlefield before any meaningful negotiations can take place. Khalid Saleh, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Coalition, said Thursday that his group is pushing for “serious arming” of the rebels ahead of the U.S.- and ­Russian-backed negotiations. His comments come as European nations consider linking the lifting of an E.U. arms embargo to the talks. Graphic A look at the Syrian uprising nearly two years later. Thousands of Syrians have died and President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, despite numerous calls by the international community for him to step down. Latest stories on Syria Fueled by war in Syria, resurgent sectarianism tests Iraqi government Abigail Hauslohner MAY 16 Iraqi Sunnis say the prospect of a regional power shift has emboldened them to confront their government. As Syrian refu­gees settle into life in camps, Turkey seeks long-term help Kevin Sullivan MAY 15 With its Syrian refu­gee population set to double this year, Ankara wants to resettle some in U.S. and Europe. U.N. ‘strongly’ condemns Syrian government attacks on civilians Colum Lynch MAY 15 The vote pits the U.S. and Russia against each other as they try to start talks between the two sides. Video allegedly depicting atrocity by Syrian rebel revives worries about aid Loveday Morris MAY 14 Gruesome footage is released as Kerry warns Assad that the U.S. is ready to boost help for rebel forces. Obama, Cameron voice limited hope about fate of Syria conference Karen DeYoung MAY 13 News of the conference came amid a White House debate leaning sharply toward providing arms to the rebels. Syria’s rebels split into hundreds of groups, Red Cross officials says Tom Miles MAY 13 Syria’s rebels are fragmented into hundreds of armed groups that control swathes of the north. Turkey’s Erdogan to meet with Obama amid unusual public friction between countries Kevin Sullivan MAY 13 The prime minister wants the U.S. to take a more aggressive stance toward the Syria crisis. Syrian President Bashar al- Assad’s forces have made gains on the ground in recent weeks, closing in on the strategic western city of Qusair with the help of fighters from Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah movement. On Thursday, they repelled a rebel attack on a prison in the northern city of Aleppo. Analysts and diplomats say that those gains may dim the chance of the regime taking part in substantive talks and that the opposition needs to be strengthened. Meanwhile, the opposition has jumped at the opportunity to leverage its long-standing demand for arms."   Washpost

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In review:

The already effective jihadi Islamist domination of the "opposition" in Syria is here reported as shifting in the direction of direct AQII leadership of the movement.  It should be understood that the agenda of the Islamist jihadis in Syria is not simply the removal of the present government.  No, their agenda is for the abolition of the state of Syria as an impious western contrivance and its replacement by theocratic rule in the fom of religious rule which would revolutionize society as thoroughly as the Khmer Rouge sought to revolutionize Cambodia in a different cause.

At the same time it is now admitted by pro-"opposition" media and spokesmen that the "opposition" is losing ground in the war.  This appears to be the result of; Syrian re-organization, increased training and use of Shabiha militias and the presence and assistance of Hizbullah, Iranian and Russian materiel and in some cases, advice.  The BHO/Kerry team has proposed a conference on the war among the parties in order to facilitate the surrender of Assad's government.  The rebel response is to demand that it be armed BEFORE they will agree to attend the conference.  The BHO Administration may well agree to that since it favors the rebels.

Amazing.  pl 

 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-syria-crisis-nusra-idUSBRE94G0FY20130517

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-demand-weapons-before-talks/2013/05/16/f12a304a-be5d-11e2-89c9-3be8095fe767_story.html

 

Comments

[fred]

Turkey wants to settle Syrian refugees in the US? Just how many terrorists and their sleeper cells are Kerry and BHo willing to transplant here and why?

[Tyler]

Sir,

Your analysis on these events is as always, fascinating. Thanks for sharing.

[Walrus]

At the beginning of the BHO Presidency I labelled him as a narcissist and predicted that before he was retired he would do something so mind blowingly stupid we would all be scratching our heads. Supporting the Syrian opposition confirms my prediction.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Yes, isn’t it strange that America went from battling Sunni militants in Fallujah to proposing to supply them arms a few years later.

The post “When Governments Go Bad” below is an explanation. “Money talks.” We have a Government of, by and for the money movers who have all gotten a get out of jail card from the Department of Justice.

If the Interventionists prevail; not too far in the future, a grizzled old First Sergeant will make his tenth tour of the Middle East, no longer able to retire after 20 years, fighting Muslim teenagers on their way to paradise armed with M-4 Carbines made in America. His Grunts will only be Christian true believers or secular Losers without any other job.

The Hell they visited wasn’t their fault.

[swampy]

Getting more horrific by the day. Wasn't the spread of militant Islam one of the reasons for the Iraqi invasion and the GWoT? How the hell does one look at this as anything other than a complete failure and total mess of foreign policy.

I guess there are some powerful parties that see nothing but good things from this level of destabilization.

[eakens]

Of course they have proposed a conference. That's what you do when things aren't going your way, isn't it?

[jonst]

Just out of curiosity, has a AQII like (and you can define that broadly, for purposes of this conversation) organization been sucessful anywhere on the face of the earth in establishing anything resembling a govt? The Balkans? Central Asia. The ME? Cause a hole hell of lot of trouble? You betcha...take power? I don't think so. They just seem outsiders, where ever the appear. And inevitably and their own cruelty, arrogance, and stupidity wear out what little welcome they might have had in the first place

I am not advocating any policy here...I'm simply asking a question.

[AK]

United States foreign policy has revealed itself as the political manifestation of the Kama Sutra: We just keep finding new and ingenious ways to screw ourselves and everyone else into one big messy pile. Beyond that, I have no words....

[bth]

Col. a few months ago I would have thought our best strategy would be to follow Turkey's lead. But at this point I don't see Turkey leading anything. What am I missing? Turkey wants us to intervene and let them sit it out? I have missed some important turn in the road with their policy... I guess?

[mbrenner]

That's only one part of a two-part strategy. The other part follows a tried and true formula.

First, form a task-force including as many parties as possible. Then, set up dozens of panels and committees under its aegis. Recruit a staff of careerists. Encourage each panel to hire well-paid experts and consultants. Finance entire enterprise with an appropriation in an amount in the high 8 figures. Do not stir before 5,000 word report is filed on date as far distant as possible.''Foolproof

[JerseyJeffersonian]

That the Turks would want us to intervene while they sit it out shows very good observational powers on their part. I mean, after all, it's worked just fabulously for the Israelis, hasn't it?

Don't get your own people killed, don't spend your own money. Let the Americans do it.

And the hell of it? There are so many vested interests now making s**tpiles of money from war making, that there is a built-in lobbying force for more 'o' dat. KBR stands to make a bundle, various private "security" forces are right behind them. And that doesn't even count the makers of arms and ordnance, your "classic" war profiteers. Money, money, money.

Does it make sense? No, it does not; but that does not mean that it will not be done. Profit motives, idiotic politicians, so-called "foreign policy experts", a flaccid, supine press unwilling to ask pointed questions (those questions just generate problems with "access", and piss off the advertisers, ya see). A racket.

Smedley Butler must be spinning in his grave.

[Bill H]

Yes, in Somalia. It wasn't great, but the Islamic Courts Union routed the various warlords and established a system of order that was mostly welcomed as better that the chaos that preceeded them. We assisted Ethiopia in invading and restoring Somalia to absolute chaos because we were convinced that the ICU was harboring Al Queda terrorists.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"their agenda is for the abolition of the state of Syria as an impious western contrivance and its replacement by theocratic rule in the fom of religious rule"

Yes indeed. This suggests that the jihadis will not leave Syria voluntarily. There are 20 some million Syrians who don't want to be Wahhabis or salafis facing some tens of thousands of jihadis who need to be exterminated. It would seem that the war will grind on for some time. Already in the third year. I would think that Hizbullah, Iran Rev Guard, and Russian special forces, among others, have good opportunities for action.

Meanwhile, US policymakers who led the President and our country into this mess need to be identified publicly. The humanitarian interventionists such as Hillary, Anne Marie Slaughter, Samantha Power and Fred have been noted. But more detailed analysis of the policy process is needed. As the US media are whores and incompetent we need not bother with them as stenographer-cheerleaders. Well, perhaps particularly gungho journalists ought to receive attention. But think tanks can influence policy so should come under our gaze.

The Iraq War/AFghan War had a clear ver visible network of Neocons both in and out of government promoting it. Many of those active in the policy process were identified by name at the time and a good picture of the process emerged.

We need same for the Syria War, not as a mere historical exercise but also for analytical purposes. This Administration and policymakers must be held accountable name by name for this mess which by destabilizing the Middle East impairs our own national security.

Historians being patient can wait 25 years for declassified documents but it would be useful to begin to identify the policy process and players on BHO Syria policy.

Can folks identify suggest some Syria policy makers' names and positions in USG such as at NSC, State, DOD? Can folks provide details on the policy process itself, key players, and so on?

[William R. Cumming]

Would it be cheaper to just privatize all of DoD and rent it out to those whose lobbyists are most successful in the Congress? Raw capitalism in the end? After all it worked for a while in the 15th Century Italian states!

Should there be a study post intervention of how many sides the USA funded in that exercise?

Are Chrisitan churches in the USA donating to the cause of Christians in Syria and the Coptics in Egypt?

If you want a view of the future google or search for today's Drudge Report, then scroll down to Der Spiegle link and read the featured story on Big Data and its use by State Department and IC and DoD!

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Hilarious! And, sadly, true.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You are not looking at it the right way.

Assorted Jihadists and other undesirables are going to Syria from these other countries like Southern Persian Gulf states and elswhere and getting themselves killed in Syria; helping the internal security of those states.

In the meantime, a Friend of Iran and an enemy of Israel is being wounded.

What is not to like here?

The Syrian population, regardless of their political or sectarioan orientation, are just collateral damage.

Jordan and Turkey are the two friendly states (to US) that are also being harmed - but then, again, they are rented and cannot complain.

[turcopolier]

babak

"Assorted Jihadists and other undesirables are going to Syria from these other countries like Southern Persian Gulf states and elsewhere and getting themselves killed in Syria; helping the internal security of those states. In the meantime, a Friend of Iran and an enemy of Israel is being wounded. What is not to like here?" Ah, the old bugaboo of the "hidden hand" rises again. well, if this were true, I would sign up to support a policy that would not bring on US intervention and have this result, but it is not true. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

I read that there are 4000 Saudi Nationals in Syria fighting that Assad government.

The Old Bugaboo, as you call it, sounds very plausible to me.

US was looking to wound Iran, Saudi Arabia was also looking to wound Iran and - as you have suggested - expand the Wahabi doctrines to the Levant, and Saudis had malcontents and the more testosterone-crazed one could be channeled to Syria to die conveniently while helping to wound Iran and spread Wahabi clap-trap.

Machiavelli would have been proud.

[turcopolier]

babak

There is no one in the USG clever enough to conceive and execute that ploy. If there were I would be all for it. you don't understand the massive bureaucratic obstacles that such a plan wold have to overcome. We ain't up to the job. pl

[David Habakkuk]

Babak Makkinejad,

You are a victim of the British.

Time was, when at least some of those who inflicted misfortunes on your country were both intelligent and educated. So, for example C.M. ‘Monty’ Woodhouse, who was MP for my home town, was a classical scholar who wrote an interesting short book on Dostoevsky. And you have yourself referred to the writings on comparative religion of R.C. Zaehner, who was also intimately involved with the machinations of MI6 in Iran.

In those days, to think in terms of a ‘hidden hand’ made some at least some kind of sense.

All that, however, is in the past. The notion that there is some kind of coherent Machiavellian strategy behind American – or indeed British, insofar as that matters – strategy in the Middle East is, to be blunt, bunkum.

The policies pursued actually involve making almost everything worse for everybody.

In particular, the obsession with Iran which – as you have correctly pointed out – underlies Western policy towards Syria – is not ultimately Machiavellian at all.

Floundering around, trying to make some kind of sense of it, I think of the way that my dog disintegrates into a kind of hysterical barking, when confronted by a cat who he feels – with some reason – is cheeking him.

To impute rational calculation to the unreasonable is commonly comforting, partly because it can make it easy for us to avoid confronting the unpredictability of the world. But it does not provide a proper basis for a – reasonably rational – policy.

[Jay]

Excellent! My thoughts exactly but concisely and beautifully stated.

[Fred]

Sounds like something someone said after 9-11 about Afghanistan. All those anti-US folks were going to get killed off fighting the USSR. Only they didn't.

[Fred]

Great, the mercenaries will keep us safe. It worked for the sovereigns, some of them anyway, of those Italian states. Thier citezens were subjects. We are not subjects of the US, at least not yet.

[David Habakkuk]

Fred,

Absolutely. Moreover, those that survive may end up both highly competent in certain forms of warfare, and seriously battle-hardened. Also, they may come out of these very brutal conflicts with 'no home but the struggle', so that, being no longer capable of settingly in civilian life, they look for new theatres in which to practice 'jihad'.

[FB Ali]

David,

I can sympathise with Babak. For those of us who come from countries that have been at the receiving end of such policies, it is quite difficult to accept that it is/was all the result of political floundering and bureaucratic inertia. In such countries it is usual to ascribe the cause of the various misfortunes that befall them to Machiavellian cunning and deep-seated conspiracies.