UN Daily Security Update Iraq - 6 May 2013

Download Daily Security Update_06 Mayl 2013

Comments

[505thPIR]

And the slow burning Sunni insurgency continues like an oxygen starved flame (much like the backdraft phenomenon with fires)just waiting for a burst of oxygen for a big ol explosion. The Baathists redux may ultimately be in position to harness this. Don't think the Awakening folks have forgotten AQIM so completely they are going to let it get a leading role again. When the door (aka circumstance) opens for the former, and breathes some life into em, look out. The Shia are also in a better position to "push-back". Syria may look like a minor scuffle in comparison.

[The Virginian]

The incidents noted in the report are part of a trend of increasing political violence since 2012. A sectarian-framed zero sum political game between Iraq's elite is being won tactically by PM Maliki, but with Iraq's sectarian-driven violence now exacerbated by the civil war in Syria, Maliki's tactical gains may not translate into strategic success (political survival at the top in charge of a cohesive country unit). The sectarian, communal and ethnic divides in Iraq continue to be played upon by those that see power as the ultimate goal - the contours of the new Iraq are still some ways from being defined with any sense of permanence.

[The Virginian]

Maliki needs to keep a watch on his enemies within the Shia block, as they pose an ongoing threat. Local election results give State of Law the overall edge, but there are indicators that ISCI and other groups have regained some of the ground lost in 2009. He will use tactical political deals to keep various foes at bay, but he can't take on multiple fronts simultaneously. Control over the military, the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) and specialized CT units, and use of a mix of coercive and patronage based tactics will remain central to Maliki's efforts. The other political elite also use similar tactics - Maliki's curent edge is the ability to harness much of the State's apparatus to support his objectives.