Bad news for Kerry/Obama on Syria

"... indicated that Hezbollah may be planning to expand its operations in support of the Syrian government. “I’m not sure if it will be to Qusayr or to Aleppo,” he said of his upcoming return, referring to Syria’s largest city. Rebels took over about half that city almost a year ago, before fighting settled into a stalemate. Ayoub said Hezbollah was also active in fighting around Damascus, something Iraqis who’ve recently returned from Syria have confirmed. Ayoub didn’t say how many Hezbollah fighters had taken part in the Qusayr action, but he said Hezbollah had assumed the leading role in the assault after an incident last week in which rockets fired by the Syrian military accidentally killed 18 Hezbollah fighters. He acknowledged that Hezbollah had lost about 100 men in the fighting but said that was far fewer than the Lebanese group had anticipated. “We had planned for as many as 1,000 martyrs,” he said. “Our enemy there has had time to dig in, and knows the terrain.” Ayoub said the operations taking place now amounted to “cleanup” and that only a few of Qusayr’s northern neighborhoods remained under rebel control. Those areas were taking longer to secure, he said, because rebels had booby-trapped them with bombs and had dug tunnels and other fortifications."  Mcclatchy

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"You  have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold'em..."

The US policy towards Syria is a total muddle, conceived in ignorance of the human facts on the  ground and motivated by "dogooderism" that thinks all the world is a graduate school seminar in which professors and students can re-design the fate of humanity to taste.

The hollowness of the policy of regime change in Syria is revealed by:

- Conrinued Russian support for the government, something the United States is powerless to stop

-Iran's unwavering support for the government

-Mixed attitudes in Israel toward the notion of the removal of the present government in Syria

-European incapacity in this matter.

-Opposition from the US JCS to any war in Syria including a "no fly zone."

-Opposition from the US public to any such war.

-Syrian/Hizbullah strength in the field.

-Complete disarray among the rebels.

Give it up Obama!  Give up regime change as a policy before that policy wrecks your 2nd term  .You have enough other problems without this one.  pl

 

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/29/192511/hezbollah-said-to-control-most.html#.UaeA7ZyymF9

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22698358

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20130529/181410473/Russia-May-Revise-Ban-on-Syrian-Arms-Exports---Minister.html

Comments

[jonst]

Give what up? dogooderism?" not on your life...it is our fate. We are knee deep in it now. I mean look around, rhetorically speaking, not directed at you Col, I know you "look around", all the time....but look around, who is going to stop these dogooders?, the batshit crazy McCain types? Rand Paul? You gonna put your money down on that young boy?

There is nobody to stop this. They have both dogooderism' and make money/career ism driving them...and that is a powerful brew...no, we're down. Awaiting our fate like Sleepwalkers.... like the title of a recent book.

[Alba Etie]

Col Lang
I truly believe that the climb down from regime change in Syria is happening right now. The BHO administration is acutely aware that there is zero domestic support for armed intervention in Syria. Full stop - its a no go in the Levant .

[D]

Police in Turkey have arrested Al-Nusra Front members and seized 2kg of Sarin according to Turkish newspapers
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/23398827.asp
FkDahl

[MRW]

Amen.

[The beaver]

I wonder if anyone has posted this article recently:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/f2d9bbc8-bdbc-11e2-890a-00144feab7de.html#axzz2UivdHKAc

Further more according to FT from the week before the above article was published:
Financial Times magazine published a report Friday that mentioned that Qatar has invested in Syrian insurgents, paying up to 3 billion dollars over the past two years to rebels.

“The tiny gas-rich state of Qatar has spent as much as $3 billion over the past two years supporting the rebellion in Syria, far exceeding any other government, but is now being nudged aside by Saudi Arabia as the prime source of arms to rebels,” the report stated.

Source: http://www.islamicinvitationturkey.com/2013/05/17/ft-qatar-pays-syria-mercenaries-50000-yearly/

[Basilisk]

I guess this is attributed to Lord Palmerstom:

"Therefore I say that it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

Regrettably, a nation needs to have a clear understanding of its "perpetual interests." I used to think we had that, but now I am less certain. The Syria situation relentlessly highlights the uncertainty. It's about that age-old question "cui bono?" Who benefits indeed? I don't think it is the kids sporting high tech prostheses. Is it somehow John McKain? How?

[Augustin L]

For those who can't speak french in essence the article talks about the creation of an orhtodox legion composed of eastern europeans, ukranians, romanians and russians headed for Syria. Many of the officers are veterans of the Chechen wars proficient in the use of anti-aircraft and other modern weapons systems. They've been ''advertising'' on the media throughout the orthodox world and the group will be headed by Sergei Razoumovski a veteran of Ukrainian intelligence. They expect to get transport to said theater of operation via the black sea fleet. http://avicennesy.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/les-europeens-de-lest-partent-en-croisade-contre-les-extremistes-en-syrie/

[twv]

Russian "reset", Iran, Libya, China.
Foreign policy from a part-time law lecturer/community organizer.
I'M more qualified than that and I'm NOT qualified.

[Eliot]

That S-300 battalion should be operational immediately. The Syrians have already gone through the training evolutions in Russia to prepare for it.

I'm curious, will the Russians release the Mig-29 SMTs that Syria purchased? The deal was supposedly frozen back in 2012.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Well yes indeed. He should drop the Syria regime change policy.

His first term foreign policy was nothing special and his "legacy" will no doubt be negative along with that of Hillary and Kerry.

Court historians, of course, will offer the usual slop.

The foreign policy establishment is saturated with hubris and delusion with propaganda handled by the press corps whores. This can be attributed in part to cultural decadence generally in the US and particularly in the leadership elite.

However, over 60 percent of Americans recently polled realistically reject troops on the ground in Syria. This is despite the war hysteria inside the Beltway and the pro-Israel owned and operated "news"-entertainment media.

Does anyone in Washington care about legacies? As little Bush says, that's for history and I will be dead...for him (as for Kerry and elite others) nothing but "Skull and Bones".

While doogooders and one-worlders undermine long term US national interests and security, our rivals, competitors, and enemies go about their business as usual.

[Alba Etie]

If the Turkish police have arrested two al Nursa front members with Sarin - where could they have gotten it ? Is 2 kilograms enough to undertake a 'false flag ' operation to force the West into an armed intervention in Syria - that is kill enough civilians then blame it on Assad ? I really do believe that there is no appetite for intervention in the Syrian Civil War in the West -including Turkey .

[Alba Etie]

Do we see any build up of military forces by the West for armed intervention ? Do we see an full spectrum information operation here in These United States for a Syrian intervention the way we did before going to Irak ? Do we see any concrete indicators that we are going to Syria ? I believe that the average Citizens of These United States will not tolerate another armed conflict in the Middle East- unless & until its demonstrably , plainly apparent that there exists a direct threat to our National Security. The Syrian Civil War is none of our affair , We the People know that - and so do our Elites . To paraphrase Keith Moon from my misspent but romantic youth " We won't get fooled again "

[Fred]

Perhaps the Turks decided they didn't want that 'false flag' operation done in thier country or the trail to lead back to them.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Also this:

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1479703

[jonst]

We might not get fooled again (to the limited extent we got fooled in the first place...a lot of people wanted the wars, they just forget now) but we might get something shoved into some orifice just the same. We will NOT see this coming, not the vast majority, if they get away with, and I am not saying automatically they will, for some of the reasons you spell out...but IF they get away with it...it will be slow and creeping escalation. Like the proverbial frog in the pot. They need more visuals...but make no mistake, the doogooders and make careers/money ers are on the march. And you be sure to show me exactly how often the "average citizen' gets what he or she wants these days.

There seems to be a ton of room and opportunity for all kinds of miscalculations here. And they are still looking for an opening to whack Iran....no, I think the dogooders have hit a rough patch...but they are not ultimately deterred by the desires of the average American. Far from it. I will be overjoyed to be proven wrong.

[D]

Libya is a likely source
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012_06/Libya_Sets_Date_to_Destroy_Chemical_Arms
FkDahl

[The beaver]

Last night on the MSM, it was mentioned that she went to live in Syria because of her "British" spouse. Mon oeil !!!

[Alba Etie]

Many , many more of us were opposed to the Irak illegal War of Aggression . In fact I daresay it was the majority of Americans ( perhaps slim -but majority nonetheless) who did not want us to go to Baghdad. I look forward to your being overjoyed - because we are not going to Syria.

[Edward Amame]

+1.

[jonst]

Yeah, I know, "many of us were opposed to the Irak illegal War of Aggression'... you got the slogan down...redundant as it is.

And very few people voted for Nixon in 72....I don't know he got elected. And by many counts today about 70 million people 'were at Woodstock. I know all about people's memories.

But I repeat, lets hope your right about Syria and the US.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, it is nuts.

[Alba Etie]

Snark as much as you like Jonst - we will not be going to Syria .

[turcopolier]

All

I propose the outlawry here of "snark" as a vulgar neologism to be replaced by "sarcasm, "irony," or the like. pl

[Tom in Texas]

COL Lang-
It is your blog (and a wonderful blog it is!) to run as you see fit. However, Wiktionary dates the first use of "snark" to the 19th Century (Etymology: snark +‎ -y; 1906, as “irritable”, from 1866 snark (“to snort”), by onomatopoeia. Compare Low German snarken, North Frisian snarke, Swedish snarka.[1]). (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/snarky)

Merriam-Webster also dates the first usage of "snarky" to 1906, but does not mention "snark": http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/snarky

Thanks for all you do! Your Syria posts alone are worth what meager contributions I can muster. (Heck, the general quality of commentary is worth more than I can muster).

[Alba Etie]

Very Well Col Lang - so noted.