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"Alas," etc.
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BTW. This is my birthday. I am celebrating many years of as yet undetected crime. pl
"As we have written previously, the only hope for an acceptable political settlement in Syria lies in an intervention that would decisively shift the balance of Syria’s war — through arms supplies to the rebels and airstrikes to eliminate the regime’s air power. If Mr. Obama is unwilling to take such steps, he ought also to eschew diplomacy that makes his administration appear foolish as well as weak." Washington Post Editorial Board
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Well there you have it. "... and airstrikes to eliminate the regime’s air power." So, after all the baloney about "no boots on the ground," "no direct US intervention," we have an honest admission by the neocons and Wilsonians at the Post that what they want is for Obama to order the air forces of the United States into action to destroy the present Syrian government.
They now recognize that he is not going to do that, and so they also acknowledge that diplomacy that consists of unlimited travel by the vain is pointless and humiliating. pl
"... indicated that Hezbollah may be planning to expand its operations in support of the Syrian government. “I’m not sure if it will be to Qusayr or to Aleppo,” he said of his upcoming return, referring to Syria’s largest city. Rebels took over about half that city almost a year ago, before fighting settled into a stalemate. Ayoub said Hezbollah was also active in fighting around Damascus, something Iraqis who’ve recently returned from Syria have confirmed. Ayoub didn’t say how many Hezbollah fighters had taken part in the Qusayr action, but he said Hezbollah had assumed the leading role in the assault after an incident last week in which rockets fired by the Syrian military accidentally killed 18 Hezbollah fighters. He acknowledged that Hezbollah had lost about 100 men in the fighting but said that was far fewer than the Lebanese group had anticipated. “We had planned for as many as 1,000 martyrs,” he said. “Our enemy there has had time to dig in, and knows the terrain.” Ayoub said the operations taking place now amounted to “cleanup” and that only a few of Qusayr’s northern neighborhoods remained under rebel control. Those areas were taking longer to secure, he said, because rebels had booby-trapped them with bombs and had dug tunnels and other fortifications." Mcclatchy
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"You have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold'em..."
The US policy towards Syria is a total muddle, conceived in ignorance of the human facts on the ground and motivated by "dogooderism" that thinks all the world is a graduate school seminar in which professors and students can re-design the fate of humanity to taste.
The hollowness of the policy of regime change in Syria is revealed by:
- Conrinued Russian support for the government, something the United States is powerless to stop
-Iran's unwavering support for the government
-Mixed attitudes in Israel toward the notion of the removal of the present government in Syria
-European incapacity in this matter.
-Opposition from the US JCS to any war in Syria including a "no fly zone."
-Opposition from the US public to any such war.
-Syrian/Hizbullah strength in the field.
-Complete disarray among the rebels.
Give it up Obama! Give up regime change as a policy before that policy wrecks your 2nd term .You have enough other problems without this one. pl
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/29/192511/hezbollah-said-to-control-most.html#.UaeA7ZyymF9
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22698358
"Assad's government, whose forces have been staging fierce offensives on rebel strongholds around Damascus and the border town of Qusair, has named representatives for the peace talks Washington and Moscow hope to convene in Geneva in June. But opposition political factions, let alone the rebel combatants over whom they wield scant control, remain paralysed by internal divisions even after six days of talks in Istanbul. The 60-member Syrian National Coalition has failed to agree to include more liberals in its ranks to the dismay of Western and some Arab backers keen to reduce the influence of Islamists. The disarray raises questions about the opposition's ability to agree any sort of inclusive transitional government and could strengthen Assad's hand before any peace talks. Western and Arab envoys sought to break the opposition deadlock which could even scupper the U.S.-Russian initiative. "Effectively, without an opposition overhaul there will not be a Geneva (conference)," a frustrated regional official in Istanbul said." Reuters
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What a great way to start WW3 this would be. Israel attacks Russian missile deliveries, kills Russians, Russians attack Israel... Presto! The Guns of July. Guess who woud lose the most in that deal. What the hell are we playing at? I listened to Senator Blumenthal of Connecticutt try to speak coherently about the Syria crisis this morning. He couldn't do it! All that came out of his mouth were platitudes and frequenty they were mutually contradictory platitudes.
And then there are the two Johns. McCain can't help himself. He has become a raving madman bent on war everywhere against anyone available. Kerry is just pathetic, a bumbling, conceited fool who thinks charm is the touchstone that will open all doors for him. pl
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE94Q07E20130528
Richard Sale has posted a new Story on the Athenaeum. pl
Includes download of the essay "Dear Hearts Across the Seas" by Pat Lang.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2013/05/memorial-day-2013.html
The media are saying that they can not understand why Lois Lerner was not "fired." I will try to explain to them the difference between their status and hers.
- They are solely the employees of some news organization. Their employment is subject only to the will of their employer and the terms of their contract.
- Lerner is a civil servant. Since the good old days of Chester A. Arthur, most federal civilian employees are careerists protected by law from arbitrary firing by political appointees. Without that protection the manning of the federal government would "turn-over" completely every time the White House was gained by a different party. That is what happened before Garfield was shot by a disappointed office seeker. In this system, as in the armed forces, personal status as a member resides in the individual, not in the particular job that he/she holds at a given time.
Lerner has been removed from the particular job that she held. She can only be removed from the civil service through regulations and laws that apply to her grade in the federal civil service.
If you are in the media, try to get that staight. pl
"... the fact that Lerner decided to plead the Fifth suggests that an “every man (or woman) for themselves” mentality may be taking over for those implicated in the IRS scandal. That’s trouble due to a simple reality: What’s good for Lois Lerner is not necessarily good for the broader Obama Administration. What’s best, politically speaking, for the White House is to have everyone singing off the same song book: We made mistakes. Those mistakes were the result of haste and bad decision-making. Partisanship didn’t enter into it. While that may also be best for Lerner at the moment, it might not always be. " Washpost
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I have asked Harper to write us something in depth concrening the present IRS revelations. In preparation for that I would say that you plead the fifth Amendment against the possibility of criminal self incrimination. If there was not a perceived threat of prosecution, there would not be a plea.
Therefore, one must conclude that Lerner is susceptible to an offer of immunity in return for her testimony before Ways and Means.
She is a career civil servant with more than thirty years service. The White House should fear her desire to be "home free." pl
"Rubio said in a statement that the committee “made real improvements to the bill” but that more work needs to be done. “We have an historic opportunity to end today’s de facto amnesty and modernize our immigration system to meet our 21st century needs,” Rubio said. “I remain optimistic that the Senate, by improving the bill through an open and deliberative floor debate, will seize this opportunity.” On Tuesday, the panel defeated multiple attempts to alter the pathway to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants living illegally in the country. The high-tech visa agreement hammered out by Schumer and Hatch was one of the last remaining pieces of unfinished business and was added to the underlying bill by a voice vote Tuesday afternoon. Schumer spent days working with Hatch, hoping that a deal could persuade the Utah senator to back the bill and boost the bipartisan momentum. “Many things that are there I like, some things I don’t like,” Schumer said." politico
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If the border can be protected from further illegal immigration, and the process of "pathing" is sufficiently onerous so that it cannot be said to be amnesty, then it may pass. pl
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/senate-immigration-bill-gang-of-eight-91644.html
"... by now everyone following the Syrian tragedy knows who most of them are. One knows that the Un-Free Syrian Cannibals, sorry, Army (FSA) is a ragged collection of warlords, gangsters and opportunists of every possible brand, intersecting with hardcore jihadis of the Jabhat al-Nusra kind (but also other al-Qaeda-linked or inspired outfits). It took Reuters months to finally admit that jihadis are running the show on the ground. [1] A "rebel" commander even complained to Reuters, "Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad." What he didn't say is that the real effective outfit is al-Qaeda-linked. Syria is now Militia Hell; much like Iraq in the mid-2000s, much like the Western-imposed, "liberated" Libyan failed state. This Afghanization/Somalization is a direct consequence of NATO-GCC-Israel axis interference. [2] So Assad is also right when he says the West is adding fuel to the fire, and is only interested in regime change, whatever the cost." Pepe Escobar
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"Asia Times" as a journal would not be considered to be my usual "fare" by anyone who knows me. Nevertheless, their view of the situation in Syria appears to reflect reality.
As Clifford Kiracofe has commented on this blog, the Syrian Civil War pits 20 million Syrians who do not wish to be ruled by a Sunni theocracy against tens of thousands of Sunni jihadis intent on creating that theocracy.
Among the supporters of the Syrian government; Iran, Russia, Hizbullah, Iraqi Shia volunteers, Syrian alawi militias and the Christian community in Syria.
On the other side we find; the Sunni Gulf monarchies, Turkey (paralysed by internal political conflict), the US (paralysed by deep opposition from the US public, JCS and IC to the idea of intervention), and NATO (without US participation incapable of intervention).
Given this alignment of forces it is curious that Obama persists in his policy of regime change. If this fails can Kerry go home to Ketchup heaven? pl
http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-200513.html
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-200513.html
"Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say. Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri - a shift which could extend Syria's conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes. The fighting has already cost 90,000 lives. The break-up of an important part of Syria's opposition, already splintered into hundreds of armed groups, worsens the dilemma faced by the West as it debates whether intervention to support the rebels will result in arms being placed in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. And the if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad "Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad," said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front. "It is disintegrating from within."" Reuters
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"The Syrian opposition is demanding access to arms before planned peace talks next month, amid a growing consensus that it may take a shift in the balance of power on the battlefield before any meaningful negotiations can take place. Khalid Saleh, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Coalition, said Thursday that his group is pushing for “serious arming” of the rebels ahead of the U.S.- and Russian-backed negotiations. His comments come as European nations consider linking the lifting of an E.U. arms embargo to the talks. Graphic A look at the Syrian uprising nearly two years later. Thousands of Syrians have died and President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, despite numerous calls by the international community for him to step down. Latest stories on Syria Fueled by war in Syria, resurgent sectarianism tests Iraqi government Abigail Hauslohner MAY 16 Iraqi Sunnis say the prospect of a regional power shift has emboldened them to confront their government. As Syrian refugees settle into life in camps, Turkey seeks long-term help Kevin Sullivan MAY 15 With its Syrian refugee population set to double this year, Ankara wants to resettle some in U.S. and Europe. U.N. ‘strongly’ condemns Syrian government attacks on civilians Colum Lynch MAY 15 The vote pits the U.S. and Russia against each other as they try to start talks between the two sides. Video allegedly depicting atrocity by Syrian rebel revives worries about aid Loveday Morris MAY 14 Gruesome footage is released as Kerry warns Assad that the U.S. is ready to boost help for rebel forces. Obama, Cameron voice limited hope about fate of Syria conference Karen DeYoung MAY 13 News of the conference came amid a White House debate leaning sharply toward providing arms to the rebels. Syria’s rebels split into hundreds of groups, Red Cross officials says Tom Miles MAY 13 Syria’s rebels are fragmented into hundreds of armed groups that control swathes of the north. Turkey’s Erdogan to meet with Obama amid unusual public friction between countries Kevin Sullivan MAY 13 The prime minister wants the U.S. to take a more aggressive stance toward the Syria crisis. Syrian President Bashar al- Assad’s forces have made gains on the ground in recent weeks, closing in on the strategic western city of Qusair with the help of fighters from Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah movement. On Thursday, they repelled a rebel attack on a prison in the northern city of Aleppo. Analysts and diplomats say that those gains may dim the chance of the regime taking part in substantive talks and that the opposition needs to be strengthened. Meanwhile, the opposition has jumped at the opportunity to leverage its long-standing demand for arms." Washpost
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In review:
The already effective jihadi Islamist domination of the "opposition" in Syria is here reported as shifting in the direction of direct AQII leadership of the movement. It should be understood that the agenda of the Islamist jihadis in Syria is not simply the removal of the present government. No, their agenda is for the abolition of the state of Syria as an impious western contrivance and its replacement by theocratic rule in the fom of religious rule which would revolutionize society as thoroughly as the Khmer Rouge sought to revolutionize Cambodia in a different cause.
At the same time it is now admitted by pro-"opposition" media and spokesmen that the "opposition" is losing ground in the war. This appears to be the result of; Syrian re-organization, increased training and use of Shabiha militias and the presence and assistance of Hizbullah, Iranian and Russian materiel and in some cases, advice. The BHO/Kerry team has proposed a conference on the war among the parties in order to facilitate the surrender of Assad's government. The rebel response is to demand that it be armed BEFORE they will agree to attend the conference. The BHO Administration may well agree to that since it favors the rebels.
Amazing. pl
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-syria-crisis-nusra-idUSBRE94G0FY20130517
"Everyone is treating the I.R.S. issue as a bigger deal, but the Justice Department scandal is worse. This was a sweeping intrusion that makes it hard for the press to do its job. Who is going to call a journalist to report wrongdoing knowing that at some future date, the government might feel perfectly free to track the phone records and hunt you down? I would have thought a dozen Justice Department officials would have risen up and splashily resigned when they learned of the scope of this invasion. Aren’t there some lawyers in the Justice Department, and, if so, did they go to law schools where the Constitution is left unassigned?" David Brooks
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Brooks has it right here. In the last years I have had occasion to watch the Justice Department increasingly behave not as a servant of the constitution but rather as a single minded instrument for obtaining convictions desired by the administration, and willing to lie, cheat and suborn witnesses in order to get them. In one case in which I was a witness, (now long settled) Justice Department lawyers with the support of an FBI agent changed the status of a character witness to that of a fact witness and then carefully abstained from informing the defeense of that change until after the defendant had been convicted and sent to prison. This change in status was accompanied by the promise of a fee to be paid to the witness after conviction of the accused. The amount of the fee was many times that allowed by federal guidelines. Several months elapsed before this malfeasance was discovered by the US Attorney for that district when the miscreants submitted a voucher for payent of the fee. In that period the convicted man had resided in prison. If you think that is an isolated case theink of the case of Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska.
And then we have the behvior and language of Erc Holder testifying before a House committee this week. His behavior was contemptuous and insulting and he should have been so cited. pl
Back in the Spring and Summer of 2011, the humanitarian interventionists inside the Obama Administration were riding high. President Obama put American military force behind the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya, on the grounds of preventing a humanitarian disaster in Benghazi. When Congress balked at the idea that he had brought the nation to war without even seeking tacit Congressional approval, President Obama issued an executive order creating an Atrocities Prevention Board inside the White House. Under the guise of preventing potential future atrocities, the President asserted the authority to wage preventive war. Several months later,he used a visit to the Holocaust Museum to announce the appointment of Samantha Power, a former protege of hedge-fund billionaire George Soros who never met a regime that she did not wish to change on "humanitarian" grounds as the head of the APB.
Since those halceon days, things have gone rapidly downhill for the Obama gang promoting R2P ("Responsibility to Protect"). The Benghazi "victims" of Qaddafi's alleged atrocities turned out to be a nasty bunch of Al Qaeda afficionados or outright members. The massive stockpiles of arms accumulated by Qaddafi during his decades in power went flying off in every direction, fueling murderous jihadist insurgencies throughout Africa; and no small quantity of those weapons wound up in the hands of the Syrian rebels--who themselves are riddled with Al Qaeda factions (the Nusra Front recently announced a marriage with Al Qaeda in Iraq).
It is now becoming more and more clear that the humanitarian interventions are to the liberal left what the neoconservatives are to the conservative right: faith-based interventionists who believe that the United States has a "moral" obligation to change regimes all over the globe if they don't neatly fit into the Western democratic camp. In an earlier time, during the heyday of the British Empire, such messianic interventionism was called for what it was: "The White Man's Burden." In today's politically correct world, the use of such direct language is out of the question. But the essence of the policy is identical, whether coming from the mouth of a humanitarian interventionist or a neocon.
Last Sunday, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates appeared on the blab shows and made some very pointed observations. He called for a complete re-assessment of the so-called "Arab Spring," preferring instead to call it the "Arab Revolution." In the last 250 years, he observed, the only revolution that genuinely succeeded was the American Revolution. The idea that the United States can step into the middle of a revolutionary process and set a fixed outcome is a big mistake, Gates warned. For the first time, Gates essentially acknowledged that he quit the Obama Administration because he was strongly opposed to the Libyan operation. A no-fly zone, he explained, is an act of war, and once a war starts, it does not stop. He warned in equally strong language against a no-fly zone in Syria.
Gates was speaking for a growing chorus of "realists" at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in the Intelligence Community and the diplomatic corps, who thoroughly reject the axioms of humanitarian interventionism. The military will be paying the price of two simultaneous long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for years to come, and the prospect of yet another war in yet another Muslim country, Syria, has provoked a fire-storm of opposition.
The good news in all of this is that the humanitarian interventionist mafia inside the Obama Administration has been significantly pushed back. There is nothing at all humanitarian about turning Libya into a failed state, held hostage by Al Qaeda-friendly forces. The death of Ambassador Chris Stevens at the hands of Ansar al-Sharia, a spin-off of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb on September 11, 2012, was a body blow to the R2P crowd, from which I hope they never recover. And now, Ambassador Susan Rice, one of the leading humanitarian interventionists in the current administration, is under fierce attack for her talking points delivery days after the 9/11/12 attack.
For his part, President Obama and his inner circle still insist that Susan Rice is in line to be the next National Security Advisor when Thomas Donilon steps down later this year. That appointment should be nixed by the next round of Benghazi whistle-blowers and document leaks.
Purging the R2P advocates would be a good first step. Discrediting the whole concept of humanitarian interventionism is even more vital.
When the Atrocities Prevention Board was first announced by President Obama, it was also revealed that White House staffers in the R2P camp had already prepared a preliminary list of countries in which it was likely that regimes would carry out future atrocities against their people. The list at that time already was more than 80 countries. It would appear that, on behalf of protecting humanity, these zealots would have us enter a century of permanent war and permanent revolution.
'Fogle had been trying to recruit a Russian intelligence services officer responsible for fighting Islamist terrorists in Russia's Caucasus region, the Federal Security Service said. The agency, known as the FSB, also alleged he had been carrying a Russian-language recruitment note explaining how to set up a secure Gmail account and promising "up to $1 million a year with the promise of additional bonuses" for information. The State Department confirmed that a U.S. diplomat had been detained and released by Russian authorities but declined to say for which agency Mr. Fogle worked. U.S. State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said only that he was "an American staff member of the embassy." Pressed to say if that meant he may not be a foreign-service officer, he said, "right, I just don't have any more information, one way or another."" WSJ
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Ho Hum. This is a game that the US and Russia have played with each other for a long time. There is no danger to bi-lateral relations and no admissions are expected. Nor should any be made.
Why does this "spying" continue? Simple - Countries cannot be trusted to tell the truth in negotiations. Therefore, a prudent course of action is to find people on the other side of issues who will tell you what your negotiating "partners" really intend. We should continue to do this kind of thing but we should do it better.
Wigs, concealment devices, a letter of instruction for an "asset" who might be recruited in a meeting, this is absurd. Why not hang a sign around your neck? The "Game of Nations" must be played by adults, not by post-adolescent fantasists who want theatrical "dress-up" as part of their lives.
Presuming that we know who this fellow worked for I must say that I remember an occasion when his group wanted to bring someone to my home overseas in disguise. I told them that this was unacceptable. The meeting went smoothly.
However, if they are still "into" this kind of thing I might suggest this costume.
pl
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323716304578482660056321772.html
"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry issued a stern warning Tuesday to Syria’s government, saying that new help will be given to opposition forces should President Bashar Assad’s regime decide to back out of upcoming negotiations aimed at ending Syria’s two-year war. Kerry said he has every expectation that both sides in the conflict, which has left more than 70,000 dead, will participate in an international conference to negotiate a peaceful transition in Syria. The conference, which Kerry said likely will be held in early June, is noteworthy because it will be endorsed by both the U.S. and Russia, which are on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict." washpost
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"Time said it had talked by Skype with the fighter in the video, whom it identified as Khalid al-Hamad. Hamad claimed he was driven to the gruesome acts by footage on the dead soldier's cellphone, showing him "humiliating" a naked woman and her two daughters. The US news weekly said Hamad described participating in other acts of mutilating regime forces, including militiamen known as shabiha. "I have another video clip... In the clip I am sawing another shabiha with a saw. The saw we use to cut trees. I sawed him in small pieces and large ones," Time quoted him as saying. The magazine said Hamad, a Sunni like much of the opposition fighting against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, expressed hatred of members of the leader's Alawite sect. "Hopefully we will slaughter all of them," he told the magazine. "They were the ones who killed our children in Baba Amr and raped our women," he said, referring to a neighbourhood of the central city of Homs. The video, in which Hamad leans over a uniformed body, cuts out organs and then holds one up to his mouth, has prompted an outcry around the world." Daily Star
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1 - It is official US policy to depose Bashar Assad. It is announced that the purpose of the Kerry conference on Syria is to arrange Assad's departure and surrender of power. Assad knows what wil happen to him and his after he does that. The examples in Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq are unavoidable demonstrations. It is clear that the US had a similar fate in mind for the king of Bahrein. It is also clear that the citizenry of the US will not accept direct US military intervention in Syria and that the French and British have not the means for that. Therefore, one should ask what the incentives are for Assad to negotiate his own doom. Answer - None
2- "Hopefully we will slaughter all of them," he told the magazine. This fellow is typical of the most effective fighters against the Assad government and the existence of the "impious" state of Syria. The Alawis, the Shia, and the Christians all know that the fall of Assad's government would be followed by a civil war among the winners and that this man's pals are the most likely to triumph. Why? Answer - They ARE "the meanest mothers in the valley." In that knowledge the coalition supporting Assad will fight to the end. pl
"The New Market Day ceremony is an annual observance held at VMI in front of the monument "Virginia Mourning Her Dead," a memorial to the New Market Corps, sculpted by Sir Moses Ezekiel, VMI Class of 1866, who was a veteran of the battle. The names of all of the cadets in the Corps of 1864 are inscribed on the monument, and six of the ten cadets who died in the battle are buried at this site. The ceremony features the roll call of the names of the cadets who lost their lives at New Market, a custom that began in 1887. As the name of each cadet who died is called, a representative from the same company in the modern Corps answers, "Died on the Field of Honor, Sir." A 3-volley salute is then carried out by a cadet honor guard, followed by Taps played over the parade ground. To culminate this ceremony, the entire Corps passes Virginia Mourning Her Dead in review." wiki
W. Patrick Lang Class of 1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_New_Market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Military_Institute
"A court in Saudi Arabia has sentenced two men to lashes and prison terms for converting a woman to Christianity and helping her flee the conservative Islamic kingdom, the Saudi Gazette reported on Monday. A Lebanese man was sentenced to six years in prison and 300 lashes for converting the woman, while a Saudi man was sentenced to two years and 200 lashes for aiding her escape abroad, the English-language daily said. It added that the pair had challenged the verdict and would appeal. A spokesman at the justice ministry could not immediately be reached for comment. In Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, it is against the law for Muslims to abandon their faith, a practice known as apostasy. Proselytising for other religions or practicing them openly is also illegal." Yahoo News
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These are our allies in Syria. pl
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-punish-men-over-christian-woman-convert-081856796.html
"... analysts say there is little doubt that the pendulum is now swinging in favor of Assad, potentially putting him in a strong position to set terms if the negotiations with the opposition that the Obama administration and Russia last week agreed to sponsor eventually take place. “If things continue as they are, the government will certainly be the party that has the major advantage” in any talks, said Charles Lister of the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “If we press pause on where we are today, it is clear the insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime.” Pro-Assad analysts credit a major restructuring of government forces that has better equipped them to confront the insurgency. The ranks of the conventional Syrian army — weary, depleted and demoralized by defections, casualties and more than a year of continuous fighting — are being swelled by the deployment of some 60,000 militia irregulars trained at least in part by Hezbollah and Iranian advisers." Washpost
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Well, well well, Does this mean that the forces of R2P do not inevitably triumph? I have been in attendance at various Washngton meetings at which the mouthpieces of; WINEP, AEI, The Institute for the Study of War (Kagan/Nuland neocon tool), the Syrian Rebels, etc. all proclaimed that "history was on their side" and that the Assad government would soon fall to be replaced by a liberal, multi-confessional blah-blah, etc. The IDFGeneral Staff does not share this view. They dread the emergence of a jihadi run theocracy in what is now Syria.
Fouad Ajami, that learned man (he who may not be questioned), opines in his oped piece cited below that the great Syrian liberalization could take place, might take place, is to be hoped for, etc. I would remind this sainted person that hope is not a fitting basis for policy and that in fact the US has no ability whatever to determine the political outcome in Syria unless we want to do another major military intervention. All the baloney in the world about the CIA or SF sneaking around, training people or dropping bags of money out of helicopters (my experience in SE Asia and other places) will not make the Syrians obey the US. I am a UW trained and experienced SF officer and I am here to tell you that winning wars and political outcomes that come from wars require real people with real guns who put themslves in real jeopardy.
What should the US do? We should mind our own business.
pl
"Protesters that helped bring down the old government adopted the slogan: “Bread, freedom and social justice!” So when Mohammed Morsi came to power in June on promises of economic and political reform, as well as and help for the poorest, many thought their lot would improve. But instead of getting better, the economy has stagnated, the country’s currency lost much of its value and inflation bumped up food prices. While the government subsidizes basic types of bread, other staples are becoming more expensive: Kidney bean prices grew by nearly 24 percent in the year to March, onions were up 12 percent, and tomatoes 10.1 percent, according to Egypt Independent newspaper." NBC News
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Happy days on the Nile!
The hated dictator is gone. No? well, no matter he is back on trial and he can be tried however many times required to achieve an execution.
The Egyptian ecomonmy is usually invisible in part. This results from a total lack of civic mindednaess on the part of many Egyptians when it come to things like paying taxes and doing business "transparently." I used to do business in Egypt and I have some idea of what I write, but this level of negative "progress" is unusual.
We are still subsidizing Egypt? Why?
Mursi is loading up his cabinet with yet more Islamists of the various "tribes." He seeks to "reform" the judiciary to make it more compatible with his notions of Islamicness. Tourism has gone down the drain from foreign fear of violence. Foreign investment is a nearly forgotten mempry of the bad old days of semi-secular government.
What happened to the Mursi that we were assured, was basically an American living in Egypt? Why is the US propping this man up? Do we think he is our friend? Surely not even the naif Kerry thinks that. What? He does? Oh, sorry? pl
"Ohio is one of 38 states to have a fetal homicide law on the books, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The law in Ohio makes it a crime to murder a person "who is or was carried in the womb of another."
The state's fetal homicide law was used in 2011 against Dominic Holt-Reid who tried to force his girlfriend to get an abortion at gunpoint in Ohio. Holt-Reid pleaded guilty to an attempted murder charge and is serving 13 years in prison.
The most high-profile fetal homicide trial in the United States occurred in 2004, when Scott Peterson was convicted of murdering his pregnant wife and unborn son and sentenced to death in California.
On Thursday, Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Timothy McGinty, who has jurisdiction over all felony cases for Cleveland, said he intends to seek aggravated murder charges against Castro once the case is formally transferred to his office. Aggravated murder charges could carry the death penalty." Yahhat i can only point out the oo News
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The depth of my contempt and loathing for Ariel Castro is profound. I hope the state of Ohio prosecutes him for everything they find feasible, including the fetal murder charge.
Having said that, I feel I must point to what appears to me to be a logical (but apparently not legal) conflict between Ohio's apparent concession of "human being" status to an unborn but living fetus and my perception of the position of orgnizations like NARAL who maintain that a living fetus is not a human being and that it can be disposed of by the mother up to the moment of birth if she wishes to do so.
Thereafter, according to the law in many places, the newborn becomes a living human being and the act of killing it becomes homicide.
Are there not logical inconsistencies in these "rules?"
I am sure that groups like NOW and NARAL wish to see Castro punished, but do they accept Ohio's definition of an unborn child as human? pl
http://news.yahoo.com/murder-case-against-cleveland-kidnapping-suspect-tough-prove-144332390.html
"Russian officials say they are not insisting on the survival of Assad, but they note that the Geneva accord says the fate of his government is to be decided by Syrians in negotiations. The secretary of State's comments in Rome come as reports surfaced that Israel had warned the United States that Russia was about to complete the sale of advanced, S-300 ground-to-air missile batteries to Syria. Kerry called the missile sales "potentially destabilizing," but his criticism of Moscow was muted at a time when the two nations were cooperating in the effort to jump-start peace talks. "I think we've made it crystal clear that we would prefer that Russia was not supplying assistance" to Syria, Kerry said. "That is on record; that hasn't changed." Israeli officials declined to comment Thursday on the report of new Russian missile shipments, but Israel has long been concerned about Russia's weapons sales to Syria. Analysts said Syria wants the missiles in part to defend against Israeli airstrikes. Since January, Israel has launched three air attacks against Syrian weapons stockpiles that it said were earmarked for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah." LA Times
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Wow! I have come to think that diplomacy is too important to be left to the State Department. Both this fellow and HC thought it their role to wander the earth directing future history while "the Department" concentrates on important things like keeping the WH happy at all cost.
Why does this man think that the Syrian Government and/or the various rebel factions care what he thinks about anything? We have "made it clear to Russia that we wish they were not supplying the Syrian armed forces?" Why would Russia care about our wishes. What leverage do we have? Actually, they are doing us a great kindness by letting us use their railroads for re-supply and to evacuate our equipment from Afghanistan.
Does Kerry imagine that if he looks sad and unhappy Putin will give him what he wants?
I think itis time for a true special envoy to be appointed. I nominate Zbig. pl
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-kerry-syria-20130510,0,2669751.story
"On 17 April, government forces breached a six-month rebel blockade in Wadi al-Deif, near Idlib. Heavy fighting has been reported around the town of Babuleen after government troops outflanked weakened rebel positions with troops now attempting to secure control of a main highway leading to Aleppo. The break in the siege also allowed government forces resupply two major military bases in the region which had been relying on sporadic airdrops. A spokesperson for the SOHR said that at least 50 rebel fighters had been killed or are now missing following the clashes.[266]
On 18 April, the FSA took control of Al-Dab'a Air Base near the city of al-Qusayr.[267] The base had no aircraft and was being used primarily to garrison ground troops. Meanwhile, the Syrian Army took control over the town of Abel. The SOHR director described the Army takeover of the town by saying that it will hamper rebel movements between al-Qusayr and Homs city. According to him, the capture of the airport would have relieved the pressure on the rebels in the area, but their loss of Abel made the situation more complicated.[268][269] 21 rebel fighters, including one commander, were killed during the fighting for Abel.[270] The same day, rebels also reportedly assassinated Ali Ballan, who was head of public relations at the Ministry of Social Affairs and a member of Syria's relief agency, in a restaurant at Mazzeh district in Damascus. Syria's state news agency reported that he had been killed by "gunmen".[271]
Continue reading ""War of attrition (April 2013 – present)" wiki" »
"Gun crime has plunged in the United States since its peak in the middle of the 1990s, including gun killings, assaults, robberies and other crimes, two new studies of government data show.
Yet few Americans are aware of the dramatic drop, and more than half believe gun crime has risen, according to a newly released survey by the Pew Research Center.
In less than two decades, the gun murder rate has been nearly cut in half. Other gun crimes fell even more sharply, paralleling a broader drop in violent crimes committed with or without guns. Violent crime dropped steeply during the 1990s and has fallen less dramatically since the turn of the millennium.
The number of gun killings dropped 39% between 1993 and 2011, the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported in a separate report released Tuesday. Gun crimes that weren’t fatal fell by 69%. However, guns still remain the most common murder weapon in the United States, the report noted. Between 1993 and 2011, more than two out of three murders in the U.S. were carried out with guns, the Bureau of Justice Statistics found." LA Times
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I betcha you won't hear much about this in the corporate media. None of the statistice support the anti-gun proposed legislation. According to DOJ, the victims and the perps of gun homicide are everwhelmingly male, Black and between the ages 0f 18-24. Very, very few of the weapons involved were other than handguns and hardly any were bought at gun shows. pl
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4616
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-gun-crimes-pew-report-20130507,0,3022693.story
BHO is busy putting more nails in the lid of the future of his adminstration.
Today he has Kerry in Moscow seeking to "jawbone" Putin into abandoning his Syrian client. Putin has no reason to do that and the effort will fail. This will weaken the BHO Administration.
DoD released a report today that shows that reported sexual assaults in the armed forces rose by a third in number since 2010. BHO's reaction was visible anger and threats of various kind. I am in favor of maximum action against people who perpetrate such crimes, but BHO's confidence in his fixed idea that human behavior is easily modified by government fiat is misplaced. The armed forces reflect society. US society today is much more loose about personal conduct than it was a generation ago. Gender roles and rules are scorned as a basis for organizing society. Gays are a protected minority. All rules concerning sex are falling by the side of the road in the military as in the larger society. It will be saidby some that these problems are like those of the Blacks in the US military in the long ago. Well, maybe so, but it took a hell of a long time to make a reality of the changes made by Truman in 1952. BHO is a social engineer. This is a difficult engineering problem.
Immigration "reform" will probably fail in the legislative process. The left, the right and the Latino activists are united in one thing. They don't like the proposed law. More failure.
The anti-gunners are busy convincing themselves that if Harry Reid will put Manchin-Toomey up for a vote one more time.... "After all. It is just common sense." Obama wants that vote.
Good Luck pl
"Energy resources that can be harvested in space for the benefit of Earth include helium-3 that occurs in abundance on both the Moon and asteroids and is ideal for new small fusion plants, as well as solar energy that can be collected and transmitted in concentrated form to Earth. Hydrocarbons, helium, hydrogen, and volatiles in the solar system are important for human exploration and habitation because they will provide essential high-energy, high-density fuels and feedstock for off-world manufactured goods and materials for construction. Metals, platinum-group elements, rare earth elements, and other volatiles, like H, H2O, and carbon compounds, are abundant on asteroids, many of which are relatively accessible from Earth. We could even use the asteroids that come too close as a way to remove them as dangers since we’re going to have to deal with them anyway." Forbes
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What a great idea! pl
"Testimony from victims of the conflict in Syria suggests rebels have used the nerve gas agent, sarin, according to a leading United Nations investigator. Carla Del Ponte told Swiss TV that there were "strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof". Ms Del Ponte did not rule out the possibility that government forces might also have used chemical weapons, but said she had not seen evidence. " BBC
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The interesting thing in this is the question of where the rebels got Sarin nerve gas. They may have captured it. They may have bought it from some traitor in the Syrian armed forces.
And then there is the issue of rebel violation of an international convention against tthe use of deadly chemical weapons.
And then there is the possession of these really deadly materials by a rebel coalition that is dominated by Sunni jihadis.
Israel has reason to be worried about Shia Hizbullah's HE rocket and missile weapons. Perhaps they should be equally concerned about the possible emergence of a sunni jihadi emirate on their northern border if and when the Assad government falls. pl
"A series of strikes on a military facility just outside Damascus last night has been widely attributed to Israel, which would make it the second Israeli attack on Syria in less than 48 hours and the third this year. Among the reported targets of the two latest attacks were consignments of Iranian Fateh-110 missiles reportedly intended for Hezbollah, which would allow the Syrian ally to launch precise attacks on Israeli targets such as Ben Gurion Airport or the defense ministry in Tel Aviv from launch pads as far north as central Lebanon. Israel has stated that it will not allow “game-changing” weapons systems to fall into Hezbollah’s hands. But Hezbollah is believed to have acquired by 2009 a Syrian-engineered version of the Fateh-110, known as the M600. Both Syrian and Iranian versions carry a 1,100-pound warhead and have a range of some 150 miles. The M600 reportedly has a basic guidance system that allows it to strike within 500 yards of its target at maximum range, enabling more accurate strikes than Hezbollah’s other long-range missiles afford." CSM
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I am puzzled by Israel's actions. The first air strike was evidently against weapons in transit from Jamraya to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
That, for me,was a comprehensible military action for the purpose of denying Israel's enemy a shipment of advanced missiles of the M600 variety.
This latest strike or set of strikes was against facilities that are virtually in Damascus itself. Mount Qasiun overlooks the city and the targets seem to have been in the valley behind the mountain. I have eaten in several very civilian restaurants on the side that faces the town. To strike this close to the capital of Syria is to invite escalation.
It has been my understanding that the IDF did not favor fostering the victory of the Islamist dominatated rebels. Does this set of attacks represent an assertion by the Natanyahu government of greater control of IDF actions? pl
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0505/Israeli-attacks-inside-Syria-risks-widening-war
I see that my offhand comments about World War II got all the dogs barking. There is a good book by Liddell Hart, the author of Strategy who also did a book, The Other Side of the Hill in which Field Marshall von Rundstedt states that he was surprised that the US didn’t invade France in 1943, not 1944, after Germany had occupied the rest of France in 1943. “I thought you would take advantage of this extensive stretching of our resources,” he said. Can anyone imagine what that invasion would have done to the future of Eastern Europe, if the invasion had been tried a year earlier? Chester Wilmont did a whole book expressing his intense disappointment that the invasion wasn’t tried earlier. At least that is my best recollection of it. Time always matters in war, especially in a war when the future of the continent was going to be decided by the movement of armies. Sale
"As the Obama administration debates belatedly arming the Syrian opposition, military analysts are arriving at an uncomfortable conclusion: the U.S. can’t hand the rebels guns or rockets and expect them to topple dictator Bashar Assad. In fact, it may never happen. Yes, the U.S. can provide lots of hardware, from shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to communications systems to armored vehicles. That military gear can prolong the conflict, preventing dictator Bashar Assad from crushing the rebels. It is unlikely to tip the balance of the war toward the rebels so they can decisively overthrow Assad. Obama is considering a range of weaponry to the rebels, as described in the Washington Post, including surface-to-air missiles. The idea would be to ship them the weapons, bolster their war effort, and watch them topple the blood-soaked dictator — without a deeper U.S. military commitment. Except that few strategists consider that realistic. Assad has a variety of advantages — an adaptive military estimated at over 50,000; complete air superiority; chemical weapons — that he will retain even if Obama opens a new arms pipeline. Overcoming those advantages means getting, at the least, U.S. and allied airpower involved — a step the Obama administration, and especially the military, want to avoid. Especially since it might involve shooting down Iranian planes, a fateful step." Ackerman
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I have been trying to tell people this for years now. The Syrian rebels are not going to be able to overthrow the Syrian government no matter what we give them.
Why?
They are a rabble of bits and pieces of various movements, many of them Sunni Islamic jihadist catspaws for Saudi Arabia who are interested in nothing but creating an Islamic emirate in the territory that is now the Syrian Arab Republic.
The government's supporters are Alawi, Shia, Sunni and Christian. This is a majority coalition.
Iran and Russia support Syria both politically and in terms of materiel
I have said before on SST that IMO the Syrian rebellion is the product of Saudi religious irredentism in the Levant. Some reject that idea saying that there are too few Sunnis in these countries for them to rule for long. This is a profoundly ahistoric POV. Sunni minorities ruled these countries for centuries and they could do it again with enough Gulf money behind them. pl
"I was astonished to find out recently that the population of Auschwitz in 1944 was 80 percent gentiles. Of course, as I stared at the page, the horror gradually dawned me – that by then almost all of the Jews from Europe had been gassed, leaving only the gentiles.
You cannot overstate the horror what the Jews suffered. Most of the Jews carted off by the Nazis were highly educated: they were lawyers, doctors, teachers, technicians, scholars who were used to a high degree of civilization, schooled in courtesy, politeness, tolerance, generosity, and earnest and sincere in giving of sympathy to those who most needed it." Sale
The Place Beyond the Pines. Directed by: Derek Cianfrance (pronounced chamfer) and written by his own self, he, too. Starring: Ryan Gosling, Bradley Cooper, Eva (woof!) Mendes, Ray Liotta, Mahershala Ali (Who?), Ben Mendelsohn (Who?), coupla sulky adolescent ac-toors, vulpine and sinuous-lipped, registering (Hollywood-grade) sulky adolescence. Remember what Dr. Spock said: "If you get your idiot kid a flockin' haircut, he's got a better chance of not grow up to be a bonehead." You can look that up. Proof positive: One of these teens gets tonsured and strides smiling into sunlit asphodel while t'other slinks shaggy off into shadow and bitterness.
There needs be a special ring of Inferno for whosomever take first-class movie idols, especially more than one at a time, and turn an execrable, precious, overwrought fil-um out of their collaboration, ring whose population would swell likewise also too by the number of bleating, sanctimonious critics who find something heavy out of incomprehensibility, opacity, fog, sophistry, pretentiousness. The director of the recent film RED (Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren, Morgan Freeman, John Malkovich) is currently, for instance, warming up a bench Down There for this guy Cianfrance who twice now has launched Ryan Gosling as a wordless marginal into failed domesticity (Blue Valentine, now Pines). Evidence, by the bye, that Gosling is a capable wordless marginal you can find in Drive, sequel and epigone to a number of "driven" flicks, notably Drive (Ryan O'Neal in a rare virtuosity piece), The Last Run (George C. Scott, when he was, playing--oddly enough--when he was), and lately, infused with adrenaline, the Transporter triptych (Jason Statham). Likewise Bradley Cooper has embarked on a couple of play-against-type ac-toor roles, for which he draws moos of admiration and Oscar (Tm) nominations: crazy and retarded always crowd-pleasers (one recalls Downey Jr's riff in Tropical Thunder on ac-toors who snag critical reviews for playing variously partial or "full ree-tards," in the phrase of art, though you risk the enmity of the anti-defamation league in either case). This flick, if I have it right, might be the first one in which he plays shaven.
Every morn and every night
Some are born to sweet delight;
Every night and every morn
Some to misery are born.
Some are born to sweet delight;
Some are born to endless night.
Continue reading ""The Place Beyond the Pines." A review by Alan farrell" »
1- The Bloombergians sent a "patrol" into the Granite State to assail Kelly Ayotte in her strongholds. This AM the Mikaites with their kaffee klatch hangers-on are rejoicing in the "turn of the tide." They beleive that the devil worshipping senators who voted against Manchin-Toomey are doomed. Well, maybe. Or maybe people in the "raided" states will develop resentments peculair to these operations. Even the transplanted massholes in the deep south of NH may resent this.
2- The Feds have busted Tsarnaev's three roommates. Interesting. They are going to pay a high price for their group solidarity. Wait unil they meet "bubba" in the Big House. I said early on here that student groupings should be looked at. Kids hat age are a walking mass of big "T" with nary a whole brain among them. It actually did not occur to me that they would be so stupid as to do this in the metro area where they lived.
3 - Guantanamo is in the news again. Let's not forget that some of the prisoners are really dangerous and eager to take up arms again. Even if they close that resort on the Caribbean, that group can't be tried and can't be released. the evidence against them was contaminated by treating them as though they were PWs early on. PWs are not mirandized because PWs are not subject to trial for their actions except under exceptional circumstances. No American court whether civilian or military will admit statements made at that time as evidence.
4- The R2P crowd are still hard at it trying to bulldoze BHO into what would become an open ended intervention in Syria. Polls indicate that the US public (62%) believe we have no responsibility for civil war in that country, They are correct. The rebels are the enemies of the US, Get it? Listen to the exchange bewteen the rebel activist Jouejati and Joshua Landis on the Newshour a couple of nights ago. pl
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