PPT on CENTCOM's future. CSIS

The "Burke Chair" PPT on the future of the CENTCOM AOR.  pl 

 http://csis.org/files/publication/130304_challenges_opportunities_centcom_aor.pdf

 

Comments

[Norbert M. Salamon]

I can not read past page 34, and the file disappears from download - due to error?

[turcopolier]

NMS

Try it now. pl

[The Twisted Genius]

So, I gather Israel is just a peaceable kingdom of unicorns, rainbows and glitter... with an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Hard to be sure though. Israel was oddly left off every statistical chart. Are relations with Israel reserved for the NCA and not to be mentioned by a mere COCOM? Sounds like a "he who cannot be named" scenario.

[bth]

That is an extraordinary presentation

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, it should have been sub-titled: "Or Why Iran has to be a nuclear-armed state."

Extraordinarily foolish.

[Babak Makkinejad]

One of the fantasies of this presentation is that GCC states will fight against Iran; with or without Pakistani mercenaries (pilots etc.)

The reality is that GCC states, Saudi Arabia and Israel would fight Iran to the last American.

[Walrus]

Failed to mention the critical resource to be fought over- fresh water.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Lots of bells and whistles from Tony.

Meanwhile speaking of CENTCOM, more detail on WH/NSC management of the region:

"Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Philip Gordon will be taking over the former Dennis Ross “Central Region” portfolio on Obama’s National Security Staff, the Back Channel has confirmed.

Gordon will have the title of NSS senior director for the Central Region–roughly but not entirely parallel to the military’s Central Command region–with senior directors for the Middle East/North Africa, Persian Gulf, and part of South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, but not India) reporting to him."
Read more: http://backchannel.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/02/4461/appointments-philip-gordon-to-white-house-jake-sullivan-to-ovp/#ixzz2MfZVj4Xp

[William R. Cumming]

Admittedly a hurried review and largely ignorant of the Centcom AOR I would and do argue that just based on the slides the AOR for various unified commands make almost no sense.

[Norbert M. Salamon]

It is notable that this analysis misses a few crucial points: what is the foreseeable damage to hydrocarbon sources and or water intake sources [notably SA uses 4.5 million barrels of seawater just to supply the need for water flooding their greatest reservoir] all over the Persian Gulf area.

For sure the Iranian production will be nullified, with great negative effect on Turkey, Afghanistan, China and India etc; probably the electrical generation/high voltage transmission lines would be damaged with dire consequences for Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkistan.

It is also notable that there was no mention of any USa/Israeli losses, whether for the armed forces, or as the copnsequence of the war effort [economic].

For all intents and purposes this scenario is hardly different from the notions expressed by the chickenhawks of the Isreal Firsters: destroy Iran [for no other reason than that they do not follow USA/Israeli orders] and everything wil be hanky-dory.

[Fred]

Yes, all the buzz words, threats all over capped off on pages 108-9 with "Kaboom!" Israeli Nuclear Strike of Iran's Nuclear Facility.(Low yield, of course). I found the write up of Iran’s Air Force interesting. Where have they managed to get spare parts for F-4D/E’s and F-14’s that were sold and delivered to them prior to 1979? Are they really 69% combat ready? That’s a joke, right?

It seems to me nuclear armed Israel with ICBMs to carry their strategic weapons is destabilizing the region. Still not a mention of the collective punishment of the people of Palestine, but they’re a conquered people and therefor of no concern to the US or our allies.

[Charles I]

Sure, but to be fair they were included in the "Low-Yield Israeli Nuclear Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities" graphic on p. 79 including a nice chart on weapon size, crater depth, declining PSI shockwave radii.

[Charles I]

It is truly mind-boggling. From the title and the analysis of relative strategic strengths, pretty well any target not your equal can be an opportunity. Oh David. Oh Goliath.

[Fred]

What is missing is a discussion of what is actually in the US national interest. This comes off as just another hit piece on Iran. Did you see his take on population growth? How about this line (page 16):

"Broad pressure on agriculture at time need economies ofscale and capital – not more farmers."

So they have too many mouths to feed so his solution is capital investment? Just what are those 'not more farmers' going to do, join the Salvation Army?

The real question is how do I get one of these think tank jobs? Since everyone is thinking alike it ought to be time for someone to think differently. I'd sure like to know what it pays.

[Norbert M. Salamon]

thank you for your reply, I could not have expressed so clearly as you did the essence of your firs tparagraph

[William R. Cumming]

So is CENTCOM now Cordesman's speciality or is the whole world still his oyster?