Obama ME Scorecard - so far.

So far not too bad. 

- He did not free Pollard.

- He didn't offer to give Israel extra free money or guns.

- He and Natanyahu managed to conceal their true feelings about each other.

- BHO's speech to the "youth group" was very skilled and the reaction both positive and negative was useful.

- He apparently did not accept Israeli instruction on Iran and Syria.

- His speeches in Israel were simple traditional drivel about friendship, eternal friendship and more eternal friendship.

- His visit to Abbas was much the same thing.

One thing about the press chatter around this trip that concerns me is the renewed talk of Jordan's instability, deep problems, etc.  I don't see it.  Jordan has always been a delicately balanced place.  Israelis for many decades "beat the drum" for the idea that the Hashemite monarchy would soon disappear.  They stopped that after Jordan made peace with them.  Have their allies in the press now started this again?  Abdullah is a very Western, modern, man who wants to bring the country to a consititutional monarchy that would be a true parliamentary democracy.  He wants to do that without surrendering the country to the Islamists.  What part of that does the media not like?  pl

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/21/politics/obama-mideast-visit/?hpt=wo_c1

Comments

[Bababk Makkinejad]

Col. Lang:

Hashemite monarchy is to disappear so that its replacement will become the Palestinian state - I think that is the idea.

That the Emirate of Jordan will write the liberation of the area between the river to the sea into its constitution has not occured to many Israelis and Jews (American or not).

I personally think that it will be a very serious struggle indeed for the Monarchy to survive - the King has been too late to reform, like Assad, and he has been making one concession after another.

The destruction of the Monarchy in Jordan also removes any claim to Hejaz and thus serves the interests of the Saudi Monarchy.

[turcopolier]

Babak

I know Jordan well and do not agree that Abdullah started late on liberalization. There are a lot of people in Jordan who do not want liberalization. they like the country the way it has been. Also, abdullah and his father do not resemble the Assads. pl

[Fred]

Even though many years have passed from the writing I gathered the same things from John Glubb's book. I'm not certain if it is correct to say our politicians have chosen the wrong side, but they certainly do not appear to have properly determined our actual national interests in the ME.

[mbrenner]

There is an extremely candid interview (very long)with Abdullah in the current issue of The Atlantic. It is informative and revealing.

[toto]

I also understand that sectarian divisions in Jordan are not nearly as tense as they were in minority-ruled Syria?

[Alba Etie]

Col Lang
How likely is it that Saudi interest are manipulating our MSM to futher their goals in the ME ? It occurs to me the Hasbara Press - (Mrs Greenspan comes to mind ) - may not be the only agitprop mouthpieces pushing for a destabilized Jordan . This can get pretty complicated pretty quick - but I am fairly confident that BHO will not launch anymore misbegotten wars in his 2nd term .
( Btw I googled the Sheridan reference regarding the plains Indian - it looks like Algerian & Chad leadership feel the same way toward the Islamist as you do ) ..

[Abu Sinan]

Israeli apology to the Turks and normalisation between the two is a big plus that coincides with Obama's visit.

[The beaver]

Colonel

When you have the mouthpiece of the Zionists Jeffrey Goldberg writing such article :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/storm-brewing-as-king-abdullah-denies-attacking-the-neighbours-8542978.html

Initial article in the Atlantic:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/04/monarch-in-the-middle/309270/

[Charles I]

This article claims it was no coincidence but a product of the visit:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the breakthrough after a phone conversation with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The 20-minute phone call was brokered by visiting President Barack Obama shortly before he left Israel.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/03/22/israel_apologizes_to_turkey_for_deaths_in_2009_flotilla_incident_restores_diplomatic_ties.html

[YT]

"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable..."

[Charles I]

Its true Jordan is a handy putative homeland for many purposes, mooted as the dumping ground for some kind of Liebermnaesque Lebensraum ethnic cleansing project, by any but Jordanians.

Given the Arab Spring, the existing peace with Jordan and mere propinquity with their Hero, Jordan cannot escape the musings of Goldberg et al in that context whatever the actual state of Jordanian affairs. Lets hope Abdullah fares better than Mubarak.

[Charles I]

thanks for tip

[Charles I]

It is quite informative.

In a brisk easy manner we learn that for all its supposed moderation, and I think to us ill informed outsiders,an image as a more "modern kind of Arab state, Abdullah inherited

"a sclerotic economy and a political system built on wasta, or favoritism, and the exploitation of tribal rivalries."

His reform and modernization was agenda dashed by 911 et seq.

Hence "the country is broke, dependent on the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and haughty gulf Arabs to cover its budget. (The IMF recently forced fuel-price hikes that have intensified the domestic resentment directed at the throne.)"

Toss in a cohort of "East Bankers" ready to oppose opening up or reform that involves the further Palestinian representation and political integration Abdullah thinks necessary and we have all the usual suspects present at many a disastrous outcome.

[DH]

Did the Colonel once say that the Iran/Israel tensions are actually Kabuki for their respective populaces? I think Obama wants the feather in his cap of normalizing relations with Iran. I wonder how far back-channel talks have gotten.

[turcopolier]

Charles I

"...us ill informed outsiders" You may be an ill informed outsider but I am not. If you wish to fall for Zionist anti-Jordanian propaganda, go right ahead. You are as foolish ws those who were bamboozled over Iraq. Goldberg is just a "shill" for the Likud. Yes, Jordan is a traditional Arab society. What a terrible thing! If the mpnarchy were to fall, there woild be a massive civil war with the prospect of another possible Islamist state. pl

[turcopolier]

DH

I never said that. The Israelis are paranoid colonialists and the Iranians are paranoid anti-colonialists. The level of baloney this week about Israel's ancient "right" to the land of Palestine was indicative of the psychological insecurity of this settler state. pl

[Jose]

The Israelis are paranoid colonialists and the Iranians are paranoid anti-colonialists. - pl

Great summary of the current situation...

IMHO, the trip was a waste of time and was nothing gained or lost, but I am amazed how every major country in the Middle East detest BSHO. Israel, Palestine, Iran, and the Arab states..our influence is fading.

[Nasreddin Hodja]

Maybe it has to do with the ideas of Ze'ev Jabotinsky about Greater Israel. Benzion Netanyahu, the father of the current PM, was his personal secretary. Bibi Netanyahu reportedly exalts his father and his boss Jabotinsky.

The lyrics of the marching song of the Betar, "The East Side of the Jordan" was written by Jabotinsky. With important water reserves, and with territories to accommodate millions of immigrants from the galut, if the need arises, the territory of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an essential part of Greater Israel.

http://www.saveisrael.com/jabo/jabojordan.htm

The song:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XmDdDbremo&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[Babak Makkinejad]

No doubt you do.

I recall the earlier campaign by him in 1999-2000 - Believe in Jordan - if I recall.

There was a photograph of him in Petra with a motorcyle between his legs.

I found that to be a singularly unpersuasive way of projecting any kind of modernity.

And then there was his famous "Shia Crescent" remark - unworthy of a Hashemite Monarch.

Like Assad jr., he has waited too long to reform Jordanian Monarchy and state - he still expresses the wish to control Defense and Foreign Affairs portfolios which causes me to doubt his constitutionalism bona fides.

In my opinion, he wasted 10 years and now Ikhwan are pushing and pushing and getting more and more.

[DH]

Thanks. Now it's going to bother me where I read that.

[turcopolier]

Babak

Ah, I see. This is a Shia/Sunni thing for you. A picture of him on a motorcycle? And? Unworthy of a soldier king? I have known him since he was a lieutenant in Jordanian special forces. That seems in character for him. pl

[turcopolier]

Charles I

Hey! Goldberg is an IDF reservist, an actual member of the Israeli army. Mubarak's fate? Hey! you are "logrolling" for Abdullah to suffer the same fate. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

To take pride in oneself or one's country, I should think, one has to have one's own accomplishments and likewise for one's country.

That was what I found lacking in his campaign 12-13 years ago.

His "Shia Crescent" comment was uncalled for as Jordan has no Shia.

Did someone from the Persian Gulf gave hin or Jordan certain amount of money to cause him to make that comment?

It is not his war.

[Fred]

"... he still expresses the wish to control Defense and Foreign Affairs portfolios which causes me to doubt his constitutionalism bona fides."

He would be foolish to give up either.

[Charles I]

Aye carumba its backwards day, see my reply to you above