President
Obama’s just-concluded visit to Israel, his first since his election in 2009,
was by all accounts a public relations success.
Long-demonized among a majority of Israelis, Obama’s charm offensive won
him new friends, particularly among Israel’s younger generations. For the hardcore Likudniks, the specter of
Obama being fawned over by his former harsh critic Bibi Netanyahu softened some
of the hatred.
Back in 2009, when the newly elected
President Obama appointed George Mitchell as his Middle East peace envoy,
ex-President Bill Clinton urged Obama to go to Israel, to marshal public
support for his peace initiative. Clinton warned the President that unless he
built up a base of support within Israel, Netanyahu would clean his clock and
sabotage any efforts to halt settlement expansion or move ahead on a two-state
solution. Obama ignored Clinton’s sage
advice and the rest is history.
Four years later, President Obama took
up the Clinton recommendation. But the
circumstances are very different now.
For one thing, President Obama’s advisors have told him that, despite a
weakened political situation, Netanyahu is more adamantly opposed than ever to
a halt in settlement expansion and has no intention of moving forward with a
two-state solution deal.
So, in their private talks, President
Obama gave a great deal of ground to Bibi, dropping any attempt to get a
settlement freeze. In effect, Obama
ripped up the Quartet agreement, under which Israel was to halt settlement
expansion once the Palestinian Authority cracked down on terrorism coming from
the West Bank. The PA has fully complied
with their side of the Quartet deal, and Obama just gave Netanyahu a green
light to ignore Israel’s obligations.
In return for calling for a resumption
of talks between Israel and the Palestinians with no preconditions—key and code
for settlement expansion—Obama extracted an unreliable promise from Netanyahu
that Israel would not take any unilateral action against Iran for the
foreseeable future. Obama indicated that
there was some progress at the last P5+1 talks, but it could take a year to
fully explore the chance for a diplomatic settlement. Obama provided Israel with detailed
intelligence assessments of Iran’s nuclear program, making it clear that U.S.
evaluations are more in line with those of Israeli intelligence. In these talks as well, Obama made it clear
that Israel has the sovereign right to defend itself against the Iranian
threat, but that the U.S. was prepared to use military force if the diplomacy
failed. In effect, this amounted to a
quasi-green light for Israel, given that Netanyahu’s “Red Line” for an attack
on Iran is quite different than the U.S. Red Line. For Netanyahu, the first moment that Iran
approaches 225 kilos of 20 percent enriched uranium, the order goes down for an
attack.
Obama also conceded that the United
States had to reassess the Arab Spring, particularly given the growing power of
the most extreme Jihadists in the wake of the overthrow of Qaddafi, the
Benghazi attack and the obvious leading role being played by the Al Nusra
Front, an offshoot of Al Qaeda in Iraq, in the Syrian insurgency.
And Washington also celebrated the
success of the Iron Dome missile defense program by pledging a continuation of
ever-expanding American military assistance.
Sequestration apparently stops at the banks of the River Jordan.
In short, in return for a passing and
soon-forgotten “feel good moment” Obama once again gave away the store to Bibi.
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