President Obama has released photographs of his awkward effort to deal with a fifty year old government owned shotgun from the Eisenhower era at Camp David. They evidently found this antique in a locker up there. Wilmington Joe Biden, the VP, went down to Richmond, Virginia last week to lobby for stricter federal gun control law. The flunky corporate media have not broadcast the result of that expedition, so, it is likely that it was a flop.
People like Axelrod are now admitting that the reason for a high homicide rate in Chicago is that there are 150,000 "youth" gang members in the city. New York City has 15,000 gang members and a much lower homicide rate.
The Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colorado and Newtown killers were madmen who were not identified or reported by the mental health community to the background check network. In the case of the Newtown killer, he, evidently, had not been treated at all.
These facts and the lack of leverage in Congress for strict federal gun control are slowly soaking into the minds of those who want more gun law.
What is actually going to happen is that there may be legislation to:
- Require background checks for all private gun sales in the US. This is the so called "gun show loophole." This change in law would require all those selling firearms at a show be registered with the show, i.e., have a booth. This will keep people from selling guns in the parking lot without a federal firearms sales license. On-line background checks are now possible from the show by licensed dealers registered for the show and are made at shows in Virginia. The new law will contain an exception for "family" transfers as does the NY State law. If there is not such an exception the bill will not pass. The bill will contain a requirement for the destruction of the record of the check for those who "pass" the check. Will the ATF actually destroy such records? That is an open question.
- There may be a ban on magazines with a large capacity. This will be meaningless. There are millions of such magazines now in private hands.
What is not going to happen?
- There will not be federal law requiring mental health agencies, mental health providers, counselors, schools and the like to provide inputs to the background check network. That will not happen because many of the same people who want stronger gun law do not want their children, friends or relatives to have a searchable federal record that suggests mental illness, even if government itself advises such treatment. pl
The fact that the gun dealers and gun shows have been so busy indicates that us gun fanciers expect a new gun law. There has been a change in attitude outside of Washington. The surburban soccer moms in Republican districts are seeing conmmercials and news stories with pictures of the kids that were killed in Newtown. A dunce like Wayne LaPierre does not have a chance against info like that. The NRA needs a new spokesperson and a new message if it wants to stay in the fray. They have especially screwed up and lost credibility over not endorsing comprehensive background checks.
Posted by: r whitman | 04 February 2013 at 11:20 AM
Sir,
I don't think they'll even get the so called "high capacity" magazine ban. Harry Reid and every other D not from the Fantasy Islands on our coasts seem to have no particular stomach for this fight. With county sheriffs and entire states refusing to uphold any such ban, I think that it is a battle that plays right into the NRA's hands as far as proving the slippery slope in regards to gun control.
The arrest of an Army veteran for having 5 AR mags last week in NY that were discovered during a random traffic stop just goes to show you they're not interested in saving children, just expanding the power of the state.
Posted by: Tyler | 04 February 2013 at 11:29 AM
"There has been a change in attitude outside of Washington."
What evidence do you have for that? The new Gabby Gifford PAC? A few tv commercials? A superbowl ad? A man in Detroit defended himself from a mugging Friday, 1 assailant is dead and one wounded:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/02/03/detroit-high-school-coach-shoots-suspected-attackers-outside-school/
Since the dead person's not white I guess liberals aren't too concerned. The man who defended himself - age 70 (I'm sure plenty of Floridians can related to that.) and reportedly a reserve police officer.
Still no follow up news as of mid-day Monday. But attitudes, you say, have changed.
Posted by: Fred | 04 February 2013 at 12:29 PM
"suburban soccer moms". Karl Rove, is that you?
Everything Whitman plays good to the coastals who've already neuteured themselves.
Meanwhile Wyoming and Texas are busy passing laws that dismiss any gun control laws shoved through by a bunch of New England Senators. Gov. Brewer is taking a page from Obama's book and saying that they will not enforce any such laws in order to "focus on other enforcement priorities".
Oh, and the ATF just botched an undercover op in Milwaukee in which it had a machine gun stolen. Whoops.
Posted by: Tyler | 04 February 2013 at 12:54 PM
I've only fired a gun a few times on my life with my dear departed grandpa, but I can't be the only one immediately reminded by the picture of Dukakis in the tank by this goofy photo op.
Posted by: Dongo | 04 February 2013 at 01:56 PM
From my very limited personal experience of American public servants, including immigration and customs, as well as what I see of their behaviour on television, any further intrusion on American citizens rights, such as any form of gun control is a very bad idea because Whatever new powers are awarded them by Congress, they will be immediately perverted and misused.
.
For example, any requirement for a background check/registration/etc. could be used to shut down gun shows in their entirety simply by stationing police at all entries and exits armed with the power to check everyone who attends...and that type of thing will happen in Liberal states.
Then of course there will be the "firearm stop" to check your gun rack.
Posted by: walrus | 04 February 2013 at 02:02 PM
I dont think you realize how badly the NRA plays to non gun people. We on this blog usually talk to gun people only. The Houston Chronicle rana major op-ed piece this weekend by Justin Cronin , the well known author who is a gun owner championing more gun control. An article like this would never have been published in Texas prior to Newtown. A major sporting goods retailer, Academy, no longer advertises firearms in their weekly circular. More to come.
Posted by: r whitman | 04 February 2013 at 02:13 PM
There was an interesting interview on NPR a couple weeks ago. They interviewed the individual responsible for bringing California into compliance with the federal gun program. He discussed the the fact it took California 10 years to create a process that could supply information to the federal government and still protect the privacy of people with mental health issues. He also stated the parts of the gun laws currently enacted, had not been funded. Then went on to add that some of the poorer states did not have the resources to enact or fully participate.
Posted by: Richard | 04 February 2013 at 02:16 PM
r. whitman
This is not a popularity contest involving the popularity of the NR in the fantasy islands. We will see who wins in Congress and the courts. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 04 February 2013 at 04:02 PM
The interesting thing about the entire 'mental health' issue is Schumer's (and the larger left's) push to turn PTSD into a revocation of your 2nd Amendment rights.
Posted by: Tyler | 04 February 2013 at 07:01 PM
tyler
oh, yes, "they" would love to make a diagnosis of PTSD into such a revocation, but not to worry, the moms and dads don't want "Jimmy" to have a record even if he has been on ritalin for years or has been in counseling in school so it won't happen. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 04 February 2013 at 07:13 PM
Cronin refers to an AR-15 as "heavy weaponry" in his NYT op ed, and calls himself a liberal from NE in the same breath he claims Texas.
Meanwhile the same Hollywood types who make billions off gun violence post videos on youtube asking for an end to gun violence. Piers Morgan looks like a petulant child after Ben Shapiro blows him away, and a bigger fool than Alex Jones of all people in between screaming over anyone who tries to talk to him like a grownup. The usual jewry suspects (Feinstein/Bloomberg/Schumer/Emmanuel) demand the goyim disarm themselves while they are surrounded by armed bodyguards 24/7 and arguing for more guns to be sent to Israel. The media can't bury enough "so and so saves a life defending themselves" and pushes turning the US population into sheep while Chicago, with its strictist in the nation gun laws, suffers through a wave of homicides.
All this versus the NRA saying "more mental health checks, less media violence, and armed guards in the school are good enough for the President's kids but not yours" while Obama fakes a skeet shoot.
Yeah, the NRA looks really bad compared to those guys who want to rip up the Constitution on top of a pile of dead children.
Posted by: Tyler | 04 February 2013 at 07:39 PM
Sir,
Apparently its already going on in some form with the VA using PTSD to declare veterans "incompetent".
http://www.examiner.com/article/senate-democrats-protect-administration-s-right-to-strip-ptsd-vets-of-guns
Posted by: Tyler | 04 February 2013 at 07:44 PM
Dear Sir:
Even mainstream media is getting the point ie Israel.
http://nation.time.com/2013/02/04/just-who-do-they-represent-at-hagel-hearing-concern-for-israel-tops-u-s-troops-in-combat/
Posted by: Abu Sinan | 04 February 2013 at 07:49 PM
I had to google the guy, but it is wonderful that a university professor who wrote a post apocalyptic best seller also wrote an op-ed. Sadly it's not available on line so I have no idea what he said, however he did say in Daily Beast on Oct. 10, 2012: " I’m very much a creature of the Northeast..."
Pretty much sums it up.
Posted by: Fred | 04 February 2013 at 08:29 PM
I've heard there is a big push to diagnose veterans with PTSD, though i can't remember the source. I did see the evening news yesterday (ABC?) with the teary eyed reporter bemoaning veterans with PTSD and access to guns. This is something along a similar line on-line:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/navy-seal-died-pursuing-passion-18397393
Once labeled, always labeled. Though the liberals will have a government solution for you.
Posted by: Fred | 04 February 2013 at 08:44 PM
It is true that it will eventually come down to what is legislated and, increasingly, the NRA is becoming a liability in this debate. It is also true that the more the NRA obstructs, the longer the issue will hang around and if it becomes a major issue in the next election cycles, the views of the general public will prevail and most politicians will be acutely aware of this.
Posted by: Lars | 05 February 2013 at 08:06 AM
lars
"the views of the general public " Where? pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 05 February 2013 at 08:11 AM
Mr. Lang,
re: "There will not be federal law requiring mental health agencies, mental health providers, counselors, schools and the like to provide inputs to the background check network. That will not happen because many of the same people who want stronger gun law do not want their children, friends or relatives to have a searchable federal record that suggests mental illness, even if government itself advises such treatment. pl"
That is a point that cannot be stressed enough. I for my part think that it is good something like that is not going to happen.
(IMO) Today's, America, that does not treat confidentiality of personal information seriously. Laws mandating that personal data of Americans are being protected are now routinely being circumvented by agencies having outsourced such activities to private partners unbound by such laws - a brazen and scandalous mockery of the law if there ever was one. Such a 'flight into private law', to escape cumbersome protections imposed in administrative law is illegal in my country, and rightly so.
It's also worth keeping in mind that such a database would be permanent in the age of contemporary data storage capabilities.
Just as bad, it would make a mockery out of patient-doctor confidentiality. It is unrealistic to try to figure out a way for health officials (a) provide such information to law enforcement while retaining the trust of their patients, and (b) it is equally unrealistic to think up a way that provides law enforcement with informations about 'locos' without giving away their identity. There would be little point in such information in anonymous form. Health professionals are right oppose such a law. They are there to help patients, and not yet another deputised arm of law enforcement.
And nobody in his right mind would want, to put it bluntly, 'crazy' or 'mental problems' on a permanent record, searchable for law enforcement.
Ever since 9/11 federal databases are accessible for local law enforcement. It is only a slight exaggeration to predict that it will lead to cases where someone's next parking ticket may be served by a SWAT team, with overwhelming force (officer safety demands nothing less), because the adressee was considered a 'high risk subject' after the database flagged him as such.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 05 February 2013 at 08:20 AM
CP
Thanks. I did not mention the yearning for a ban of the category of "assault weapons" because I thnk it has so little chance of passage. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 05 February 2013 at 08:42 AM
Lars
Have you mentioned to your friend at Keltec that you favor law that will prevent him from selling the weapons he designs? pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 05 February 2013 at 08:43 AM
lars, are you an American? Just curious because your comments seem to reflect a serious lack of understanding of American thought outside of the coastal ivory tower mentality that is found dispropotionately represented in American media.
I'm an Arizona man who finds himself voluntarily (albeit hopefully temporarily) displaced in New York. I don't understand people here. We have little to nothing in common. That said, I can tell you that in upstate NY there is a lot of discontent over the latest gun control laws. I have a feeling that enforcement is going to lead to a lot of trouble; a lot of civil disobedience.
Re; PTSD, my son, an Army infantry officer, just got back from a tour in A-stan. He was on the A-stan/Pakistan border and saw a lot of action; sounds like he experienced the worst that war has to offer. He was also wounded and looks like he will be getting out on a medical DC. They are trying everything to get him to go along with a PSTD disability as well. They're giving him drugs and enticements including attractive disability payments. He doesn't want to go along with it, feels he doesn't really have a disorder, and he did mention that the diagnosis could preclude him from owning guns. Weird. I wonder what angle the gov't is playing with this?
Posted by: no one | 05 February 2013 at 08:51 AM
I am sure he will survive any new legislation. He is a pretty smart guy.
Posted by: Lars | 05 February 2013 at 10:00 AM
Initially in public polling and eventually in election results. Most politicians will try to not be associated with, or enabling, mass murderers. Unless something is done before the next election that will be one tactic used. As we have seen in the past, decorum or merit does not count for much in an election campaign.
Posted by: Lars | 05 February 2013 at 10:06 AM
So what is next, if you are 'mentally ill' you can't vote?
Posted by: Fred | 05 February 2013 at 10:38 AM