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29 January 2013

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kao_hsien_chih

and Mubarak (or, more accurately, his spiritual successors) will be the hero of saving "democracy" and "revolution" in Egypt. Such irony....

Medicine Man

Good.

It is becoming increasingly clear that a coup d'etat followed by the installation of a secular dictatorship - one that is motivated to put on the appearances of reform to mollify (shine on) western audiences - is one of the better outcomes we could hope for in Egypt. I give props to the opposition in Egypt for not laying down and rolling over for Mursi. They seem to realize what is really at stake, which is more than you can say for many in the West. I think if the street battles continue however, the secularists will eventually lose. This would be rather bad. What I've seen of Mursi and his cohorts so far is all the confirmation I need that Col. Lang's other predictions about the trajectory of an Islamic Egypt are correct.

Matthew

This is stunning:

Medecine Man "It is becoming increasingly clear that a coup d'etat followed by the installation of a secular dictatorship - one that is motivated to put on the appearances of reform to mollify (shine on) western audiences - is one of the better outcomes we could hope for in Egypt."

Really? Whatever's wrong with Morsi, your cure is infinitely worse.

turcopolier

Matthew

How is MM's "cure" worse? I can't imagine a worse outcome than the creation of an Islamist state in Egypt. pl

Cal

Hump....I am not so sure this is what it seems....the Egyptian Military may want to be restored to it's former political power, (not to mention the..er..personal financial advantages some of their command enjoyed)...guess we will have to wait to see if Egypt ends as a vassal of the US once again after another coup to figure out the real story.
Personally I hope it doesn't---the only cure I see for f'ed up US ME policy long term is for us to first lose enough control that we're forced to a more realistic approach in so called power balancing.

bth

Col., I thought Mursi had put his own men in charge of the military? Does he control the military now or not? I'm confused.

turcopolier

bth

How does won delve into the content of people's souls? pl

turcopolier

cal

"a vassal of the US once again" How silly that is. pl

Medicine Man

You take a lot on faith, Matthew, if you think that the Brotherhood dominating Egypt is a desired outcome. Secular people in Egypt don't seem confused about this at all.

The re-imposition of strongman rule in Egypt wouldn't be a happy outcome but there could be room for reform under a secular government, especially now that all parties involved have had a reminder about what the consequences of failure are.

ISL

Try as I have, and I was happy to see Mubarak go, I have no idea how this can all end happy for Egypt. What the population needs is economically impossible for any government (democratic or not) to deliver. In such case, Tyranny of the majority is an alternate name for democracy.

The best solution for Egypt is a power structure that will balance societal needs from different sectors of the population and has the authority to enforce that (rather than as seems to happen these days in the US, pillage for the benefit of the very well connected).

The MB has (perhaps predictably) shown itself incapable of such a balancing act. I suspect the secularists would be just as bad and would greatly favor the twitter enabled. So what sector of society is left in Egypt? It seem evident that a strong man is preferable to civil war, such as the US detonated in Iraq, and has been actively encouraging in Syria. Bull in a China shop comes to mind as a useful way to describe some aspects of US foreign policy. Incoherent is another.


Jonathan

I sent opening text above to a young Arabic-speaking friend who arrived back in Egypt a few weeks ago. This friend replied:
.
"My view from Zamalek suggests that Morsi is here to stay, despite the opposition of a feisty liberal minority. With the exception of the area directly around Tahrir, the city is functioning "normally," even though it seems like most Egyptians are concerned that the MB does not have the political mettle nor the strength to govern as effectively as Mubarak. And I've noticed, again from my very limited view here, that the frequent roadblocks and related traffic problems caused by the street clashes are making most unaffiliated Egyptians resent the opposition and blame them, especially anyone who needs to move through the city in order to work. And...I'm not sure if there is a historical precedent for a coup coming from the outlying provinces rather than elites or middle class officers in the capital."
.
The friend also asked for my "take" but I plead ignorance.

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