The SCUD "onslaught" and the countdown to war.

"The Australian" wrote today that the thingies in this picture are SCUDS.  The newspaper writes that these "SCUDS" are being fired at rebels in northern Syria.  These are not SCUDS.

The real SCUD in its various models has a significant CEP and conventional warheads no bigger than aerial bombs that can be carried on the aircraft that Syria possesses, but "desperation" is said to be driving Assad to use these against an enemy who has no anti-aircraft capability except heavy machine guns and MANPADS.

This is an actual SCUD on a TEL  (Look it up)  Perhaps the first picture shows baby SCUDS?

Tonight the Honorable Fred Hof (Paul Bremer in waiting?) and Murhaf Jouejati (resident Syrian rebel at NDU?) beat the war drums on the Newshour.  Gwen Ifill did her best to inject some note of realism into the discussion, but to little avail.

The propaganda preparation of the American people for another military adventure is now approaching a climax.  US recognition of the rebel coalition sets the stage for legal intervention.

Shall we start a war "pool" as to the date?  pl  

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/ 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/assad-escalates-fight-with-scud-missiles/story-fnb64oi6-1226536017566

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

The Ides of March?

[RetiredPatriot]

Sigh.

I predict first period of moonless/low-illumination nights in March. With perhaps a bit of a Persian kicker to boot. After all, in for a penny, in for a pound.

This certainly lays to rest any controversy over the bi-partisan nature of the "Washington Rules." I wonder if they will even bother to get a lame AUMF from an equally lame Congress?

If you see lots of official AMCITS leaving Tel Aviv, Ankara, etc - you know the date is near.

RP

[Alba Etie]

Col Lang
I will be holding fast to the hope that the Turkish public who were against the illegal Irak War -will not allow Erdogan to support a NATO war on Syria.

[jonst]

My guess is Assad, personally, falls before the US can come in. Forces that would call themselves pro regime, and that is an very elastic term, might think they can get a better deal...or fight a better fight, without the burden of an Assad 'trademark'. (for "better fight" read: go forth in the world in search of allies). So Assad is jettisoned, and then the US has to decide if it wants to jump into the hell that will follow the collapse of the present regime. But in any event....I think Assad's days are truly numbered now. His 'brand' stinks....and these boys and girls in DC love, and live, 'brand'.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Wiki has an order of battle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Army

Doesn't the photo at the top depict some type of multiple launch rocket system? The press pool at the Pentagon could certainly ask for clarification.

But the real issue is indeed the psychological preparation of the US public for war against Syria and then apparently Iran in the spring. Livni and Indyk have said Obama will go to war with Iran in the spring.

The press did report Deputy SecState Bill Burns as saying in Morocco that "transition will come one way or the other." IMO, he is saying war is coming to implement regime change although the possibility of a coup d'etat would not be excluded.

Thus, as to timing of the war against Syria: before spring 2013. Are there some operational or technical indicators that could help us narrow down the date?

[João Carlos]

march 2013

[blowback]

"Doesn't the photo at the top depict some type of multiple launch rocket system?"

Yes it does, the M270

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://images.wikia.com/zh.uncyclopedia/images/7/7a/M270_MLRS.jpg&imgrefurl=http://cn.uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/File:M270_MLRS.jpg&h=768&w=1024&sz=134&tbnid=D3G4bdAbwyWlIM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=132&zoom=1&usg=__LZvERcBhDdGtphk4bck5JBK7iTo=&docid=qeaLtE8BteXZtM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=JdfJUPf7NKmA0AW08oGYBw&ved=0CEAQ9QEwAg&dur=14">http://images.wikia.com/zh.uncyclopedia/images/7/7a/M270_MLRS.jpg&imgrefurl=http://cn.uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/File:M270_MLRS.jpg&h=768&w=1024&sz=134&tbnid=D3G4bdAbwyWlIM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=132&zoom=1&usg=__LZvERcBhDdGtphk4bck5JBK7iTo=&docid=qeaLtE8BteXZtM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=JdfJUPf7NKmA0AW08oGYBw&ved=0CEAQ9QEwAg&dur=14">http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://images.wikia.com/zh.uncyclopedia/images/7/7a/M270_MLRS.jpg&imgrefurl=http://cn.uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/File:M270_MLRS.jpg&h=768&w=1024&sz=134&tbnid=D3G4bdAbwyWlIM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=132&zoom=1&usg=__LZvERcBhDdGtphk4bck5JBK7iTo=&docid=qeaLtE8BteXZtM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=JdfJUPf7NKmA0AW08oGYBw&ved=0CEAQ9QEwAg&dur=14

"The press pool at the Pentagon could certainly ask for clarification."

You're having a laugh!

[Hank Foresman]

The photo in the Australian is of a US M270 Multiple Rocket Launch System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System; it can fire either rockets, or the Army Tactical Missile System ATACMS. When firiing rockets it fires six from each pod (x2) for a total of 12 and one ATACMS from each POD for a total of 2.

I saw the interview on PBS, and you are right, there is a low rumbole of war drumns coming from those who individually will not fight the war or whose relative will fight the war. Any intervention in Syria will be neither short or painless. Perhaps reinstating the Ottoman Empire is a viable option, but then the West would have to turn its back on the drancian measures necessary to keep the tribes in line.

[Mike C]

CK-

Not only some kind of multiple launch rocket system, that first picture is a LockMart-built M270 MLRS. The Aussies haven't got any of them, maybe they're just confused? The Turks and the Israelis would recognize it.

[turcopolier]

All

Kinda funny, kinda. We are flat broke and are going to start another war, pl

[jonst]

I'll tell ya what I think is "kinda funny, kinda"...there is are ton of people and entities making a ton of money in the run up, the fighting, and the 'peace' of wars we're in. See yesterday's NYTimes with the story of Wesley Clark and Albright pimping bids for 'privatization' of something or the other in the 'nation' of Kosovo. Or, perhaps they are the whores and not the pimps? In any event I would like to throw an net over the lot of them.

[Harper]

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag has approved the Patriot and AWACS deployments for a duration of 13 months (until Jan. 31, 2014), and this just underscores that the Syria events are a prelude to planned military action against Iran sometime during 2013. Both Russia and China are seeing this as a major move by the US and NATO to establish absolute control over the global oil patch and to hold them as economic hostages. The events in the Middle East are playing out at the same time that the ABM deployments are moving forward. The DPRK launch of a longrange rocket/missile this week will accelerate the "Asia pivot" and the deployment of an ABM system into the areas adjacent to China. I attended the conference in Washington where the National Intelligence Council's "Trends to 2030" report was released, and one astute questioner noted the parallels between the situation today and the situation in July 1914, on the eve of World War I. At some point, regional conflicts, provoked by outside powers, reach a threshold where general war becomes possible, if not almost inevitable. I agree with Col. Lang about the underlying humor of us going to another war (or wars) flat broke (the Fed announced yesterday that they will be purchasing $45 billion a month in additional Tresuries from the banks and will also purchase 90 percent of all new Treasury issues in 2013), but I also see larger war clouds on the near horizon if this madness does not stop.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Thanks all for help on the MLRS M270 system which as our host indicates indeed does not look like a SCUD system or function like one. Yet, "experts" in newsland are pontificating about the use of the alleged "SCUDs" against the poor defenseless al-Nura terrrorists.

Perhaps the thinking about the war against Syria is that it can grow into a war against Iran and a broader regional war. And further that war is a good method to get out of the economic problems in Europe and US. Seems rather mad to me.

Yes, Hof as Bremer but someone may not miss this time.

[Russ]

Hi Pat,
Apologies if you get this twice. Seems to me that the Syrians were thought to have SS-21 in addition to SCUDs and FROGs. Also, there are quite a few SCUD variants with differing capabilities and CEPs. Those made by North Korea might well suffer from the type of problems that have plagued the N. Korean missile development program. I saw the effects of Iranian SCUDs fired into Iraq. Equipped with a conventional warhead it doesn't seem like SCUDs would be very effective against Syrian rebels.
Best wishes for the holidays.
Russ

[zanzibar]

Pat

Yes, broke indeed! So broke that Bernanke confirmed yesterday that he would print up another $1 trillion in 2013 and debauch even further the meager savings of the American middle and working classes while enriching further those with first access to this newly conjured "money".

But all the "well intentioned" supporters of more government and what the Krugmanite acolytes don't realize is that these policies only impoverish further the middle and working classes while enriching the politically well connected elites. To quote John Maynard Keynes, whose name is used for endless growth in government deficit spending, now monetized by central banks:

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth."

[Charles]

Col Lang,
I would add funny, pathetic. We can assume that this war will be fought on credit like the previous misadventures. These Yahoos never mention the Butcher's Bill that will be paid by our service members as they work the themselves and the MSM into a war frenzy. Of course that is easy to do when they and their whelps have no chance of paying the bill.

Regards,

[DH]

Sir, what do you think of the idea that a Syrinan war, spreading to Lebanon, eradicating Hezbollah, will stop short of going after Iran? That is, the removal of her allies is intended to soften her for negotiation.

[The beaver]

Sometimes after January 22nd 2013 - not to disturn Bibi and the Pro-Israeli crowd.
It will be done whilst Hilary is still Sec Of State - she will stick around until her replacement is nominated ( I doubt they will leave that position to a career diplomat during the hiatus for confirmation and poor Susan won't get that seat at Foggy Bottom)

[DH]

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

[walrus]

The premise of the movie "Wag the Dog" is similar to what is unfolding.

What better way to bypass the military budget cuts inherent in the "fiscal cliff" than to start another war?

What better way to sell "Austerity" and welfare and medicare cuts then invoking patriotism and shared sacrifice?

...And besides, the road to Tehran runs through Damascus. "They will greet us with flowers".

But who do we freedomize after Iran? Africa?

[David Habakkuk]

Russia and China. At least, that suspicion will define the security strategies of both countries. The results are, obviously, unpredictable.

There was an interesting piece on Asia Times recently, suggesting that the Chinese response to the U.S. 'pivot towards Asia' might be to try to collapse the Japanese economy.

(See http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NL01Ad01.html )

[blowback]

FROGs (aka 9K52 Luna-M) or an Iranian knockoff would make more sense/ SS-21s are way too valuable to waste on a few terrorists unless you could be sure of hitting a concentration. Unfortunately for anonymous officials in Washington, Frogs do not have the name recognition that SCUDs do.

The Times via The Australian might even be more wrong - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/Caerulea3_crop.jpg/800px-Caerulea3_crop.jpg

[DH]

"The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag has approved the Patriot and AWACS deployments for a duration of 13 months (until Jan. 31, 2014), and this just underscores that the Syria events are a prelude to planned military action against Iran sometime during 2013. Both Russia and China are seeing this as a major move by the US and NATO to establish absolute control over the global oil patch and to hold them as economic hostages. The events in the Middle East are playing out at the same time that the ABM deployments are moving forward."

Will we all be staring eyeball to eyeball, or will it all become a militarized DMZ?

[jonst]

what inflation? Inflation these days is like those reports of a Cuban brigade in Grenada, back in the day. The rates, including the long term rates, are as low as they have been since, what, since Darius the First reigned in Babylonia?

Every day the bond traders trudge off to work around the world...betting their money that inflation won't come any time soon....then every night they trudge home regaling us with talk of inflation coming. What is it? Do you listen to their laments? Or their bets? I go with their bets....I'm a hell of lot more worried about a jobs crisis, and investment crisis, than i am about inflation. What did Amazon recently sell commercial bonds at? under two percent? Give me a break.

[turcopolier]

All

After the failures in Iraq, Afghanistan and Egypt I have ti wonder if what is happening is not a sort og mass psychosis. Do the fools at AEI, WINEP, the MSM and the WH all think that somehow this time it will be different? pl