Has Obama decided on war in Syria?

Today's Washington Post appears to be temporarily unaccessable on line.  It contains "above the line" a feature story that continues the propaganda campaign in the media apparently designed to create public belief in the imminent collapse of the Syrian government and/or the imminent employment of Sarin or some other noxious substance by the Syrian government.

1 - The same two propagandists from WINEP and ISW are quoted as the main sources of this article as in so many other propaganda pieces on this theme and subject.  These two fellows have no sources of information that they will admit to other than rebel "news" releases.  The level of enthusiasm for this information campaign is so high in the idiot media that these two "experts'" opinions are now quoted as evidence.

2 - Both the president of the United States and the Secretary of State have taken to making speeches threatening Syria with unspecified "consequences" if chemical weapons are employed in the civil war.  Syria states that it will not do so.

3- It seems that the United States will soon recognize a coalition of rebel groups as the government of Syria in spite of the presence in that coalition of AQ related groups who are self-declared enemies of the United States.

4- It is the policy of the United States to bring about complete governmental change in Syria.  There is no UN sanction for such a policy.

It appears that the Obama Administration has taken upon itself the right to determine the outcome of the civil war in Syria.  The ongoing and emerging disaster in Egypt is evidently not a deterrant to "king making" in Syria.  pl

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

Comments

[b]

Today they was a video posted that shows lots of various industrial chemicals and someone preparing some mixture.
The chemicals are from the Turkish company Tekkim.
http://www.tekkim.com.tr/

A poster on wall, mostly in Arabic, also says "Wind Isber Chemical Inscription".

Two rabbits in a glass cage are shown. Some chemical is added to another one in the glass cage. A reaction appears to create some gas. The cage is closed at the top. After a few minutes the rabbits seem to die.

This could be some Jihadis preparing chemical weapons for use against Assad supporters. This could be an attempt by the Syrian government to blame Jihadis in case it must use chemical weapons.

Chemical weapons against the Jihadis by the Syrian government would be mostly useless and even dangerous. I do not believe that the regime would do this.

The video link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpIRRRuCEyg

And a copy at a different account:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDtVigGU0U4

Could some folks with knowledge of Arabic please explain what is said in the video and written on the wall?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Very interesting, thanks for heads up.

Developments for war against Syria and Iran since O's reelection are moving right along.

The publicly stated policy of the US by POTUS himself is regime change. This is clearly no bluff, O means what he says: regime change, Assad out and the "opposition" in. Covert and not so covert action has been underway for some months to this end.

Congress is fully supportive so there is no problem there with use of force if need be.

American public opinion is easily manipulated and has been since World War I, all the techniques and methods are tried and true. There will be little opposition in the press. A few newspapers, to their credit, editorially opposed Bush43s Iraq War but only a few. Editorial boards will come into line with the White House.

The pattern was for the Bush43 Iraq War that it was agreed on by Bush and Blair in the spring, secret ops in the summer, fall debate in Congress and UN. Then the war.

It seems to me, assuming a Bush43 pattern, that O probably has already agreed with the Brits on the war. Perhaps Blair is something of an unofficial cutout or whatever and plays a role moving this along. Unusual changes were made at NSC some time ago interfacing it with the UK in certain special ways.

O has tightened up on USG "internal threats" thus moving to silence leaks in opposition to a war policy it would seem.

There is elite consensus in the foreign policy establishment between Dems and Republicans that going outside the UN process is appropriate. This consensus was reached back in 2007 more or less, before O was POTUS. The "coalition of the willing" method to go outside the UN if the UNSC won't approve US use of force is the method and does not require UNSC approval in the thinking of the US elite consensus.

Furthermore, full NATO procedures in voting on use of force are not considered necessary by this consensus. That is, little NATO powers could block. So only big NATO powers should have sway, the little ones be damned.

Thus, not only the White House but also Congress, the foreign policy establishment in general, and the media are already "on side" for the war and have been for 20 some months.

The war objectives are regime change in Syria, preparation for the war against Iran, and strategic countering of Russia and China by proxy war.

We will have plenty of interesting developments to follow here with our esteemed Host.

[The beaver]

Colonel

This frontman, a Christian from Assad regime, who has just defected and on his way to the US said in July that the govt will use chemical warfare only against outside forces:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/04/syria-foreign-ministry-us

From July 2012:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/23/syria-chemical-weapons-own-goal
"Jihad Makdissi, the Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, was responding to public and private warnings from Israel and the US by insisting that the weapons would only be used in case of a foreign attack on Syria and not against its own people, as the opposition has warned could happen."

[Fred]

So as the world approaches the anniversary of the birth of the Prince of Peace the United States, under the august leadership of Barrack Hussein Obama, will give the people of Syria a war based on fears of WMD? Has the order of battle of the FSA changed in the 90 days or so since Aurn Lund’s article appeared - other than the massive influx of jihadi’ s who are opposed to the United States?
http://www.ui.se/upl/files/77409.pdf

Which foreign government is influencing our own to do this – or are they so out of touch with reality as to not understand our own national interests? Maybe they think a Syria cleansed of Christians and other minorities by the FSA is something we should support?

[Babak Makkinejad]

If that is the case, I hope Mr. Obama will have the decency to return his Noble Peace Prize.

[William R. Cumming]

Well I long ago predicted formal US intervention in Syria before the election and formal intervention in Iran afterwards. I was wrong about the former but perhaps just premature.
While I voted for the man, Obama, for President both times I was voting against his opposition. I feared that the real lesson of another person who felt entitled to the Presidency would again expand the IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY that apparently has no ability to be restrained.

Yes, Obama now wants to be linked into history as the US President who most changed MENA through the instrument of warfare. Declared or undeclared.

A sad case of another person frustrated by his personal history into wanting redemption through power percieved or actual.

Where do we get such men?

[walrus]

The video is complete and utter crap - disinformation for the gullible who didn't even do high school chemistry.

I've checked Tekkims website and price list - it appears to be a supplier of simple laboratory reagents - certainly not the stuff of modern chemical warfare, not even close.

I've checked the video - again simple laboratory reagents and lab gear setups appropriate to a Twelve year old.

Simply douse most chloride salts with concentrated sulfuric acid and you will produce chlorine gas and kill your rabbits. This is a matter for PETA not NATO.

[David Habakkuk]

Clifford Kiracofe,

On the British end to this. Our neocons -- who are still very powerful -- can get away with playing foolish games in relation to Syria, because in general people do not notice.

A war with Iran would however be a quite different matter. Back in February, the information operations people tried out a story about the UK being in range of missiles the Iranians were developing in the Daily Mail.

(See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2095722/UK-range-Irans-missiles-Clegg-says-worried-war-break-out.html )

If you filter the comments by 'Best rated', you can get a picture of the resentment and distrust that the foolish wars of the past decade have aroused in a lot of 'Middle England'. Particularly notable is the hostility to the whole political elite, and also to Israel.

[DH]

After ushering in the Millennium? I don't think so.

[Al Arabist]

Yes, it's a "kill the cockroaches" message- genocidal tinge- with cheesy voiceover call to action. A waste of psy op money. The shabiha do not need to see rabbits in plexiglass and fingers wagging to know they're losing oxygen. Almost anything Nato will do gives them air though.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

David Habakkuk,

Many thanks for the insights. A cousin and her husband spend a fair amount of time each year in Somerset and I gather from them sentiments you indicate from Middle England and expressed by their neighbors and friends.

Over here, during the Bush43 Iraq War extemely heavy press censoship blacked out the anti-Iraq war sentiment in the UK. Particularly dissent at the Parliamentary level was blacked out. I followed this very closely at the time noting that the US press played up only the pro-war sentiment in the UK.

I would read the major UK press from left to right noting the dissent. Then when reading the same day/next day news in the US papers find dissent stories missing.

I found it particularly interesting that sensible Conservatives opposed the war but this was not at all conveyed in the US press. The US press thus gave a very distorted view of British opinion.

I recall a large number of retired diplomats and military came out against the war in the UK just as happened here. Their voices went unheard but at least they spoke out. The US press blacked out the British voices.

I don't doubt we could do a similar press analysis today with similar results.

At present, whom do you see as the main promoters of intervention in Syria? What arguments do they use?

Given that England and later the UK has had experience out in that region for a number of centuries, one wonders just what Cameron and Hague are thinking. It is hard for me to imagine that the "mandarins" or the UK armed forces recommend intervention.

Is there an explanation?

[turcopolier]

All

With regard to the rabbit, when I was a captain and in a service school course full of combat veterans I saw one of our number walk up on a stage, push a full colonel of the wretched Chemical Corps aside and extract a white rabbit from a cage, The white coated assholes were going to kill it with a drop of VX on the bare skin to show us that it worked and that, they too, were men. One of the members of the class it home to be a pet for his children. There was a lot of noise. I suppose that would not have happened in the USMC. pl

[The beaver]

CK

Didn't David Cameron say that he would call on Obama to make the Syrian crisis a priority for US foreign policy?

Plus I wouldn't dismiss the influence of Anders Rasmussen, the NATO SG, very ambitious creature !!!

[Medicine Man]

Very interesting, Mr. Habakkuk. "Here we go. WMD all over again." -- Indeed. How utterly disturbing that the same tricks keep working on the public.

[Medicine Man]

I remember you telling that story before on SST. It stuck with me for some reason.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"WASHINGTON — In an apparent bid to isolate Islamist extremists and bolster a new Western-backed Syrian opposition alliance, the United States is moving to declare one of the most effective Syrian rebel groups a foreign terrorist organization because of its alleged ties to al Qaida...."

"Nusra members in Syria have told McClatchy that most of their funding comes from individuals in Saudi Arabia."

The strongest ones fighting now are the ones who have money," said Abdullah Alsayed, a former Syrian army captain who led a rebel unit before coming to the United States in January. “All the money comes in from Saudi Arabia and Qatar and all the money goes to the Salafis and Islamists," a reference to the religious conservatives who provide Nusra with its fighters."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/12/04/176389/us-might-name-syrian-rebel-nusra.html?storylink=addthis#.UL9p7AYa3KE.blogger#storylink=cpy

The article cites two "experts":

"Elizabeth O’Bagy, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War who recently returned from touring rebel-held areas to research Nusra and other Islamist groups."
She is a grad student at Georgetown who is pro-al Nursa. ISW is the Kagan thing.
http://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/elizabeth-obagy

"Aaron Zelin, an analyst who follows Nusra for his research on militants at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy." WINEP is the AIPAC offshoot.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/view/aaron-y.-zelin

[Clifford Kiracofe]

I think we might agree that he didn't deserve it in the first place.

[Jackie]

In 2001, pre 9/11, but after the Buddas of Bamiyan were being destroyed by the Taliban, I remember nightly news showing dogs being poisoned by the Taliban. I wondered at the time and have finally figured out it was probably propaganda.

[Former 11B]

Yep...stuck with me too. I hope that rabbit had a great life with those kids. Who volunteers for the Chemical Corps? Maybe some Germans in another lifetime.

[Phil Cattar]

In my humble opinion it is past time for the Asad family to go.I wrote that he was a" dead man walking" on this site almost from the very beginning of the uprising.I predicted a "rebel" victory months ago.There are not a lot of angels in the area but the Asads' are especially pernicious..............Syria is not fertile ground for orthodox Islam.The Syrians are moderate Moslems who want what most westeners want.It is not Saudi Arabia.Even SA is not Saudi Arabia anymore.....Obama is letting various groups of "rebels" do the dirty work and then will most likely try to have a big influence on who governs Syria.The US ,Turkey,Israel,Saudi Arabia ,Qatar and Lebanon all have a big stake on what happens.....................The four legged stool of Iran,Syria,Hizbullah and Hamas is being dismanteled .Hamas and its ability to make and /or import Iranian missiles has been damaged in the latest flare up..When Syria goes it will be a major blow to Iran and Hizbullah..........I was against Iraq 1 and 2,but this is different.........Something has to and will happen.It is not going to be the status quo ante........we must do what we can to salvage the situation and protect US interests.

[robt willmann]

After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, I remember that Lawrence Eagleburger -- former foreign service officer, Secretary of State briefly, and long time insider -- said after the Bush jr. administration was strutting around threatening to invade Syria, that "[i]f George Bush decided he was going to turn troops on Syria now and then Iran he'd be in office about 15 minutes". And if Bush jr. was to try such an attack, he should be impeached.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_16-4-2003_pg4_18

I think he may have also been quoted in the BBC, but I cannot find it. The link above has a reference to the British Daily Mirror newspaper as carrying the quote. I am pretty sure Eagleburger initially made the remark when overseas. Then, after it got a little publicity, I think he was on Fox News on maybe a Sean Hannity program and was of course asked whether he said it, and Eagleburger confirmed that he had.

I remember thinking at the time how surprising it was to hear someone like Eagleburger make such a blunt statement publicly. He was obviously trying to slow the train down. He has since passed away.

What a difference nine years makes. The propaganda now for overthrowing the Assad government in Syria has been and is obvious and continuous. Eagleburger has left this world. And Colin Powell has been silent; no publicized statement by him to president Obama on Syria that "if you break it, you own it".

[lent]

It seems that the United States will soon recognize a coalition of rebel groups as the government of Syria in spite of the presence in that coalition of AQ related groups who are self-declared enemies of the United States

Al Qaeda is a blessing in disguise. They can carry out another 9/11 attack in the US, and then we can use that as justification for more invasions.

[b]

The German daily Süddeutsche reports today that Clinton (together with Turkey and Britain) is pressing for a NATO military intervention in Syria. Germany and others are against such an intervention.

I have translated the report and posted it at my site.

[walrus]

Fritz Haber lusted for the uniform of a German officer and the Kaiser made him a Captain.

His wife, also a scientist, committed suicide in the ultimate protest against her husbands activities.

[confusedponderer]

If the fact that chemical weapons development occurred in Germany, Japan, Britain, France, Russia and the US and others means anything, the odds are that all these countries had their "Germans" all the time.

Considering that, maybe it isn't about being German at all, but simply about a belief in science and technology - chemistry - being a fix for battlefield problems (attacking enemies behind cover). Today I assume FAE are the answer to that, or perhaps DIME munitions, despite their apparent horrific side effects.

Personally I don't see much of a difference in the attitude of the engineers building something like a 25MT nuke, conceiving the nastiest possible form of napalm or building the MOAB or a guy shooting and dissecting goats to research deadlier bullets to the attitude of a guy cooking chemical weapons.

In the best possible interpretation, they simply see themselves invariable as engineers solving technical problems. In the worst reading they are people who delight in building devices of destruction. The truth is invariably somewhere in between, depending on who you're looking at.

The point about demonstrating VX in front of a class however, by poisoning a rabbit for something that a movie could do more humanely, gives it a distinct creepy touch. The rebellion against that is IMO both reassuring and delightful.