HARPER: SYRIA IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

For the past week, the Obama Administration, joined by the entire neocon and Israeli Lobby apparatus has been engaged in an information warfare campaign to pave the way for the final overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria.  The centerpiece of the campaign is the claim that Syrian military units are prepared to launch chemical weapons attacks against their own population, and possibly against Turkey, a NATO country.  The North Atlantic Council, the policy-making body of NATO, has approved the rush deployment of Patriot missile batteries to southern Turkey to protect against the so-called Syrian chemical weapons attacks.  Such outright propaganda outfits as Israel’s DEBKA, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), and Atlantic magazine’s resident IDF voice, Jeffrey Goldberg, are all putting out claims that the Syrian Air Force has already assembled sarin gas weapons and armed fighter planes to launch attacks at any moment.

 

Both the German BND and the Russian government have issued strong statements in the past 24 hours, indicating that they have carefully looked into the chemical weapons claims and find absolutely no evidence to confirm them. 

The propaganda campaign is a carbon copy of the now totally discredited “weapons of mass destruction” claims that were used in 2002-2003 to justify the U.S. led invasion of Iraq to overthrow the Saddam Hussein government.  In the words of the immortal American philosopher and linguist Yogi Berra, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” 

Not only is the U.S. and NATO showing reckless disregard for the consequences of that Iraq fiasco.  There is an even more stubborn refusal to learn some of the most painful lessons of the more recent regime change adventure in Libya.  The overthrow and execution of Qaddafi has turned Libya into a hotbed of al-Qaeda insurgency.  This was most evident in the Sept. 11, 2012 killings of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three American intelligence officers by the al-Qaeda affiliate, Ansar al-Sharia.  In the case of Syria, it is now an open secret that the most effective anti-Assad regime fighters are also al-Qaeda affiliates, from an alphabet soup of neo-Salafi groups, getting their weapons and funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf states.  The Syrian group al-Nusri has been identified in several recent indepth news account by the McClatchey News Service and the Daily Telegraph as the most effective fighting force, training cells of suicide bombers and fielding battalion-strength military units.  They are in the forefront of every military victory by the opposition.  So, what will be the consequences of the overthrow of the Assad government?  National Public Radio this morning interviewed several American counter-terrorism “experts,” including Bruce Hoffman, who candidly admitted that al-Qaeda is on the rise and that the new hub of global al-Qaeda jihad is Syria.  They neglected to mention that, as was the earlier case in Afghanistan, these al-Qaeda jihadis are being touted as the “rebels” and “freedom-fighters” who are on the verge of liberating Syria from the clutches of Assad. 

I have no doubt that this Syria fiasco is headed towards a rapid conclusion.  The depth of wartime propaganda centered on the chemical weapons scare indicates that the Western powers are committed to bringing down the Assad government as rapidly as possible.  The North Atlantic Council, the governing body of NATO, has agreed to send Patriot missile batteries to southern Turkey to “defend” against an alleged looming Syrian chemical weapons assault.  In reality, the Patriot deployment is a step towards the creation of a no-fly zone in northern Syria.  DEBKA today is reporting that the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower is now parked in the eastern Mediterranean, with thousands of American troops prepared to intervene to capture the chemical weapons.   

This is all going to end very badly.  Harper

Comments

[jdgalvez]

Thanks! That makes sense. What a mess.

[Jake]

When we screw things up we really auger then in... What I am really missing here, so some please educate me is, how does any of this propel or protect our ME interests?

[Jake]

I was watching CNN tonight and was just saddened by how folk like Fran Townsen analyized the so-called WMD threat by sourcing the NYT. Then saying that the USG was really trying to ascertain the Syrian chemical theat. Shit if we by now don't understand that threat by now then we are in hurting shape. It also kills me that we lump chemical weapons along with gernades as WMDs. I am an old school boy. The only WMD I know still splits atoms...

[Altoid]

For a while now Scott Pelley on CBS has been referring to Assad as "the dictator." That was the routine epithet for Saddam Hussein and can't be a coincidence.

But the real tipoff I'm waiting for is stories about infants in incubators. When that surfaces (again) we'll know for sure it's a go.

[steve g]

The "leading from behind" accusation mantra
from the Repubs during the election has
accelerated the neo-cons, neo-Wilsonians
etc. wishes to intervene in every world-wide
conflict except the Palestinian-Israeli
situation. What will it take to lessen the
militarisam? A global financial crash? BHO
should shelve that Nobel Peace prize or
perhaps return it. Could recommend another
place to put it but I wont be that crass. One
might assume the world views us as the collective
fools we appear to be.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Again, I think you are reading too much into this.

Hormone-crazed young men all over the world are prone to the call of adventure, including war.

How many young men went to Spain to fight for "The Republic" from US?

Or UK?

Sorry lot of gullibale Protestant boys - I suppose waging a war against the "Papists".

And how many young men from US went to fight Gemany in 1939?

And in the recent wars of US in Indochina and in Iraq, how many Canadians were there fighting for a cause that was not theirs?

[bth]

Perhaps another question might be asked: If Assad falls, who gets the CB weapons?

[FB Ali]

I find Harper's explication of the reasons for Israel's participation in this anti-Syrian cabal very persuasive. It is likely that many in Israel (eg, ultras like Lieberman & Co) also believe that an anarchic Syria is better for Israel than a powerful potential opponent in Assad's Syria.

A Syria dominated by Sunni jihadi militias will also cause Lebanon's Shia Hizbullah to face in two directions, thus lessening its threat to Israel.

The most powerful opponent of Sunni/AQ jihadism is Iran. By destroying it the West will exponentially increase the power of these jihadis. What crazy calculus underlies these policies?

Perhaps the old saying is true: Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad!

[kao_hsien_chih]

It seems to be somewhat the repeat of how Israel originally backed precursors of Hamas, doesn't it? It really does seem that Israel tends to consider Sunni religious extremists more tolerable than secularists, and as someone pointed out, international Sunni Jihadists (not counting Hamas, obviously) haven't done anything against Israel. I would, however, also much appreciate comments from those who are more enlightened and experienced on these matters.

[Paul Escobar]

Harper,

Excellent. Thank you for sharing.

[Bill H]

Pelley has also been saying that "the people of Syria began a revolution against the Assad dictatorship." True, except for, what, about 50% of the people, who supported him?

[FkDahl]

From the perspective of Israeli politicians I see an advantage of being surrounded by technologically inferior
"Bantustans" full of Salafists, that will keep firing the odd rocket, thereby giving a perfect excuse for continued expansion of the settlements, and full annexation of the Golan heights. No peace can ever be signed with them, see?! Against a civilized and technologically advanced nation (such as Iran) this cannot be done.
Israeli military probably have a less optimistic view of this, they are, after all, the ones that will be shot at and take the blame for any Israeli civilian casualties.
Perhaps I am too cynical?

[walrus]

Is it possible that Saudi Arabia is greasing the skids under Assad as a way of leaving Iran exposed and friendless?

That would impy that the Saudi Royal Family view Iran as greater danger to them ten Al Qaeeda wouldn't it?

If that was the case, then the Saudis must have some idea that there is some way that NATO/Saudi/ Brotherhood forces can neutralise/euthanise the jihadist/Al Qaeeda fighters afterwards?

Surely all of us know by now the danger of leaving these fanatics sitting around when the job is finished with nothing to do?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Perhaps you are not eading enough into it. Are you suggesting excuses for the terrorists relate to their biological functions?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

While we are considering deja vu, on the topic of wartime lies:

"Are the ideas of the conservative political philosopher Leo Strauss a shaping influence on the Bush administration’s world outlook? Danny Postel interviews Shadia Drury – a leading scholarly critic of Strauss – and asks her about the connection between Plato’s dialogues, secrets and lies, and the United States-led war in Iraq..."
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5010.htm

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"The end of the Assad regime would be a great gain for the United States. The regime is a bloody dictatorship that is host to Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups, Iran's only Arab ally, the route through which Iran arms Hezbollah, and a permanent threat to Lebanon's sovereignty and internal peace...."
http://www.cfr.org/syria/american-options-syria/p26226

Elliot Abrams' paper for the influential Council on Foreign Relations last year.

For the latest Brookings/Qatar paper on what the US should do per Syria:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Papers/2012/10/18%20losing%20syria%20shaikh/Shaikh%20Losing%20Syria%20english.pdf?_lang=en

An Israeli analysis of Syrian situation from Herzliya-Lauder School:
http://www.herzliyaconference.org/_Uploads/2590Bashars.pdf

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Yes.

An anarchic Syria and region gives the Israelis more opportunity to tell Americans how valuable they are as a strategic ally and bastion of "democracy." This line of propaganda is well received in Washington and provides justification for various forms of aid to Israel including the billions for "defense."

[Bill H]

Well, in this country if you try to set off a bomb that would have dropped a single bridge you are charged with "attempting to deploy weapons of mass destruction." Having evaluated the various charges brought by the USDOJ, I have decided that the critical number is eight; attempting to kill more than eight people constitutes "mass destruction."

[The beaver]

Jake

Just have to be reminded of this :

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."
-- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda, 1933-1945

[The beaver]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/108893509/BrookingsSyria0315-Syria-Saban

Are the cognoscenti ( insert sarcasm) like S.Powers at Foggy Bottom and may be the same ilk across the Potomac following the above memo à la lettre?

Looks like it.
Are some of these women in Obama's administration warmongers or psychopaths? makes one wonders!

[The beaver]

CK

S Walt has 2 articles on the Saudi/Qatar/GCC versus Iran and here is one:
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/05/oil_iran_and_stability_in_the_gulf

This reflects what I have posted up-posts wrt Brookings Institute:
1. "Which path to Persia"
and
2. "Saving Syria: Assessing Optionsor Regime" Change

[Babak Makkinejad]

I am not excusing anyone, just that this is not a recent phenomenon.

I wonder what Franco thought of the members of Abraham Lincoln Brigade; Heminyway, Gary Cooper, and all that.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Syria is not the only Iranin friend; so is Iraq, and partly Lebanon.

And then there is the friendly Christian state of Armenia - eventhough Western Armenian Diaspora is against Iran.

[Charles I]

Well, what would those interests be?

[PS]

So how long until Israel has to invade Syria in the same way it invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 to stop PLO attacks on Israel. It wouldn't necessarily be Palestinians in this case but any random Islamist group that decides to poke Israel.