The US Sponsored New Syrian Government. - Clifford Kiracofe

Washington's Soviet style "provisional government in exile": "The leaders of the old Syrian National Council, which was largely dominated by the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, had strenuously objected to having their outfit unceremoniously wound up. After days of wrangling in a luxury hotel in the Qatari capital of Doha, they were brought on board, having been promised 40 percent of the seats in the leadership.  In the end, while Hillary Clinton made much of putting together a more “representative” body to serve as a front for the US-backed war for regime-change, the new coalition amounts to the same gang of thieves, intelligence agents and Islamist politicians, refurbished with a bit of “diversity.” Seats in the leadership have been reserved for minorities, including the Alawite sect, which are overwhelmingly hostile to the so-called “rebels,” and for women.  Heading the body is a Sunni cleric, Sheikh Ahmad Mouaz al Khatib. Its vice presidents include Riad Seif, the Syrian businessman and confidante of the US embassy in Damascus who served as Washington’s standard bearer for a new “united” opposition. Its general secretary is Moustafa al-Sabagh, who was chairman of the Syrian Business Forum, a front of exiled Syrian capitalists that offered to join Qatar and Saudi Arabia in paying salaries to the Syrian “rebels.” There is no indication that any of these figures have any real connection with, much less control over, the sectarian militias, Islamic jihadists, foreign fighters and suicide bombers who are playing the principal role in waging a civil war for regime-change inside Syria. There is even less evidence that any of them have a base of popular support inside the country.  Nonetheless, they are being sent on tour to seek recognition from the Arab League and the “Friends of Syria,” comprised of Washington and its allies, as the first step toward turning the coalition into a provisional government to be installed on “liberated” Syrian soil.  Among the “principles” agreed to by those forming the new coalition is a commitment “not to take part in any dialogue or negotiations with the regime” in Damascus. This represents a direct US repudiation of the UN-brokered agreement reached in Geneva last June in which Washington committed itself to supporting “peaceful dialogue and negotiation” to bring an end to the civil war in Syria and a transition to a new constitutional order. ..."

http://syria360.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/one-week-after-us-elections-war-threats-against-syria-mount/

Any further data on the various persons in this new grouping?  Clifford Kiracofe

Comments

[mbrenner]

May I ask a simple question? What is the basis for believing that the United States is in a position to exerce any sonsequential influence on the extraordinarily complex and changeable politics of a Syria in civil war?

I do so in all innocence since I know no histiorical analogy to support Washington's premise. Nor does the available evidence support it? Nor does any conceivable logic - taking into account the above.

Is this hubris run amok, reaching its ineluctable extremity of irrationality? Is that great historian of modern Africa, Susan Rice, drawing analogies with the Congo circa 1960-1961? Or have I managed to miss something - a possibility that I do not exclude?

[turcopolier]

mbrenner

This has nothing to do with the politics of this mess. It has to do with mortars, AAA weapons, anti-tank weapons and the associated training. If the neocons and their child analysts are correct (maybe) the Syrian Army may be quite vulnerable to that. Your friend at Annapolis who has discovered that COIN preexisted 2003 contacted me. pl

[mbrenner]

Colonel

I did not mean to suggest that outside parties could not influence the campaign to unseat Assad with various forms of tangible support. Rather, I was referring to signifiacnt influence on the shape and orientation of any successor regime(s). We couldn't even accomplish that where we had direct phsyical and political control of the country - Iraq and Afghanistan.

[JohnH]

Meanwhile, it looks like other folks are holding peace talks: "Some 200 political representatives from Syrian ethnic groups, minorities and opposition, along with representatives of the Syrian government and parliament, have gathered in Tehran for a meeting dubbed 'National Syrian Dialogue Meeting.'"
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-11/18/c_131982461.htm

While the US appears to have repudiated the UN agreement calling for "peaceful dialogue and negotiation," Iran appears to be giving it a shot.

The US continues to insist that Assad surrender before there can be any talks. In other words, R2Ping Syria is preferable to negotiations.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"Turkey is expected to request on Monday that NATO missiles be placed on its border with Syria to defend against mortar rounds fired from its neighbour, Germany's defence minister said.

Only the United States, the Netherlands and Germany have the appropriate Patriot missile system available. Germany would analyse such a request "with solidarity", Defence Minister Thomas de Maiziere said.

"I expect that there will be a request from the Turkish government today to NATO to deploy Patriot Missiles to the Turkish border," he told reporters in Brussels, on the sidelines of a meeting of EU defence ministers...."
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-298624-turkey-to-request-syria-border-missiles-monday-germany-says.html

Setting hardware in place prior to the next phase of escalation...

[turcopolier]

mbrenner

I think neither the US, nor any foreign country other than S Arabia has any real chance of shaping a new Syrian government. pl

[Bill H]

Can Patriot missiles defend against mortars?

[The beaver]

CK

Hope your French is good:
http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/la-revolte-syrienne/20121119.OBS9846/syrie-des-rebelles-islamistes-rejettent-la-coalition-d-opposition.html

2 groups want an Islamist state and nothing to do with whatever plans from outsiders, I guess they are either being financed by KSA or Qatar. Will look into it more when I have time.

[Charles I]

Here's who's not in:

"Syria’s Aleppo declared ‘Islamic state’ by Islamist rebels rejecting opposition coalition"

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1289708--syrian-islamist-rebels-reject-opposition-coalition-declare-aleppo-islamic-state

[Doug Tunnell]

As if the meat grinder in Gaza isn't enough...

The new Syrian National Coalition, with growing support among the "Friends of Syria" is making Cairo its headquarters.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012111911381329715.html

A video from within Syria denouncing the group in the name of some major players on the ground has already appeared on the internet.

[Eric Dönges]

Even if they could (which I find unlikely), the several orders of magnitude cost difference between a Patriot missile and a mortar bomb make this idea ludicrous.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

For background see:

Sy Hersh's excellent 2007 New Yorker piece:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all

West Point's AQ in Iraq 2007 study:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111001074/West-Point-CTC-s-Al-Qa-ida-s-Foreign-Fighters-in-Iraq

West Point'a AQ in Iraq 2008 study:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111004557/West-Point-CTC-s-Bombers-Bank-Accounts-and-Bleedout-al-Qa-ida-s-Road-In-and-Out-of-Iraq

Hersh points out in 2007 that regime change in Syria is US policy and relates to Iran. Bush policy then, Obama policy now. Why? This is a consensus position of the foreign policy Establishment.

Both West Point studies do a reasonable job on AQ so just apply them to the present situation in Syria. Is anyone surprised by Syria?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"Parmi les 14 organisations signataires de cet appel figurent notamment Liwa al Tawhid, Front al-Nosra et Kataëb Ahrar Cham."...

Beaver,

Many thanks for this heads up. Started learning French as a child, my first foreign language. I worked on several books with a late French colleague.

So 14 radical Islamist organizations against the new coalition. And the two above cited are said to be the most active. I haven't noticed this in the US press. I guess US journalists are just too incompetent when it comes to foreign affairs. Or too busy being stenographers for Susan Rice and O's foreign policy team...

We need more data on the "opposition" with whom we "share values" as well as our on "freedom fighter" allies the terrorist Islamist orgs some of whom seem linked to AQ. Like those two mentioned in the article.

This article ties into Charles1's article.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Well, they seem to be using the word missiles now and perhaps they also mean aircraft?

"

German soldiers could be sent from their barracks in northern Germany to the Turkish-Syrian border. The government in Ankara is expected to make an official request for the deployment at a NATO meeting in Brussels on Monday.

One or two of the German units could make up part of a multinational system sent to Turkey. Such a deployment would "serve to protect" Turkey, said de Maiziere. But being stationed in Turkey would be more dangerous than the base in northern Germany and would risk pulling Berlin into the Syrian civil war."
http://www.dw.de/german-patriot-missiles-could-defend-turkey/a-16387241

I guess there is some nostaliga here...Hamburg to Baghdad Railroad and all that...

[turcopolier]

Clifford

I have been told that the leaders in most of the supposedly non-Islamist groups are Muwahiddun. That's how they get the money from SA and Qatar. pl

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Thank you, that explains many things.

I noticed Amb. Crocker expressed concern about the composition of the provisional government supported by the US.

The Euros are taking an interesting position in which the EU seems to endorse the provisional government but each individual member state can decide for itself on formal diplomatic recognition.

Considering the traditional diversity in Syria, it is hard to imagine the majority wish to fall under the domination of the Saudi and Qatari Wahhabis.

The Kurdish factor I imagine adds further complications.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Charles I,

Yes, it is hard to sort out all the religous factors and factions.

A glance at Wiki raises all manner of questions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Syria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria

So far, according to the press reports, the new National grouping is 40 percent the old grouping and then 60 percent something new. We are somewhat familiar with the old group by now but the new grouping is as yet opaque. This is not to mention all of the various jihadis who are there but who do not follow the new grouping, or the old one, and just do their own thing.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Wiki update:
"...At its creation in November 2012, the National Coalition elected Moaz al-Khatib as its president, Riad Seif and Suheir Atassi as vice-presidents, and Mustafa Sabbagh as secretary-general.[1] As of 20 November 2012, the coalition plans to have a 60-member council, of which 22 members are to be from the Syrian National Council.[1]

The main aims of the National Coalition are replacing the Bashar al-Assad government and "its symbols and pillars of support", "dismantling the security services", unifying and supporting the Free Syrian Army, refusing dialogue and negotiation with the al-Assad government, and "holding accountable those responsible for killing Syrians, destroying [Syria], and displacing [Syrians].[3]
"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Coalition_for_Syrian_Revolutionary_and_Opposition_Forces

US Statement, 11 November:

"Press Statement
Mark C. Toner
Deputy Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC

November 11, 2012

The United States congratulates the representatives of the Syrian people on the formation of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. We look forward to supporting the National Coalition as it charts a course toward the end of Assad’s bloody rule and the start of the peaceful, just, democratic future that all the people of Syria deserve. We will work with the National Coalition to ensure that our humanitarian and non-lethal assistance serves the needs of the Syrian people. We also commend the Government of Qatar for its steadfast leadership and support of this conference."
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/11/200435.htm

So where is a list of the 60 names? Split out for the 22 from the former org, and the rest new?

Where is the list of names?

Here is their website which is "under construction":
http://www.etilaf.org/

With all the money they have, they can't get a website up and running?

Where is the list of names? Where is the analysis of the list?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"Yassin is a member of the Liwa al-Tawhid, or Brigade of Unity, part of the FSA. The brigade operates primarily in the eastern and central sections of Aleppo. Like most of the fighters with Liwa al-Tawhid, Yassin is from the surrounding area and didn't know his way around the city when the FSA advanced into Syria's economic capital about three weeks ago..."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/inside-aleppo-with-syrian-rebel-fighters-a-850002.html

"Al-Nusra Front (Arabic: جبهة النصرة لأهل الشام‎ Jabhat al-Nuṣrāh li-ahl ash-Sham, meaning: "Front for the protection of the people of Greater Syria") is a jihadist paramilitary group of al-Qaeda[1] formed late in 2011 during the Syrian Uprising. The group released their first public statement on 24 January 2012 in which they called for armed struggle against the Syrian government. The group claims responsibility for the 2012 Aleppo bombings, the January 2012 al-Midan bombing, the March 2012 Damascus bombings[2] the murder of journalist Mohammed al-Saeed [3] and possibly the 10 May 2012 Damascus bombings (see below)."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nusra_Front

"Kataeb Ahrar Al-Sham is part of the 'Free Syrian Army' and shares an Al-Qaeda ideology with several other militant factions in Syria. Here they detonate a roadside bomb and say that "The Boss" Al-Sabourah (مدير نحية الصبورة) was travelling in the car. It is questionable if these people really have access to intelligence to know who is travelling in the car. However, recent news reports leaked that the British are providing intelligence to the terrorists in order to help them with their campaign of assassinations and bombings."
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c02_1346531991

" Mujahideen and FSA storm jointly Alawite barracks in Aleppo

Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra together with the rebels storm Alawites. Fightings in Aleppo are taking place under the command of the Mujahideen, writes UmmaNews.

Islamic sources reported about a major operation carried out by the Mujahideen of Jabhat al-Nusra in Aleppo jointly with brigades al-Fajr al-Islam, Kataeb Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid and Liwa al-Fatah, who are believed to be affiliated with the rebels of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). "
http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2012/09/10/16661_print.html

So we have heard about the new political grouping, but what about the old FSA and its jihadi allies?

[turcopolier]

Clifford

A note on terminology: The Arabic words, katiba/kataeb (pl), liwa/alwiya (pl), firqa/ firqaat (maybe pl)mean respectively - battalion, brigade and division but in the guerrilla context the words don't tell you anything about the number of men in the group. pl

[Cliffiord Kiracofe]

Thank you, I do not find so far much information in the press about these groups. The various names are used frequently but as you point out there is no real description of the groups in terms of their manpower, weapons, national origins, capabilities, and so on.

Thus we have a political organization composed in part of the old one with new personalities and a military organization from the old group FSA, plus other armed groups.

In both cases, there is virtually no information about the personalities involved.

Yet, France and the UK have recognized the new political group as the "sole legitimate rep" of the Syrian people. Thus 60 unnamed persons have been recognized as the provisional government.

The German press reports that the Social Democrat Party and the Greens are objecting to the Patriot missile deployment. I do not notice this debate covered in the US press.

Further, the German press indicates that parliament would have to vote on the deployment so it is not automatic should NATO approve.

Presumably there are some US journalists based in Berlin who are in a position to notice this and write about it.

[Charles I]

. . .each individual member state can decide for itself on formal diplomatic recognition."

Britain steps up with forma recognition of the new, er, government.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1290240--syria-s-opposition-group-formally-recognized-by-u-k

[DH]

re Khatib

"In an attempt to have its communal cake and eat it too, SNCORF announced that this inclusive grouping would be headed by a Sunni cleric, an ex-imam of the Umayyad Mosque, one Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, who appeared in a suit and tie to advertise, if not his secularism, his secular-friendly taste in attire.

A throwback in a suit
Judging from the comments of Asad Abu Khalil , the acerbic "Angry Arab" observer of Middle East shenanigans, the motto for SNCORF and America's Syria policy may well turn out to be "Reorganize in Haste ... Repent at Leisure".

Abu Khalil reported on several interesting items he gleaned from al-Khatib's web postings:
["]I spent last night reading the writings of ... Ahmad Ma'adh Al-Khatib: a clear follower of the Muslim Brotherhood and a disciple of Yusuf Al-Qaradawi [an important theological mentor to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood]. He has many views that his Western sponsors did not know about. Take his treatise on masturbation here: he maintains that this "sinister habit" causes tuberculosis and tears down the flesh.

Here, Mr Ahmad Ma'adh Al-Khatib calls for Jihad to rescue the ummah [the posting referred to now appears to be inaccessible]. Enjoy him, please, especially those in Western governments which approved him and promoted him without reading a word of his writings.

I am sure that the US Zionists who approved the appointment of Mr Al-Khatib as head of the exile Syrian opposition did not know that he referred to Zionism as a "cancerous racist movement."["]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak01.html

[DH]

re Khatib:

"In an attempt to have its communal cake and eat it too, SNCORF announced that this inclusive grouping would be headed by a Sunni cleric, an ex-imam of the Umayyad Mosque, one Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, who appeared in a suit and tie to advertise, if not his secularism, his secular-friendly taste in attire.

A throwback in a suit
Judging from the comments of Asad Abu Khalil , the acerbic "Angry Arab" observer of Middle East shenanigans, the motto for SNCORF and America's Syria policy may well turn out to be "Reorganize in Haste ... Repent at Leisure".

Abu Khalil reported on several interesting items he gleaned from al-Khatib's web postings:
["]I spent last night reading the writings of ... Ahmad Ma'adh Al-Khatib: a clear follower of the Muslim Brotherhood and a disciple of Yusuf Al-Qaradawi [an important theological mentor to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood]. He has many views that his Western sponsors did not know about. Take his treatise on masturbation here: he maintains that this "sinister habit" causes tuberculosis and tears down the flesh.

Here, Mr Ahmad Ma'adh Al-Khatib calls for Jihad to rescue the ummah [the posting referred to now appears to be inaccessible]. Enjoy him, please, especially those in Western governments which approved him and promoted him without reading a word of his writings.

I am sure that the US Zionists who approved the appointment of Mr Al-Khatib as head of the exile Syrian opposition did not know that he referred to Zionism as a "cancerous racist movement."["]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak01.html

[The Twisted Genius]

This whole situation is eerily similar to our regime change policy in Iraq as it developed in the last years of the Clinton administration. The mantra at that time was anybody but Saddam. That was it. The only refinement to that was to add nor his two sons. That policy, coupled with healthy doses of ignorance and errors lead us to what we now have in Iraq. We are doing the same thing in Syria... anybody but Assad. Now it's even worse. We can see who the anybody but Assad will probably be. This whole new Syrian government lash up is just propaganda theater to allow us to pretend to be blissfully ignorant while we pursue our policy of anybody but Assad.

I doubt anybody in the West knows the actual make up of the forces arrayed against Assad. As Colonel Lang alluded to, any smart resistance will keep their actual strength, organization and leadership secret as long as possible. We were asking who was the Syrian resistance a year ago. At that time, I said, "reports of al Qaeda fighters and foreign intelligence agencies operating with the Syrian insurgents are greatly exaggerated." I may or may not have been woefully wrong with my earlier assessment, but it certainly is not the case now. The resistance is swarming with Salafists, al Qaeda affiliated foreign fighters and lots of Saudi and Qatari money. This is the mix from which the anybody in the anybody but Assad will arise.