Syria, France, Gaza, Natanyahu and Obama

"After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead."  Jeffrey White

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"... while regime forces are stretched thin,"

White's conclusion that the Syrian Army is "stretched thin" is based on a belief that most of the Syrian Army is unreliable and cannot be used in counter-guerrilla operations.   If that is true and if only 30% or 50% of the Army is usable, then the failure of the government to mount a continuous series of operations to clear the north of rebel forces is understandable.  White does not make it clear what the basis is for his judgment that large parts of the Syrian Army are unreliable.  He is a meticulous analyst and i am sure that he has some solid basis for this judgment.  There are parts of various governments who have the means to know exactly which Syrian units have been employed and with what frequency.  Is this article a reflection of that kind of certain knowledge? 

White also opines that foreign assistance to the rebels would have a significant effect on the outcome of the war.  Well, of course it would.  The Syrian forces are very dependant on their equipment;  aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery pieces to be exact.  Training and equipping of the rebels with weaponry that is effective against these systems  would be very effective and possibly decisive.  The training could be done in Turkey or Jordan.  France has recognised the rebel kaleidoscope of groups as the government of Syria.  Is this a prelude to French action in this area?  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-internal-war-turns-against-the-regime

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"The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed Obama and is forcing a reset of their mutual equations even before the US president gets started on his second term in the White House.  Asia Times

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Yes, the Gaza attacks are about Obama and not about HAMAS.  Natanyahu is demonstrating to BHO that he can do as he pleases and that the Congress will back him and not the president of the United States.  It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything.  pl  

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak03.html

 

Comments

[FB Ali]

I agree fully that the Gaza air assault is mainly about sticking it to Obama. Taking out Hamas etc commanders, militants and rocket sites is an added bonus.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Col., what do you know about the WI's underlying ideology, if any? Their blandly-written "About" statement doesn't tell us much. As for Mr. White, did you know him at all during your DIA days? From his CVs he doesn't appear to be a neocon.

[LeaNder]

thanks, a lot for your comment about Netanyahu, Pat.

I actually get quite mad at our media, I hoped there might be a beam of light, when a German TV correspondent from Israel corrected a misleading statement by the news crew a couple of weeks ago. Although I am sure, it slipped attention, it would have slipped mine slightly over a decade ago. The basic positions had been hammered in already.

From the little I witnessed, we are back to the usual Hasbara. German TV-wise Hamas staged a coup against Fatah? Really? Is that how it happened? Israel the frontier of the Western civilization in the Middle East?

I would like to have a megaphone to blurt out the content of "David Rose, The Gaza bombshell", so everybody would understand that this is completely misleading information. Was I completely mistaken when I read it in April 2008?
http://tinyurl.com/Rose-Gaza-bombshell
Was I a victim of an evil US military/CIA/FBi disinformation campaign? Stirring my paranoid mind?

Strictly Wikipedia get's the fact right:
http://tinyurl.com/Wikipedia-Hamas
As I remember them too.

But I am to believe our journalists can not with their much better access to news data bases know this too?

Election or Iran Phase I, or simply as you suggest a revenge at the Americans that voted for Obama?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37585.html

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing an election in January 2013 had clearly put the Gaza attack plans on low gear until after the US Presidential election, following which Israel virtually immediately embarked upon a series of military provocations including sending tanks into Gaza on November 8th that killed a Palestinian child, then 2 days later fired a number of shells into Gaza killing a 4 civilians and wounding 38 others. The trigger for Gaza retaliation was the targeted assassinations of Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari who was killed by a missile that was followed by an extensive bombing campaign to inflame Hamas into retaliating with longer range rockets."

Not a peep about war context on our TV, quite the opposite, a deliberate set up. The news report that follows is a report on Iran, that seems to justify Netanyahu's cartoon. Fair and Balanced media? Not a peep how it started, again. I am not watching TV much. But how exactly does it work that our TV news crews don't even know what Wikipedia knows, I ask myself?

Besides, I noticed that the most ardent pro-Zimmerman hardliners, blogwise, are also celebrating Israel's latest success story. Of course combined with US power, the Iron Dome that saved Tel Aviv. They even changed from an American flag design to something vaguely resembling desert colors:
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/
The home front!

In his multitude of--how many?--standing ovations in the US congress Netanyahu always allowed Americans to ultimately celebrate themselves. At least that was my fast impression from an outside perspective.

[jr786]

Another man or donkey moment. As one of 'those people' Col., I can't help but reckon that Obama giving the zionists a free hand is the quid pro quo for them not making his life difficult in the run-up to the election.

What's the over and under on dead Palestinian children this time?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

The French and Brits appear to want the US to do the heavy lifting and drag us into their Sykes-Picot project. Cameron turned up his rhetoric conveniently just after the US election, Hollande and Sarko (behind the scenes) are full tilt.

Perhaps White might give us an assessment of the post-Assad era...Livni and Indyk were quoted a while back as saying Obama would, after his reelection, launch the Iran war this coming spring...(???)...presumably the WINEP folks with their close ties to Israel may know something.

Obama did nothing when campaigning and post election the first time in 2008 as Israel trashed Gaza in Operation Cast Lead. Congress being in the pocket of the pro-Israel Lobby behaves accordingly, nothing new there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_War

Obama has done nothing about settlements in four years. His incompetent and blustering UN ambassador seems to spend most of her time throwing fits of one sort or another and defending Israel.

Perhaps a "splendid little war" in the Middle East is in the offing...but it may not stay so little for long or be so splendid.

[par4]

Maybe the Russians will decide to kick some French ass.

[Walrus]

If Obama wants to call Netanyahu, for example by requiring AIPAC to register, he is going to need an administration full of "untouchables" who don't want public office in the future.

[DH]

"It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything. pl"

Get Rice confirmed and let Israel jump the shark one more time.

From another AT article:

"It bears noting that Iran may have a strong interest in drawing Israel into a narrower regional conflict, hoping at the very least to erode further the Jewish state's international support for a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear facilities in the spring. The United States, on the other hand, is trying to keep the lid on the tensions and to reassure Israel of continued support against the missile threat posed primarily by Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. In that vein, the two countries launched four Patriot anti-missile missiles on Monday, as part of the ongoing "largest joint exercise ever carried out by the two countries"."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK14Ak01.html

[toto]

Sir,

My home country seems to think that, by granting official recognition to the saner face of the rebellion, we may help them prevail against the more vociferous elements.

The newly-appointed head of the Syrian opposition has been making all the right noises during his recent trip to Paris. He may even be sincere. Whether that will suffice against the Salafis, their aptitude at establishing "facts on the ground" and their deep-pocketed sponsors, I don't know.

[turcopolier]

ex-pfc Chuck

WINEP is a wholly owned subsidiary of AIPAC. Whether or nt that is true legally I know not but it is neverheless true. I knew Jeff White very well at DIA. He was an SES in the J-2 part of DIA. They mainly did current intelligence analysis for the Joint Staff. He has long auto-specialized in wars involving Israel and is really skilled. He is a graduate of UVa. not a Zionist, nor a neocon. He has a good job at WINEP and they are lucky to have him. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

Israelis are demonstrating that they are supreme realists; having concluded that US is impotent agianst them and now are demonstrating that to the entire world.

Furthermore, they are also driving home the complete and utter helplessness and powerlessness of the Arabs - regardless of their pretensions otherwise since the so-called Arab Awakening.

Muslim Brotherhood, specifically, is now exposed as good on rhetoric but empty of substance; in Egypt, in Tunisia, in Jordan, and specially in Turkey.

I am not surprised at all.

[JohnH]

All of which shows the depravity of the former colonial powers, France and Britain. Both economies are tanking, and all they can do is start a "nice little war?" And French "Socialists" being in bed with British "Conservatives?" What's that all about?

This is very bizarre behavior, which suggests that European "leaders" have either totally lost their bearings or are getting very, very desperate.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The labels socialist or conservative no longers mean much in Europe.

These are two substanceless labels for the same high-flying elite men and women in Italy, in France, in Spain, and in UK.

They play their politics against the background of plebs who are essentially spectators in this sham.

[Babak Makkinejad]

No chance of that.

It seems that the war in Syria is going to go on for years.

[Al Arabist]

I don't know any arabist or syrian who thinks this Khatib guy will do the job in syria. Far better would be a fighter, preferably a mercenary who is fighting right now. ALL of the syrian ex-pats in France have no credibility in syria mostly because nobody's ever heard of them!!!

BTW, who gave france the position of leader in the "syria portfolio" internationally? The russians and chinese pretend to be ambassadors, the turks shoot, the qataris pay, the saudis do the islamic spin, the americans knit their brows and talk, israel vetoes and runs intelligence with the jordanians and lebanese. i keep telling my in laws, "you guys are totally on your own this time." they'd just as soon have asad as king forever with some praetorian guard keeping the peace. swiss guard available?

[turcopolier]

babak

Revolutions win when the government side collapses due to a failure of confidence and will. pl

[CK]

'Tis a shame that the Syrians and the Lebanese could not do to France what the Vietnamese did to France. Ah I remember Dien Bien Phu as if it were only 58 years ago.
The French have the lead whenever it is one of their ex-colonies/dependencies/vichys that is having the vapours.

[mbrenner]

It is always risky to base assessments of a state's international behavior on a reading of personality. That said, there is abundant evidence that the key to what the United States does in regard to Israel will be determined by the character of Barack Obama. Yes, there are objective political constraints. Equally, though, there is no lobby tied to a foreign power that can resist a President from acting in the American national ineterst where and when he has reasonable grounds to do so - and he has a reasonable ability to communicate them. In addition, it is not a question of the President committing to an action that directly puts Americans in danger. It is more a matter of words expressed with conviction. Moreover,lLet us make the error of assuming that the willfulness of the Israeli government, and the population, is so powerfulas to be impervious to clear declarations by Washington. They will blink.

So, Mr. Obama? Let's not beat around the vbush - he is a coward, not just re Israel, but also the Wall Street barons,re the Republican Congress, re the Pentagon brass. Today, even after the election he is desperately seeking compromise with the REpublican leadership that entails selling out Social Security and Medicare. Conclusion: he will do nothing to rein in the latest Israeli assault on Gaza. You don't grow a backbone overnight.

[Babak Makkinejad]

May be this was a revolution 10 months ago, it is not so now - in my opinion.

Collapse is unlikely in my opinion - for a number of reasons; chief among them them that collapse means massacares to very many.

I guess we must watch and wait.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

JohnH,

Yes, well they have been depraved for a long time. Perhaps a "splendid little war" in the Middle East is what the Euros and transnational elites calculate will mitigate the collapsing socio-economic situation in Greece, Spain and save the Euro and so on.

French politics is complicated. First one needs to know of which "loge" a politician is a member. Hollande and Sarko are full tilt for the Syria project. Some French socialists are close to the British Fabians of whom Tony Blair seems a vector. Some French socialist politicians are Anglophile via their "loge" affiliation and so on. Complicated analysis and not easy, very opaque. The only expert analyst (a European) of this realm I knew passed away some years ago.

The behavior is normal in the sense that transnational elites work to develop a consensus on policy. Thus: UK, France, Euros, US and so on. The consensus as stated by Obama and other leaders is that regime change is the objective of policy. Moscow and Beijing have not fallen into line with this consensus so far.

[Fred]

Well if you can't beat Iran on your own you can sure bash the wogs, its not like anyone in America will hear about them, or care.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Elites, yes and serious analysis is useful.

The Italian, Monti, is an interesting case. European head of the Trilateral Commission, member of Bilderberg...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Monti

Transnational elites.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Russians enjoy chess. Perhaps they will just let the "West" sink into the quagmire. The Chinese can also take a pass.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think it is not very sensible to expect a politican - specially a very gigted one - to expend political capital when he will not receive any benefits from those expenditures - nary, such actions might come to harm him.

[mo]

Colonel,
I can definitely confirm that the numbers of deployed Syrian army troops has been limited so far. In Aleppo, there were no more than 4000 Syrian troops fighting the battles.
I think more than anything, Assad recognizes that this will be a war of attrition and he has no idea how easy or difficult it will be to keep the numbers of troops up to the level needed so I think they are using troops sparingly so as not suffer large losses, rather than a lack of training.

The situation in Gaza has of course shown the hypocrisy of the western governments. While Hamas, who by resisting occupation through arms, a right by both international and moral law, are told to lay down and surrender before negotiations can begin, the Syrian revolutionaries are told to fight on and bring down Assad. Of course Israel is the common denominator.

Meanwhile, if this war was to be Netanyahu election highlight it has already backfired. The use by Hamas and Islamic Jihad of the Fajr 5 has had a profound effect on the socialites of Tel Aviv and I doubt it will be long before we get the blame game between Hetanyahu and Barak.

Finally, I think this attack on Gaza is more than a stick it to Obama (although that im sure is a bonus). I think the moment Hamas sold themselves to Qatar and moved there (by the way how many sanctions has Qatar suffered for being a state sponsor of terrorism?) this plan was hatched. The fact that Hamas had the final blueprint of a settlement on a long-term ceasefire evidently let some Hamas commanders to drop their guard. And I think that was the point.