Say Goodbye to Romney.

Fearless forecast for tomorrow's election and whatever the lawyering may be thereafter:

- Obama/Biden wins in the electoral college by at least 290 votes.

- The Democrats retain control of the senate.

- Virginia elects Tim Kaine to be a US Senator.   pl

 

Comments

[Lars]

I concur. Unfortunately, it will also cause widespread psychosis among those convinced that Mr. Romney would win in a landslide and I have talked to quite a few of those.

The good news for them is that Obamacare covers pre-existing conditions.

[Al Spafford]

In Va. Nate Silvers' FiveThirtyEight blog (NYT) reports Obama leading in 4 polls on Sunday, 3 of which show improving trends--giving Obama a 75% chance of winning the state. By taking Va., Obama could lose in Ohio and still take the Elect Coll.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/in-virginia-its-tradition-versus-change/#more-36977

[confusedponderer]

I wish for Obama to win, for the sole reason that Romney would be far worse. Good luck.

I look forward in disgust to the inevitable vote suppression shenanigans the R's will be trying to pull off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

He means it. This is as valid today as it was then.

[mj]

Xin Loi Mr Romney, perhaps if you had been in the Paris of the Orient instead of the Paris of. . . Fronce!

[The Moar You Know]

There will be much lawyering, but not year 2000 lawyering - the action will all be downticket. I am surprised at your prediction that Kaine takes it, but I learned years ago to my regret that you need to listen to the sane locals, they know better than anyone how it's going to turn out.

I like the tax return picture, but that's not what killed Romney. It was his cowardice. Can anyone tell me where he stands on any issue? I can't for the life of me. Pick an issue, he's been on all sides of it. He might have been the greatest president of all time, for all I know, but he never gave me any indication of what he was going to do.

And "I'm not Obama" isn't even close to being a compelling reason. That was obvious from the start.

[Richard Armstrong]

The NY Times has an interactive guide to the 512 possible paths to victory through the "battleground" states.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share

[Farmer Don]

Nate Silver has Obama at 85% to win.
Intrade.com has Obama shares at 65% to win.
Hoping to make money on the spread by putting a few $$$ on Obama.
Also shorted Assad not being President of Syria on 12/31/2012. That cost me 35%.(Means people are saying there is a 65% chance he still will be there at the end of the year.)
Oops Obama up to 67% now in the last few min.

[Jose]

WMR 50% BHO 49% Other 1%

EV Who ever wins Ohio will win.

Senate R +/- 1

Hose R +6 -0

Who ever wins Virginia will determine who wins the Senate seat.

FL D will hold Senate, Mack is a disaster.

No Triangulation, no great compromise, recession regardless of who wins.

Christie is toast!

[r whitman]

The 2016 election begins on Wednesday. If WMR wins just the Democrats. If BHO wins its the Dems and the Reps. Something to look foward to.

[Al Spafford]

Having recently settled for most of the yr in Oregon, I am amazed that the rest of the states have not adopted Oregon's vote by mail system:
1) no polling places with lines
2) weather proof
3) ballots that are lost or stolen can be voided and new ballot issued
4) Cost to taxpayers MUCH lower as polling places with staff are not needed
5) about as "fraud proof" as can be developed
6) voter can take time to look over ballot and do research
7) vote by mail vote has worked out VERY WELL here
Repubs would resist idea, but conservative voters would see significant taxpayer $$ savings

[Jose]

Most states are stupid, had a girlfriend from Oregon explain how simple it is. Declaring a victor can take a couple of days. lol

[Jose]

Forgot to add, in an earlier post I suggested Rob Portman as VP. Had my suggestion been taken, game over!

[Bobo]

Jose

Your numbers are pretty good though the top one will be opposite as Gary will take at least 1%. If only Jeb would of run as he is someone we all could vote for. The Republicans are toast unless they learn to expand their party which will be a very hard pill to swallow.
May the best man win.

Bobo

[ked]

clearly, the franchise must be filtered so to fabricate the final fix.

[elkern]

I really want to vote in person, at a public place, with my fellow citizens. Wave at people I recognise, see and joke with others that I would otherwise never see.

Ritual is important, and "going to the polls" is THE primal ritual of representative Democracy. It reminds us who WE are.

Election costs are trivial compared to the campaigns. I'm glad we pay a bunch of our elders to run the show once a year.

[Richard Armstrong]

My daughter who will be voting in her first election tomorrow asked me an interesting question.

If Romney is elected would he swear his oath of office on the Bible or the Book of Mormon?

Hmmmm?

[Al Spafford]

If Obama wins the far right will continue to see him as an illegitimate President. After all, he will have been elected by the votes of blacks, Hispanics, single women (why were they given the vote!) and college educated (book learned fools!) The white dudes out there did not vote for him and that is the real Amerika after all! Look at that HUGE swath of red states that Romney took. Perhaps only a 3/4th or 1/2 vote value should be given to the non-white dudes out there. in that sprinkling of blue states. Political sumed it up well:
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2012/11/white-man-date#.UJawbUNc9tw.twitter

[Al Spafford]

The much higher rate of voting that by mail provides makes "representative Democracy" a better reflection of "who we are". You can still hand deliver your ballot to the clerk's office on election day (or before) to celebrate the "ritual"

[Al Spafford]

Obama wins. Then in '16 it will be Christy making fools of the usual Repub clowns that show up for the primary and Hilary for the Dems, after she gets a couple yrs rest from SoS job (it runs too deep in her AND BILL'S blood!)

[jon]

Col., do your fearless predictions extend to which pres. candidate will prevail in VA?

Al Spatford, FDR was never accepted by Republicans or conservatives, who continued to battle him tooth and nail throughout his administration. A traitor to his class. Periods of legislative comity and electoral decorum are rather scarce in US history. Not always so gridlocked as now, I will grant.

[Fred]

Jeb? I remember Walkin' Lawton making him cry. Remember, "the ol' He-Coon walks just before the light of day." ? Jeb represent rural and Northern Florida? Right, he learned all about that in Miami. He'd treat the rest of the US just the same. I'll definitely take a pass on another Bush.

[Al Spafford]

The far right sure had a tizzy of US Rep Ellison (D, Minn) swearing in with a Koran! Then they found out it was Thomas Jefferson's personal Koran, borrowed from the Library of Congress!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/03/AR2007010300075.html

Maybe Romney can use Smith's Book of Mormon!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_of_Mormon

[Redhand]

"Say Goodbye to Romney"

It can't come fast enough for me.

[r whitman]

Even though I am a Hillary fan, she may be past her "sell by" date by then.

[Lars]

I wonder why the US is unable to create a world class voting process?