Hezbollah chief warns Israel

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel Sunday that any war with Lebanon would see thousands of rockets fired on Israeli cities.

Nasrallah's televised warning comes just days after a tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the end of Ashura, a religious holiday for Shia Muslims.

“If the confrontation in the Gaza Strip given its blockade included missiles reaching 40 to 70 kilometers [into Israel], then the radius of a battle with us will reach occupied Palestine [Israel] from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea,” Nasrallah said, according to the Daily Star.

“From Kiryat Shmona to Eilat,” he continued, in reference to Israel's most northern and southern cities.

Nasrallah has previously warned that it now has an arsenal of weapons that could reach Israel's largest city Tel Aviv."  Global Post

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Israel and the "Israel Friendly Community" should take this warning seriously. 

"As of 2010[update], the Israeli government believed Hezbollah had an arsenal of more than 15,000 long-range rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon. Some of these missiles were said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat." Wiki on Hizbullah  

Israel's nightmare ought to be a situation in which war with both HAMAS and Hizbullah ocurs and 20,000 odd artillery rockets and short range ballistic missiles are fired at their population centers,  Iron Dome worked reasonably well against HAMAS artillery rockets, but even at the end of hostilities after a week of bombardment by Israel, HAMAS was still firing salvos of rockets at Israeli targets.  HAMAS has buried pre-aimed rockets that are very difficult for the Israelis to locate before they are fired.

A war in which both Islamist groups "unloads" the whole inventory at Israel would produce high casualties and much damage in Israel.

Would there be a lot of damage in Lebanon?  Yes.  Would that deter Hizbullah?  No.  pl  

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121125/hezbollah-chief-warns-israel-marking-e

 

 

Comments

[Cal]

My impression from all various experts is that all it would take to seriously torch Israel is enough missiles and varied kinds of missiles fired at the same time. Is this accurate?

[Charles I]

Its a very small country. Remember the forest fires on the news last year? An "unprecedented disaster" comparable to the War in 2006 Lebanon. See:

"Israel forest fire kills dozens near Haifa

About 40 people have died in what is thought to be Israel's largest ever forest fire, police have said.

Many of the victims were prison guards travelling on a bus which was caught in the inferno in the Carmel Mountains near the northern city of Haifa.

Thousands of people, including prison inmates, have been evacuated from the area.

Scores more have been injured, the ambulance service said. The cause of the blaze was not immediately known.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has visited the affected area, said it was an "unprecedented disaster".

The BBC's Jon Donnison in the region says the Israel's emergency services have not had to handle an operation on sunch a scale since the war in Lebanon in 2006."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11901750

[JohnH]

You can bet that Hezbollah targets would include the Leviathan gas platforms in the Mediterranean, which are set to make Israel a major player in international energy markets. These platforms are exposed like sitting ducks.

It boggles the mind why Israel insists on continuously provoking destructive fights with its neighbors, since it is Israel itself that will be increasingly exposed to the potential for ever more destruction as time goes on.

It seems that nothing will change Israeli behavior short of an all-out war that fully saps Israeli belligerence.

[jonst]

If I were the Israelis I would take what Hassan Nasrallah is saying very seriously. And Hassan Nasrallah, too, better take--very seriously--the implications of what he saying.

This seems like a deadly, stupid, and unpredictable game of chicken forming. And if I were Iran...I would take very seriously, the implications of what Hassan Nasrallah is saying.

Beyond a certain point, or pushed to a certain point, all hell, literally, could break out in all directions. Hassan Nasrallah, and other leaders of nations, might be deep in their bunkers. But what of the civilian populations of all the nations in question?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

IMO, Israel is very vulnerable to chemical warfare.

[mbrenner]

I think that we should bear in mind that all the misjudgments and hubris displayed by Israel are ascribable to the Obama administration as well. Surely they knew that Pillar of Cloud was planned. Yet there is not the slightest indication that any cautionary message was sent by Washington. On the contrary, Obama went out of his way to justify and thereby encourage the Israelis.

This has gone unremarked in the media.Instead, the line that has been propogated by the White House and swallowed whole by the press is that the President displayed leadership, that he bonded with Mursi in a way that augurs well for American policies in the Middle East(before Mursi's latest crackdown) and that now Obama can and will move assertively to resolve the Palestinian issue.According to the new conventional wisdom he experienced an epihany- somewhere between Yangon and Pnom Penh. For the Chosen One, of course, epiphanies might be expected to occur anywhere at any time.

[Charles I]

The epiphany I've had is that now that Hamas is a legitimated governmental player, the advent of AQ & sundry jihadis in Sinai and Gaza is just in time to ensure there will be no peace, and it can be blamed on Hamas, now officially entrusted with keeping the peace. Israel can't control settlement expansion, yet one may nevertheless now blame Hamas for jihadi infractons. I just came came across some reporting in der Speigel summarizing the Israeli press on the point.

". . . Simon Shiffer, the veteran writer for Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, writes that Hamas has now become the most influential Palestinian power because Netanyahu has undertaken negotiations with them while ignoring the Palestinian Authority and its President Mahmoud Abbas. . .

Shiffer's colleague at Yedioth, Alex Fishman, would seem to agree. "Hamas has morphed from the enemy that must be brought down to the enemy that is the lesser of two evils," Fishman writes. Although Israel's official position remains that of not recognizing Hamas as a potential negotiating partner, he writes, Israeli leadership has now used the group to exert control over even more radical groups in the Gaza Strip. "Until just a few days ago, such ideas would have been considered blasphemy," Fishman writes."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israeli-press-declares-hamas-came-out-ahead-on-ceasefire-a-868728.html

I've become terribly cynical in my time here.

[Charles I]

but impervious to reason or sanction.

[turcopolier]

Charles I

We always must remember that the Izzies were the sponsors and encouragers of HAMAS. pl

[Charles I]

or as its put here, Hamas' Conundrum

Part 2: Hamas' Conundrum

Hamas, on the other hand, has developed into a political entity, one that wants to be heard and have a seat at the table, and to be taken seriously on the international stage. This is the main reason that the organization, under Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, agreed to secret talks with Israeli negotiators. Only recently, representatives of both sides came together in Cairo at a meeting set up by Egyptian intelligence. The Hamas leadership must know that it can't win a war against Israel. And Israel, for its part, must realize that it needs the organization if it doesn't want to see Gaza taken over by far more radical groups.

But Hamas' more extremist adversaries and hardliners within its own ranks would perceive its agreeing to a cease-fire too early as a betrayal of the Islamic cause, especially after the targeted killing of Hamas military leader Ahmed Jabari last Wednesday, which set off the most recent escalation.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israeli-attacks-put-new-balance-of-power-in-mideast-to-test-a-868041-2.html

[Charles I]

Same as in Lebanon, why do you think I, paranoic, am so cynical at this juncture? Scorpions within a bottle within a bottle.

[Paul Escobar]

To all,

In some Guardian & AP reports, I have read that Hamas has explicitly refused to engage in any Israel-Iran conflict. Furthermore, Iranian material support to them is said to have ceased very recently.

What is the accuracy of such reports?

[Alba Etie]

Mr Kiracofe ,
And if chemical weapons were used on Israel - would it follow that the Likudniks would retaliate with nuclear weapons ?

[robt willmann]

It appears that Nasrallah is a man of his word and is not just another bloviating politician. Even former Israeli defense minister and then infrastructure minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer supposedly told Israeli army radio that Nasrallah should be taken seriously.

http://www.albawaba.com/news/minister-israel-takes-seriously-nasrallah-”big-surprise”-warning

http://www.counterpunch.org/2007/08/20/nasrallah-s-surprise/

Nasrallah is also an example of why a governmental policy of assassinating political leaders of other countries or political groups is usually counterproductive. His predecessor was killed by Israel and who knows who else in order to weaken Hizbullah and perhaps put it out of business. But what happened? The place of the assassinated leader was taken by Nasrallah, who turned out to be much more effective, and the result was that Israel was slapped in its 2006 invasion of Lebanon and Hizbullah is now an integrated part of the Lebanese government.

The current posture of Hizbullah in Lebanon is also an indicator that little by little, Arab countries and groups are getting more organized, strategic, and creative in their positions and actions regarding Israel. On the other hand, Israel is using the same, shopworn "information operations" and violent tactics to try to intimidate others regarding its attempt to expand its territory; this does not help Israel's future. Some Israelis are already bailing out. I cannot put my finger on the article, but I have read that quite a large number have already moved to the U.S.

[mo]

Paul Escobar,
In regards to the first question, Hamas would never have become involved in that conflict. The cost-benefit of that would have been stupid, and if theres one thing the Resistance Axis has shown it does not do is stupid. Even Hizballahs threat is questioned in any Israel-Iran fight.

In regards to the second question, both Iran and Hizballah have made it clear that the Palestinian struggle takes precedence over political stances and that Hamas's decision to oppose Assad will not reflect on their support. If Hamas themselves choose to stop recieving support, then the likes of Islamic Jihad will not. And it was IJ that did most of the missile firing in Gaza.
If Hamas was to try to actively block any Iranian support of other groups, then prepare for yet any violent fracture amongst the Palestinians.

[Walrus]

The problem with aggression by Israel is that they have everything to lose and nothing to gain, not so the Palestinians.

Think about it. The Israeli public image is of an urbane and cultured society set In a sea of Dirty effing goat herders. That image took a battering as a result of Cast Lead.

Then there is the Jewish diaspora view. Not so nice either.

Does anyone these days really want to send their little expensively educated kid to Israell to get blown up by Hamas or Hezbollah? Do we start our new biotech company within rocket range of Lebanon? Think of the risks we are taking darlinks!

[jonst]

You think it would be just the "Lukudniks" who would retaliate in that manner? If so, I would respectfully suggest you are deeply misinformed. You want to conjure up apocalyptic visions (and apocalyptic responses) within Jews of all nations and ideologies....mention gas and death in the same sentence.

[jonst]

Did you note Prof, how Obama was able to pronounce--with no apparent irony--that no nation could tolerate missiles raining down on it people from outside its borders?

I was impressed that even someone of Chris Hayes' bent could ignore the irony. So you know the rest of the mainstream media would ignore it.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Good question. Nuking Gaza? What about the fallout drifting into Israel?

Nuking Iran? Maybe?

The Israelis know very well they are seriously vulnerable to chemical attack which can be delivered in many ways. The hysteria about a non-existant nuclear threat from Iran is just hysteria and propaganda. Pakistan does have nukes, though.

The Israelis cannot defend against chemical weapons...how much warning and time is there for people to put on masks and all that?

They know this very well.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Yes, and they are very vulnerable to chemical weapons...

[Matthew]

That's how you get peace. When the Zionists know that they will suffer horrendous casualties from their own wars of a choice, they will cease attacking their neighbors.

Deterrence works.

[Cjb287]

Would a twin front war on Israel draw the foreign fighters now fighting Assad away from Syria and into Israel, in effect making it a three front war? I'm thinking most especially about al-Nusra, but there are assuredly others. The prospect of smiting Israel must surely be more appealing than settling for the ouster of a secular autocrat...

[mo]

Cjb287,
Those you speak of have never, not once laid a finger on Israel. The Caliphate is their goal and as those in Syria have demonstrated they are willing to have peace with Israel to secure that goal

[Patrick D]

Colonel,

I know that Israeli gov't was "pleased" at the emergence of HAMAS at a minimum and heard spotty assertions that they assisted its emergence through actions that range from cracking down on the PLO while giving HAMAS freedom to grow to actually providing funds to HAMAS.

Any reliable sources for the details behind this?

[confusedponderer]

Mo,
... peace with Israel to secure that goal - for now. After all, if they are truly Islamist, thrn the control of Al Aqsa by Israel must be anathema to them. Every cooperation Israel may get from these guys is temporary.

Of all the 'allies' Israel might choose from, this is about the worst and stupidest choice of them all.