The missing white vote in 2012

IMO the punditry is missing one of the available analytic "angles" in thinking about this election.  IMO a lot of rural white people may have stayed home rather than vote for either BHO or Romney.  In their eagerness to see the US become a "multi-culti" kaleidoscope of peoples and groups the media are beating the drum hard for the GOP to turn itself inside out to become a slightly more rightward leaning version of the Democratic Party.  The 2% decline in the share of votes cast by white people is cited as evidence of inevitable decline of  caucasian dominance in the USA.

That may be a flawed analysis.

I think a lot of white people in all those red counties pictured above hold deeply racist views concerning BHO.  Some of them may have voted for him in 2008 out of fascination with the novelty of the idea of him and as a mute protest against the domestic and foreign policy misrule of the Bush administrations.  The financial disaster into which we were clearly falling probably added to willingness to experiment with the Obama idea.  After  4 years of his government and endless "cracker barrel" discussion of the notion of a n---r president, many of these folks were completely and irreversibly against him.  If you don't think that is true, you need to get out of the blue areas on the map above and talk to people.  You may be afraid to do that and you may be justified in feeling that way.  In my years as a business consultant I learned not to take foreign clients out into the countryside for meetings, recreation, etc.  In general they perceived a profound difference in the attitude of the rural people and wanted to flee back to the blue enclaves.

At the same time, the Mormon factor was in play in this election.  The polling of rural people, especially white evengelical Protestants is generally all about talking to people who have overcome their doubts about Mormons as Christians.  The polling is not extensive among those who would not vote for someone who they think belongs to a secretive, non-Christian cult.  Those people probably do not want to talk about this to poll takers.

If you seek a net effect from my hypotheses, it seems likely to me that the conclusion reached by quite a few citizens was that they preferred not to vote at all rather than vote for either of two unacceptable candidates.

That effect may have played a significant role in the result.  the Republicans should be careful in doing their "homework" before they start making themselves into Democrats.  The potential white vote out there in "flyover" country may be larger than what was showing in this election.  pl  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

Comments

[bt]

All true. But Remember this, Obama is probably going to be the last Black (or 1/2 black) candidate for a good while. Many of those flyover whites could again vote democrat, given the chance.

I think the idea that the mormon/negro thing was a wash and depressed a certain sort of voter from voting for either of these candidates sounds right, and those 'missing' white voters aren't magically 100% GOP just because they are white.

The basic fact that the GOP needs some kind of overhaul still stands. Especially as the current GOP voter pool tends to be an older and therefore shrinking pot of voters.

[mbrenner]

Colonel

Laurels for speaking frankly about the unspeakable. Living in Texas what you say on both counts seems self-evident. I shudder to think what will happen when, before too long, male whites become a minority of a minority.

One bit of conventional wisdom does seem valid. The growing Latino vote will remain overwhelmingly Democratic. Two groups in the United States have always been shrewdest about voting their socio-economic interests: the rich and blacks. Latinos have now joined them. They are far more sensitive than working class whites as to what a Romney has in store for them; when they saw his 47% speech, they knew exactly who he is and what he meant. Absurdly, there are millions of white common folk who fantasize themselves as destined to be part of the 1% but just have had a bit of hard luck.

[turcopolier]

mbrenner

"One bit of conventional wisdom does seem valid. The growing Latino vote will remain overwhelmingly Democratic."

I am not so sure about this. Blacks and Latinos have little in common culturally. It seems likely to me that Latinos will prosper economically because of the behavior I see in them in the workplace and the solidity of their families. As that happens I think they are likely to become more conservative politically. This is the kind of behavior one sees in Asian immigrants in 2nd and 3rd generations. pl

[turcopolier]

bt

I question how many whites in the red counties have ever voted blue. pl

[The Twisted Genius]

PL,

Your points are valid and, like Abu Sinan, I've also seen the evidence throughout Virginia. However, the map you chose paints a very skewed view of reality. The data that this map seeks to represent is population, but it does not take population density into account. A more accurate, but still far from perfect, map is at this link. The cartographer's description makes the same point I'm making.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2012_Electoral_Vote-Cartogram.png

I studied cartography, although just to help me make maps for the orienteering club. I learned all the tricks. A cartographer can be extremely manipulative by choosing what data to represent and how to represent it. But you know all this.

[turcopolier]

TTG

I had seen that pictogram. I don't think it is useful because it depicts states as uniformly one thing or another. That is untrue and that is the point of the "by counties" map. The hidden truth is that the rural population is alienated from the Democratic Party wherever that population is white. What we have is a confrontation between town and country. pl

[MRW]

I think a lot of white people in all those red counties pictured above hold deeply racist views concerning BHO.

Bang on. Obama's 2008 election brought 'em all out. Because they were able to get away with so much in the last four years--Islamophobia is a proxy for it; remember all the Black political and sports figures who converted to Islam? Mohammed Ali anyone?--they just went right on trampling: rape is fine, torture's no big deal, women get back in the kitchen you aint gonna earn what I can, and then the great intangibles of the non-existent volumes of Sharia Law as defined by Geller/Spencer/Gaffney, et al cuz the Prophet didn't write them, and the tutti frutti of all the social bugaboos of immigration, same-sex marriage, and abortion.

The 2012 GOP had CC&Rs for every aspect of American life and every American except for their sniveling small-minded economy-destroying selves.

[The Twisted Genius]

PL,

I agree that we have is a confrontation between town and country. I can see it in blue Fredericksburg floating in a sea of red surrounding counties. I also saw it in upstate New York. The political attitudes in northern New York are much closer to those in rural Virginia than to those in NYC. The real meaning of this is whether the trend will be a flight from urban areas or to urban areas. Will the city folk outnumber the country folk? I'd like to see a "by counties" map using the same techniques as used in the map depicting political ad spending.

[Mark Gold]

Your points ring true, but the GOP will have to lose the edge of racism that came out in this campaign over immigration. Look at how GWB was able to get almost 40% of Latino vote but dropped to 27% for Romney. I think Romney lost the Latino vote in the primary with his "self-deportation" remark when debating Perry. Never got it back. (Asians voted even less for Romney, again should be natural fit for GOP but not making the appeal). It will take more than just a pretty face like Rubio but actual policy change for GOP to make up this ground...not sure will happen before 2016.

[Will Reks]

You're right that it's about rural versus the urban areas. The Democrats won because they racked up big votes in the urban areas and did about 50/50 in the suburbs.

This isn't FDR's Democratic party. Dems can't compete or choose not to compete for the rural voter. LBJ was right when he said the South was lost to his party for a generation. Well, not just the South as we have seen. It's not purely a race thing but that's part of it.

[sleepy]

As a southerner transplanted to northern/northeastern Iowa, I always found it interesting that my overwhelmingly white and rural neck of the woods has consistently voted democratic generally, and specifically for Obama while the vast majority of such counties nationwide have voted entirely differently.

Here, we have counties of 18,000 with a county seat of 8,000 voting 60/40 for Obama.

I don't have any explanation, just interest.

[JohnH]

Regarding the Latino vote, culturally they have long experience with robber barons, domestic and foreign. They tend to be sensitized to Romney's ilk in ways that most North Americans are not. Their experience as immigrants tends to reinforce this.

In addition, there is a strong current of social justice which, though repressed for ages, has surfaced throughout Latin America in the last two decades, resulting in more democratic governments.

Republicans' best hope is that the longer the Latino experience here, the more assimilated second and third generations become, they more likely it becomes that they can be seduced by Ayn Rand and the kool-aid Republicans are peddling.

[jdledell]

Pat - You have to figure in to Romney's 2% drop in white votes the fact that Libertarian Gary Johnson captured 1% of the vote (1.2 million) and my guess is most of that was white and rural given the state by state percentages he won.

[zanzibar]

Thanks Pat.

Your analysis makes the most sense. The Fox news crowd focused on confirmation bias during the lead up to the vote. They looked like cartoon characters on election night. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are having a field day. Bill O'Reilly's post-election analysis also seems to be rather lazy but feeds the confirmation bias of their audience. It's good news for Marco Rubio - he probably get's some tail winds within the party.

The Republicans also scored an "own goal" when it came to the Senate. They knocked out sober Dick Lugar for a 30 yr old and got taken to the cleaners for example. And the other two that scared many women voters.

I am curious how the youth voted in Red counties. It seems nationally they went for the Democrats.

[mbrenner]

Colonel

True - insofar as one reason why many well established Latinoa voted Repulican was precisely to distinguish themselves from blacks. I do not foresee a coalition at all, just a separate calculation as to where they stand relative to the prople and ideas who dominate the Republican Party. In addition, the aspiration to see a Latino president a la Obama can only be imagined as a Democrat. Foget Rubio - a Cuban. Forget Ted Cruz here in Texas who long has been part of the white establishment and has absolutely nothing to offer 90% of Latinos except sweat, tears and police stops.

[Trent]

"If you seek a net effect from my hypotheses, it seems likely to me that the conclusion reached by quite a few citizens was that they preferred not to vote at all rather than vote for either of two unacceptable candidates."
I listen to evangelical financial advisor Dave Ramsey almost daily. He leans to the right. He tries to avoid partisan endorsements as best he can, while espousing conservative principles. Before the election he came out with an explicit endorsement for Romney targeted at those staying home. He spoke repeatedly about the lesser of two evils. Could the Mormonism have caused widespread, effective apathy among the evangelicals? Could it have neutralized the racism detailed above?
A new Grateful Dead soundboard from September 1976 just arrived and plays in the background as I read this correspondence. Wave that flag.

[Fred]

"...the rural population is alienated from the Democratic Party wherever that population is white. What we have is a confrontation between town and country."

I think this is absolutely true in Michigan and the MDP either doesn't understand that basic fact or doesn't care. (I lean toward the latter opinion). It is definitely time for new party leadership in this state, though I don't see that happening.

[The Moar You Know]

I grew up and still live in San Diego, was raised with Mexicans my whole life and I speak the language fluently. You are right, with qualifications - you're more right than you know. Two points:

1. Blacks and Latinos have zilch in common and tend to not like each other very much. In fact, truth be told, they despise each other. Their interests right now converge because of an accident of history and bigotry. That will not be the case for long.

2. I've been saying this for years even though it is not in my best interests as a liberal who'd like the nation to move in a more liberal direction: Latinos are THE natural constituency for the GOP. Right now, not two generations after arrival. They'd be GOP voters today, the minute they set foot here if not for the idiots who won't stop slandering them as job-stealing, disease-carrying gangbanging freeloaders come here to launch the end of civilization and steal back the American West. Like anyone else, Latinos insist on respect. Insist on it. They'll do the shittiest jobs and get paid nothing and never squawk, but you must respect them. Give it and they're yours. Pull crap like we've seen for the last thirty years from the GOP and you get...the results we got.

They work hard. Working hard is the number one virtue in Hispanic culture. They regard abortion as unthinkable. They're very religious, and are just fine with religion in the schools and in the public square. They expect and like authoritarian leaders. They believe the rich have a right to be rich, and that if someone is poor it's their own fault. They think charity and not welfare is the way to go (unlike Anglo Americans, they actually practice this and don't just pay lip service to it - if you break down by the side of the road here, the car that pulls over to help will be a Hispanic family every single time). They put the hammer down on criminals who prey on them, the criminals usually pray for the police to get on the scene before the mob finishes the job (witness what happened when they caught Richard Ramirez, the Night Stalker murderer in L.A. - the people who caught him came very close to killing him). They have zero tolerance for freeloaders, addicts and bums from their communities. They have strong families and take care of their own.

The GOP could have the Latinos on board and get the majority of their votes by 2020-2024 at the latest, if they'd just stop with the bashing. Jeb, for example, knows this and has for a long time, but he's been a lone voice in the wilderness.

Fortunately for my political interests, that isn't going to happen. Too many gullible folks bought the lies. Too many people assumed that dark skin is bad no matter the content or interests of the human being inside it. Takes a long time to get rid of that baggage.

But it should happen. It needs to. They're good people and deserve to be treated as such.

[Phil Cattar]

Al,If you look behind the numbers you might think differently.A lot of the 'Red States"are filled with retires from up north who get SS checks and Medicare and government pension checks.Also there are far more military retirees per capita living in the red states.So what looks like a transfer of funds from the hard working industrial north to us deadbeats down south is in reality not.And of course a lot of that Blue State money is going to non whites in the South.Not exactly Romney supporters.I would be very interested to see what the breakdown is of the per capita contribution to our armed services from the red states compared to the blue states.Especially in the more dangerous units of the services.It is only anecdotal, but from my 3 years in the Army infantry I believe the contribution to our more dangerous units from the red states ,per capita,far exceeds the blue state contribution................more battles were fought in South Carolina in the the war of 1776 than all the other colonies combined..........read Senator James webb's book "Born Fighting" about the contribution of the the Scot/Irish in fighting America's wars.The Scot/Irish mostly settled in southern red states.....................The real transfer of wealth is the transfer of the hard work of good ol boys in Alabama,Tenn So Carolina etc. who are working in the auto factories for far less than than the union guys up in the blue states.The north has been exploting the south since the"The War Between the States".

[Medicine Man]

A combination of factors I think. 1) Some portion of deeply conservative voters came to the same conclusion of Romney that Tyler did. 2) Some portion of moderately conservative voters observed that Obama is basically a Rockefeller Republican -- and a known factor -- like the Colonel observed not too long ago. 3) Some portion of the deeply religious voters gave voting for a Mormon a swerve.

Or maybe Romney was just a poor candidate. The person at the top of the ticket does matter, after all.

[jmc5588]

I lived in rural upstate NY for 8 years (78-86) just north of Ithaca. The political situation there was as you describe. Ithaca itself was bright blue, surrounded by an ocean of dark red. But it was more a town-country thing than overt racism. We had a lot of migrant laborers come through each year (Haitians and Hispanics) to help pick corn, and I never heard anything bad about them from my neighbors, or from those of them I met concerning their treatment.
During my time there, I think maybe 1982, Ed Koch, then the mayor of NYC and thinking of bigger things, made a pseudo campaign stop at a farm just down the road from where I lived. I've never seen a fish more out of water since the Calvin Coolidge war bonnet photo. Utterly hilarious.

[turcopolier]

MM

You don't like the racism accusation I see. pl

[elkern]

...wide & high...

venue?

[herb]

"...the hard work of good ol boys in Alabama, Tenn S Carolina etc. who are working in the auto factories for far less than than the union guys up in the blues states.The north has been exploiting the south...."

This is sarcasm, right? Why is it "the north"'s fault that whites in southern states would rather shoot themselves in the head than unionize? Have you ever been to Michigan, or the former auto plant towns of rural Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Illinois? These places are basically now going feral. Blocks and blocks of abandoned homes and factories abandoned and reverting to nature. I travel to these places for work. The civic leader classes, which at one time actually cared about the areas they lived in, now care little, hoping GM will transfer them someplace "real" like one of those shiny new tax-increment financed southern plants. I defy you to buy a good steak in someplace like Lima, OH, which when you see the buildings of downtown must have once had a thriving business social class which invested in their town.

[agin' cajun]

I agree with you on many things, here is where we differ.

"The Republicans defeated themselves"
This statement gives no credit to the people who have refused to step out of the way for the Fundie-Neocon bulldozers to do their work. It takes a good bit of guts to "Go against God". Give the opposition some credit. Why are the Repubs self-defeating? Because they are what they are. It's not past history or media perception alone that defines them, it's their actions.
"allowing themselves to become a closed system" They did not allow this, they bathed in it and relished the experience. It was intentional.

My point is once again, the traditional Republican Party as us old farts define it, no longer exists and IMO will not return. The take over began in earnest the night St. Ronnie was awakened and coaxed back into the convention center in the wee hours to accept GHWB as his running mate. And yes, GHWB had already made his pact with the Fundies. The fruitcakes still hold control of the console and will not cede the joy stick. If you know any true Fundies, ask them their take on Tuesday's outcome. The answer I have gotten so far is that God is testing them. I do not see a softening of their resolve or a willingness to accept any change from within. That would go against "Gods Will". Compromise? Surely you jest.

People like Lance Priebus, Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove enlisted and embraced the fundie/racist hordes, helped organize and fund them. The spin masters never intended for the mob to actually take over. Many Fundies believe in their hearts that they are doing God's work. I fear their leadership is just as dishonest as the purely political spin masters.

I could go on but my "to do list" has suffered recently. I'll close with this. W.F. Buckely helped purge the John Birchers out of the GOP. The current rendition of the GOP has rolled out a red carpet for such thinking. Barry Goldwater stated on the record that the Religious Right scared him and he actively resisted them.

Both of those guys are gone. Others of similar thinking have already been purged(Chuck Hagel) Do you see anyone of stature within the present GOP who would have the balls and gravitas to return the GOP engine back on the rails of sanity? I hope you do, I would still most likely not agree often, but I would sleep much better with the reincarnation of Howard Baker Sr..........etc.